German buys turn one

Squire,

Now you are down to TWO ships in SZ7 (the Med BB, and the Baltic AC), out of a force of 11 ships (5 TRN, 3 SUBs, 1 DST, 1 BB, 1 AC).

I do NOT call 2 ships out of 11 a “Merge”, I call it a sucessful destruction of $76 IPC’s of German naval units, plus possibly a few FIGs splashed also.

As for closing the Suez… you MIGHT be able to with no Africa bid (as you stated you bid heavy in Ukraine to TRY to save a FIG) and with 1 FIG (since Ukraine still likely dead) from Balkans to help the Libya force.  But the odds are pretty long:
With 1 FIG only 28% chance to win, only a 10.8% chance to close tha canal.
With 2 FIG a 72% chance to clear and a 21.4% chance to close the canal; unless you want to sacrifce those FIGs, which of course reduces your combat punch for the merge attempt.

But of course, ANY FIGs you use in Egypt means FIGs that can NOT reach SZ6 for battle, unless you plan on moving the AC to SZ6 to recover them.  And THAT means your AC is NOT meeting up with the BB in SZ7.

This is why JSP is asking for it to be done in a GAME.  Because each thing you put forward leaves some serious gaps elsewhere that are detrimental to Germany.

You simply CANNOT do ALL of the following:
1.  Take Egypt to close the canal
2.  Threaten London
3.  Take out the UK/USSR fleet in SZ6
4.  Break through the US ship(s) in SZ12
5.  Preserve your AF
6.  Have any significant number of ships (3 or more) to actually “merge” in SZ7
7.  Not have Russia parked outside Berlin by R3
8.  Not get kicked out of Africa on Turn 2
9.  Prevent US/UK landings in Europe by Turn 3
10.  Do more than “run away” with the couple of ships alive from SZ7

So it is kind of a moot point.

Sure, you CAN get a couple of ships to SZ7 but at GREAT cost to Germany, for NO real gain and for serious losses elsewhere.

And the final question…
Do 2 ships out of 11 equal “merge”? 
Not in my book.

And on your final post…
Since you are NOT attacking London in G2 (as you specified above, you ONLY merge in G2), your threat analysis in your last post to London is COMPLETELY wrong as the G3 threat you posted ignores any UK2 purchase, and any USA2 transfer of forces.  Not to mention the fact that those TRN’s became North Sea Reefs in the SZ6 battle in G2 (unless you plan on sacrifcing your entire Air Force to save them).

@ncscswitch:

Squire,

Now you are down to TWO ships in SZ7 (the Med BB, and the Baltic AC), out of a force of 11 ships (5 TRN, 3 SUBs, 1 DST, 1 BB, 1 AC).

I do NOT call 2 ships out of 11 a “Merge”, I call it a sucessful destruction of $76 IPC’s of German naval units, plus possibly a few FIGs splashed also.

As for closing the Suez… you MIGHT be able to with no Africa bid (as you stated you bid heavy in Ukraine to TRY to save a FIG) and with 1 FIG (since Ukraine still likely dead) from Balkans to help the Libya force.  But the odds are pretty long:
With 1 FIG only 28% chance to win, only a 10.8% chance to close tha canal.
With 2 FIG a 72% chance to clear and a 21.4% chance to close the canal; unless you want to sacrifce those FIGs, which of course reduces your combat punch for the merge attempt.

But of course, ANY FIGs you use in Egypt means FIGs that can NOT reach SZ6 for battle, unless you plan on moving the AC to SZ6 to recover them.  And THAT means your AC is NOT meeting up with the BB in SZ7.

This is why JSP is asking for it to be done in a GAME.  Because each thing you put forward leaves some serious gaps elsewhere that are detrimental to Germany.Â

You simply CANNOT do ALL of the following:
1.  Take Egypt to close the canal
2.  Threaten London
3.  Take out the UK/USSR fleet in SZ6
4.  Break through the US ship(s) in SZ12
5.  Preserve your AF
6.  Have any significant number of ships (3 or more) to actually “merge” in SZ7
7.  Not have Russia parked outside Berlin by R3
8.  Not get kicked out of Africa on Turn 2
9.  Prevent US/UK landings in Europe by Turn 3
10.  Do more than “run away” with the couple of ships alive from SZ7

So it is kind of a moot point.

Sure, you CAN get a couple of ships to SZ7 but at GREAT cost to Germany, for NO real gain and for serious losses elsewhere.

And the final question…
Do 2 ships out of 11 equal “merge”? 
Not in my book.

