Axis victory

Here, Round 1, 2 and 3

I kinda just did something with Russia and Italy etc.  I did the British escape attempt everyone seems fond of and I did your American bombers.  Nothing else, since nothing you can buy on round 2 will be in range to attack me on round 3.

Russia/Italy are realistic, but they could be altered slightly this way or that based on personal preferences.  I assumed 9 infantry, artillery, armor each round - it could be mech or fighters or anything really.

Germany1.AAM
Germany2.AAM
Germany3.AAM

UK can’t block bombardment?

@Cow:

nvm i am silly, but uk can block the bombardment from germany. which makes the odds a coin flip.

No, because you can clear anything on Round 2, you don’t attack until Round 3.

As you can see, there are 21 infantry, 5 fighters, 1 tactical bomber, 6 strategic bombers hitting England
I assumed 1 Tactical Bomber lost in the SBR, given that they scale with Armor or Fighters, it really does not matter which it was a TB or a SB, especially since there are good odds it won’t be any of them.
One British fighter could not make it, due to Germany being able to slaughter it if it landed in Gib or Mor.  I guess it would have had better defense (by 1) than the TB.  Most players are keeping one in Africa since it defends better.

21 Infantry, 5 Fighters, 1 Tactical Bomber, 6 Strategic Bombers 4 AA Guns
vs
13 Infantry, 4 Artillery, 9 Armor, 5 Fighters, 4 Tactical Bombers, 2 Strategic Bombers, Cruiser, Battleship (keep in mind the ships are not really NEEDED, and if you try to block them it will cost you 8 IPC and thus drop your infantry count to 18, that’s worse than just letting my ships bombard you since they do an average of 1 damage)

LL:

Round 1:
AA Guns:  1.83 hits (say 2 fighters)
Attacker: 13 Inf, 4 Art, 9 Arm, 3 Fig, 4 Tac, 2 Strat, CA, BB: 92 Punch ~ 15.3 hits
Defender: 21 Infantry, 5 Fighters, 1 Tactical Bomber, 6 Strategic Bombers, 4 AA Guns ~ 11.82 hits

Round 2:
Attacker: 1 Infantry, 4 Artillery, 9 Armor, 3 Fighters, 4 Tacticals, 2 Strategics ~ 11.66 hits
Defender: 16 Infantry, 5 Fighters, 1 Tactical ~ 9.16 hits

Round 3:
Attacker: 5 Armor, 3 Fighters, 4 Tacticals, 2 Strategics ~ 8 hits
Defender: 4 Infantry, 5 Fighters, Tactical ~ 5. 16 hits

Round 4:
Attacker: Armor, 3 Fighters, 3 Tacticals, 2 Strategics ~ 5.33 hits
Defender: 2 Fighters ~ 1.33 hits

So in LL, you go from 10% chance to survive, to 0% chance to survive and this is assuming you get insanely lucky with all your AA Gun shots (hit on the SBRs and 2 hits on the attack even though you have odds of only getting a total of 2 hits overall.)

@Cow:

UK can’t block bombardment?

No.  Why would they?
Destroyer: Cost 8
3 Infantry: Cost 9

You would shoot yourself in the foot if you purchased a unit to block the bombard because you’d lose 6 defensive punch and 3 defending units.  The CA/BB combined are only going to do, on average, 1 unit’s worth of damage.

England’s already really strapped for cash because they are dealing with a combination of Convoy Damage (6), Bomber Damage (12) for -18 IPC worth of units to put on the board on Round 2.  If they buy a destroyer as well they’re down 26 IPC out of 34 leaving them 8 IPC to buy units with to defend the British Soil

you should win if all uk has is 21 inf.

also why can’t uk block your bombardment with a ship from the med? (I never suggested uk should buy a destroyer, ever) boosted by the naval base?

@Cow:

you should win if all uk has is 21 inf.

also why can’t uk block your bombardment with a ship from the med? (I never suggested uk should buy a destroyer, ever) boosted by the naval base?

