I just came away from my first axis victory. The crucial factor that led to the win was axis mobility, which allowed us to respond fluidly to Allied decisions and capitalize on their weaknesses.
I like building fleet as Germany on turn 1, because that fleet does several things. First of all, it forces England to pump out 9 infantry on the first turn. Then, you can use the fleet on turn 2 to either assist Barbarossa, enter the Mediterranean and help out Italy, or beef up with 9 transports to take England. If you take England, you can either continue pumping fleet if the Americans don’t seem too concerned about the Atlantic, or run away and throw 22 troops north of Moscow in a flanking maneuver. If the Americans are really stupid and don’t build much of anything in the Atlantic, you can bring your invasion force in range of Washington and take it the turn following, either as an alternative to or after Sealion. If Italy is having a tough time after Sealion, you might still want to consider throwing the troops into the Med if they can make it, crushing Britain and eventually threatening India and Russia’s southern flank. I also like laying down a smattering of minor IC’s as Germany so forces can materialize where they are needed, such as in Norway or Romania. This amounts to mobility as well.
Italy should build an Egypt IC if they can hold it, and if their transports can cross the Suez canal, they should. They can potentially shortcut to South Africa or even help Japan out against India or in re-taking the money islands for them. ICs are important for Japan as well, and transports are of course crucial. You want to plan several turns in advance so you can have a force to take or re-take crucial islands when the time comes. For all of the axis powers, air force is important. Bombers represent the most mobility of any unit, so buy them if you have the money to spare.
Back to the game I won, I admit that some of the “weaknesses” we capitalized on really should be categorized as mistakes. If we didn’t have mobility, however, we never could have taken advantage of those mistakes. Because Britain pulled their fighters out of England turn 1, I did a surprise Sealion on turn 2 and succeeded. On turn 6, I had a lot of tanks threatening Moscow and Russia left only 11 infantry to defend it with a “screen” of 1 infantry to stop the blitz. A squadron of Japanese bombers took him out and landed with the Germans, letting me take Moscow on turn 7. He retook his capital, but it set him back several turns. I dug in to Russia with a couple minor IC’s and kept pumping units for the 2nd battle of Moscow, eventually taking it for good.
Also of note this game, though certainly not game-changing: Italy took Sumatra back from the Australians. Italy also used their forces to make India stay honest and keep a garrison instead of sending everything out to retake China.
I do tend to think the game is weighted in favor of the Allies, but maybe not so much that the Axis should expect to lose every game. Hopefully they can get 1 out of 3 or 4 with skilled play. The key is keeping your options open and choosing the most effective strategy for the board as it stands.