New Thoughts and Revisions After a Few Months of Playing

[rockrobinoff]

Assuming all optionals on. Dice.

Egypt

On G1, Germany is a bit better than 2-1 (70%) to take Egypt. Aside from opportunity costs (those units fighting elsewhere) we have the cost of failure (30%). Simply put, it blows big time. At worst, Germany loses 2 tanks, 2 inf, 1 art, and 1 bomber, and fails to take Egypt (and kills some amount of British units, but not the fighter).

The consequences of such a failure, involving expensive units (including a German transport now vulnerable to a British plane) are dire, and for what?

If successful (the average result of the Egypt battle is for Germany to survive with 1 tank and 1 bomber, losing 18 bucks in units for 25 bucks in units, plus Egypt(2), for a 9 IPC gain). Denying the 5 IPC National Objective to Britain is only potential, given the 2 inf in Trans Jordan are a favourite over the lone tank in Egypt (54%, and UK could conceivably commit it’s bomber as well).

The success helps Italy no doubt, as Egypt is important to their economy. However, Italy can be in Egypt on Italy2 (close to forced).

Also, if the fight goes very well in Egypt, and Germany survives with both tanks, Germany can run all over Africa with them, and double team on the two British infantry, which would normally be a thorn in German expansion.

So, what are the costs in terms of opportunity? On G1, the German bomber won’t be blowing up British boats. A sub and a couple of planes at SZ 12 and SZ 2 is very tidy, whereas other combinations invite disaster (even if favourable) or cost planes in terms of hits (undesirable) or leave sinkable boats alone (unthinkable). The transport and Africa core can be used against the Russians (or to defend france, freeing up units there).

In short, do you want to risk what could potentially be the whole game on 70% chance of success, where even if you win (admittedly, it quite nice) its not game deciding, and you have other perfectly good and less risky options?*

Japan

Japan is simple. Expand quicky. Be efficient. Blow up china. Take India.

That said, it is very hard to generalize beyond that, because after J1 (very simple if you ask me) everything depends on America.

Russia

I like 10 inf first buy when Germany ignores Africa, and pulling out of Karelia (typically into Finland, but not always) when G goes North. If G goes for Africa, the pressure is slightly off, so a couple of tanks (or maybe a plane) and inf. I also like propping up China with Russia if Germany is not 100% focused on Russia. Such options become available when Germany attacks Egypt, or buys Navy.

The Rest

KIF?

I have no idea if USA can split it’s attention between the Atlantic and the Pacific. Perhaps it has to?

Hard game.

• if I was playing someone a lot better than I was, I would seriously consider going after Egypt.

[bugoo]

One of my thoughts after playing allies is france is bait that is not worth it.  Unless it can be taken, and held, nine times out of ten it is not worth trading.  Your better off going for africa drops until you secure it and/or to meet japan in the middle near persia, or taking the northern route of finland and just slowly advancing while each turn dropping in more and more units.  This also allows you to protect northern russia, and makes it oh so easy for russia to grab its second NO. Also, building up to effectively SBR of Germany can be worth it with as little as a bomber or two a turn for UK/US.  Lastly, the clock is ticking on the allies this game, you have about 3-4 turns to really get something going, or russia become worthless.

And in my opinion, if axis do not go after egypt G1 italy will never have both NOs at any point in the game.  Still, I don’t know if it is worth it or not.

[rockrobinoff]

@bugoo:

One of my thoughts after playing allies is france is bait that is not worth it.  Unless it can be taken, and held, nine times out of ten it is not worth trading.

Not worth trading at 11 bucks a pop?

[Lucifer]

If Allies got Africa then France is worth trading, and UK can SBR Germany, and/or send units every second rnd to Africa. The problem for UK is that often Germany has a lot of air units, then UK will have to spend a lot if they want to build 2 fleets for trading both Poland and/or landing in Norway/Finland, and/or trading France and at the same time send units to Africa.

If allies go all out KGF then either one of the UK or US can trade France, the other power can threaten Italy and the Mediterranean.