Because I take Gibraltar on round 2 and lock you into the Med.

uk can cock block you in 94 so you can’t take it. By doing the conservative play killing the one transport inbetween egy fleet and that fleet. using the 98 fleet

@Cow:

uk can cock block you in 94 so you can’t take it. By doing the conservative play killing the one transport inbetween egy fleet and that fleet. using the 98 fleet

With what are you blocking?  Keep in mind you need to be able to survive Italy and keep in mind that Italy can take Algeria allowing the Germans to land there.

I’ve seen all of this (except the American bombers) before.  I displayed the most successful method to minimize the amount of units Germany survives with and added the American bombers into the mix already.  I also gave you a free hit on an aircraft that, by all rights, won’t really be there most of the time.

you use sz 98 to kill the italy fleet between it and sz 94.  it is also how you get the tactical bomber on gibraltar without italy being able to bombard it.

Yes, you use a fighter/tactical bomber to clear SZ 96 and sail to SZ 92, I got that.  I even blessed you with superior dice results for the battle!  You sank the destroyer without losing anything!  33% od the time this costs you one of the planes.

I left the DD to block the Italians from hitting your fleet in SZ 92 and consolidated the remnants of ships I didnt slaughter hopelessly with them in SZ 92.  I have seen SZ 104 used to block, but the Italians can clear the sea zone.  If too much is left, the SZ 92 fleet and all aircraft can be lost and the Germans can just switch gears (instead of buying transports) and switch to submarines to keep England dead, or they can continue on, since you’ve removed most of the defenders.

isn’t that what the destroyer is for? then block with the carrier on 94.

so i can block you from hitting gibraltar. and those two air units on gibraltar can hit your navy (buy 1 carrier). so that is 6 air vs your navy. so you can’t just have a cruiser and battleship to defend it. unless you wanna shooka shooka 6 air vs 2 naval and 3 fighters.

like I said, lot of things can happen depending on G1, but in the event G1 is a blowout, an all hands on deck for UK is probable.
~correction 7 air if uk buys a fighter instead of 3 inf and saving 1 ipc. in which case you can’t take a 49% chance cruiser and battleship with 3 fighters is all ya need, because it would be 20% chance to defend. Carrier means -4 attackers instead of 2 transports (-3 transports depending on G1 income).

Not to mention it depends on how many subs survived G1 and what your strat bomb was like which determines UK’s inf count.
~
you could move back into the channel though. it depends on what is left on the board, but 9/10 times uk just buys all inf. sits tight. gibraltar is a good spot to be and having a blocker against a bombard is very good, but if the sub has to swing at the naval that’s another inf for UK.

usually you want the air on gib in case germany drops into scotland and goes for the sure shot the round after, you can sink him.

either way cmdr jennifer, round 3 germany can be very dicey if 5 bombers showed up to UK. Given the units you have laid out for me, uk@21 inf you got 90% range and that is without getting diced anywhere and doing 6 sub damage with solid strat bomb. uk @ 23 inf taking avgs gets ya to the 70% range (block bombardment or get an extra inf assuming your subs hammer the naval… an extra inf is about the equiv of two bombardments as two bombardments = 1 hit, but the inf can roll a 2 so the inf is a bit better).

Keep in mind germany starts with only 5 subs if I am not crazy, and you use 3 to kill uk transports. 1 for each of the other two naval battle. the odds you lose a fighter in either of the other naval battles… is not crazy. You could very likely show up with 1 less fighter bringing odds to a coin flip. plus there is no garauntee you walk out with 3 subs on G1 doing 6 damage. So you are giving UK a little lighter inf count.

maybe your luck is strong, but reality is UK round 3 is a coin flip, hence allied bids go at 6 ipc down to 3 or 2. It just isn’t going to happen every game if you let USA park 5 bombers on london. Plus it is worth it for USA to land 5 bombers on london, the # avg german attackers left drops to 5 with UK @23 inf taking the avg which means air losses for germany 30% chance defend. Getting a coin flip chance at holding london if UK has 24 inf, is even more awesome.

