Nit picky German Economizer

Two things…

1.  Replacement Cost of the ARM was already figured into that analysis to come  up with the +2 IPC result
2.  The point of pointing out the 4% to kill the FIG also was to show that it is not a 50/50 analysis, but that it is a variable result, and that there are some very positive potential results for Germany.  (and FYI, retreating the FIG only increases the odds of a favorable result for Germany in terms of maintaining control of Archangel)

Lastly, you speak of Germany being strapped for INF on the Russian front.  But Russia is REALLY strapped for offensive units.  And putting an ARM in Archangel forces Russia to use one of their 2 FIGs, and 2 of the INF in Russia, to fight to liberate a territory that is normally theirs “free and clear”.  So now another attack that Russia does (Karelia, Ukraine, Belo…) that turn is going to be reduced in offensive power, thus giving Germany more “kills” on their defense, and on subsequent counters because the Russians took the territory with fewer remainign units alive.

The effect is CUMULATIVE.

@ncscswitch:

Two things…

1.  Replacement Cost of the ARM was already figured into that analysis to come  up with the +2 IPC result
2.  The point of pointing out the 4% to kill the FIG also was to show that it is not a 50/50 analysis, but that it is a variable result, and that there are some very positive potential results for Germany.  (and FYI, retreating the FIG only increases the odds of a favorable result for Germany in terms of maintaining control of Archangel)

Lastly, you speak of Germany being strapped for INF on the Russian front.  But Russia is REALLY strapped for offensive units.  And putting an ARM in Archangel forces Russia to use one of their 2 FIGs, and 2 of the INF in Russia, to fight to liberate a territory that is normally theirs “free and clear”.  So now another attack that Russia does (Karelia, Ukraine, Belo…) that turn is going to be reduced in offensive power, thus giving Germany more “kills” on their defense, and on subsequent counters because the Russians took the territory with fewer remainign units alive.

The effect is CUMULATIVE.

Solution? The old, good principle of A&A: never leave territories free to the enemy?

I mean, this happens because usually Karelia is left without units from Russia. Leaving there a little, nice inf, will avoid to Russia al lthose problems.
If Germany want Karelia have to commit 2 inf and 1 fig, or 2 inf and 1 art.
Result? No problem of blitzinf German tanks, territory gained for free, trading without losing infantry.
German and Russia are at war… so they have to fight!

You’ve got it Romulus.

Leaving that 1 INF forward in Karelia…

• Preserves 2 IPC in Archangel
• Makes Germany commit forces to taking Karelia instead of it being free (forces that could be destroyed by a Russian atack from West Russia on R2)
• Can potentially kill 1 (or more) German attackers in Karelia
• Prevents the need for Russia to fight in Archangel on R2, freeing up 2 INF and 1 FIG for other duties.
• Reduces the German Build on G2 by $2, with no need for an SBR :-)

Playing defensively is the worst strategy, IMO of course, for either G or R: it just invites the other player to go against you.

Not really. Maybe your definition of defensive is retreating indefinitely, and that’s how you perceive my argument. That’s not it at all. I don’t even have a defensive/offensive way to play. I just play conservatively, making sure that I’m not using a bit of effort or money that can’t be backed up. .

I perceived it exactly as you described on your last line: playing conservatively, or waiting for backup before making a move. Perhaps I should reformulate my argument: sticking on a single strategy is the worst strategy, IMO. There’s a time to be conservative, a time to push, a time to spend INF and ARM like crazy, a time to fortify in your core territories.

Counting on luck is the worst strategy, IMO; hoping that one infantry or tank will take out a bazillion units. Because guess what, it doesn’t just happen for your side, and just as often as not your luck could be the other way.

Who said anything about me counting on luck? :) When there’s that lonely INF out there I don’t expect it to even kill 1 unit before the 2 INF + 1 FTR (or whatever the combination) gets it. But this is not even luck: it’s relying on probabilities.
Luck is something that happens when opportunity and preparation meet, not when the dice roll. And a good player makes its own luck on the choices and moves he/she makes. After 10 battles where a single INF is killed defending a territory there’s a fair chance that at least in 1 of them it will survive and give you an opening. And if you are not in position to take advantage of that result then you just missed an opportunity.

