No, not one Russian INF left in Bury…
One Japan INF landed to Bury on J1 (after the Russians pull out).
The SFE counter variant works nicely though, especially against a Japan force that is TRN heavy instead of IC based…
Well, on J1 I’m assuming 2 infantry, 1 fighter in China; 3 infantry, 1 aa gun in India, 6 infantry in Bury and Japan has 1 transport.
Now, I assume you meant to kill that Russian stack on R1, that means you have to forgo some battles elsewhere. Maybe even go a bit on the light side to some naval engagements you have to deal with.
On R2, I usually either put 1 infantry into an empty Manchuria and pull 5 infantry back to Yak, or I pull 6 infantry back to yak.
Actually it isn´t such a bad isea to let Japan hit your 6 inf, 2 Arm in Manchuria on J2, since Japan will losse most of the forces he attacks with (usually having 1-2 units left)
It still slows Japan down a lot…
@Nix:
Actually it isn´t such a bad isea to let Japan hit your 6 inf, 2 Arm in Manchuria on J2, since Japan will losse most of the forces he attacks with (usually having 1-2 units left)
It still slows Japan down a lot…
1, Germany will be doing very well because of abscence of 2 Russian tanks from the front
2. A weak force is much better than NO force, which is what Russia will have.
Germany can´t do anything significant on the Russian front, Russia have more troops to bring in if they try to walk on cauccasus.
Atleast the first 3-4 Rounds.
Then UK/US will land troops to reinforce.
Actually Nix, that is not completely accurate.
The scenario above was 2 ARM sent east to fight Japan, that is half of Russia’s ARM normally used to Round 1 and Round 2 attacks. And with 2 ARM pulled out of the mix, Ukraine just became a MASSIVE gamble. In fact, sending EVERYTHING else possible against Ukraine in R1 gives a 1 in 3 that Germany will keep Ukraine, and a 50% likelyhood of Russia losign one or both FIGs (depending on if they choose “take with land” and lose a FIG ahead of ARM in order to take Ukraine.
That means that in a 2 ARM east R1, you are going to ahve to change your attack to Belo and West Russia. And Belo will be thin (1-2 INF on average) and West Russia will be less of a stack than normal (4 INF, 2 ART, 2 ARM)
That leaves Germany with a strong Ukraine force, and all of their air forces.
Amphib into Karelia, perhaps even ARM blitz to Archangel if Russia did not leave a blocker in Karelia.
Take back Belo
And decide if killing 6 INF and claiming the Russian IC in Caucuses is worth while.
Or if I’ll just skip Africa this game and destroy the West Russia Stack on R1, leaving Russia with only 10-11 INF from Russia west, and their only ARM sitting in Yakut.
And the German front lines would look something like this after G1…
Karelia: 4 INF
Belo: 1-2 INF
West Russia: 2 ARM
Ukraine: 2 INF, 2 ART, 3 ARM, AF
Russia is out-gunned, down income, and has a threat to Cuacuses in Ukraine as well as needing to re-take West Russia and reinforce Archangel… all with only 2 FIGs to provide punch to their dozen 1’s.
That is a pretty weak place to start as Russia…
@Nix:
Germany can´t do anything significant on the Russian front, Russia have more troops to bring in if they try to walk on cauccasus.
Atleast the first 3-4 Rounds.
Then UK/US will land troops to reinforce.
I can see 6 inf 2 armor in the east with a KJF. Maybe. But with a KGF (you say UK/US will land troops)?
Are you thinking of sending a steady stream of Russian reinforcements east? Which solves Japan’s logistical problems of getting infantry to the front lines quickly? (Which I think is not optimal.)
Or is there something else?
Because I really don’t see why you would send an isolated force of 6 inf 2 arm to French Indochina, where it can be countered by say 5 inf 1 art 2 tank 2 fighter 1 bomber plus battleship support shot(s), given a 3 transport purchase with Japan (alternatively 2 transports and an industrial complex at French Indochina yields a somewhat more tank-heavy force).
