German buys turn one

[squirecam]

@DarthMaximus:

@squirecam:

1 - This is why you have a bid.

But if you bid 6 to Lib, you lose your ftr in Ukr.

If you bid 6 to Ukr, you still lose the ftr in Ukr and now Egy is a serious question mark with 1 inf, 1 arm, 1 ftr, 1 bom in the attack.  That still leaves the DD alive.

IL/DM

1 - Yes, bids are important. 5 v 6. UKR vs Egypt. Please remember that USSR goes first. If USSR does “too well” or “too poorly”, Germany wont bother to buy boats. If its too poor, Germany will simply go for russia when its down.  If its too well, Germany cant afford boats.

2 - USSR has “no idea” that germany is buying a fleet. It must go first. Therefore, how do you know UKR will be attacked? Perhaps its belo/WR ?? Or WR only ?? Or a KJF ?? So you have to take these “precog” factors into account.

3 - With a 19 D in SZ6, you do not “need” 6 fighters. 5 will work. I have been using “6” because the challenge given by JSP told me to give him a scenario. That scenario, in my mind, went belo/WR and so the 6 fighters lived.

4 - Lets try a worst case. Assume IL’s 5 bid. (Tank lybia) UKR fighter is gone. You can still bring inf, 2 tanks and f/b to Egypt (off = 14) vs defense of 9.

Baltic is now trickier. (Switch) has BB, AC, 3 trans, sub and 2 fighters (20). Germany will need (minimum)  4 fighters, bomber, 3 subs, 2-3 transports, DD. (25). (Buy now AC/2tr/sub)

Germany will lose more units, true. BUT, it will still be able to sink and merge in SZ7. With at LEAST a loaded AC BB transport. Still “enough” to defeat the USA counter of DD, trans, fighter bomber.

So there it is, even at a minimum, (switch’s placement), and even using egypt and being down ukr, the merge is still likely. Which is what I have ben saying all along.

[jsp4563]

Squire-

The game thread is open, prove your point.

[Guest]

@squirecam:

as 4 hits left, which is german avg hits round 2.  UK hits 2-3 back.

Your posted USA (DD fighter bomber 1 trans) cannot beat a loaded AC, BB, 2 transports in SZ 7.

Squire you are missing some whole segments of this.

First off, you can;t GET to SZ7 on G2.  You hve to kill a TRN in SZ12, which prevents combat movement beyond SZ12.  And you have a major combat in SZ6.  So after G2, whatever remains of the German fleets is in SZ6 and 12 after G2.  You can;t link your fleets until G3.  If you pull off some AF to kill the TRN to let your Med Fleet NCM through, then you weaken your SZ6 attack; and STILL end up with a fleet split between SZ7 and SZ6.

You are aslo assuming 6 living FIGs as Germany, and that is NOT a safe assumption.  And if you DO put your entire Axis bid in Ukraine AND send the Med Fleet west on G1, then you have a SECOND BRITISH FLEET to deal with that will be in SZ15 on UK2, a fleet of 1 TRN, 2 DST, 1 AC, 2 FIG.

OK, so you JUST go after the UK fleet on G2.  So here is the battle:
Allies:  2 TRN, 1 SUB, 1 BB, 1 AC, 2 FIG
Axis:  4 TRN, 2 SUB, 1 DST, 1 AC, 5 FIG, 1 BOM
According to FROOD, Germany loses all 4 TRN and a SUB in that battle, no more Sea Lion threat due to lack of TRNs.  You just have a loaded AC, a SUB, and a DST sitting in SZ6.

And since the German fleet is split after G2, the USA Counter IS viable against one or the other fleet.  most likely the Med Fleet that has a BB, SUB and TRN.  In that fight the US can bring A MINIMUM of 1 TRN, 1 DST, 1 FIG, 1 BOM and I ahve a 74.8% chance to take out the German ships in SZ12 on USA2.  (they very likely can bring more, the DST that was in SZ20, and any carrier based FIGs built on US1)

And that my friend means NO MERGE on G3, because there is NOTHING TO MERGE.

For Turn 3, UK can amphib anywhere in the MED that they choose with their VERY strong fleet that you cannot counter.  Africa is secure from Germany for the remainder of the game.  London is safe from invasion.  In Turn 2 USA sends their US1 naval builds to SZ8, UK drops new units in SZ8.  Now the German fleet can run away to die later, or you can sacrifice it and the Luftwaffe trying to kill it.

