Russia, round 1!

yes i think that Russia in these play should definitely attack West Russia-maybe retreat if necessarily
because the average chances are that Eastern Europe will be taken if you send there only one fighter; you will have to sacrifice a fighter to capture the territory with a tank, but if you send two fighters there one has to land in Karelia(it is doomed there)
-West Russia can be attacked with 6 inf 1 art 1 fig; average chances are that it will be taken with 2 inf 1 art and there is a fighter also
-Ukraine can be attacked with 3 inf 1 art 3 tanks; average chances are that Ukraine will be taken with 2 tanks
-so the odds for all the battles are definitely in Russia´s favour; the battle in Eastern Europe is a bit hard, but Russia can make it

this is the situation in Russian lands:
Karelia and Archangel are empty
West Russia is defended by 2 inf, 1art, 1AA
UKraine is defended by 2 tanks
Russia is defended by 8 inf
Caucaus is defended by 6 inf, 1fig, 1AA

Russia has lost;10 inf, 1 art, 1 ten, 1fig(units that worth 49 IPC)
Germany has lost;9 inf, 2 art, 3 tanks 2 fig(units that worth 70 IPC)
Germany faces the loss of two fighters and it will loose either a sub or a fighter when fighting the UK bat

Russia has collected 32 IPC; so it can buy 10 infantry in round 2

…Germany can take:Karelia with 5 inf;Eastern Europe with 2 tanks; Ukraine with 3 tanks and one inf(one takes the hit from the two Russian tanks); West Russia with one inf(because of the two hits from the Russian defence)-and there is still 1/3 chance that Germany will loose another figher-bbecauseWest Russia cannot be taken without air support
(Germany´s 3 IPC bid was used to place an inf in Libya-so there is one free fig and bom which can attack West Russia)

this is the situation in German lands:
Norway and Balkans are empty
Western Europe is defended with 4 inf, 1 art, 1 or 2 fig; Germany can leave one inf more if there is only one fighter there
Germany?-depends on the buy
Southern Europe?-depends on the buy
Eastern Europe is defended with 2 tanks
Karelia is defended with either 4 or 5 inf, it depends on Western Europe needs
West Russia is defended with 1 inf
Ukraine is defended with 3 tanks and one 1nf
Belorussia is empty

on UK´s first move it attacks Karelia with 2 inf, 1art, ten, 2fig, 1bom, 1bat-Germany looses 4 or 5 inf and kills 2 UK infantry
UK can buy enough land units to defend(if Germany bought only one 1AC or spent even less IPC to sea units)
2 UK fighters can land in Archangel and UK bomber can land in Novosibirsk-to pose a threat to Japanese sea units
On it´s second move Russia can take:West Russia with 4inf(3 if German inf hits); Ukraine with 2inf

the situation in Russian lands after its second move:
Karelia is defended with 1 UK art, ten
Archangel is defended with 2 UK fig and 2 Russian inf(which came from Russia)
West Russia is defended with 3 or 4 inf
Ukraine is defended with 2 inf
Caucaus is defended with 6 inf(from which 2 came from Russia) and with one fig
Moscow is defended with 6 inf

Russia has collected 29 IPC+the remaining 2 from the first round is 31

UK has enough space to build it´s navy, merge it with USA destroyer and 2 transports(which can bring some land units to UK in the first turns) and to constantly assault German lands-so USA can concetrate fully on Japan in the Pacific
and between Berlin and Moscow there is only one German tank-nothing more…

The short answer is no.

Killing that second FIG means the loss of 1 or both of Russia’s FIGs, and it means leaving West Russia intact, which means Germany starts with 1 INF, 1 ART more than they normally have on G1…
(Eastern has 2 INF, 1 ARM, 1 FIG;  WR has 3 INF, 1 ART, 1 ARM)

And those units are right where they need to be to threaten Moscow, instead of 2 turns and 2 combats away in Eastern.

That is a nice pick-up for Germany.

Given that open, I probably would not even bother with a Baltic AC… just sail out and engage the Brits, taking anything I could with my Baltic fleet, and send 8 ARM to West Russia, plus 4 FIGs and a BOM, then invade Moscow.  Back that up with an amphib on Caucuses combined with a land assault out of Ukraine and take Caucuses at the same time.

