UK1 @ SZ 95 scenario question

Germany still has one fighter and five subs to kill a lot of UK fleet. With your BB+CA from the Baltic you can take out the UK CA and French CA in SZ 112. Then you send out 2 subs to the DD+trn fleet and 3 subs + 1 ftr to the BB+CA fleet

That leaves UK with 1 BB, 2DD’s , 1CV and 1 tactical to counter your SZ112 fleet. Your Canadian fleet can’t reach SZ112.

He said that 2 subs go to 106 and 2 go to 109, that leaves 1 sub and 1 fig witch is not enough to take on 110 or 111. I would prolly not mind 109 and instead strike 110 with 3 subs and 1 fig and hope for the best if i was going to hit the RAF with the rest of my airforce.

Don’t make the mistake of letting yourself guide by Miamibeach on this one.  :-)

By making the attacks as I described against the UK fleet you have a good chance of pulling off SeaLion on G3. G2 is too early IMHO and performing poor attacks against the UK fleet might see your invasion fleet be sunk on UK2 (50% battle is good enough for the UK to leave the Italians and attack the Germans).

However when talking tactics I always reason from optimal play and average dice. And with those two in mind, UK has nothing better to do with her CV and tactical then attacking the Italians in the Med in SZ 95. That’s the topic of this thread if I am correct.

G3 is the way to go if you want decent odds of a Sea lion. G3 will be much mote expensive tho and the fact that you did it will cost you against the Russians. Im not sure the game is over if a G3 is succesfull.

G3 Sealion still does not have “good” odds in my opinion.  It’s about a 50/50 and you lose your whole invasion force of ground units and your airforce airforce.  On top of that you probably lose your own capital on R5!  I still don’t think Sealion on G2 or G3 is a viable option.

G3 Sea lion gives you better odds then 50/50 but it will cost you in the fight with the Russians. Im not sure that the Russian will take Berlin by R5 but it will be a hard fight where you will need luck and the Italians.

How many transports are assuming the Germans will have for their G3 Sealion?

I would say about 10 but it all depends on how the attacks in G1 went.

@Dany:

G3 Sea lion gives you better odds then 50/50 but it will cost you in the fight with the Russians. Im not sure that the Russian will take Berlin by R5 but it will be a hard fight where you will need luck and the Italians.

I was assuming that a G3 Sealion would use 9 transports to carry over 9 inf and 9 tanks, plus 4 ftr and 3 tac and 1 bmb.  The U.K. will have a defense of 19 to 22 inf, 2 to 3 tanks, 3 ftrs, and possibly a tac and AA.  That gives the U.K. approximately equal firepower to the Germans, which makes the G3 Sealion a huge 50/50 gamble especially when you figure in most of your attack force dies and you’ve bought nothing in G1 or G2 that helps against the Soviets.

Yea and in the mean time US (and maybe even Russia from what Emp -T said) is building its liberation fleet just in case you do get England that can land from the north or west sz.

@Dany:

If you attack the UK with your air, how much would survive. 1 is taken out by aa and maybe another 2-3 by the units in the UK. That leaves you with 4 air units. The UK can then block the north route around England with 1 DD, build 1 fig and 2 dd and put them with the rest of the fleet in 110. That would be 2 BB, 1 AC, 1 CA, 3 DD, 1 fig, 1 tac. Chanses that you get to invade are not that good. I do not think there is a way to get good odds on the UK in a G2 Sea lion, i think the G3 is the way to go if you want to do it. It has to cost more then 1 AC and 2 TRS to do a Sea lion or it would be to good.

When it comes to Egypt i would not land with troops in Transjordan as they are easy to kill for the UK. If the Italians mass all. If the fleet moves the Italians cant build any TRS in I1 asthe french can kill them and if the UK moved planes to Africa on UK1 the TRS cant move by itself. Holding Egypt is viable if there is a Sea lion on its way and Italy goes for it with all its force,  to hold it you need to be able to build a Minor there in UK1. If that is not a possbilty, you back up with your forces untill you meet up the units from Persia and the units from South Africa. With these and the planes you should be able to turn the tide.

If all the Axis are going for the UK the UK cant hold everything. I would give up India as it is impossible to hold anyways and the units there are very valuable in Africa/the Med. You will have a hard time but your allies will sort it out.

