I wanted to follow-up to this paper based on what I learned trying to use something similar (before I even saw the paper), as I mentioned above.
There is one problem with part of the discussion of what the UK can do in response. The paper states:
@Crazy:
So ignoring the fleet is bad, how about attacking the boats with everything? The UK could send 2tra 1btl 2ftr 1bmr against 1tra 3sub 1des. Clearly that is a good fight for the UK, but it has some interesting risks. First off, if the UK gets two hits on the first round, the Germans will lose the transport and the destroyer and submerge the subs. Because you can’t retreat from submerged subs, the UK fleet will be pulled out of range of the American reinforcements.
[[i]emphasis added]
The problem is, this isn’t quite how it works in reality. While it’s true the attacker can’t retreat from submerged subs, they can retreat before the subs submerge. Most of the time, for expediency, we just declare our OOLs and submerges at the same time, but that’s not how the rules work. The defender has to declare their OOL first in conduct combat, then in press attack or retreat, the attacker has the option to retreat. So when you choose to sink the DD and TRN, the UK just retreats before you can dive*. It seems the best scenario is to strafe with the British fleet (which, by the way, can only score 4 hits so it can’t possibly get trapped by sinking the entire german flotilla), then retreat to sz8 for US reinforcements and perhaps a CV build that was probably going to happen soon anyway. That’s what was done to me. Then those subs get hammered by the USAF - especially if they leave an open spot on the brit cv for the EUS fighter. Then you’ll likely get your entire navy smoked if you try to link any remaining subs with the med BB (again, speaking from experience).
So running the fleet limits what the UK can do offensively for a turn, but it lets them bring an extra 4 dots from the BB, and gives them the BB damage and plenty of fodder instead of risking the RAF completely which seems to counter the addition of the subs to the battle.
*LHTR is crystal clear that the attacker has the option to retreat before the defender can dive the subs. Actually the OOB rules are a little vague (surprise!) on who can declare retreat first - the attacker or the defending subs. But even if you’re playing OOB, the best case scenario is you get in a big argument about who can retreat or submerge first which will inevitably end with the board getting flipped up in the air with pieces flying all over the room.