And on your final post…
Since you are NOT attacking London in G2 (as you specified above, you ONLY merge in G2), your threat analysis in your last post to London is COMPLETELY wrong as the G3 threat you posted ignores any UK2 purchase, and any USA2 transfer of forces.  Not to mention the fact that those TRN’s became North Sea Reefs in the SZ6 battle in G2 (unless you plan on sacrifcing your entire Air Force to save them).

And you ignore the fact that USSR must have precog abilities. WHAT IF THEY DONT NORMALLY ATTACK UKRAINE ANYWAY !!

Many people dont. And with an Africa bid, Egypt is easier.

I posted the WORST case, losing UKR fighter and having tank africa bid, and still I showed that odds closed the canal and odds showed a merge.

If russia does things USSR1 to cause headaches, then GERMANY WONT BUY THIS FLEET. They will do other moves. But no one knows what USSR will do, and IF USSR takes WR and Belo, then 6 fighters do exist. USSR does not know this purchase is happening. Which is why a “game” doesnt show anything, because it has precognition built in, plus the “dice”.

Here has been detailed O/D punch discussion and even “worst case” scenario moves.

And the threat to london is G2, not on G3.Â

There is no real threat to London on G2 with the block that I posted.

You can either use your AF to support the naval battle, or to support the landing force.  But you need ALL of your AF to be sure to get through the SZ6 fleet and not lose your loaded TRNs.  Pull unit away from that SZ6 fight, and you can’t break through to London at all.

That also means that you can;t use FIGs to help with SZ12, so your Med Fleet can’t NCM to SZ7
And since you have FIGs in Africa from the Egypt fight, your AC has to go to SZ6 to recover FIGs if you want to use those Africa FIGs for SZ6.
Both prevent a G2 merge.

There are simply TOO MANY ALLIED FORCES PRESENT at the start of G2 to do EVERYTHING that you need to do in order to make this work.  SOMETHING (or several somethings) have to give if you want to get ANY units to SZ7.

@ncscswitch:

There is no real threat to London on G2 with the block that I posted.

You can either use your AF to support the naval battle, or to support the landing force.  But you need ALL of your AF to be sure to get through the SZ6 fleet and not lose your loaded TRNs.  Pull unit away from that SZ6 fight, and you can’t break through to London at all.

That also means that you can;t use FIGs to help with SZ12, so your Med Fleet can’t NCM to SZ7
And since you have FIGs in Africa from the Egypt fight, your AC has to go to SZ6 to recover FIGs if you want to use those Africa FIGs for SZ6.
Both prevent a G2 merge.

There are simply TOO MANY ALLIED FORCES PRESENT at the start of G2 to do EVERYTHING that you need to do in order to make this work.  SOMETHING (or several somethings) have to give if you want to get ANY units to SZ7.

Where are you getting loaded transports from???

The purchase on G1 threatens london and a merge. Thats it. On G2 its either london if the buildis in SZ 7, or attack fleet if in SZ6. No one is saving four loaded transports for the sea battle. (This is what happens when you come in the middle of a thread).

This is getting rather repetitive. But I’ve shown how you cannot stop both w/o USSR help. Which was the whole point of this exercise.

Right, you can;t do both.

If the Allies play the block I posted, you get 2 ships (and 2 FIGs) in SZ7 at the end of G2 out of ELEVEN ships you started with (the rest have all been, or are about to be, sunk).  By Turn 3, the threat of Sea Lion is gone, as is Germany’s economy.

To admit your point…
YES, you can get 2 (MAYBE 3) ships to SZ7 at the end of G2.

But to make MY point…
WHY BOTHER???

This is a really entertaining thread.  And I’d pay money to see JSP and Squire get it on.  Even if they either did or did not prove their theories, it would still be a decent game of top competitors who are skilled.  So boys, even if you don’t prove your posts, you’d entertain the community with some excellent game play.

@ncscswitch:

Right, you can;t do both.

If the Allies play the block I posted, you get 2 ships (and 2 FIGs) in SZ7 at the end of G2 out of ELEVEN ships you started with (the rest have all been, or are about to be, sunk).  By Turn 3, the threat of Sea Lion is gone, as is Germany’s economy.

To admit your point…
YES, you can get 2 (MAYBE 3) ships to SZ7 at the end of G2.Â

But to make MY point…
WHY BOTHER???

Then we’ve both made our points and we can finally drop this.

LOL, fair enough.

Though to be honest, I think the main “sticking point” was the definition of “merge”.

You appear to have been saying it was any linkage of 1 or more ships from both the Med and Baltic.
JSP and I seem to have been arguing a large number of ships making the link, sicne it really isn;t a fleet merge if it is only 2 ships.