That is a good naval defence for UK, however the UK itself is still very weakly defended which means you have given Germany a real chance to do Sea Lion on G3 that otherwise would not exist…giving Germany a chance to build interesting stuff with its 40(at least)+17(france)=57 IPC’s.  More TRS, naval units.  The posibility could be that units from the current fleet:2SUBS, 2TRS(supported by air) go to SZ111, take out the UK DD and land 2INF/2ARM in Scotland…while building naval units of 1CV(2FTR’s), 2TRS, 1SUB with the 1BB, 1 CV(2FTR’s), 1CA already there.  G3, Germany can then take out the UK fleet, and land 4 more units and have more aircraft.  The main benefit of pausing Sea Lion is that it makes it harder for Germany to prepare for USSR.

However, you have made my main point which is that the UK CV/TAC/DD at Gibraltar must come north to deal with the Germans, and not sink the Italians in SZ95.

As for Transjordan, what would the UK attack with on its turn 2 coming from Egypt?  Whatever it is will weaken the defense of Egypt by more than what the 1INF and 1ARM would be if they were on offense.

Italians dont need to build a TRS on their first turn.  What planes can UK send to Egypt on turn 2?  There is already 1 in Egypt that I would keep there.  If UK builds an IC in Egypt, then what is it building to defend UK with from Sea Lion?  If UK builds an IC in Egypt, they are building it for Italy.  I’m not saying Italy has Egypt forever, and I think an orderly withdraw from Egypt might be the best thing to do if you know it cant be held.

Dont forget the 28+ air that Japan has…I have not read anyone taking those assets into account.

@Dany:

He said that 2 subs go to 106 and 2 go to 109, that leaves 1 sub and 1 fig witch is not enough to take on 110 or 111. I would prolly not mind 109 and instead strike 110 with 3 subs and 1 fig and hope for the best if i was going to hit the RAF with the rest of my airforce.

Thats a very good idea.  I tend to have target fixation on TRS when I’m the Axis.  3 SUBS(no surprise) plus the FTR from Norway(3,2,2,2) vs 1BB and 1DD(4,2) is a little more than 50/50.  Its worth it if you sink the BB and not lose the German FTR.

While all this Sealion discussion is fun to think about…IMHO I don’t think Sealion (G2 or G3) is a real option.

Most of these Sealion strategies go something like this:

1.  Germany buys carrier and 2 trns

2.  All Germany subs and planes attack U.K. navy

3.  Germany army fights without air support in France.

then on G2 buy more trns and navy and attack with all airforce and amphibious on G3.

The result of all this will be the following:
1.  Germany loses all its inf and mech and art in France on G1

2.  Germany loses all their subs in Atlantic on G1

3.  Germany spends most of its IPCs on navy and invasion force on G1 and G2

4.  Germany loses all their airforce on G3

maybe you take U.K. and maybe you don’t…it’s about a 50/50, but it doesn’t really matter because the Americans will take either U.K. or Normaday if not both on US5 and the Soviets have been buying stacks of inf, art, and mech while you bought transports.  You have absolutely nothing left defending Europe except your G3 and G4 purchases.  Game over on turn 5 or 6…and yes the U.K. still sinks the Italtin fleet in SZ 95, which stymies Italian efforts in the Mediterranean.  I think a lot of people are greatly over estimating the prowess of Italy and Germany.

I agree with panzerjager it wouldn’t make sense for Sealion to be that easy for Germany and still be competitive on all fronts.  Balance must be maintained or one of the fronts will surely collapse on the Germans.

Why dont we who disagree on this thread play a game?  There is already a game being set up on another thread.  We have the maps, know what the forces are, etc…  We can use an internet die roller that reports to each player what the rolls are.
The (pro-SZ95/Sea Lion is a bad idea) people play the Allies, those who think Sea Lion is a good idea play the Axis.
Any takers?  I’ll be glad to play Germany or Italy, or both if we dont have enough players.

Personally I think you’d be much better off simply securing the Atlantic with a surface fleet and trying to hold it as long as possible.  This would not be difficult, will deny the UK an NO, and you have a good chance at some good convoy raiding as well.  This is not to kill the UK, but to negate them as a threat.  This will also give Italy more time to get rolling in the south.

Kill all UK boats turn 1 that are around england, build an AC, DD, sub, then on turn 2 build what you must to maintain the advantage, with a few transports to keep the threat. With any luck with you stalling UK/US, Italy can get rolling and be a real thorn in Russia’s side to help you out.  A good amount of INF and plane purchasing can also be used to keep russia honest.

I mean honestly, how long would it take to knock UK down to an income of like 10?  Plus later in the game you can use that fleet in the baltic to help get troops north.  And you should have nearly double the US income pre-war, and be close to it once war is declared.