KRRF:  Kill Russia Realy Fast

yes but Russia can buy lots of units per turn
Germany´s position before it`s second move is that Germany has only a tenk between Moscow and Berlin

UK has two possibilities
1)UK can secure that Germans dont take anything beyond Anglo Egypt, but then an IC in India doesnt seem like a solution
2)UK can merge with the Australian transport and sub in South Compass Seazone and build an IC in Australia

In the second move UK can take East Indies with its expanded fleet and can also build some air or sea units in Australia
(The fighter from Bengal destroyed Japanese tranport and landed in Buryatia, later on it moved to the AC)
(the other fighter on the AC is Russian-from Caucaus, which moved to South Compass Seazpne in R2)

in these way, even with Germans Panzers harassing Africa UK can collect at least 30 IPC by taking East Indies and Borneo
USA should destroy Japan navy in Pear Harbour
and Japan faces enourmous threats on the sea
with lots of UK landings in India and French Indochina and with constant American pressure Japan will fall in sea and mainland
Russia only needs to hold, nothing more :-)

@ncscswitch:

The short answer is no.

Killing that second FIG means the loss of 1 or both of Russia’s FIGs, and it means leaving West Russia intact, which means Germany starts with 1 INF, 1 ART more than they normally have on G1…
(Eastern has 2 INF, 1 ARM, 1 FIG;  WR has 3 INF, 1 ART, 1 ARM)

And those units are right where they need to be to threaten Moscow, instead of 2 turns and 2 combats away in Eastern.

That is a nice pick-up for Germany.

Given that open, I probably would not even bother with a Baltic AC… just sail out and engage the Brits, taking anything I could with my Baltic fleet, and send 8 ARM to West Russia, plus 4 FIGs and a BOM, then invade Moscow.  Back that up with an amphib on Caucuses combined with a land assault out of Ukraine and take Caucuses at the same time.Â

KRRF:  Kill Russia Realy Fast

i am sorry, but it seems to me that you havent read my post, or ….

If Russia makes THAT open, I am not worried about Africa.

Germany’s income will be gained via Caucuses and Russia.  With the loss of the Russian FIG, most of their forces split apart and easilly picked off piecemeal, and with a rather significant German force adjacent to both moscow and Caucuses after R1, there WILL be an opening… most likely Caucuses.  You hit that from West Russia and with an amphib (bypassing an Egypt attack).  Add in the obligtory counters in Ukraine and Eastern, take Karelia with TRN’s units and Norway forces…

Russia is -6 IPC’s, has lost an IC, and Germany is probably going to be building adjacent to Moscow on G2 because Russia lacks the offensive punch to take it back.

And Amon… not that I did not read it, but you have 3 high risk battles there, and the odds are that at least one of them will fail most of the time.  Even if they succeed, you have your offensive forces spread paper thin, and you are backing it up with INF.  Germany can punch through on all fronts, and in enough force to prevent counters (Russia can probably do 1 counter, but the other two German break throughs will advance).

the odds for taking West Russia are 95%
you can check it by yourself or using the Proton Battle Sim

so forget German units in West Russia and the taking of Caucaus

I’ll let Tri do the breakdown of the net probabioity of the 3 combined battles.  He is rather good at those.  But with one of those already being “risky”, then the overall chance of all 3 succeeding becomes “poor”.

Taking Caucuses w/ West Russia was based on the original combat that started this thread (2 attacks, Ukraine and Eastern).

Your combat spread appears even thinner at first glance, even if all are successful.  All 3 attacks can be strongly countered, even West Russia usign AF (risking the AA fire) and the Belo INF.  And that would leave Russia with basically no offesnive forces (1 FIG).

Lastly, you are leaving the back door open by pulling the Evenk, Novo and Kazakh INF west.  That leaves you only 6 INF total to defend against Japan, and none to reinforce Sinkiang before it can be hit in J2.  Japan will ahve forces in 1 or more territories of the E/N/K perimter by J3, unless you are planning IC’s by either US or UK, further allowign Germany to focus on tearing through those paper thin Russian front lines in force.

That´s the problem about Russia.
It is able to do really much damage to Germany in R1-2, but if it really does it´s itself doomed in most games.

i am sorry switch but as i said before i dont need ofensive strength
i will buy inf only and defend the best i can
your Germany cant take my Moscow before 7th turn, maybe not even than
and Japan will have enormous losses fighting in the mainland,agaisnst US and UK navy

tell me what here is not possible

Well, to start, by losing offensive strength, you lose your ability to trade territories with Germany.  If Russia maintains some offensive force, they can get paid for Ukraine for a few rounds and hold West Russia for a long time.  They can also get into trading Belo and Karelia with Germany.  That preserves Russia’s income, and keeps them building 8+  units per round.