Here’s my two cents - I’ve been thinking on very similar lines to trihero’s initial post. It comes back to my main mantra of valuing units over territory (but you still need to hold & gain territory, don’t get me wrong - it’s just easier to do if you have more units :) )

These are my considerations:
1. Will leaving an Inf add pressure to the enemy’s resources? It may be a net loss but if it gives the Allies more to do with their limited resources, I’ve just made other battles harder for them because they have to commit some air power to this one. It must be remembered that as Germany you are not only trading with Russia, but also with the UK and possibly the US. So yes Russia only has two fighters, but the UK has fighters, a bomber and a battleship.

2. Can the allies shore-bombard the territory? If yes, leaving an Inf is not as useful as normal, since it has only a 1/3 chance of even getting  to defend.

3. Can the allies tank-blitz the territory? If yes I may be more inclined to leave an Inf there, because otherwise they truly can get the territory absolutely for free. However alternate tank blitzing by each side may be better for me, if I am more in need of conserving units than the other side.

3a. Can the allies send tanks through that territory to attack something else that they couldn’t otherwise? Eg. Russia might have tanks in Karelia, and Inf in Caucasus - If belo is left empty, both forces can attack Ukraine.

4. Can I afford to trade units more than the other side? If my production is inferior, I need to save my units for big battles where I can effect a significant swing in total IPC unit value.

So, like others have said, it depends on the circumstances. I find myself leaving the Inf more often than not though.

Finally, I’ll just say that my favoured attack for trading territory is to match the number of Infantry, and add air power. So e.g. if a territory is defended with one Inf, I would attack with 1 Inf + 2 Ftrs, or maybe 1 Inf + 1 Bomber, or more air if I have it available. I will only send 2 Inf if the territory has tactical importance. If I am just trying to get the IPCs and kill the enemy unit (the unit being more valuable than the IPCs from the territory, as an active, front-line unit), I just match the infantry.

The reason is that I don’t want to get 2 Inf killed in order to kill 1 Inf - that’s bad.

Here’s how it works out:
Attack with 1 Inf 2 Ftrs v. 1 Inf:

• with total punch of 7, good chance of killing the enemy Inf - + 3 IPCs for me.
• 1/3 chance of losing my Inf - -1 IPC for me
• 2/3 chance of taking the territory - for a 3 IPC territory, that’s +2 IPCs for me, + a 1/3 chance of killing a counter-attacking Inf - another +1 IPC for me.
• I will lose the Inf to the counter-attack: -3 IPCs

Total net = +2 IPCs

If you attack with 2 Inf 1 Ftr:

• Less likely to end battle in one round. IF the enemy Inf lives another round, they get another 1/3 chance to kill an Inf. But this is a small difference, punch of 5 instead of 7.
• taking the territory is more certain, so I award the full +3 IPCs for trading a 3 IPC territory - +1 from my plan above.
• You have now got 2 Inf occupying the territory. These amount to two 1/3 chances to kill enemy Inf instead of two, so that’s another +1 IPC
• Both occupying Inf however will be lost to a counterattack: -3 IPCs compared to above

So for this attack the total net is +1 IPCs.

That one IPC difference may not seem like much, but if you trade three territories / turn like this for 10 turns, that’s 30 IPCs! Suddenly by round 11 it is as if you have had one extra free turn of producing Infantry!

However, the 2nd attack may be good if you are wanting to trade more units, which you want if your side has a unit lead on land. eg. suppose I have 80 units, and you have 60. If I can keep trading off evenly until I have 40 and you have 20, that’s good for me.

But generally I like to think that I will put my surviving units to better uses than my opponent will, so I try to keep my own units alive as a priority.