Tell me what you’re thinking. Maybe all the Japan players in your area end up building NO transports on J1 to avoid UK bomber attacks from China, because they don’t keep a battleship escort at the seazone east of Japan, using the battleship to support the attack on the US?
Let me elaborate, since you are “angered” :wink:
I buy 3 Inf, 3 Arm.
I will hit WR with everything i can exept the 2 arms that go to Yakut. (and 1 inf blocker in karelia)
Leaves me with: And let´s say i lose the more or less average 3 Infs. We have 8 Inf, 2 Art, 2 Arm and left in WR (+ 1 AA gun).
" figs to Russia, 1 Inf in Karelia s a blocker.
6 inf Buryatia, 2 Arm Yakut, 2 Inf goes to Cauccasus, 4 Inf to Russia(from Novo and Evenki)
I´ll land 2 Figs i Russia and place my purchased troops as follow.
3 inf in Cauccasus for total of 5 inf, 3 Arm in Russia for a total of 4 iNf, 3 Arm, 2 Figs.
WR can be hit by Germany with; 6 Inf, 1 Art, 3 Arm, 5 figs, 1 bomber. (if they dont attack anything else)
If Germany does that they will probably win (94% chans, but will have either AF left or at best 1 art, 3 arm and AF), but to a huge cost, and UK/USA are having a grand party in Westrussia on Round 2.
If Germany pulls forces into Cauccasus they will be anihalated by Russia on R2.
If Germany skips the 5 Figs there is only a 30% chans of a win.
If germany does not hit me, UK will build an IC in India (if they kill the inf in FIC), but USA will not build Sinkiang IC (i think that is better to put it all in a navy towards europe)
So it´s a SJF. (and if it goes really good in the start i might purhase an American IC anyway.
For Nix:
So you ONLY attack West Russia on R1, leaving Belo and Ukraine untouched. That leaves Germany 6 FIGs to work with. I probably will NOT hit West Russia in that example. You are looking at a Karelia Stack from Germany as my counter…
For whoever said "move an INF into empty Manchuria…
I don;t leave Manch empty in that scenario. I move my TRN to SZ61 and land Japan troops to manch, build my IC there, and land all of my FIGs there after smashing China.
Go ahead, hit Manch. I’ll lose a couple of FIGs, you will lose your entire Eastern force. Now Japan has a free ride west, with no Russian forces east of Moscow…
But still has a pain in the ass India, especially so if youo lose 3-4 figs on R2.
Gongrats on your “advance”.
And if you move your forces to yakut you will be hit by Russian forces (if you don´t move in Force).
in my opinion it´s worth it for Russia, but in the end this is i belive a despute about prioritys, i don´t think there is a “right” or “optimal” solution here…
But what do i know; i constantly lose games here (wins a little more at Triple A 50/50 atm), but win maybe 7/10 in real world (wich of course is quite different from playing online…)
:-P :-P
To be honest, I’m having a bad game with the allies if the Axis don’t loose at least 2 fighters on round 1. And they should be loosing at least 3, plus any they loose at Pearl, if any.
And Switch, you’d be surprised how many people leave Manch Empty. Only reason I put 6 infantry in Bury…that and it forces you to choose between 1 IPC Buryatia with 18 IPC of units on it or 2 IPC China with 16 IPC of units on it.
@Nix:
Let me elaborate, since you are “angered” :wink:
Who’s angered?
And why is my crack pipe missing?
To be honest, I’m having a bad game with the allies if the Axis don’t loose at least 2 fighters on round 1. And they should be loosing at least 3, plus any they loose at Pearl, if any.
And Switch, you’d be surprised how many people leave Manch Empty. Only reason I put 6 infantry in Bury…that and it forces you to choose between 1 IPC Buryatia with 18 IPC of units on it or 2 IPC China with 16 IPC of units on it.
I rarely lose a fighter with Germany at all unless Germany attacks and holds the Ukraine. After that, I might lose a fighter at Pearl Harbor.
In MOST of my games, all I lose in the initial three turns for air is 1 German fighter tops. MAYBE 2 German fighters and 1 Japanese fighter if I am having really horrible luck.