Regardles, Russia is advancing strongly on Germany.  Germany is down significant income to the Russians, and failled to gain income in Africa.  They are lacking land units to maitnain defenses against Russia due to a complete lack of land units purchased on G1, and their AF is out of range to try to trade territories in Central Europe for all of G1, G2 AND G3.  USA and UK are able to begin European landings in Turn 3, same as always.  And Germany’s front to defend against the Allies is longer than normal this early in the game due to the presence of that UK fleet in the Med.

[rjclayton]

@ncscswitch:

Squire you are missing some whole segments of this.

First off, you can;t GET to SZ7 on G2.  You hve to kill a TRN in SZ12, which prevents combat movement beyond SZ12.  And you have a major combat in SZ6.  So after G2, whatever remains of the German fleets is in SZ6 and 12 after G2.  You can;t link your fleets until G3.  If you pull off some AF to kill the TRN to let your Med Fleet NCM through, then you weaken your SZ6 attack; and STILL end up with a fleet split between SZ7 and SZ6.

Switch, I read Squire’s posts, and I think he is suggesting that the baltic AC doesn’t engage SZ6, and the Med BB, trn doesn’t engage SZ12.  So your combat is 1 med sub -> sz 12 and Air, plus rest of baltic fleet -> SZ6.  Then non-combat AC, BB, trn to sz7 and land 2 fighters there.

[Guest]

OK.

That will indeed get you a small force (1 AC, 1 BB, 1 TRN, 2 FIGs) to SZ7 on G2, with a few units left in SZ6, and possibly a SUB in SZ12 as well.  But you are not unifying fleets, you are unifying ELEMENTS of the fleet then… 1 ship out of 5 from the Baltic, 2 ships from the Med.  More than half of the fleet is un-merged.

Of course, since London is not at risk in that scenario, then the entire SZ10 USA fleet can go to SZ12 in USA1, meaning you need much more force than a SUB and a FIG to break through it, and extra US forces in Africa on US1.  And of course the scattered units (the SUB in SZ12, any remaining units in SZ6) are immediately toast to UK2/US2 counters.  Or the US plays as posted above and counters the fleet in SZ7 with a suicide run of 1 TRN, 1 DST, 1 FIG, 1 BOM, taking out the last TRN and a FIG on average leaving only a BB, AC, and FIG in SZ7, and Germany down to 3-4 FIGs alive, with reduced income and unlikely to purchase replacements; and of course, no Sea Lion threat remaining against London.

The next question is…
is a force of 3 ships and some FIGs worth the cost?  And the cost is still the same as posted above:
UK Fleet in the Med
Russian forces holding Ukraine, Belo and trading Eastern/Balkans
No German income in Africa

I’ll grant, you CAN slow the US and UK in the Atlantic by a turn with this, but with the trade offs noted above and with INCREASING DRAMATICALLY the speed with which UK can insert forces in Central Europe to reinforce an already strengthened Russia.  Personally, I think it is a VERY bad and risky move when it works, and a fatal for Germany move when it fails.

[squirecam]

@ncscswitch:

OK.

That will indeed get you a small force (1 AC, 1 BB, 1 TRN, 2 FIGs) to SZ7 on G2, with a few units left in SZ6, and possibly a SUB in SZ12 as well.  But you are not unifying fleets, you are unifying ELEMENTS of the fleet then… 1 ship out of 5 from the Baltic, 2 ships from the Med.  More than half of the fleet is un-merged.

This is what I have been saying. The fleet can merge. Of course it has ben damaged. But its elements merge.

Of course, since London is not at risk in that scenario, then the entire SZ10 USA fleet can go to SZ12 in USA1, meaning you need much more force than a SUB and a FIG to break through it, and extra US forces in Africa on US1.

DD + 2 transports are (5). Sub + fighter (lybia, sice only 4 were used above) + trans fodder = 5. Its at least an equal battle.

And please, FOR THE LAST TIME, the whole point of this exercise was not discussing a counter, whether it is “optimal”, or anything else. The point has been, is there an absolute 100% block that JSP has that prevents both a merge and London. Or can the germans force a merge/london if they want to.

Now the upteenth hypo you have here switch STILL gives Germany decent odds to merge, PLUS decent odds of already having the Egypt canal closed. (14 v 9 R1). So still there is no 100% effective block posted, which was the point of this discussion. I’m tired of repeating it and tired of reading "well what about the counter. PLEASE stick with the hypo.