[U-505]

@rockrobinoff:

In short, do you want to risk what could potentially be the whole game on 70% chance of success, where even if you win (admittedly, it quite nice) its not game deciding, and you have other perfectly good and less risky options?*

If you do not even attempt to attack Egypt, Italy’s growth in Africa will be stunted, at least, if they are not outright ejected from Africa altogether in the first few turns.

Russia

I like 10 inf first buy when Germany ignores Africa, and pulling out of Karelia (typically into Finland, but not always) when G goes North. If G goes for Africa, the pressure is slightly off, so a couple of tanks (or maybe a plane) and inf. I also like propping up China with Russia if Germany is not 100% focused on Russia. Such options become available when Germany attacks Egypt, or buys Navy.

I have come to the conclusion, definitely not an original idea, that Russia should be immediately aggressive toward Germany with the goal being to make Germany taking Karelia a bloodbath that they can’t afford. If Germany is allowed to earn near 50 or better consistently in the early part of the game, it becomes nearly impossible for the Allies to slow them down without leaving Italy and Japan largely unchecked.

My builds would depend on whether it would be possible to defend Karelia from a G2 attack and how many casualties Germany took in their opening attacks. I’m leaning toward 5 inf, 3 arm if Germany moves heavily into Bst and 5 inf, 1 arm, 1 fig if they didn’t and you can try to hold Karelia. Although, there is a special place in my heart for the 6 inf, 1 bmb build with the bomber placed in Cauc to threaten an undefended Japanese TP in sz38(props to axis_roll for that one).

I, too, like to prop up China with the Russians or at least to try to hold the line in Chinghai using mostly the Siberian inf(sometimes more) with a small 3 inf force acting as rear guard to conduct a fighting withdrawal to prevent Japan from just blitzing through all of those territories.

KIF?

My plan is usually to neuter Italy in Africa and then go after Germany.

I have no idea if USA can split it’s attention between the Atlantic and the Pacific. Perhaps it has to?

The only possible split is to harrass the Pacific with a small force(most of which is already there) to tie up a larger portion of the Japanese fleet and everything else being spent in the Atlantic for the rest of the game. Other than that, pick one side and go with it. Splitting the US income is usually wasteful.

[rockrobinoff]

@U-505:

If you do not even attempt to attack Egypt, Italy’s growth in Africa will be stunted, at least, if they are not outright ejected from Africa altogether in the first few turns.

Do you agree though, that if the attack on Egypt fails (all G units lost, British fighter intact) that the Axis position is close to breaking already?

[Lucifer]

@rockrobinoff:

Do you agree though, that if the attack on Egypt fails (all G units lost, British fighter intact) that the Axis position is close to breaking already?

Imo if Germany is left with 1-2 tanks in Egy G1, then axis have huge advantage, if every other battle was average.

[rockrobinoff]

@Subotai:

Imo if Germany is left with 1-2 tanks in Egy G1, then axis have huge advantage, if every other battle was average.

And if they lose?

[Lucifer]

@rockrobinoff:

@Subotai:

Imo if Germany is left with 1-2 tanks in Egy G1, then axis have huge advantage, if every other battle was average.

And if they lose?

All things being equal, then I would say allies are favored to win the game.

This is the reason why axis are favored in 41 with NOs, in LL. It could be different in ADS. Its too soon to say for sure.
The Egy battle is 60% (ADS) for 1 German tank left. I’m gonna try some games w/o the Egy battle in ADS games.

[rockrobinoff]

@Subotai:

All things being equal, then I would say allies are favored to win the game.

That’s my assessment as well. There seems to be other, less risky, targets that should give Axis a good game.

[U-505]

@rockrobinoff:

@U-505:

If you do not even attempt to attack Egypt, Italy’s growth in Africa will be stunted, at least, if they are not outright ejected from Africa altogether in the first few turns.

Do you agree though, that if the attack on Egypt fails (all G units lost, British fighter intact) that the Axis position is close to breaking already?

No. Although, their position is certainly poor. But, their position would be poor if they never attacked Egypt in the first place so they might as well go for it.

[axis_roll]

@rockrobinoff:

@Subotai:

All things being equal, then I would say allies are favored to win the game.

That’s my assessment as well. There seems to be other, less risky, targets that should give Axis a good game.