@jsp4563:

Let’s just back track for a second.  My original post on G2 fleet unification was as follows:

@jsp4563:

G2 fleet unification in SZ7-I have yet to have an opponent pull this off.  As the allied player I can see it coming and no allied player worth his salt would allow it (IMHO) and it is easily countered.

This is based on an “Actual Game”.  Squire wants to claim that it is possible but his strategy for doing so is completely unrealistic in real game play.  What German player is going to forgo an attack on Egypt and the UK med DD allowing the UK Indian fleet to swoop into the Med.  It’s ridiculous.  Squire knows this, that’s why he won’t “Step up to the MIC”.

Libya bid or Algeria/Libya bid combined with Libyan forces and German air mean Anglo-Egypt is lost G1.

With Med fleet taking Gibraltar, UK counter is 1 destr 1 bomber vs 1 btl 1 trns 1 sub.  Caspian Sub papers recommend losing fighter rather than sub for the Med fleet west move.

"And I’d pay money to see JSP and Squire get it on. "

I wouldn’t.  I find aggression distasteful.

I’d pay money to see Jen in a bikini tho.

@ncscswitch:

LOL, fair enough.

Though to be honest, I think the main “sticking point” was the definition of “merge”.

You appear to have been saying it was any linkage of 1 or more ships from both the Med and Baltic.
JSP and I seem to have been arguing a large number of ships making the link, sicne it really isn;t a fleet merge if it is only 2 ships.

I think the main sticking point is that you are having two entirely different arguments.

One argument is about merging, and stopping the merge.

The other argument is about merging, and the COST of stopping the merge.

My only response to that Paint is that… early in the game the Allies have cash to burn, the Axis does not.

“Upon due consideration of the problem and all possible “options”, my original recommendation stands! Meeting adjourned!”

@jsp4563:

Channel Dash-Waste of a fleet, the UK & US airforces will make mince meat out of it before you can get to the med.

G2 fleet unification in SZ7-I have yet to have an opponent pull this off.  As the allied player I can see it coming and no allied player worth his salt would allow it (IMHO) and it is easily countered.

G1 buy with belo/WR opening no bid. Baltic CV, 3art, 4inf (this is 1 less unit than the 8inf buy but increase your offensive punch from 8 to 13).

@newpaintbrush:

I’d pay money to see Jen in a bikini tho.

Its in her avatar.

You owe each of us $20.

We all know that’s fake and that “Jenn” is prolly a 56-year old plumber from Jersey named “Hank” who we’d pay money NOT to see in a bikini.

Oops, off topic.

How’s this for a G1 buy: 8 AA guns. Watch out byotches!

@froodster:

How’s this for a G1 buy: 8 AA guns. Watch out byotches!

why not 8 tanks? coud this be viable for the germans to do? also what do you think of 4 figs.

I said 8 AAs because it’s about the only combination that has not been suggested.

I often fantasize about an all-fighter build but usually chicken out. I prefer to build up the luftwaffe slowly, a Ftr every other turn or so. But 4 right off the bat would be interesting, you could really threaten Allied shipping. Might be an effective way to keep the US away from Algeria. But it would be better with an IC in WE, then you’d have the Ftrs in range right away.

How’s this though: 2 Bombers 1 Ftr. That DOES menace any attempt to land in Algeria early on, esp. if the Med fleet moves west. I’d try that for a kick. My guess is you’d see the Allies buy a few more AAs.

2 figs and 2 trns and a amr or inf(depending on the bid). talk about scaring the UK.

At the risk of whipping a dead animal of the equine flavor, I would like to address the German fleet unification issue as well as put my $0.02 in on the “channel dash” option. I am making the distinction because the “channel dash” is moving the baltic fleet toward the Med on G1 and unifying the German fleet in sz7 is not.

First, the Allies don’t have to prevent the German fleets from combining in sz7. As far as I’m concerned, it is in their best interest to let Germany do it to prevent an uneven loss of IPC’s in Germany’s favor. Blocking them on UK1 is much more costly to the Allies should Germany attack the UK fleet. The simple block comes in UK2.

All of this assumes that the bid is 1 arm or 2 inf in Lib, the German sub isn’t lost against the UK BB in sz13, and Russia didn’t kill the Ukr fig.

UK should purchase 1 CV, 1 arm, 3 inf and place the CV in sz8 and move all of their fleet to sz8 as well, landing the E Can arm in UK on the way. The bomber can be used to retake Egypt since it is likely that there will only be 1 or 2 German units remaining. The UK DD in sz15 will move to sz14 to prevent the German Med fleet from turning back to help in an Egypt attack on G2.