There is a “precog” block I will post

[squirecam]

@jsp4563:

Squire-

The game thread is open, prove your point.

I’ve proven it here, thanks. Since you wont live up to your word, I see no reason to discuss anything further with you.

[squirecam]

Question - What can be done to give the best shot at preventing a merge AND prevent the axis takeover from London, given an ac/3 transport buy.

Prior solutions

a - (switch) AC/BB/3 trans/sub/2 fighters in SZ 6, and either Trans or DD+2 trans in SZ 12. While this adeuately protects London, even down a fighter Germany HAS ODDS of merging, with at least a BB, AC and a transport.

b - (JSP) JSP, who started this discussion but has not posted any solutions since, put a DD in SZ6 and SZ 12, and a BB/AC, 2 trans and sub in SZ 7. This had the effect of Germany foregoing a merge, because London was wide open. His modified edition of 1 inf and 1 tank still failed to add enough troops to London.

UK had 3 inf, 3 tanks an art, 2 bombers, fighter and AA. (23) Germany has 4 Inf 4 arm, 6 fighters and a bomber. (38, 35 - aa loss). Even adding one more inf/art to UK from USA only makes it 27 vs 35.Â

The fleet DD’s prevent subs from passing through, so the most that can be put into SZ 7 would be 6 fighters + air (22) vs AC/BB/2Trans/Sub/2fighters (19). Certainly a battle that can go multiple ways.

Therefore, I believe the solutiuon with the best chance requires precognition.

1 - USSR R1 - buy 2 fighters. Fly other 2 to London (London Defense now 35 vs 35).
2 - USSR R2 - One or both of the second pair of fighters can fly to London and give it O/D punch strength superiority.

[Guest]

Squire,

Now you are down to TWO ships in SZ7 (the Med BB, and the Baltic AC), out of a force of 11 ships (5 TRN, 3 SUBs, 1 DST, 1 BB, 1 AC).

I do NOT call 2 ships out of 11 a “Merge”, I call it a sucessful destruction of $76 IPC’s of German naval units, plus possibly a few FIGs splashed also.

As for closing the Suez… you MIGHT be able to with no Africa bid (as you stated you bid heavy in Ukraine to TRY to save a FIG) and with 1 FIG (since Ukraine still likely dead) from Balkans to help the Libya force.  But the odds are pretty long:
With 1 FIG only 28% chance to win, only a 10.8% chance to close tha canal.
With 2 FIG a 72% chance to clear and a 21.4% chance to close the canal; unless you want to sacrifce those FIGs, which of course reduces your combat punch for the merge attempt.

But of course, ANY FIGs you use in Egypt means FIGs that can NOT reach SZ6 for battle, unless you plan on moving the AC to SZ6 to recover them.  And THAT means your AC is NOT meeting up with the BB in SZ7.

This is why JSP is asking for it to be done in a GAME.  Because each thing you put forward leaves some serious gaps elsewhere that are detrimental to Germany.

You simply CANNOT do ALL of the following:
1.  Take Egypt to close the canal
2.  Threaten London
3.  Take out the UK/USSR fleet in SZ6
4.  Break through the US ship(s) in SZ12
5.  Preserve your AF
6.  Have any significant number of ships (3 or more) to actually “merge” in SZ7
7.  Not have Russia parked outside Berlin by R3
8.  Not get kicked out of Africa on Turn 2
9.  Prevent US/UK landings in Europe by Turn 3
10.  Do more than “run away” with the couple of ships alive from SZ7

So it is kind of a moot point.

Sure, you CAN get a couple of ships to SZ7 but at GREAT cost to Germany, for NO real gain and for serious losses elsewhere.

And the final question…
Do 2 ships out of 11 equal “merge”? 
Not in my book.

And on your final post…
Since you are NOT attacking London in G2 (as you specified above, you ONLY merge in G2), your threat analysis in your last post to London is COMPLETELY wrong as the G3 threat you posted ignores any UK2 purchase, and any USA2 transfer of forces.  Not to mention the fact that those TRN’s became North Sea Reefs in the SZ6 battle in G2 (unless you plan on sacrifcing your entire Air Force to save them).

[squirecam]

@ncscswitch:

Squire,

Now you are down to TWO ships in SZ7 (the Med BB, and the Baltic AC), out of a force of 11 ships (5 TRN, 3 SUBs, 1 DST, 1 BB, 1 AC).

