AndrewAAgamer (Allies) vs. Germany (Ragnell804)

AndrewAAGamer

TripleA Manual Gamesave Post: Germans round 8

TripleA Manual Gamesave Post for game: D-Day 2 fix

Game History

Round: 8

    Germans Combat Move - Germans

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Savegame

Ragnell804

@AndrewAAGamer

Caen
inf [dice 1d6<=1]
inf [dice 1d6<=1]
arty [dice 1d6<=1]
arty [dice 1d6<=1]
tank [dice 1d6<=1]
tank [dice 1d6<=1]
tank [dice 1d6<=1]

dicebot

1d6<=1: 4; Hits: 0
1d6<=1: 3; Hits: 0
1d6<=1: 3; Hits: 0
1d6<=1: 2; Hits: 0
1d6<=1: 3; Hits: 0
1d6<=1: 6; Hits: 0
1d6<=1: 3; Hits: 0

Ragnell804

@AndrewAAGamer

G20
inf [dice 4d6<=1]
inf [dice 4d6<=1]
inf [dice 4d6<=1]
inf [dice 4d6<=1]
inf [dice 4d6<=1]
arty [dice 4d6<=1]

dicebot

4d6<=1: 5, 6, 6, 5; Hits: 0
4d6<=1: 1, 5, 5, 1; Hits: 2
4d6<=1: 2, 4, 5, 2; Hits: 0
4d6<=1: 6, 4, 1, 3; Hits: 1
4d6<=1: 1, 6, 1, 3; Hits: 2
4d6<=1: 6, 2, 6, 2; Hits: 0

Ragnell804

@AndrewAAGamer

Rolling for the units that got strafed in Caen which shouldn’t have been.

inf [dice 1d6<=1]
arty [dice 1d6<=2]
tank [dice 1d6<=3]

dicebot

1d6<=1: 3; Hits: 0
1d6<=2: 3; Hits: 0
1d6<=3: 4; Hits: 0

Ragnell804

@AndrewAAGamer

Ger 8 Combat.tsvg

AndrewAAGamer

Okay - thank you for the test. Allies cannot take Caen this Turn so the game is over.

We proved the game is balanced. Appreciate your time in checking this…

Ragnell804

@AndrewAAGamer

Balanced??? Please explain this logic that you somehow formulated off of 1 game.

AndrewAAGamer

You don’t see it is balanced? Interesting.

The Allies had an outlier at a start in the most important battle of the game; Omaha Beach. As you can see by the chart below 65% of the time no German units escape from Omaha Beach. Add in another at least 5%, from the Blue 13%, and that makes it 70% of the time no German units survive Omaha Beach. This, BTW, matches my DDay gaming experience.

In our game 6 German units survived to fight on, only a single unit was killed. That means, at the start of Turn 2, the Germans had 6 MORE units on the board than they should have 70% of the time. At the beginning of Turn 9 there are 14 German units still on the board, one being a blockhouse so really only 13 combat units. Thus, without those 6 extra units there would be only 7 German units on the board which means the Allies would have won.

The above is not even taking into consideration that the Germans had 6 more units firing at the Allies during the game which obviously would have had an effect too.

And, since the overall dice came out fairly even, the dice during the game was not affecting this sole outlier. As you can see the Axis shot slightly better than the Allies…

Ragnell804

@AndrewAAGamer

First, the Axis will typically have 2 BH to fire onto the US units there. Every Allied player I have seen until you have used the Naval Bombardments to clear out the UK beaches to try and save the tanks from being destroyed, as it happened in this game. Because why would anyone not want to protect 3 of 14 available tanks, most of which do not get onto the board until the middle part of the game?
That, in my opinion, shows some difference in experience since the allied tanks are a valuable resource to protect.

The main point here is that, with your math, the odds of the US having more than 1 arty walk into Omaha are 50% at best. And the Axis mostly have 2 BH to fight with, which changes your numbers.

Second, there is approximately a 33% chance that 6 dice rolling for a 1 will miss, which is common enough to say your attack into Omaha, at least with the inf, was not getting hosed by missing. But the Germans getting slightly warm dice, added to the lack of hits.

Third, I did not have 6 more units on the board. Those 6 units were on the board from the start, and Omaha Beach is not set up for the Allies to walk over like Juno and Sword Beach. Using your logic, those units walking away from the beach also led to more Allied units surviving later in the game to fire more since you did not have to fight through them on the first few turns. As you would have in most other games. Your math also fails to consider that I can bring a tank, inf, or arty in on G1 to help push the odds in my favor to get those units free from the locked battle at Omaha. Which again changes your math and leads to their escape or the UK having to come in to bog them down again which affects you ability to power project to Caen.

Yes, I had fewer German units on the board. But my play was also based on what resources I had available. Should I have had fewer units at my disposal, I would not have made the earlier attacks that I did since I could see from the board state at round 5, I was in a winning position.

This was one game, so how can you say the game is balanced? Based on the results thus far the game is 100% in favor of the Germans as they are 1-0 right now. Why don’t we play another to put your money where your mouth is to see if you can make it 1-1?

AndrewAAgamer (Allies) vs. Germany (Ragnell804)

TripleA Manual Gamesave Post: Germans round 8

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