New Thoughts and Revisions After a Few Months of Playing

[U-505]

@rockrobinoff:

In short, do you want to risk what could potentially be the whole game on 70% chance of success, where even if you win (admittedly, it quite nice) its not game deciding, and you have other perfectly good and less risky options?*

If you do not even attempt to attack Egypt, Italy’s growth in Africa will be stunted, at least, if they are not outright ejected from Africa altogether in the first few turns.

Russia

I like 10 inf first buy when Germany ignores Africa, and pulling out of Karelia (typically into Finland, but not always) when G goes North. If G goes for Africa, the pressure is slightly off, so a couple of tanks (or maybe a plane) and inf. I also like propping up China with Russia if Germany is not 100% focused on Russia. Such options become available when Germany attacks Egypt, or buys Navy.

I have come to the conclusion, definitely not an original idea, that Russia should be immediately aggressive toward Germany with the goal being to make Germany taking Karelia a bloodbath that they can’t afford. If Germany is allowed to earn near 50 or better consistently in the early part of the game, it becomes nearly impossible for the Allies to slow them down without leaving Italy and Japan largely unchecked.

My builds would depend on whether it would be possible to defend Karelia from a G2 attack and how many casualties Germany took in their opening attacks. I’m leaning toward 5 inf, 3 arm if Germany moves heavily into Bst and 5 inf, 1 arm, 1 fig if they didn’t and you can try to hold Karelia. Although, there is a special place in my heart for the 6 inf, 1 bmb build with the bomber placed in Cauc to threaten an undefended Japanese TP in sz38(props to axis_roll for that one).

I, too, like to prop up China with the Russians or at least to try to hold the line in Chinghai using mostly the Siberian inf(sometimes more) with a small 3 inf force acting as rear guard to conduct a fighting withdrawal to prevent Japan from just blitzing through all of those territories.

KIF?

My plan is usually to neuter Italy in Africa and then go after Germany.

I have no idea if USA can split it’s attention between the Atlantic and the Pacific. Perhaps it has to?

The only possible split is to harrass the Pacific with a small force(most of which is already there) to tie up a larger portion of the Japanese fleet and everything else being spent in the Atlantic for the rest of the game. Other than that, pick one side and go with it. Splitting the US income is usually wasteful.

[rockrobinoff]

@U-505:

If you do not even attempt to attack Egypt, Italy’s growth in Africa will be stunted, at least, if they are not outright ejected from Africa altogether in the first few turns.

Do you agree though, that if the attack on Egypt fails (all G units lost, British fighter intact) that the Axis position is close to breaking already?

[Lucifer]

@rockrobinoff:

Do you agree though, that if the attack on Egypt fails (all G units lost, British fighter intact) that the Axis position is close to breaking already?

Imo if Germany is left with 1-2 tanks in Egy G1, then axis have huge advantage, if every other battle was average.

[rockrobinoff]

@Subotai:

Imo if Germany is left with 1-2 tanks in Egy G1, then axis have huge advantage, if every other battle was average.

And if they lose?

[Lucifer]

@rockrobinoff:

@Subotai:

Imo if Germany is left with 1-2 tanks in Egy G1, then axis have huge advantage, if every other battle was average.

And if they lose?

All things being equal, then I would say allies are favored to win the game.

This is the reason why axis are favored in 41 with NOs, in LL. It could be different in ADS. Its too soon to say for sure.
The Egy battle is 60% (ADS) for 1 German tank left. I’m gonna try some games w/o the Egy battle in ADS games.

[rockrobinoff]

@Subotai:

All things being equal, then I would say allies are favored to win the game.

That’s my assessment as well. There seems to be other, less risky, targets that should give Axis a good game.

[U-505]

@rockrobinoff:

@U-505:

If you do not even attempt to attack Egypt, Italy’s growth in Africa will be stunted, at least, if they are not outright ejected from Africa altogether in the first few turns.

Do you agree though, that if the attack on Egypt fails (all G units lost, British fighter intact) that the Axis position is close to breaking already?

No. Although, their position is certainly poor. But, their position would be poor if they never attacked Egypt in the first place so they might as well go for it.

[axis_roll]

@rockrobinoff:

@Subotai:

All things being equal, then I would say allies are favored to win the game.

That’s my assessment as well. There seems to be other, less risky, targets that should give Axis a good game.

I don’t think losing the Egypt G1 battle is a loss for the axis.  Sure it’s nice but not necessary for Germany to take Egypt G1.  That is a small hurdle for the Axis to overcome.  Egypt and Transjordan will fall to Italy (I1), and then Africa falls after 3 rounds instead of 2.

Alot depends on what Germany is doing on G1 (buy, moves, battle outcomes)

[jsp4563]

I tend to agree with U-505, you might as well attack Egypt.  IMO not attacking is a worse outcome than attacking and losing.  Even if you lose, you will have normally destroyed all the UK ground forces and Italy can take Egypt and TJ I1 giving them both their NO’s (assuming no UK attack on Algeria).  Germany has a 75% chance of taking Egypt and an 81% chance of destroying all UK units including the fighter.