I do NOT call 2 ships out of 11 a “Merge”, I call it a sucessful destruction of $76 IPC’s of German naval units, plus possibly a few FIGs splashed also.

As for closing the Suez… you MIGHT be able to with no Africa bid (as you stated you bid heavy in Ukraine to TRY to save a FIG) and with 1 FIG (since Ukraine still likely dead) from Balkans to help the Libya force.  But the odds are pretty long:
With 1 FIG only 28% chance to win, only a 10.8% chance to close tha canal.
With 2 FIG a 72% chance to clear and a 21.4% chance to close the canal; unless you want to sacrifce those FIGs, which of course reduces your combat punch for the merge attempt.

But of course, ANY FIGs you use in Egypt means FIGs that can NOT reach SZ6 for battle, unless you plan on moving the AC to SZ6 to recover them.  And THAT means your AC is NOT meeting up with the BB in SZ7.

This is why JSP is asking for it to be done in a GAME.  Because each thing you put forward leaves some serious gaps elsewhere that are detrimental to Germany.Â

You simply CANNOT do ALL of the following:
1.  Take Egypt to close the canal
2.  Threaten London
3.  Take out the UK/USSR fleet in SZ6
4.  Break through the US ship(s) in SZ12
5.  Preserve your AF
6.  Have any significant number of ships (3 or more) to actually “merge” in SZ7
7.  Not have Russia parked outside Berlin by R3
8.  Not get kicked out of Africa on Turn 2
9.  Prevent US/UK landings in Europe by Turn 3
10.  Do more than “run away” with the couple of ships alive from SZ7

So it is kind of a moot point.

Sure, you CAN get a couple of ships to SZ7 but at GREAT cost to Germany, for NO real gain and for serious losses elsewhere.

And the final question…
Do 2 ships out of 11 equal “merge”? 
Not in my book.

And on your final post…
Since you are NOT attacking London in G2 (as you specified above, you ONLY merge in G2), your threat analysis in your last post to London is COMPLETELY wrong as the G3 threat you posted ignores any UK2 purchase, and any USA2 transfer of forces.  Not to mention the fact that those TRN’s became North Sea Reefs in the SZ6 battle in G2 (unless you plan on sacrifcing your entire Air Force to save them).

And you ignore the fact that USSR must have precog abilities. WHAT IF THEY DONT NORMALLY ATTACK UKRAINE ANYWAY !!

Many people dont. And with an Africa bid, Egypt is easier.

I posted the WORST case, losing UKR fighter and having tank africa bid, and still I showed that odds closed the canal and odds showed a merge.

If russia does things USSR1 to cause headaches, then GERMANY WONT BUY THIS FLEET. They will do other moves. But no one knows what USSR will do, and IF USSR takes WR and Belo, then 6 fighters do exist. USSR does not know this purchase is happening. Which is why a “game” doesnt show anything, because it has precognition built in, plus the “dice”.

Here has been detailed O/D punch discussion and even “worst case” scenario moves.

And the threat to london is G2, not on G3.Â

[Guest]

There is no real threat to London on G2 with the block that I posted.

You can either use your AF to support the naval battle, or to support the landing force.  But you need ALL of your AF to be sure to get through the SZ6 fleet and not lose your loaded TRNs.  Pull unit away from that SZ6 fight, and you can’t break through to London at all.

That also means that you can;t use FIGs to help with SZ12, so your Med Fleet can’t NCM to SZ7
And since you have FIGs in Africa from the Egypt fight, your AC has to go to SZ6 to recover FIGs if you want to use those Africa FIGs for SZ6.
Both prevent a G2 merge.

There are simply TOO MANY ALLIED FORCES PRESENT at the start of G2 to do EVERYTHING that you need to do in order to make this work.  SOMETHING (or several somethings) have to give if you want to get ANY units to SZ7.

[squirecam]

@ncscswitch:

There is no real threat to London on G2 with the block that I posted.

You can either use your AF to support the naval battle, or to support the landing force.  But you need ALL of your AF to be sure to get through the SZ6 fleet and not lose your loaded TRNs.  Pull unit away from that SZ6 fight, and you can’t break through to London at all.

That also means that you can;t use FIGs to help with SZ12, so your Med Fleet can’t NCM to SZ7
And since you have FIGs in Africa from the Egypt fight, your AC has to go to SZ6 to recover FIGs if you want to use those Africa FIGs for SZ6.
Both prevent a G2 merge.

