The odds are in your favor to do both these battles, and if they go right, you are correct that Italy will be substantially weakened. Â If you have the bid of 10, you can make them even more likely to succeed. Â Â Both are odds battles though, not sure things and most or all of your UK stuff will be dead even if you are sucessful, which means that the UK has to start from scratch in that region. Â Â Losing specifically the carrier and the protection/versatility of the planes from London is the biggest drawback; a lot of stronger players have many plans for those pieces later in the game.
The Tobruk pieces are a threat to UK, but they are also a liability for Italy; Â they are stuck in north Africa and so they either need rescue or reinforcement. Â Depending on how much navy Italy retains, they can be tempted to send good units after bad and try for Egypt. Â In most bid games (the ones where allies do T+T also), Egypt wont be easy for Italy to capture, it might be able to if it sends everything.
That’s a good sort of trap to lay for most players. Â Â If you neuter Italy with T+T turn 1, their best role changes to the can-opener/infantry build, even though its an involuntary assignment of this role, its a good role for Italy to have, and the optimal one if they get smacked turn 1. Â Â If you don’t do (both), they may be tempted to try for a North Africa game which can be a gigantic waste of resources if they don’t get the oil. Â Â
Italy’s bonuses and money don’t rely that much on Egypt itself. Â Â The 6 Allied North Africa territories are only worth $5 total (1x3, 1x0, 1x2), and taking the French ones has the consequence that the allies can take them back. Â Gibraltar is also worth $0. Â Â The Italian bonus money comes from the 1) clear med 2) holding the 3 of 4 but Egypt is the hardest 3) grabbing that oil but you’ll need a navy and 2 transports and a commit of most of your resources that remain after T+T.
I would recommend doing Taranto every time, the reduction in Italy power is well worth it. Â Â Doing tobruk alone is foolhardy in comparison, killing 6 trapped land units is not worth leaving a BB CA TT and the air force alone. Â Â Doing both has risks
- UK left with little or nothing after Italy’s turn
- UK loses key naval pieces
- Italy is no longer tempted to engage in a deadzone
- you are doing two odds battles on the first turn which can go south and affect the long game
- if you blow it and have to retreat then Italy can choose to kill the landed planes (if any), the remaining ships or kill the men trapped in Alexandria, or both (reversing the situation), leaving you with nothing and Italy with the control of the med until turn 5.
Good luck have fun!