I am a big fan of spilling Plastic Blood, so I don;t mind units dying  :lol:

@ncscswitch:

I am a big fan of spilling Plastic Blood, so I don;t mind units dying  :lol:

u monster

@ncscswitch:

I am a big fan of spilling Plastic Blood, so I don;t mind units dying  :lol:

I remember from the games we played that it was much more of a slug fest than I usually play. I usually play more conservatively but what was I going to do when you kept sticking your units where I could kill them?

For the most part I agree with Frood. Blocking an armor blitz or vacating a territory to prevent an infantry being smashed by a BB is smart. But, attacking a territory with only 1 inf+fig’s is risky, especially Karelia and Ukraine, because if you lose the inf and leave the territory under Allied control they can reinforce usually with a large quantity of ground units and, more importantly, land all of their combined fighters. Germany has to be careful to not let the Allies combine their forces in one territory, especially in one bordering Eastern Europe because that signals the beginning of the end of Germany’s ability to trade Kar-Belo-Ukr.

@ncscswitch:

You’ve got it Romulus.

Leaving that 1 INF forward in Karelia…

• Preserves 2 IPC in Archangel
• Makes Germany commit forces to taking Karelia instead of it being free (forces that could be destroyed by a Russian atack from West Russia on R2)
• Can potentially kill 1 (or more) German attackers in Karelia
• Prevents the need for Russia to fight in Archangel on R2, freeing up 2 INF and 1 FIG for other duties.
• Reduces the German Build on G2 by $2, with no need for an SBR :-)

In the case of leaving Karelia open to allow a German armor blitz into Archangel, the best solution for Russia is to attack Arch with 1 inf and all of their armor. The Russian armor can still threaten Belo-Kar-Ukr, you’re fighters can be used elsewhere, and at best you’ve only pushed 1 inf into Arch which still can be used in Kar next turn. It makes it a wash for Germany in IPC’s if they’re lucky and an IPC loss if they aren’t. Getting the bonus territory and killing a Russian inf in exchange for the armor is the best you can hope for there because you can’t count Karelia’s income in that equation because moving an inf or blitzing an armor up and back from Eastern gains that income anyway. I would be more than happy, as Russia, to let Germany expose an armor in that case.

@U-505:

For the most part I agree with Frood. Blocking an armor blitz or vacating a territory to prevent an infantry being smashed by a BB is smart. But, attacking a territory with only 1 inf+fig’s is risky, especially Karelia and Ukraine, because if you lose the inf and leave the territory under Allied control they can reinforce usually with a large quantity of ground units and, more importantly, land all of their combined fighters. Germany has to be careful to not let the Allies combine their forces in one territory, especially in one bordering Eastern Europe because that signals the beginning of the end of Germany’s ability to trade Kar-Belo-Ukr.

That’s partly what I meant when I referred to the possibility that the territory may have tactical value, in which case I will use 2 Inf. So I think I totally agree with you :D

Ok. Yes. I forgot about that line while I was posting. But, when there are all kinds of Allied units flying around Europe it can sometimes be hard to judge whether or not a territory is of tactical importance when you have multiple territories to consider so I usually err on the side of caution and go for the take in Ukraine and Karelia.

No Wes…

It is as I stated… TWO THIRDS of the time, the German gain is 2 IPC OR MORE

+2 for Karelia
+2 for Archangel
5.8% of the time you DON’T lose 5 for the ARM (it lives)
44.3% of the time +3 for 1 INF killed
13.4% of the time +6 for 2 INF killed

So…
The +4 for the IPC’s of Karelia and Archangel are automatic (if left vacant), I think you agree with me that far.
Then you have 5.8% that the ARM lives, 44.3% to kill 1 Russian INF, 13.4% to kill 2 Russian INF.
5.8 + 44.3 + 13.4 = 63.5

63.5% rounded to the nearest third is 2/3

So 2/3 of the time, you get the +4 from the territories, and then from +2 to +11 IPC MORE (with +11 being exceedingly rare, +2 being pretty common, assuming the Russians preserve their FIG and retreat once the INF are dead; otherwise you have a VERY small (2.1%) chance of Germany being up by as much as +21:  4 for the territories, 5 for the surviving ARM, 6 for the dead INF, 10 for the dead FIG…).