I don’t think losing the Egypt G1 battle is a loss for the axis.  Sure it’s nice but not necessary for Germany to take Egypt G1.  That is a small hurdle for the Axis to overcome.  Egypt and Transjordan will fall to Italy (I1), and then Africa falls after 3 rounds instead of 2.

Alot depends on what Germany is doing on G1 (buy, moves, battle outcomes)

[jsp4563]

I tend to agree with U-505, you might as well attack Egypt.  IMO not attacking is a worse outcome than attacking and losing.  Even if you lose, you will have normally destroyed all the UK ground forces and Italy can take Egypt and TJ I1 giving them both their NO’s (assuming no UK attack on Algeria).  Germany has a 75% chance of taking Egypt and an 81% chance of destroying all UK units including the fighter.

[Lucifer]

I would think it’s not a wise decision to take the bmr as casuality, any players who do this?

And it’s 60% to take Egy G1 with 1 tank left, (or more units), not 75% unless you take the bmr as casuality. This is in ADS, I reckon most of you play ADS not LL.

http://frood.net/aacalc/?mustland=0&abortratio=0&saveunits=0&strafeunits=0&aInf=2&aArt=1&aArm=2&aFig=&aBom=1&aTra=&aSub=&aDes=&aCar=&aBat=&adBat=&dInf=2&dArt=1&dArm=1&dFig=1&dBom=&dTra=&dSub=&dDes=&dCar=&dBat=&ddBat=&ool_att=Bat-Inf-Art-Arm-Tra-Sub-SSub-Fig-JFig-Des-Bom-HBom-Car-dBat&ool_def=Bat-Inf-Art-Arm-Tra-Sub-SSub-Bom-HBom-Des-Fig-JFig-Car-dBat&battle=Run&rounds=&reps=5000&luck=pure&ruleset=Revised&gameid=&password=&turnid=&territory=&round=1&pbem=

[jsp4563]

@Subotai:

I would think it’s not a wise decision to take the bmr as casuality, any players who do this?

And it’s 60% to take Egy G1 with 1 tank left, (or more units), not 75% unless you take the bmr as casuality. This is in ADS, I reckon most of you play ADS not LL.

http://frood.net/aacalc/?mustland=0&abortratio=0&saveunits=0&strafeunits=0&aInf=2&aArt=1&aArm=2&aFig=&aBom=1&aTra=&aSub=&aDes=&aCar=&aBat=&adBat=&dInf=2&dArt=1&dArm=1&dFig=1&dBom=&dTra=&dSub=&dDes=&dCar=&dBat=&ddBat=&ool_att=Bat-Inf-Art-Arm-Tra-Sub-SSub-Fig-JFig-Des-Bom-HBom-Car-dBat&ool_def=Bat-Inf-Art-Arm-Tra-Sub-SSub-Bom-HBom-Des-Fig-JFig-Car-dBat&battle=Run&rounds=&reps=5000&luck=pure&ruleset=Revised&gameid=&password=&turnid=&territory=&round=1&pbem=

Agreed, I would not take the bomber as a casualty.  I’d withdraw from the battle rather than risk losing it.  The point is to weaken if not take Egypt to open up Africa for Italy.

[Woodstock]

I always somewhat like it if Ger loses to the British in Egypt. This way I know for sure that those 2 IPC’s are going to Italy, who could use it  alot better then the already not so poor Germans.
Sure. UK may have it’s NO for 1 more round, but so what?

[jsp4563]

@Woodstock:

I always somewhat like it if Ger loses to the British in Egypt. This way I know for sure that those 2 IPC’s are going to Italy, who could use it  alot better then the already not so poor Germans.
Sure. UK may have it’s NO for 1 more round, but so what?

I tend to agree.  I’m trying out a new tactic, sending the bomber agains the UK BB in SZ2 with the 2 SS from SZ7, and attacking Egypt with the usual ground forces.  The Egypt battle only has a 30% chance of success but the most likely outcome is UK holds with just the fighter.  Ripe picking for Italy, and UK is down a BB and TP from SZ2.

