Countering Operation Sea Lion

@Cmdr:

Back on topic, I still say that a fighter to England to prevent a Sea Lion costs you MORE then just ignoring it.  You put the fighter in England, you do NOT take out the German fighter and you’ve just allowed Germany another advantage.  Now I CAN see a tank push strategy working for Germany.

This is my TENET, one and only mojo. I agree with Jen

Sorry you could not see that.

The very second post of this thread was that it hurts the Russians to have to put a ftr or two in london against a REALISTIC OOB  G1 Sea Lion threat.

When did I ever say that I  " ……think that the Allies can’t do a damn thing against G1 Sea Lion, and that the Axis should automatically win.  Sure, you didn’t say that in so many words, but how else do you interpret your position as put forth in posts in this thread?"

You have not read my posts close enough then.

please QUOTE the thread where I said such, even insinuated what you say I say.  I do not see that anywhere.

What I DID say was you could still do G1 sea lion with a mere $5-$15 being spent on LRA tech tries and still play a good German game if these fail.  Now I would not roll for LRA if you put 2 ftrs in London, that would not be the wisest move.  You need to take advantage of the game position, and Russian ftr(s) in London is sub optimal.

1 Russian ftr in London is necessary in OOB.  However, this is still harmful to Russia.

@axis_roll:

@Cmdr:

Back on topic, I still say that a fighter to England to prevent a Sea Lion costs you MORE then just ignoring it.  You put the fighter in England, you do NOT take out the German fighter and you’ve just allowed Germany another advantage.  Now I CAN see a tank push strategy working for Germany.

This is my TENET, one and only mojo. I agree with Jen

Sorry you could not see that.

The very second post of this thread was that it hurts the Russians to have to put a ftr or two in london against a REALISTIC OOB  G1 Sea Lion threat.

When did I ever say that I  " ……think that the Allies can’t do a damn thing against G1 Sea Lion, and that the Axis should automatically win.  Sure, you didn’t say that in so many words, but how else do you interpret your position as put forth in posts in this thread?"

You have not read my posts close enough then.

please QUOTE the thread where I said such, even insinuated what you say I say.  I do not see that anywhere.

What I DID say was you could still do G1 sea lion with a mere $5-$15 being spent on LRA tech tries and still play a good German game if these fail.  Now I would not roll for LRA if you put 2 ftrs in London, that would not be the wisest move.  You need to take advantage of the game position, and Russian ftr(s) in London is sub optimal.

1 Russian ftr in London is necessary in OOB.  However, this is still harmful to Russia.

Your statements are a matter of record.  I will not shame myself by repeating your lies.  :lol:  Okay, maybe I’m enjoying this too much . . . but seriously, your position UNTIL NOW can hardly be interpreted otherwise.

Suffice it to say that your position is currently that the Russians should fly a fighter to London.  I think this is reasonable.

I will still poke fun at you, though, for saying that the Russian fighter to London is “necessary” but “suboptimal”.  :wink:

@the:

I will still poke fun at you, though, for saying that the Russian fighter to London is “necessary” but “suboptimal”.   :wink:

You’re more poking fun at the OOB rules, not me, because I am sure there are others who would agree with this sentiment.

You shouldn’t HAVE to make a move to keep the game from becoming Yahtzee!
It’s Revised damn it.

We already have Yahtzee A&A in classic (a.k.a second edition):
Can you say “Win the game with Heavy Bombers?”
:wink:

@axis_roll:

@mojo:

@ncscswitch:

1.  The SZ2 fleet is of no benefit to liberating London on UK1 if there is a German SUB in SZ1.  No way to load the ARM from ECan to even make the attempt.

True, and this is something I had forgotten.  However, you must still win the sub vs transport battle, which is just another battle that the Germans have to win.

not true.

The only thing you have to WIN in SZ1 is to avoid being hit by the tpt on round1 of the battle.  Then the sub dives and there is no way for UK to take back London (can not pick up units in a contested sea zone)

Thanks for pointing that out.