There is no choice between Burytia and China. That US fighter must be destroyed.
@Nix:
Let me elaborate, since you are “angered” :wink:
I buy 3 Inf, 3 Arm.
I will hit WR with everything i can exept the 2 arms that go to Yakut. (and 1 inf blocker in karelia)
Leaves me with: And let´s say i lose the more or less average 3 Infs. We have 8 Inf, 2 Art, 2 Arm and left in WR (+ 1 AA gun).
" figs to Russia, 1 Inf in Karelia s a blocker.
6 inf Buryatia, 2 Arm Yakut, 2 Inf goes to Cauccasus, 4 Inf to Russia(from Novo and Evenki)
I´ll land 2 Figs i Russia and place my purchased troops as follow.
3 inf in Cauccasus for total of 5 inf, 3 Arm in Russia for a total of 4 iNf, 3 Arm, 2 Figs.
WR can be hit by Germany with; 6 Inf, 1 Art, 3 Arm, 5 figs, 1 bomber. (if they dont attack anything else)
If Germany does that they will probably win (94% chans, but will have either AF left or at best 1 art, 3 arm and AF), but to a huge cost, and UK/USA are having a grand party in Westrussia on Round 2.
If Germany pulls forces into Cauccasus they will be anihalated by Russia on R2.
If Germany skips the 5 Figs there is only a 30% chans of a win.
If germany does not hit me, UK will build an IC in India (if they kill the inf in FIC), but USA will not build Sinkiang IC (i think that is better to put it all in a navy towards europe)
So it´s a SJF. (and if it goes really good in the start i might purhase an American IC anyway.
If I have any kind of African bid, I probably go with heavy tank build in Berlin (maybe not eight, but lots of tanks), send the Med fleet west to take Gibraltar, and consolidate at Belorussia with a couple fighters (which I can now afford to do because I can send 1 sub 1 btl 1 trns 1 inf to Gibraltar with even a fighter escort), plus move most of the rest of German forces to E. Europe (and the usual hit on Anglo-Egypt). Now Belorussia and West Russia are stuck with stacks that can’t attack each other (Russia CAN attack, but it’ll be pretty expensive, and Germany can counter hard), but now Russia has the additional problem that any heavy attack at Ukriane is immediately counterable by German Med fleet plus Eastern Europe plus Belorussia stack, or Germany could respond by attacking West Russia or even Karelia. It’s almost impossible for Russia to make a big defensive stack against Karelia, so E. Europe infantry can march into Karelia next turn to threaten Karelia-Archangel-Moscow, forcing Russia to abandon the profitable Caucasus/West Russia/Ukraine holding.
Alternatively, use the German Med fleet to secure Anglo-Egypt.
If Germany secures Anglo-Egypt, the Allies can mount a quick Atlantic offense, but Germany can counter with pure infantry/tank German builds while Germany and Japan concentrate on Moscow.
If Germany does not secure Anglo-Egypt, the Allies can reclaim Egypt, but will have a much harder time bringing their IPCs to bear before the Germans and Japanese make a hash out of the Russian forces.
–
IF there is no African bid, the German position is far weaker, but I think two plus fighters plus massed units at Belorussia still forces Russia to be very passive.
New Paint:
I’ve been playing with a new opening. I’ve found that in recent games I’ve been to reactionary and not proactive enough (aka Aggressive.) I actually blame NoMercy for this because he made the statement that he could aways goad me into making attacks on his terms because he knew I’d be overly aggressive.
Here’s the new open:
3 Infantry, 1 Fighter from Karelia to E. Europe
1 Armor from Archangelsk to E. Europe
Overall %*: A. survives: 51.3% D. survives: 40.9% No survivors:8%
Not Stellar odds, I’ll admit, but let’s work through the rest.