There are simply TOO MANY ALLIED FORCES PRESENT at the start of G2 to do EVERYTHING that you need to do in order to make this work.  SOMETHING (or several somethings) have to give if you want to get ANY units to SZ7.

Where are you getting loaded transports from???

The purchase on G1 threatens london and a merge. Thats it. On G2 its either london if the buildis in SZ 7, or attack fleet if in SZ6. No one is saving four loaded transports for the sea battle. (This is what happens when you come in the middle of a thread).

This is getting rather repetitive. But I’ve shown how you cannot stop both w/o USSR help. Which was the whole point of this exercise.

[Guest]

Right, you can;t do both.

If the Allies play the block I posted, you get 2 ships (and 2 FIGs) in SZ7 at the end of G2 out of ELEVEN ships you started with (the rest have all been, or are about to be, sunk).  By Turn 3, the threat of Sea Lion is gone, as is Germany’s economy.

To admit your point…
YES, you can get 2 (MAYBE 3) ships to SZ7 at the end of G2.

But to make MY point…
WHY BOTHER???

[General_D.Fox]

This is a really entertaining thread.  And I’d pay money to see JSP and Squire get it on.  Even if they either did or did not prove their theories, it would still be a decent game of top competitors who are skilled.  So boys, even if you don’t prove your posts, you’d entertain the community with some excellent game play.

[squirecam]

@ncscswitch:

Right, you can;t do both.

If the Allies play the block I posted, you get 2 ships (and 2 FIGs) in SZ7 at the end of G2 out of ELEVEN ships you started with (the rest have all been, or are about to be, sunk).  By Turn 3, the threat of Sea Lion is gone, as is Germany’s economy.

To admit your point…
YES, you can get 2 (MAYBE 3) ships to SZ7 at the end of G2.Â

But to make MY point…
WHY BOTHER???

Then we’ve both made our points and we can finally drop this.

[Guest]

LOL, fair enough.

Though to be honest, I think the main “sticking point” was the definition of “merge”.

You appear to have been saying it was any linkage of 1 or more ships from both the Med and Baltic.
JSP and I seem to have been arguing a large number of ships making the link, sicne it really isn;t a fleet merge if it is only 2 ships.

[newpaintbrush]

@jsp4563:

Let’s just back track for a second.  My original post on G2 fleet unification was as follows:

@jsp4563:

G2 fleet unification in SZ7-I have yet to have an opponent pull this off.  As the allied player I can see it coming and no allied player worth his salt would allow it (IMHO) and it is easily countered.

This is based on an “Actual Game”.  Squire wants to claim that it is possible but his strategy for doing so is completely unrealistic in real game play.  What German player is going to forgo an attack on Egypt and the UK med DD allowing the UK Indian fleet to swoop into the Med.  It’s ridiculous.  Squire knows this, that’s why he won’t “Step up to the MIC”.

Libya bid or Algeria/Libya bid combined with Libyan forces and German air mean Anglo-Egypt is lost G1.

With Med fleet taking Gibraltar, UK counter is 1 destr 1 bomber vs 1 btl 1 trns 1 sub.  Caspian Sub papers recommend losing fighter rather than sub for the Med fleet west move.

"And I’d pay money to see JSP and Squire get it on. "

I wouldn’t.  I find aggression distasteful.

I’d pay money to see Jen in a bikini tho.

[newpaintbrush]

@ncscswitch:

LOL, fair enough.

Though to be honest, I think the main “sticking point” was the definition of “merge”.

You appear to have been saying it was any linkage of 1 or more ships from both the Med and Baltic.
JSP and I seem to have been arguing a large number of ships making the link, sicne it really isn;t a fleet merge if it is only 2 ships.

I think the main sticking point is that you are having two entirely different arguments.

One argument is about merging, and stopping the merge.

The other argument is about merging, and the COST of stopping the merge.

[Guest]

My only response to that Paint is that… early in the game the Allies have cash to burn, the Axis does not.

[jsp4563]

“Upon due consideration of the problem and all possible “options”, my original recommendation stands! Meeting adjourned!”

@jsp4563:

Channel Dash-Waste of a fleet, the UK & US airforces will make mince meat out of it before you can get to the med.

G2 fleet unification in SZ7-I have yet to have an opponent pull this off.  As the allied player I can see it coming and no allied player worth his salt would allow it (IMHO) and it is easily countered.

G1 buy with belo/WR opening no bid. Baltic CV, 3art, 4inf (this is 1 less unit than the 8inf buy but increase your offensive punch from 8 to 13).