However, the USA can take a swipe at it with their AF, so it is still an imperfect solution.

Jen,

How do you think Germany is “out of INF” on G2?

You do a modified retreat of surviving units, stack out of range of the Russians, and on G3 you unload against them with about 20 divisions, most of it ARM.

With ANY Japan pressure at all… TOAST!

@ncscswitch:

Jen,

How do you think Germany is “out of INF” on G2?

You do a modified retreat of surviving units, stack out of range of the Russians, and on G3 you unload against them with about 20 divisions, most of it ARM.

With ANY Japan pressure at all… TOAST!

With a Sea Lion, the UK’s heavy landings are delayed by 1-3 turns, but an UnBaltic counterattack in sz7 also delays the UK by about the same amount. And in UnBaltic games, Germany can’t just send less than 10inf and whatever arm it can muster at Russia. That stack won’t make it.

It does look like Sea Lion sabotages the UK a bit more than other strategies, but it also means basically no German airforce. That’s a few or several 3s that Russia won’t have to defend against.

I still don’t see how a Sea Lion gives Germany that much of an edge.

The difference Hyog is that in an unBaltic strat, Germany does not have an extra $38 to spend on G2, and UK is not only delayed, but is incapable of building at all.

In this version, it is not “10 INF and whatever ARM it can muster”  It would be more like 10 INF and 20+ ARM.  Big difference between 20+ ARM compared to cobbling together the remnants of Germany’s starting ARM (6-8 ARM).

Okay, let me demonstrate, Switch.

Round 1:  Russia kills everything in W. Russia and Ukraine.  That’s a pretty safe assumption given the odds.

Round 1:  Germany has 22 Infantry left on the board, scattered around the board.  Effectively, Germany has 7 infantry in Combat range this round.

Round 1:  Germany spends 40 IPC for 8 Tech Dice Rolls to get LRA.  Let’s assume you succeed, since odds are in your favor at this point.

Round 1:  You attack England with Infantry, Armor, 5 Fighters, Bomber and win with Armor, Fighter Bomber.  You now only have 21 Infantry scattered all over the board.

Let us also assume both the English tranport and the German submarine survived in SZ 1. And, due to severe lack of resource, you did NOT take Egypt, but rather took Trans-Jordan losing 1 infantry and taking the land.  You also took Karelia, which was abandoned and attacked Ukraine with 3 infantry and an armor to kill the two armor that took it from Russia.

This leaves Germany with 133 IPC worth of equipment and a collection of 49 IPC on Round 1 (+30 from England) total 79 IPC.

On Round 1 England does NOT liberate England, just for argument’s sake, but rather reinforces Egypt, sinks the Japanese submarine and transport and consolidates the rest of their fleet in SZ 1 killing the submarine there. As well as sinking the German fleet in SZ 15 with a battleship and 2 fighters.

Japan does it’s thing as normal.  America pulls up to reinforce.

It is now Round 2.  Germany has a sum total of 8 infantry in combat position and 6 tanks.

Russia 2:

Russia spits out some tanks and a load of infantry.

They take out Karelia, Belorussia and Ukraine with ease and pull up their reserves to deal Germany the death blow.

Germany buys 15 tanks, 1 Artillery (since you are 1 IPC short of your declared build on Germany 2 of 16 tanks.  Your choice, not mine.)

Germany retakes Karelia, Belorussia, Ukraine.  But has to expose 2 armor and an artillery to do it.

What you do have in aircraft you use to kill the other Battleship.

I’m assuming you do NOT reinforce England, but rather desert it since you will want your armies in Mainland Europe.

England joins with the American fleet in SZ 12 and America lands a sizeable force in Algeria

Round 3:

Russia has enough forces to make a stand and keep Germany out.  Germany is earning 47 IPC a round, but it’s only a matter of time before they are wiped off the map.  After all, Germany only has 7 infnatry on the board at this point.  Sure, they have 20 tanks, but Russia’s got 30 infantry and tanks and more fighters. (I’m assuming the British Battleship sinks a fighter and the German bomber retreats.)  Very far from the 10 infantry + 20 armor you are talking about. (Since all those infantry and armor are not present to attack Russia.  Some of them are not even on the same continent.)