By losing your offensive punch after R1, you can;t trade anymore.  After you get paid for Eastern, West Russia, and Ukraine on R1, that is it.  From there, every territory Germany takes is permamently lost income.

Within a few turns, Germany has liberated everything Russia took initially, and they hold Karelia, Archangel and Caucuses.  That last one is pretty serious since it give Germany a 4 unit IC adjacent to Moscow, and that can flow troops to and through both Persia and Kazakh.

By blowing all of Russia’s offensive power on R1, you get one good round of income, then are quickly reduced to an income of 8, 10, or 12…. about 3-4 INF per turn.  And that is before SBR’s.

As for fleets against Japan… that takes a few rounds to set up… rounds that allow Japan to get a LOT of forces into asia first… enough to kill those 6 eastern Russia INF, and take Bury, SFE, Yakut, Evenk, Novo and Kazakh.  That is the final nail for Russia.  once pinned down to that low of an income, it is a war of attrition that can only be blocked by massive infusions of AF by the Allies… and that also means the end of Allied ships in the Pacific.  Allies cannot afford landings in Europe AND AF to defend Moscow AND ships to attack Japan.  They can do 1 well, 2 poorly, and all 3 not at all.

Again, my opinion, YMMV.

There are several problems:
Without a little bit offensive strength you can´t even take back Caucasus and Germany has an IC right under Stalin´s nose.
The Uk needs some time to establish a functioning transport rute to Moscow whitch can´t be destroyed by Germany.
I´ve already seen many games where the Allies split their forces too much between Jap+Ger and don´t really make neither KGF nor KJF sufficently and loose pretty fast.
The Ruskys are destroying a mayor part of their (and also a big part of the German army) but the Germans can rebuild this army much faster.
Your tactic relys on too much luck in the whole, one big lost battle in the beginning is enough to blow it to pieces, it´s true that in each battle you have a chance above 50% to win, but I´ve lost even battles where my chances were much higher.

But after all I wouldn´t say that it´s nonsense and I think that it works against some enemies(, if it works at all).

And I retake Norway with TRN forces, take Karelia in force, liberate Ukraine.

The problem with norway is that, unlike any other attack made by Russia, it leaves forces completely stranded, and allows for the teritory to the rear of them to fall in the same round that Norway is liberated.  In every other Russian attack, advancement means slowing the enemy.  Norway does not achieve that.

You are REALLY placing a lot of emphasis on killing those FIGs, to the detriment of Russia’s long term goals.

Hell, I am still not 100% convinced that killing the FIRST FIG in Ukraine is worth it when you can make such a sweet attack on Belo instead and have a very nice WRS, and a well defended Caucuses…  and not lose a single ART, ARM or FIG on R1.

What in the world are you doing that Germany can take Caucuses on G1, even if you don;t attack Ukraine???

Eeh gads no!

WRS is about 7 INF, 2 ART, 3 ARM (if you do Belo) or 7 INF, 1 ART, 1 ARM (if you do Ukraine).

Caucuses has 8 or so INF and 2 FIGs (or more, depending on build).

Go ahead, let Germany hit that…

I did some moving around. G can hit CAU with 4 INF, 1 ART, 2 ARM, 1 FTR and 1 BOM on round 1 if it passes on EGY. G still has lots left to get EE and UKR back (depending on the dice) assuming 2 INF from bid in Belo.

Now I didn’t run it with the 3 MOS INF reinforcing CAU only with (6 INF and 1 FTR) FTR going there instead of MOS and having 2 from KAZ and 4 from R1 build. It is only a 21% chance for Germany to lose all land units according to 1000 rolls on frood (if I’m reading it right.)So 6 INF, 1 FTR for Russia in CAU vs. 4 INF, 2 ARM, 1 ART, 1 FTR and 1 BOM. I did not figure in Shore Bombardment or AA but that isn’t bad chance at pretty much destroying the Russian war machine and collectinf 46 IPCs.

I didn’t figure the other battles but you could hit KAR with 6 INF and 1 ARM (vs 3 INF and 1 FTR), EE with 2 ARM, 3 INF  and UKR with 4 INF and 2 ARM. Now you would need to rethink that depending on the R1 dice. You also can still hit the UK BB while doing that.

The plan as orginally designed Jennifer is fraught with peril. I don’t see it getting much better. I have 11 INF and 1 ART in MOS in the above scenario. I suppose it would depend on how much Russia has left in EE and UKR.

You don’t need Africa if you are that close to MOS.