[Lucifer]

I would think it’s not a wise decision to take the bmr as casuality, any players who do this?

And it’s 60% to take Egy G1 with 1 tank left, (or more units), not 75% unless you take the bmr as casuality. This is in ADS, I reckon most of you play ADS not LL.

http://frood.net/aacalc/?mustland=0&abortratio=0&saveunits=0&strafeunits=0&aInf=2&aArt=1&aArm=2&aFig=&aBom=1&aTra=&aSub=&aDes=&aCar=&aBat=&adBat=&dInf=2&dArt=1&dArm=1&dFig=1&dBom=&dTra=&dSub=&dDes=&dCar=&dBat=&ddBat=&ool_att=Bat-Inf-Art-Arm-Tra-Sub-SSub-Fig-JFig-Des-Bom-HBom-Car-dBat&ool_def=Bat-Inf-Art-Arm-Tra-Sub-SSub-Bom-HBom-Des-Fig-JFig-Car-dBat&battle=Run&rounds=&reps=5000&luck=pure&ruleset=Revised&gameid=&password=&turnid=&territory=&round=1&pbem=

[jsp4563]

@Subotai:

I would think it’s not a wise decision to take the bmr as casuality, any players who do this?

And it’s 60% to take Egy G1 with 1 tank left, (or more units), not 75% unless you take the bmr as casuality. This is in ADS, I reckon most of you play ADS not LL.

http://frood.net/aacalc/?mustland=0&abortratio=0&saveunits=0&strafeunits=0&aInf=2&aArt=1&aArm=2&aFig=&aBom=1&aTra=&aSub=&aDes=&aCar=&aBat=&adBat=&dInf=2&dArt=1&dArm=1&dFig=1&dBom=&dTra=&dSub=&dDes=&dCar=&dBat=&ddBat=&ool_att=Bat-Inf-Art-Arm-Tra-Sub-SSub-Fig-JFig-Des-Bom-HBom-Car-dBat&ool_def=Bat-Inf-Art-Arm-Tra-Sub-SSub-Bom-HBom-Des-Fig-JFig-Car-dBat&battle=Run&rounds=&reps=5000&luck=pure&ruleset=Revised&gameid=&password=&turnid=&territory=&round=1&pbem=

Agreed, I would not take the bomber as a casualty.  I’d withdraw from the battle rather than risk losing it.  The point is to weaken if not take Egypt to open up Africa for Italy.

[Woodstock]

I always somewhat like it if Ger loses to the British in Egypt. This way I know for sure that those 2 IPC’s are going to Italy, who could use it  alot better then the already not so poor Germans.
Sure. UK may have it’s NO for 1 more round, but so what?

[jsp4563]

@Woodstock:

I always somewhat like it if Ger loses to the British in Egypt. This way I know for sure that those 2 IPC’s are going to Italy, who could use it  alot better then the already not so poor Germans.
Sure. UK may have it’s NO for 1 more round, but so what?

I tend to agree.  I’m trying out a new tactic, sending the bomber agains the UK BB in SZ2 with the 2 SS from SZ7, and attacking Egypt with the usual ground forces.  The Egypt battle only has a 30% chance of success but the most likely outcome is UK holds with just the fighter.  Ripe picking for Italy, and UK is down a BB and TP from SZ2.

[Woodstock]

@Emperor:

@Woodstock:

I always somewhat like it if Ger loses to the British in Egypt. This way I know for sure that those 2 IPC’s are going to Italy, who could use it  alot better then the already not so poor Germans.
Sure. UK may have it’s NO for 1 more round, but so what?

I tend to agree.  I’m trying out a new tactic, sending the bomber agains the UK BB in SZ2 with the 2 SS from SZ7, and attacking Egypt with the usual ground forces.  The Egypt battle only has a 30% chance of success but the most likely outcome is UK holds with just the fighter.  Ripe picking for Italy, and UK is down a BB and TP from SZ2.

I usually send only 1 sub to SZ2, combined with a fighter and the bomber, and the other sub combined with 1 fighter to SZ12.

If Egypt holds the fighter + the fleet off the Med is intact, then the Italian fleet could be toast on UK1.

SZ2 should cost you the sub (so what), and maybe 1 fighter (Germany can handle that), SZ12 might cost you a sub (again, so what) and the fighter (again, Germany can spare it), but the Italian fleet survives.

Also, if you take only 1 ship from SZ12, that’s enough already to save the Italian navy.
(So if your sub is killed in the first round, and a british ship is destroyed, just retreat).

This way, Italian fleet is safe, Egypt should be in German hands or else in Italy on IT1, plus you still get that juicy BB.

