Canada 51st state after London falls

A bit off topic but……about China.

Chinese GDP figures often don’t include Hong Kong.  The current 2011 GDP figures call for a Chinese GDP of 7.5 trillion

I was predicting China was going to fall apart when I spent my free time at work watching the Tienanmen square event unfold in real time 1989.  Hmmm all they managed to do was grow their economy on average 10% a year for 22  years after that event.  The power of compounding means they double their economy every 7 years at 10% growth.  That means an 8-fold increased in their GDP since that event.  At this rate they will double their 7.5 terrabuck economy to 15 by 2019 and to 30 trillion GDP by 2026.  This seems so far away, so did 2011 back in 1989 when CNN was reporting rumours of tactical nukes being used in China during Tienanmen.

According to this site, the US and Chinese GDP will reach parity in between 2017-2018.

http://nextbigfuture.com/2011/07/chinas-gdp-update.html

Now since the US has or will have about 1/4 to 1/3 the population it will have much more surplus income.  China’s labour rates are increasing, but the jobs won’t come back to the US so much as those labour cost sensitive jobs will flow to surrounding areas like Vietnam and Bangladesh.  China does have a huge problem with an aging population.  Their policy of 1 child per family and increasing life span means their demographics will look like a mushroom, lots of old people on top supported by a small column of workers.  Again, this will not really benefit the US but will shift the advantage to India.

By 2050 the US will be the #3 world power behind China and India.

My comment about the US sense of entitlement…  Entitled to be the #1 power and world influence.  The US has been a fairly good world player, many other countries in recent history would have been a much less benevolent world master.  But the days of being the only world master, the only shepherd  as it were is over.  I like the US, I know lots of Americans, some of my best friends are Americans, well I have some American friends anyways…Heck my brother and sister have lived longer in the US than Canada.  I grew up and live 15 miles from the US.  I know you guys and for the most part like you.  That’s why I am so worried about the effects your political system is having on you as a nation.  I also worry you won’t make the transition to the #3 power very well.  The XL pipeline is a case in point.  Canada is going to end up selling our oil to China as it’s going to be less hassle.

@MrMalachiCrunch:

My comment about the US sense of entitlement……  Entitled to be the #1 power and world influence.  The US has been a fairly good world player, many other countries in recent history would have been a much less benevolent world master.  But the days of being the only world master, the only shepherd  as it were is over.  I like the US, I know lots of Americans, some of my best friends are Americans, well I have some American friends anyways…Heck my brother and sister have lived longer in the US than Canada.  I grew up and live 15 miles from the US.  I know you guys and for the most part like you.  That’s why I am so worried about the effects your political system is having on you as a nation.  I also worry you won’t make the transition to the #3 power very well.  The XL pipeline is a case in point.  Canada is going to end up selling our oil to China as it’s going to be less hassle.

You make some good points.  And you are probably right, most Americans probably feel some sense of entitlement, but with that is also a sense of under-appreciation.  Canada has always been cool with the US I think, and England too, but there are a lot of countries around the world that don’t give the US it’s due.  The US played the major part in ending Nazism and Japanese Imperialism yet so many other countries seem to have forgotten that.  Heck, France was a German possession until the US, with the Brits and Canadians, liberated them yet these days it seems like the French feel we owe them.  The US has bailed out many 3rd world countries with billions of dollars, which I’m sure is resposible for a lot of our national debt, only to have many of them want us to leave once they get back on their feet.
It’s just frustrating that we spend so much to help people around the world yet they act like we are just going to bully everyone with our money or our military.

The US does have a 1/3 billion people, lots of natural resources and a culture of innovation.  Being connected to the Atlantic and Pacific and having peaceful stable neighbours are some natural advantages.  I can’t see the US falling below #3.  I can see China becoming #1 and shortly after this perhaps India taking over as #1 due to demographics while the US falling to an ever receding #3.    The only country that has a chance of supplanting the US as the #3 population is Indonesia but since it’s thousands of islands with a non-homogeneous population I doubt it could compete on productivity.  I just can’t see a scenario that sees them fall below #3.  Although, you could spin an extreme scenario of political deadlock that see them in a serious crisis.  A switch to a parliamentary system would fix that….wry grin