@ncscswitch:
In fact, barring horrid Allied play, I have yet to see a Channel Dash/Fleet Unification strat that was worth the cost to Germany.
What am I? Chopped liver? I’ve won multiple games using the Channel Dash. Of course I’ve modified it to only be used when Germany hasn’t lost any of it’s fighters on R1 because of my Low Luck results but I’ve still used it effectively with only 5 German fighters. I’ve also had to build a CV in the Med to make sure if anything is left in sz7 they can be protected from attack when they move to sz13 the following turn. Without the Med fleet for cover the Allies can just stack in sz8 and let the German fleet go. The UK can clear out any blocking forces in sz12 and take Algeria and the US can hit sz13 with 1 DD, 2 TP, all of the aircraft that moved toward the Atlantic on US1, and any aircraft that are in E Can or on a CV built in sz10. If you are going to make that move without building navy on G1 then your best bet would be to build at least 1 more fighter in case Germany loses everything in sz7 but the UK has taken more than average damage to still give yourself the option of attacking with only aircraft if it is to your advantage.
@ncscswitch:
So the initial fight is:
UK: 2 TRN (fodder), 1 BB, 2 FIG, 1 BOM
Germany: 1 TRN, 3 SUB, 1 DST
Right. Not exactly overwhelming odds. There are 2 things to remember here. First, as powerful as two 3’s and two 4’s look, the average number of hits is still only 2. Second, Germany has 5 defensive rolls there. Again, the average is only 2 hits, but 5 rolls, even at low numbers, is still not bad. 3 hits is not out of the question.
Even at 3 hits for both sides it doesn’t hurt Germany that much because now Germany can save 1 SS, 1 DD and make the UK gamble that if they push that attack the remaining German SS doesn’t sink the UK BB. And if they retreat, the US is stuck letting them survive or risk the bomber attacking with the DD covered by the SS to take a hit for it.
But lets assume average results. 2 hits for both sides. That leaves Germany with 3 submerged subs. The US can reasonably kill 1, but that leaves the UK with 1 CV, 1 BB, 1 DD, 2 fig, 1 TP and Germany with 2 SS in sz7 and now Russia has to gamble on attacking 2 SS just to get their sub in to reinforce the UK fleet. If they trade subs, I’m happy. If they all miss, I’m still happy. If Russia doesn’t attempt an attack there, I’m REALLY happy. Any one of those results leaves the UK staring at likely losing their starting fleet plus 1st round builds and Germany coming out of it with probably 1/3 or 1/2 of their airforce intact and no UK threat for 2 turns.
It might look bad for Germany to lose most of their aircraft until you realize that the UK would be losing all but their bomber and even the remaining German airforce will require that the UK build at least 1 more capital ship to protect their newly built TP’s. With UK’s income being reduced both in Africa and the Pacific they can hardly afford to have to rebuild their entire navy.
There are a few things that can go wrong for Germany there, but a lot more bad things can happen to the Allies in that situation. Germany can afford to lose their Baltic fleet if the rolls go against them but the UK can be in real trouble if the rolls even go average or favor Germany.