1/3 of the time you are -1 IPC (ARM dies without getting a defensive hit in Archangel).

The odds are in favor of a positive IPC and unit value exchange for Germany by sending an ARM to blitz a vacant Karelia and Archangel with the MOST COMMON result being Germany Net +2 in combined IPC and Unit Value.

And then the positional advantages of making Russia use their AF on a battle they otherwise would not have to fight at all, and sending 2 INF out of position to the north…

This analysis should be a hint for meditation.

I say again one little infantry in Karelia may avoid more problems even if is for sure a loss for Russia!

I try to do an analysis similar to the one made by Switch, but considering for sure the lost of the territory:

1/3 of the time defending russian infantry should kill one attacking infantry (+3), then die(-3) and losing the territory(-2), net: -2
2/3 of the time inf die without killing nothing: 2/3 * -5

net loss for Russian: (1/3 * -2) + (2/3 * -5) = -0,66 - 3,33 = -3,99 on average -4 IPC

Am I right?

So we should retreat that inf to stack it with other inf (very likely) or move in Karelia more forces to take it (very very unlikely).

But… the possibility for German of blitzing a tank give them the following advantages:

So 2/3 of the time, you get the +4 from the territories, and then from +2 to +11 IPC MORE (with +11 being exceedingly rare, +2 being pretty common, assuming the Russians preserve their FIG and retreat once the INF are dead; otherwise you have a VERY small (2.1%) chance of Germany being up by as much as +21:  4 for the territories, 5 for the surviving ARM, 6 for the dead INF, 10 for the dead FIG…).

that usually are not taken in account!

Result?
Is it not worthy to reason in terms of economy about trading of territories?
Is it more important to reason in terms of opportunity negated to the enemy?
Is it more useful the dispersion of own forces (1 inf alone) that cause more dispersion for the enemy (2 inf and 1 fig attacking)?

I know that units are the more important asset of a nation in A&A (units are the actual power of a nation, IPC are potential power still to be concretized) but I am starting to think that dispersion of forces is useful when aimed to force a consequent dispersion of the enemy and when used to reduce options and lessening the optimal attack of the enemy.

You are negating the value of giving the Russians FOUR needed attacks on R2 instead of only 3… and having only 2 FIGs (MAYBE 3) available for the attacks.  That leaves Russian ART and probably some ARM hanging out on the front, against Germany’s 5 FIGs and BOM…

You start spreading Russia’s initial forces THAT thin, and Germany is going to make some substantial LONG TERM gains, especially with the increased losses of Russian forces going for 4 attacks on R2, and the smaller number of Russians for the Germans to attack in each territory on G2.

If Russia pickets Karelia on R1, Archangel never changes hands ($2 lost to German coffers)
Russia still has only 3 attacks for R2:  Karelia, Belo, Ukraine… all of which would STILL be there, PLUS a 4th Archangel attack if you let the German ARM blitz to Archangel.

Also, the picket in Karelia prevents Germany from blitzing Karelia in the first place, which negates one of your advantages above.

In short, Russia is NOT going to abandon Karelia, they SHOULD picket it with 1 INF.
If they do not, then the likely 2 IPC advantage for Germany of running up on the Russian Border with 1 ARM is indeed VERY worthwhile.

I have no problem leaving Kar empty on Russia 1.

Whether I leave it empty or not depends on my losses in Wrus.  If I take Wrus w/out loss or lose only 1 inf then I’ll keep the guy in Kar.  If I take maybe 2 or more losses I’ll move him to Wrus for added defense and use on R2.

I always leave Karelia open on R1.

If the Germans blitz to Archangel, hurrah, thats a 5 IPC tank mobilized at the front for 2 IPC of territory and 1.5-2 IPC on the retake.  Good deal for Russia, especially since the Germans can’t possibly retake Archangel in force.

As far as leaving even 1 infantry in Karelia - well, the Germans have no problem kicking Karelia’s ass.  I’d rather save my infantry for when it can make a difference.