@a44bigdog:
P-Unit you are making what I consider one of the WORST mistakes in strategic thinking to validate your argument. You are assuming that everything falls your way.
So the US gets Heavy Bombers turn one. How much did they spend to get it? What is the effect of this in reduced round 1 purchases? What happens if the AA guns blow them out of the sky? What happens if they roll 1s and 2s? What happen if your target gets Improved Industry or radar on their first or second turn?
Answering these kinds of questions is what Jenn is referring to in her stating that you would assume your opponent has all 12 techs.
Bigdog, you are making an equally false assumption. Can you count on AA’s knocking more that an average number of bombers out? no. What happens if they roll average or above instead of 1’s and 2’s? What are the odds of Germany getting Improved Industry or radar? Very small without a large tech investment and even then it’s no guarantee. And Germany getting radar means you can move an AA to Italy but Improved Factories doesn’t help Italy at all.
And just remember that radar doesn’t make SBR’s unprofitable. It only brings the cost/benefit numbers back to a relatively normal level with the advantage still being with the bombers. You knock twice as many bombers out, but the ones that survive still do double damage. You can figure [6 bombers v. radar] means on average 2 lost bombers with 4 remaining bombers rolling 8 damage dice as opposed to [6 bombers v. AA] with on average 1 lost bomber and 5 remaining bombers rolling 5 damage dice. Radar doesn’t exactly offset heavy bombers completely.
And heavy bombers don’t just help with SBR’s. They affect the entire gameboard. This game isn’t so much about winning the dice battles. It is more about leverage. Forcing your opponent to abandon a weak position without having to risk large amounts of your units. And that includes naval as well. All of those people who say that Japan can stop a US SBR campaign with Japan landing in Alaska can’t do that against heavy bombers. Ask yourself what Japanese player is going to place their navy within range of US heavy bombers just to try and slow down bomber production.
The fact remains that if the US, Japan, Germany, or UK get heavy bombers on their first turn, it is over for the vast majority of games. The only ones that can be salvaged when your opponent does that are the ones where you happen to roll heavy bombers early as well and hopefully without a massive tech investment that would cripple your unit production which is very slim indeed.
I don’t really care anymore. If we are allowed to make gentleman’s agreements about not purchasing tech in a game then I’m happy. And if I play a game with tech and I manage to win a game because I lucked into heavy bombers or any other exactly right tech rolled at exactly the right moment then I’ll know it was a cheap win that I didn’t deserve. At least I’ll admit it. I won’t pretend it was some kind of master strategy.