US should purchase 1 CV, 2 TP, 2 arm and transport 2 inf, 1 art, 1 arm to sz8 unloading in UK. Land the W US fig on the UK CV. move 2 inf from C US to E US, and move the E US bmb/fig to UK.

Russia will move the SS to sz8 on R2.

If Germany attacks the sz8 fleet (1 CV, 1 fig, 1 BB, 1 DD, 1 SS, 4 TP) with the Med fleet and aircraft (1 BB, 1 SS, 1 TP, 6 fig, 1 bmb) it will cost them half their airforce and leave the BB isolated. With the Russians bearing down on them losing a bunch of fighters will be devastating to Germany.

Attacking UK is also a bad idea. 1 BB, 5 inf, 5 arm, 6 fig, 1 bmb vs. 7 inf, 2 art, 4 arm, 3 fig, 1 bmb, 1 AA is approximately a 35%-40% win.

At that point, unifying the fleet is useless because Germany’s navy will be hopelessly outclassed with the addition of the US CV, DD, 2 TP from sz10, the Hawaiian fig, and whatever navy the UK buys in UK2. London will also be safe with the extra 2 inf, 2 arm the US lands on US2.

The block of the German fleet comes from moving the UK DD from sz14 to sz12 which will prevent a German landing in E Can or Brazil. Even if Germany manages to kill the DD without a loss in G2 and combines their fleet in sz7 the UK can place a SS in sz7 to prevent the German TP’s from loading and still have 19-22 IPC’s(+/- India income) to build more navy in sz8.

Seems a little risky for Germany even with maximum forces available let alone if they lose the Ukr fighter or a sub. I wouldn’t try it but if you can make it work, more power to you.

The Channel Dash move, in my opinion, requires a bid in Lib and a naval purchase in the Med. My preference is a CV/TP. If you can get away with it, the SS from sz8 should be combined with the baltic fleet in sz7 instead of helping attack the BB in sz13 but that depends on how many fighters will be needed in Europe on G1. The goal is to have 2-3 fig in WE, 2 fig on the CV, and 1 fig, 1 bmb in Lib after Non-com. It allows for massive attack pressure on sz12 if the Allies land in Algeria and all fighters available for attack in Europe if they don’t.

If the Uk attacks sz7 with air only, you have the option of submerging the subs or fighting it out depending on how many hits the UK scores in round 1. And if they attack with the BB and TP’s, as well, you probably will kill at least a TP on round 1 and submerging the subs will give you an attack force of 1-3 SS, 5-6 fighters, and 1 bmb against whatever is left, plus UK builds, on G2. I don’t mind losing some fighters in that counterattack because the door to Africa will be wide open and the UK has a lot of rebuilding to do before you would see UK ground units in Europe.

Another benefit is that by forcing an attack on sz7 instead of sz5, the UK bomber can’t reach Sink to threaten unprotected Japanese TP’s in sz60/61. A rarely used move but it’s a real pain in the ass to Japan.

Lastly, the CV/TP in the Med is a safety valve. In case the attack on Egypt goes horribly wrong, you aren’t necessarily dead in Africa. Even if the Egyptian fighter survives, an attack on the CV fleet by 1 bmb, 2 fig, 1 DD is only a 50/50 battle. And if the UK should reinforce Egypt and load up in sz15 instead, Germany has enough available forces to destroy both with likely an acceptable amount of losses. Either way, you still have access to Africa and the UK will be basically defanged in Asia and the Pacific. Japan should be happy about that.

So far the Channel Dash has served me well enough to abandon the CV build in the baltic but it’s still a work in progress so I can’t assume it’s viable.

I like it. U-505s plan, that is.

I have to say I disagree with U505 on several points, but the only ones I’ll mention specifically are economics and the German airforce.

I disagree that the $ trade favors the Axis with a preemptive strike.  The boats are a sunk cost; they are there to suicide the Allies or board UK immediately.  There is no point talking about them like a long term asset.  If you can sink a few transports when they die, you’re pretty happy.

The Germans also have the option of pulling back from a naval assault.  And why would you ever leave a lone btl instead of saving German planes?

Any time the UK buys a carrier R1 I’m happy as an Axis player.  I would consider the unification threat forcing that buy to be an immediate benefit to my game.

Why is that?  Because if the carrier is a defensive purchase, you don’t need it until R2.  You would be better served building tra in Z02 R1, then moving up and landing troops R2 and building the carrier in your drop off zone.

Peace