Why dont you take my Germany 1 map, alter it with your England moves and I’ll give you a new German map?

Also, there is no Airbase on Gibraltar. Â

oh yeah they took away the airbase on gib didn’t they. Gib is not even necessary then. still have to get those 2 air units over to UK securely.

Again, I’m giving you the absolute most likely out comes.

Between the two destroyers in SZs 106 and 109, you cannot possibily expect both to hit.  You can expect neither to hit as that will happen much more often than having both hit.  So it’s pretty safe to say there will be 3 submarines remaining out of the 4 that attacked there.

There are no destroyers left for England (in the Atlantic) so there are no attacks on submarines, you ARE taking Convoy, it’s only a matter of how much.  The argument was made that each submarine averages 2 damage, so 3 submarines ~ 6 damage.

Odds are very slim you hit a bomber on SBR (17% * 17% + 17%, about 20%) so it’s pretty safe to assume you won’t hit any of them - I gave you one anyway, but that’s not very likely an outcome.  Same for the AB, 20% so again, odds are slim you are hitting either tactical bomber as well.  Most likely, you’re actually 21 Infantry, 6 Fighters, 6 Strategic Bombers and 4 AA Guns against 13 Infantry, 4 Artillery, 9 Armor, 5 Fighters, 5 Tactical Bombers, 2 Strategic Bombers, Cruiser and Battleship, not the severely reduced numbers I gave you assuming England’s defense was well above par.  Even if you roll the AA Guns as both AA Guns and extra defending Bombers (so give them a defensive punch to boot) your odds are generally less than 10% you survive and I just cost you 5 American Strategic Bombers to boot.

Of course, if you introduce bids, things might change.  I don’t play with bids because Larry has failed to give us a game that is close enough to balanced to make bids worthwhile.   As it stands I think the allies need 15 IPC bid but have 24 IPC removed on round 6 to balance things out again (and what is removed and added as to go to England/America).  Basically, they get 5 infantry for England to drop the odds to a coin flip and then on round 6 they lose 3 destroyers so as to keep from being unbalanced again when America’s at full force.

@Cow:

oh yeah they took away the airbase on gib didn’t they. Gib is not even necessary then. still have to get those 2 air units over to UK securely.

Yes.  Your options are Gibraltar or Morocco

Germany has 3 Transports, 3 Infantry, 2 Artillery, Armor, 5 Fighters, 5 Tactical Bombers, 2 Strategic Bombers, Cruiser and Battleship that can hit either (assuming Italy took Algeria so there is a valid landing zone.)

yeah but that means you are moving out and the new transports you bought are guarded by 3 fighters only unless you buy another carrier or something.

morrocco is the sweetest deal because it has an inf on it already.

Either way 5 bombers on UK can make a battle you should win become a coin flip. Round 4 germany taking UK is always a garauntee, which is why I think UK should start out with an extra inf or two, but given the game is dice sometimes g1 is crazy and it loses pretty much nothing and sometimes g1 has more losses than usual.

It really depends, 5 bombers landing on UK makes G3 vs UK rough. I mean would you rather the sure thing or a gamble? Which is the whole point I been trying to drive. even if it is turns 90% to 70% that 20% increase in odds germany fails to take UK… is really crazy when it happens. If it turns it into a coin flip even better. Plus 5 bombers for USA who is out of position from the main theater of war is nothing especially if it leads to germany losing more armor and air than usual, because that is less the ruskies have to worry over. It has a more immediate effect on the europe game.

Cow,

Germany will still go for it with those odds and if it starts to look too dicey it can disengage it’s air force after the US bombers are taken as casualties (after which transports will simply swing back the next turn).  Worst case scenario, London falls one turn later and the US is still down 60 IPC worth of material.  I think Germany will recover against Russia before the US recovers against Japan.