Im happy to play but if possible i would lite to w8 to after my exam next week, im already spending to much time on threse forums as it is  :-P

@miamibeach:

@Dany:

If you attack the UK with your air, how much would survive. 1 is taken out by aa and maybe another 2-3 by the units in the UK. That leaves you with 4 air units. The UK can then block the north route around England with 1 DD, build 1 fig and 2 dd and put them with the rest of the fleet in 110. That would be 2 BB, 1 AC, 1 CA, 3 DD, 1 fig, 1 tac. Chanses that you get to invade are not that good. I do not think there is a way to get good odds on the UK in a G2 Sea lion, i think the G3 is the way to go if you want to do it. It has to cost more then 1 AC and 2 TRS to do a Sea lion or it would be to good.

When it comes to Egypt i would not land with troops in Transjordan as they are easy to kill for the UK. If the Italians mass all. If the fleet moves the Italians cant build any TRS in I1 asthe french can kill them and if the UK moved planes to Africa on UK1 the TRS cant move by itself. Holding Egypt is viable if there is a Sea lion on its way and Italy goes for it with all its force,  to hold it you need to be able to build a Minor there in UK1. If that is not a possbilty, you back up with your forces untill you meet up the units from Persia and the units from South Africa. With these and the planes you should be able to turn the tide.

If all the Axis are going for the UK the UK cant hold everything. I would give up India as it is impossible to hold anyways and the units there are very valuable in Africa/the Med. You will have a hard time but your allies will sort it out.

That is a good naval defence for UK, however the UK itself is still very weakly defended which means you have given Germany a real chance to do Sea Lion on G3 that otherwise would not exist…giving Germany a chance to build interesting stuff with its 40(at least)+17(france)=57 IPC’s.  More TRS, naval units.  The posibility could be that units from the current fleet:2SUBS, 2TRS(supported by air) go to SZ111, take out the UK DD and land 2INF/2ARM in Scotland…while building naval units of 1CV(2FTR’s), 2TRS, 1SUB with the 1BB, 1 CV(2FTR’s), 1CA already there.  G3, Germany can then take out the UK fleet, and land 4 more units and have more aircraft.  The main benefit of pausing Sea Lion is that it makes it harder for Germany to prepare for USSR.

However, you have made my main point which is that the UK CV/TAC/DD at Gibraltar must come north to deal with the Germans, and not sink the Italians in SZ95.

As for Transjordan, what would the UK attack with on its turn 2 coming from Egypt?  Whatever it is will weaken the defense of Egypt by more than what the 1INF and 1ARM would be if they were on offense.

Italians dont need to build a TRS on their first turn.  What planes can UK send to Egypt on turn 2?  There is already 1 in Egypt that I would keep there.  If UK builds an IC in Egypt, then what is it building to defend UK with from Sea Lion?  If UK builds an IC in Egypt, they are building it for Italy.  I’m not saying Italy has Egypt forever, and I think an orderly withdraw from Egypt might be the best thing to do if you know it cant be held.

Dont forget the 28+ air that Japan has…I have not read anyone taking those assets into account.

In my original point i said that there are situations when you will want to bring your CV back to England, the air raid on England G1 might be one of those scenarios. I not trying to claim that striking the Italian fleet is a superior move in every situation. Iva also argued that the G3 Sea Lion is the way to go if you want to succeed, just as you are arguing now. As said tho, i think it will be expensive for the Germans and that they will get real problems with the Russians.

In the case of a landing in TJ, i would hit it in force from Egypt. In UK1 i also think an intresing move is to send one inf from West India into Perisa and then on UK2 take out Iraq. This scenario looses you Egypt but it conserves your troops while reinforcements arrive.

When it comes to Japan having a J1 attack makes Sea Lion harder as the Americans will get involved much sooner. The 28 air units will still need a few turns to get in position to strike India.

My G3 Sea Lion suggestion was only in response to your UK builds.  I still prefer G2 for Sea Lion.

Germany must go after the RAF on G1…so I guess that means you would not take the Gibraltar fleet into SZ95?..which was my point all along.  Its needed more to help save UK than attack the Italian fleet.

I’m not in a hurry to play this week…take your exams.  By the way…this morning the global rules are posted…so we have everything we need for a game.

Any other players interested in testing their strategy?  The minimum we need(my suggestion) are 5 players:
UK/France
US/ANZAC
USSR/China
Germany/Italy
Japan

If its me and Dany, we need at least 3 more.  I prefer someone who is still stubburn about attacking the Italians in SZ95 as the UK player.  I dont care what country(s) I play, but prefer to play an Axis country just because I’m trying to prove a point here.

I’d love to give the U.K. a try.  Count me in.