First off, I apologize, I did not read through EVERYONE’S responses in depth, short on time.
However, I would like to mention (sorry if this is a repeat) that any American strategy needs to keep in mind fleet assets. It’s too easy for America to get bogged down in transports and not realize they are short on warships. I know, I know, “but America does not need to get into a naval fist fight.” Sure, against most opponents, you won’t ever engage anything stronger than an Aircraft Carrier, 2 Submarines, 2 Fighters, Transport and Destroyer with the American or British fleet.
Now, imagine this. Japan has been slowly assembling a navy for the past 10 rounds or so. Nothing big, just a ship here or there, almost unnoticeable really. Sure, you see it, sure you know the ships are there, but you really don’t see how they are helping the Axis and you are almost glad they are putting boats in the water instead of tanks on the land. (Though, to be honest, they do seem to have a lot of tanks anyway.)
Suddenly you see the Japanese fleet come down to SZ 27 or 28 (S. African coast) and out to SZ 42 (next to the sea zone containing New Zealand.) You realize that this fleet can unify in the South Atlantic and take Brazil. Now, of course, Brazil isn’t a huge prize, but it suddenly dawns on you that yes, you have a 150-200 IPC fleet, but 80-96 IPC of that is in transports! (10-12 which is where I see a lot of Americans get too) and you cannot use that against a fleet with 3 carriers, 6 fighters, 2 battleships, 12 submarines, destroyer and transport (with 1 infantry on it.)
The scenario presented may never arise in your game. I’ve only seen it played against me a few times and I have in turn only used it a few times. But that does not mean you won’t get caught by it.
I admit, the 3rd carrier is often a tip off that Japan’s going to try something sneaky. But it could also just be that Japan needs the extra protection in SZ 34 and wanted some air power to take Australia/New Zealand just recently as well.
Remember, a Japanese fleet in SZ 34 and in SZ 41 (New Zealand) is not an uncommon sight by any stretch of the imagination! So it can easily be shrugged off as normal Japanese trouble making.
Moral of the story: You can easily get over-whelmed by the Japanese fleet in the late game part of the game. It’s often a wise idea for Japan to make an attack like this if Russia is under siege and Germany needs a little relief. The Japanese fleet might be all but useless at the time (say Japan has 3 ICs in mainland Asia pumping out 9 units, you really don’t have assets at any point to get 17 useful assets anyway. 17 Infantry are 51 IPC, that’s almost a paycheck and then you don’t have any tanks in that mix, far better to get 9 tanks 45 IPC and move your fleet to stop the allies, sometimes.)
Note, this is not a specific counter to just this strategy, it is a thought I think all American strategies MUST be aware of. BTW, the same works for America by the way, no-one said you have to have a transport train of 10-12 transports carrying 20-24 units across, you can easily get by with 6 (and 6 ground units a round) using the remainder for planes and boats, then just slip around the south end of S. America to really get Japan angry!