That, my dear, is how I say you have no infantry left.  You either have no infantry, or you leave Russia open to take Norway and keep their prizes in Europe tax free.  Both are BAD options for Germany.

And, to top it off, England’s got a nice beach head in Africa and some forces to liberate England when they feel ready too.  Meanwhile, you have to protect it or give it to England free.

Any way you slice this, it royally sucks for Germany after a few rounds.  Meanwhile, Japan’s got it’s hands full doing what it normally does to get ready.

First off, if 2 USSR FIGs went to London, I am probably NOT going to attempt Sea Lion, nor will I spend a lot of cash on Tech.

So, we need to first clarify where the USSR FIGs are.  If the do not go to London, then Sea Lion succeeds, if they do, then I am not doing Sea Lion and I have my Air Force available to counter-attack Russia’s advances.

So which way do you want to analyze this?  With the USSR FIGs in London or not?

If the USSR FIGs are NOT in London, then Sea Lion goes forward, most likely with at least the BOM left (71% overall for Sea Lion to succeed).

If the USSR FIGs go to London…  Then Germany SKIPS tech AND SeaLion.

You need to clarify where those FIGs are before we can discuss the odds on a probable sequence of events.

And of course, if the Russian fighters are in London, it gives your forces on the Eastern Front better odds in getting attacked.

That is, they won’t be as destructive against you.

That is the point.

Either Sea Lion goes forward and Russia advances only to be met by a MASSIVE German build, or the Russian FIGs are useless for 2 turns and Germany just advances on Moscow.

Pick one, both are happy things for me as Germany…

@ncscswitch:

The difference Hyog is that in an unBaltic strat, Germany does not have an extra $38 to spend on G2, and UK is not only delayed, but is incapable of building at all.

In this version, it is not “10 INF and whatever ARM it can muster”  It would be more like 10 INF and 20+ ARM.  Big difference between 20+ ARM compared to cobbling together the remnants of Germany’s starting ARM (6-8 ARM).

Sea Lion:
G1 - 40 IPCs spent on LRA, everything goes well
G2 - 76-80 IPCs to buy 15-16 arm

UnBaltic:
G1 - 15-24 IPCs spent on air/sea, 16-25 IPCs spent for 3-5arm
G2 - 40 IPCs spent for 8arm

Sea Lion: ~10inf ~22arm by G3
UnBaltic: ~10inf ~19arm by G3

This is even assuming a G1 air/sea build. Otherwise it’s like exactly the same amount of money to spend on arm. The only difference is that one build is G1/G2 and the other is just G2.

After a successful Sea Lion, UK won’t be landing for a while, but it’s not much worse than when the UK fleet gets wiped out by UnBaltic. And during those turns when 10inf 20+arm are dashing to Cau/Mos, Germany is going to be really hurting to trade territories. My point is, Sea Lion doesn’t field that much more arm. In fact, UnBaltic leaves Germany with a few more fighters and Sea Lion provides a few more arm. They both provide pretty much exactly the same amount of offensive power.

Lol. Switch, Ranor and myself has repeated yet again. So people, stop it with that 40 IPC on tech thing.
Be reasonable, Germany is not commited. See what Russia does first.
What wrong with 1 die?

@tekkyy:

Lol. Switch, Ranor and myself has repeated yet again. So people, stop it with that 40 IPC on tech thing.
Be reasonable, Germany is not commited. See what Russia does first.
What wrong with 1 die?

1-3 die is much more dangerous than an all-out Sea Lion, because if Germany gets LRA, it can build G1 transports that can be used to retake UK on G2. Cha-ching! That would get Germany the 30 more IPCs it needs to drop the 10inf that will kill Russia. Or it could just build 8-11inf then and there.

