How to take Karelia and keep it

[Jennifer]

You can’t hit Belarus in round 1, not with ground forces.

Yes, you could block the British Battleship, but round 1 is your only chance to sink it basically for free. (You’ll lose a submarine or two, but you would lose those anyway.)

[wodan46]

@Cmdr:

You can’t hit Belarus in round 1, not with ground forces.

But you can with your Bomber and a Fighter.  Strafe the Infantry to death and Russia has too little left to recapture Karelia.

@Cmdr:

Yes, you could block the British Battleship, but round 1 is your only chance to sink it basically for free. (You’ll lose a submarine or two, but you would lose those anyway.)

Which is why sending 2 Subs at it and the other at the Destroyer is risky but still doable.  So long as you sink one of them you are still fine.

[Umgar]

From my experience Germany can only do one of the following on G1 (it can attempt to do more of these, but typically will either outright fail or barely succeed; losing too many forces to actually hold newly acquired gains and then be back in the same boat on G2).

Germany’s choices are:

• Take and hold Karelia

• Obliterate the UK Atlantic fleet

• Take and hold Egypt

To do any of these 3 things well, the German bomber must be committed. Otherwise the attacks are very risky. The Egypt attack is dicey even with the bomber but will usually succeed with at least 1 tank left, and arguably that’s all you need to roll most of Africa.

In any case… my point is if you want to take and hold Karelia on G1 - yes it can be done. However, in order to achieve this you must leave the UK Atlantic fleet partially intact and/or forget about taking Egypt on G1 (you might be able to soften it enough for Italy to finish the job… but it’s very risky leaving that UK fighter alive in Egypt).

So ultimately it comes down to what you think is the lesser of 3 evils. You can only do one of the 3 things above well.

[wodan46]

@Umgar:

From my experience Germany can only do one of the following on G1 (it can attempt to do more of these, but typically will either outright fail or barely succeed; losing too many forces to actually hold newly acquired gains and then be back in the same boat on G2).

Germany’s choices are:

• Take and hold Karelia

• Obliterate the UK Atlantic fleet

• Take and hold Egypt

To do any of these 3 things well, the German bomber must be committed. Otherwise the attacks are very risky. The Egypt attack is dicey even with the bomber but will usually succeed with at least 1 tank left, and arguably that’s all you need to roll most of Africa.

In any case… my point is if you want to take and hold Karelia on G1 - yes it can be done. However, in order to achieve this you must leave the UK Atlantic fleet partially intact and/or forget about taking Egypt on G1 (you might be able to soften it enough for Italy to finish the job… but it’s very risky leaving that UK fighter alive in Egypt).

So ultimately it comes down to what you think is the lesser of 3 evils. You can only do one of the 3 things above well.

Your analysis is correct.

Germany’s options are the following:
1. Take Karelia(and hold it), and possibly eliminate the Destroyer and/or Battleship-Transport group
2. Take Karelia(but fail to hold) and Egypt
3. Take Karelia(but fail to hold) and eliminate the Destroyer and either the Battleship-Transport group or the Destroyer-Cruiser group
4. Take Egypt and eliminate the Destroyer/Transport, Destroyer/Cruiser, and Destroyer groups
5. Eliminate the Destroyer, Battleship-Transport, and Destroyer/Cruiser groups.

In all options, Germany has enough forces to capture the 3 Russian territories closest to it.

[Yoshi]

@wodan46:

@Yoshi:

and why uk would not take it back ?

The simplest way to block UK is to use the Sub fleet to kill the Destroyer so that the Cruiser can move to block a British invasion.  This will mean that Britain is limited to strafing Karelia, which can be reinforced next turn anyway by units from Norway, Baltic States, those produced by Karelia, and the transport if its still alive.

but you have already use your cruiser for the attack in karelia. if you do not use that, you decrease your chance to take karelia (about 70% instead of 80%)

[wodan46]

@Yoshi:

@wodan46:

@Yoshi:

and why uk would not take it back ?

The simplest way to block UK is to use the Sub fleet to kill the Destroyer so that the Cruiser can move to block a British invasion.  This will mean that Britain is limited to strafing Karelia, which can be reinforced next turn anyway by units from Norway, Baltic States, those produced by Karelia, and the transport if its still alive.

but you have already use your cruiser for the attack in karelia. if you do not use that, you decrease your chance to take karelia (about 70% instead of 80%)

Then perhaps hitting the Battleship with 2 Subs is best, with the other Sub attacking the Destroyer.  I’m curious, could you resolve those battles before deciding whether or not the Cruiser bombards?’

Or you might just be stuck with the 70% win chance.

[Yoshi]

The choice of the bombardment must be done in the combat movement phase. Thus, you have to choose before.

[bugoo]

best way to take Karelia and keep it is the G1 6 tank buy honestly with Italy threatening a can opener on Moscow.

[wodan46]

That is a fairly effective strategy, though I think it doesn’t matter whether or not it takes Karelia G1 or G2.  The point would be that while Germany focuses its initial force north at Karelia/Belorussia/Archangel, Italy grabs Caucasus on I2 using 2 transports, which should be easy if the forces there attempted to recapture Ukraine or moves up to Moscow.  Then on G3, the 6 Tanks built on G1 can move into either Karelia OR the Caucasus, securing them as needed, and Russia is proper screwed.

[bugoo]

The only problem with that is the allies will probably start trading france on turn 2 and liberate africa as well. I really dont like Italy picking on Russia unless there is a really good opportunity, not to mention its easy for russia to have 10+ inf on caucaus on turn 2.

[a44bigdog]

And Germany is going to be in some seriously bad shape if those 2 infantry in Belorussia roll deuces.

Jenn’s plan for attacking Karelia round 1 and reinforcing with 2 tanks is about the best so far I have seen as far as Karelia. Russia does not have that good a chance of a round 1 liberation. However the loss of Karelia is not that huge of a blow to Russia. While there is an IC there it only produces 2 units without tech. Yes it does give Germany a 5 IPC NO but what I am saying is if you are playing Russia do not panic merely because Karelia is captured.

[bugoo]

I agree as Russia i’d prefer the axis to take the ‘northern’ path so to speak as there are fewer IPCs there for me to loose, it is further from Moscow, and most importantly, UK can liberate it for me.  The only bad thing is it keeps me from taking Finland.

Moscow is the goal, and Karelia is a distraction.  I’d rather counter Ukraine on R1 honestly.