[Woodstock]

@Emperor:

@Woodstock:

I always somewhat like it if Ger loses to the British in Egypt. This way I know for sure that those 2 IPC’s are going to Italy, who could use it  alot better then the already not so poor Germans.
Sure. UK may have it’s NO for 1 more round, but so what?

I tend to agree.  I’m trying out a new tactic, sending the bomber agains the UK BB in SZ2 with the 2 SS from SZ7, and attacking Egypt with the usual ground forces.  The Egypt battle only has a 30% chance of success but the most likely outcome is UK holds with just the fighter.  Ripe picking for Italy, and UK is down a BB and TP from SZ2.

I usually send only 1 sub to SZ2, combined with a fighter and the bomber, and the other sub combined with 1 fighter to SZ12.

If Egypt holds the fighter + the fleet off the Med is intact, then the Italian fleet could be toast on UK1.

SZ2 should cost you the sub (so what), and maybe 1 fighter (Germany can handle that), SZ12 might cost you a sub (again, so what) and the fighter (again, Germany can spare it), but the Italian fleet survives.

Also, if you take only 1 ship from SZ12, that’s enough already to save the Italian navy.
(So if your sub is killed in the first round, and a british ship is destroyed, just retreat).

This way, Italian fleet is safe, Egypt should be in German hands or else in Italy on IT1, plus you still get that juicy BB.

[Lynxes]

So, we have 3 options for G1, and I don’t count not attacking EGY at all which I wouldn’t recommend! In order of risk to the Axis:

1. 2 sub, 1 ftr vs. sz2; 2 inf, 1 art, 2 arm, 1 bom vs. Egypt. This saves the Italian fleet in around 80% of cases, since you’ll be destroying that fighter. It is risky though since you’ll be in dire straits if you don’t!
2. 2 sub, 1 ftr vs. sz12; 2 inf, 1 art, 2 arm, 1 bom vs. Egypt. Attacking sz12 at the same time as Egypt will lessen the risk to the Italian navy in case of a failed Egypt attack. But UK gets to keep its battleship, a stronger backbone for the Royal navy.
3. 1 sub, 1 ftr, 1 bom vs. sz2; 1 sub, 2 ftr vs. sz12; 2 inf, 1 art, 2 arm vs. Egypt. The likely result here is that you simply reduce the UK forces in Egypt to 1 ftr or 1 arm+1 ftr, but the good thing is you will probably wipe out all heavy naval units. On ITA1, 3 inf, 1 arm, 1 ftr + shore bombardment will be able to deal with any UK defence of Egypt if the Japs have done their job and sunk the Indian fleet. The main drawback here is that UK gets one extra turn of NO bonus and Italy will have to wait a turn for getting both NOs.

(Bardoly, thanks for the correction!  :wink: )

[Bardoly]

@Lynxes:

So, we have 3 options for G1, and I don’t count not attacking EGY at all which I wouldn’t recommend! In order of risk to the Axis:

1. 2 sub, 1 ftr vs. sz2; 2 inf, 1 art, 1 arm, 1 bom vs. Egypt. This saves the Italian fleet in around 80% of cases, since you’ll be destroying that fighter. It is risky though since you’ll be in dire straits if you don’t!
2. 2 sub, 1 ftr vs. sz12; 2 inf, 1 art, 1 arm, 1 bom vs. Egypt. Attacking sz12 at the same time as Egypt will lessen the risk to the Italian navy in case of a failed Egypt attack. But UK gets to keep its battleship, a stronger backbone for the Royal navy.
3. 1 sub, 1 ftr, 1 bom vs. sz2; 1 sub, 2 ftr vs. sz12; 2 inf, 1 art, 1 arm vs. Egypt. The likely result here is that you simply reduce the UK forces in Egypt to 1 ftr or 1 arm+1 ftr, but the good thing is you will probably wipe out all heavy naval units. On ITA1, 3 inf, 1 arm, 1 ftr + shore bombardment will be able to deal with any UK defence of Egypt if the Japs have done their job and sunk the Indian fleet. The main drawback here is that UK gets one extra turn of NO bonus and Italy will have to wait a turn for getting both NOs.

Actually, Germany brings 2 arm(the second one from France) to Egypt, not 1 as your post says