3 Infantry from Archangelsk to W. Russia
3 Infantry, 1 Artillery, 1 Armor from Russia to W. Russia
Overall %*: A. survives: 98% D. survives: 1.6% No survivors:0%
Odds are super here! Might even consider reducing the attack, but I don’t see what else I could use the missing fodder for…
3 Infantry, 1 Artillery, 1 Armor from Caucasus to Ukraine
1 Armor, 1 Fighter from Russia to Ukraine
Overall %*: A. survives: 63% D. survives: 32.3% No survivors:5%
Again, the odds are not stellar.
Interesting thing here is you are not risking anything with Russia you would not have lost anway. And actually, you have a much higher potential gain then normally.
England follows that up with a 3 infantry from India, 1 Fighter from SZ 35 assault on FIC.
Overall %*: A. survives: 46.6% D. survives: 44% No survivors:9%
So you have a very good chance as the allies to kill 3 axis fighters on Round 1 with no losses you would not otherwise have sustained using more traditional attacks and expecting traditional counter-attacks.
Now yes, the Axis could stop all these attacks with minor bids, but how often do you see 9 IPC bids going for 1 infantry in FIC, 1 Infantry in Ukraine and 1 Infantry in E. Europe? Why? Because no one expects it.
3 Infantry, 1 Fighter from Karelia to E. Europe
1 Armor from Archangelsk to E. Europe
Overall %*: A. survives: 51.3% D. survives: 40.9% No survivors:8%
- percentages may not total 100 due to rounding.
Not Stellar odds, I’ll admit, but let’s work through the rest.
3 Infantry from Archangelsk to W. Russia
3 Infantry, 1 Artillery, 1 Armor from Russia to W. Russia
Overall %*: A. survives: 98% D. survives: 1.6% No survivors:0%
- percentages may not total 100 due to rounding.
Odds are super here! Might even consider reducing the attack, but I don’t see what else I could use the missing fodder for…
3 Infantry, 1 Artillery, 1 Armor from Caucasus to Ukraine
1 Armor, 1 Fighter from Russia to Ukraine
Overall %*: A. survives: 63% D. survives: 32.3% No survivors:5%
- percentages may not total 100 due to rounding.
Jennifer, you stole Rainynite’s opening. I actually don’t think it is very effective unless all the battles go very well for the Allies. Russia is left far too exposed to counterattack, especially if not all the attacks go well. And while you are correct that you don’t often see infantry in each of FIC, EEur and Ukraine an infantry or two in Ukraine is quite common, in which case your attack odds decrease significantly.
SS
The odds of success in all 4 attacks…
.513 x .98 x .63 x .466
14.76%
Those are abysmal odds. Just try Sea Lion on G1, your odds are not THAT miuch worse at 6.3%
Actually, with an 8 IPC bid and an extra TRN in the Baltic, you can increase the odds of Sea Lion G1 all the way to around 34%, better than 1 in 3. Whereas with ANY bid the odds of that 4 territory Allied strike drops down into the low single digits (worse than Sea Lion)
But hey, if tyou want to set up game boards and do the 1 in 20 for the quick win, knock yourself out :-D
You’re taking odds of success to own the land. You need to add in the odds of success of mutual destruction as well, because as the allies, I don’t need the land as much as I need to demolish your massive standing armies.
(59.3% + 98% + 68% + 54.6%)/4 = 69.98% chance of winning if you don’t want to own the land.
(51.3% + 98% + 63% + 46.6%)/4 = 64.73% to own the land in all 4 attacks.
Do you want to risk the damage inflicted by that opening on your army? Bearing in mind the allies start with a very significant financial advantage and it’s going to take time for you to get there.
So the chances are actually significantly higher then you describe. (You made an algebraic error. An average is not the product of all four attacks but the sum of all attacks divided by the number of instances.)
And yes, I did lift that from Rainynite. I think it’s a pretty strong opening, even if you fail, you cuase significant damage.
Even to clear the land it is only a 21.58% chance.
To figure total odds, it is not an AVERAGE of the percentages, but a multiplication of them in decimel form.
hence .593 x .98 x .68 x .546 = .21576 or 21.58%
and for your second line of figures the result is as I previously posted… 14.76%
It is a SEQUENTIAL SERIES of odds, thus the multiplication.