[Lynxes]

So, we have 3 options for G1, and I don’t count not attacking EGY at all which I wouldn’t recommend! In order of risk to the Axis:

1. 2 sub, 1 ftr vs. sz2; 2 inf, 1 art, 2 arm, 1 bom vs. Egypt. This saves the Italian fleet in around 80% of cases, since you’ll be destroying that fighter. It is risky though since you’ll be in dire straits if you don’t!
2. 2 sub, 1 ftr vs. sz12; 2 inf, 1 art, 2 arm, 1 bom vs. Egypt. Attacking sz12 at the same time as Egypt will lessen the risk to the Italian navy in case of a failed Egypt attack. But UK gets to keep its battleship, a stronger backbone for the Royal navy.
3. 1 sub, 1 ftr, 1 bom vs. sz2; 1 sub, 2 ftr vs. sz12; 2 inf, 1 art, 2 arm vs. Egypt. The likely result here is that you simply reduce the UK forces in Egypt to 1 ftr or 1 arm+1 ftr, but the good thing is you will probably wipe out all heavy naval units. On ITA1, 3 inf, 1 arm, 1 ftr + shore bombardment will be able to deal with any UK defence of Egypt if the Japs have done their job and sunk the Indian fleet. The main drawback here is that UK gets one extra turn of NO bonus and Italy will have to wait a turn for getting both NOs.

(Bardoly, thanks for the correction!  :wink: )

[Bardoly]

@Lynxes:

So, we have 3 options for G1, and I don’t count not attacking EGY at all which I wouldn’t recommend! In order of risk to the Axis:

1. 2 sub, 1 ftr vs. sz2; 2 inf, 1 art, 1 arm, 1 bom vs. Egypt. This saves the Italian fleet in around 80% of cases, since you’ll be destroying that fighter. It is risky though since you’ll be in dire straits if you don’t!
2. 2 sub, 1 ftr vs. sz12; 2 inf, 1 art, 1 arm, 1 bom vs. Egypt. Attacking sz12 at the same time as Egypt will lessen the risk to the Italian navy in case of a failed Egypt attack. But UK gets to keep its battleship, a stronger backbone for the Royal navy.
3. 1 sub, 1 ftr, 1 bom vs. sz2; 1 sub, 2 ftr vs. sz12; 2 inf, 1 art, 1 arm vs. Egypt. The likely result here is that you simply reduce the UK forces in Egypt to 1 ftr or 1 arm+1 ftr, but the good thing is you will probably wipe out all heavy naval units. On ITA1, 3 inf, 1 arm, 1 ftr + shore bombardment will be able to deal with any UK defence of Egypt if the Japs have done their job and sunk the Indian fleet. The main drawback here is that UK gets one extra turn of NO bonus and Italy will have to wait a turn for getting both NOs.

Actually, Germany brings 2 arm(the second one from France) to Egypt, not 1 as your post says

[jsp4563]

I like sending the 2 subs to SZ2 because they get the free shot.  I send 3 fighters against the fleet in SZ12 and Ground forces to Egypt.

In my current game this has worked out pretty well with a CV+DD purchase on G1 and a TP, DD, CA on G2, and added a 2nd BB for Italy on I2, the axis rule the seas, and Germany is entrenched in Karelia.  Those pesky allies have a huge bomber fleet which is worrisome, we’ll see how it works out.

EMvIvanova_AA50-41-12_03Cj.aam

[Woodstock]

@Emperor:

I like sending the 2 subs to SZ2 because they get the free shot.  I send 3 fighters against the fleet in SZ12 and Ground forces to Egypt.

In my current game this has worked out pretty well with a CV+DD purchase on G1 and a TP, DD, CA on G2, and added a 2nd BB for Italy on I2, the axis rule the seas, and Germany is entrenched in Karelia.  Those pesky allies have a huge bomber fleet which is worrisome, we’ll see how it works out.

I like your style MOllari. Finally someone openly admitting investing in the Baltic is worthwile :)
And let the Bombers come. If the board looks like anything I think it should look, that’s all the Allie can send in against your fleet.

However, Axis >>>>> Allies money wise, so even if they blow up your entire fleet, they will definitely lose some bombers aswell…but you are in the position to easily replenish the forces, whereas the Allies can’t.

[jsp4563]

@Woodstock:

@Emperor:

I like sending the 2 subs to SZ2 because they get the free shot.  I send 3 fighters against the fleet in SZ12 and Ground forces to Egypt.

In my current game this has worked out pretty well with a CV+DD purchase on G1 and a TP, DD, CA on G2, and added a 2nd BB for Italy on I2, the axis rule the seas, and Germany is entrenched in Karelia.  Those pesky allies have a huge bomber fleet which is worrisome, we’ll see how it works out.

I like your style MOllari. Finally someone openly admitting investing in the Baltic is worthwile :)
And let the Bombers come. If the board looks like anything I think it should look, that’s all the Allie can send in against your fleet.

However, Axis >>>>> Allies money wise, so even if they blow up your entire fleet, they will definitely lose some bombers aswell…but you are in the position to easily replenish the forces, whereas the Allies can’t.

Thanks!  UK will no doubt sink my baltic fleet this turn with 4fgt, 3bmb, the most likely outcome 2-3 bombers left.  That’s ok, it served it’s purpose which was to take and hold Karelia G2.  Reinforced on G3 so it now has 6inf, 2art, 7tnk, 1fgt.

[Woodstock]

And Japan is making it’s way o Russia aswell I assume, so that should be another Axis win ;-)