By the way if Russia took out the Ukr fig, the odds for sucsess are pretty slim. I made the battle on frood with with OOL proposed by Cmdr Jennifer and Germany has only 51.7% to take England with at least 1 tnk.

On the other hand there are still some points I disagree about. With enough bid Germany can take Egy even without support by air (6 ground troops should do the job - 2Lyb, 2 Bid and 2 from SEu)

And if London is not recaptured by the americans (as proposed above), then I can build 8 inf in London, so you mabe never retake it. Also I strongly disagree about the english beeing unimportant for the Allies - cause if London is not liberated the german does not have to take Afr so you can retake the territories with the US.

Since germany already has +8 from london I would be contend to leave every tan territory alone, if there is the threat of recapture by the US, because all british territories are lost for the Allies concerning the ipcs. This is a huge economical shift in favour of the Axis, cause now they earn more than US and Russia combined.

I still don’t understand why are you talking about bids. OOb rules have no bids. And if you want mod the oob to let bids, I would not be surprised of seeing 0 bids or even 3 bid for allies (inf at England) to counter Sea Lion without landing the USSR figther.

Oh, something to add. If using OOb + NA’s, radar is a very good choice for UK to prevent Sea Lion  :-D

Switch,

I stated a few times already that NO RUSSIAN FIGHTERS IN ENGLAND.  I invite Sea Lion because you WILL be destroyed doing it.

I even gave you a Fighter AND a Bomber surviving Sea Lion, that’s pretty generous, IMHO.  Especially since you yourself said Bomber only.

So on round 1 you have built NOTHING.  (101 IPC lead on Russia dwindles to 61 IPC) before ANY combat is factored in.

Russia takes Ukraine with 2 armor, 2 fighters and W. Russia with 7 Infantry, Artillery, 2 Armor (AA Gun).  That takes your 101 IPC lead from the start of the game and drops it to 50 IPC.  Russia is going to build next round with 29 IPC, Germany will have nothing built for this round, but potentially will have 79 IPC after their turn to build.

You take England, but you lose (your estimate) 5 fighters, 1 infantry in the process.  And you take Karelia and Ukraine (losing 2 infantry in Ukraine and exposing one armor to counter attack.)  I also made the intelligent choice of hitting Trans-Jordan since you do NOT have hte firepower to take out Egypt.  Let’s say you take that with loss of one infnatry and leave an artillery exposed to counter attack.

Germany collects 49 IPC + 30 from England’s bank for 79 IPC

Germany has 123 IPC in ground and air units.  Russia has 125 IPC in ground and air units.  And Russia’s primed for Round 2, Germany is cowering in Berlin with no ability to hold E. Europe, Norway, Belorussia, Ukraine, Balkans or W. Russia.

This, of course, does NOT include England’s round where they will easily liberate England and take Trans-Jordan and Libya as well, while simultaniously sinking the German med fleet with their fighters and battleship. (All this without having to give up the attacks on SZ 45 and 59 in the Pacific.)

Go ahead.  Go for your Sea Lion, Switch.  I’d love an easy win.

I will reitereate what others have said repeatedly…

You start from a false assumption of $40 spent on tech.

We’ll start there, the rest…
1.  You ignore Japan
2.  You are ignoring the loss of other Allied units as a result of UK not being able to build anything (like the remnants of the Royal Navy to 2 SUBs, 1 DST, 1 TRN and remaining AF.
3.  And you are overly optimistic in your Russian plans.  A single slightly bad dice roll, and your plan falls apart.  Not catastrophic dice, just a slight roll down is all that is need to wreck those plans.

Jen, if you are confident then can we analysis what switch, Ranor, and myself have sugguested….normal G1 build level minus one or very few tech dice.

And then if it we do come to a conclusion that Germany “WILL be destroyed doing it”, then the case rests.

And then we could even analysis the different Sealion newspaintbrush sugguested as being better.

(dryly) I hate to rain on everyone’s parade  :lol: ooo teh punz

but consider that the fewer dice you spend on tech, the more your chance of just wasting IPC.