Axis and allies @ gametableonline

If Russia is aggressive in its first move, all things considered, it’s game over for the Axis. It’s why I favor a house rule that forces the USA to spend a certain amount of money in the Pacific Theater-and units purchased can only be used in that theater of operations…

I recently played two games of Spring '42 against my cousin.  On BOTH occasions, I captured UK on G2 and he conceded.  My cousin would be the first to admit that he is a lousy A&A player, but I still took a lot of joy out of silencing his trash talking, even if only for a moment.  It NEVER should have succeeded.  It was entirely due to poor decisions on his part.  Hobbes is absolutely correct.  The UK would have to make GRAVE miscalculations (purchasing and combat), and/or have absolutely horrendous luck with the dice.  Hobbes gave it in a nutshell.  Let me flesh it out a bit for G1 and G2.

Let’s give Germany the MAXIMUM possible force to bring in for a UK invasion on G1 or G2.

G1 assault on UK:  German 1 BOM, 2 FTR, 1 ARM, 1 INF versus UK 2 FTR, 1 ARM, 1 ART, 2 INF, 1 BOM, and the AA.  Germany has 4% chance to win with 1 ARM or better (in order to capture, the standard OOL is changed)

G2 assault on UK:  Let’s assume on R1, Russia went big into WR alone.  Germany has all 6 FTR’s intact.  On G1, Germany bought 1 CV, 3 TT, 1 ARM, and the SZ8 SS sank the SZ10 US fleet (50% chance).  On G2, Germany could bring as much as 1 BOM, 6 FTR, 5 ARM, 5 INF, 1 BB bombardment shot (though the BB would be better used in SZ 9 to interdict/divert the new US1-built fleet hoping to liberate UK on US2.  Let’s keep the BB bombarding UK, however, just to give the best possible odds for the Germans in the invasion of UK. With the sz10 fleet eliminated, the G1 naval purchases are placed in the Baltic rather than the Med.  The UK player has to see the threat of a G2 invasion bearing down on them.  The UK player, not being COMPLETELY inept, decides to shore up UK.  UK purchases 5 INF 3 ARM, the SZ1 TT brought the ECan ARM over to UK.  The BB stays put in SZ2 as Germany’s 3 SS, 1 DD, 1 CV have a 98.5% chance of wiping out the BB without needing to divert any air units from the invasion.  Germany has 1 BOM, 6 FTR, 5 ARM, 5 INF, and the BB bombardment bearing down on UK, who stands with 7 INF, 1 ART, 5 ARM, 3 FTR, 2 BOM (1 FTR 1 BOM from EUS), 1 AA.  Germany’s odds of capturing UK under this optimal condition would still be only 24.5%, and the US would be able to liberate on US2.  If Germany parks the BB in sz9 to interdict/divert the US, a liberation by the US would be impossible, but the German odds of success at UK drop to 19% without having the bombardment.

Clearly, a G1 attempt is suicide.  Assuming the G1 attack succeeded against the SZ10 fleet (50% chance of success) followed by a best case scenario G2 attempt after a G1 build of 1 CV, 3 TT, 1 ARM (19% chance of success while preventing liberation by US).  By compounding the probabilities, your chance of a G2 assault of this sort succeeding is less than 10%.  If Germany is missing a single FTR from their original 6, the odds are cut in half again.

IF you are playing against a lousy UK player, you might have better luck forgoing the naval build on G1 altogether.  Germany can opt to smash the sz2 fleet, and hope the UK will turn around and buy 1 CV, 2 DD (or a similar navy heavy buy) and ignore the Baltic fleet on UK1 (2 big IF’s), allowing Germany to invade UK with 1 BB shot, 2 loaded transports, 6 FTR, and 1 BOM on G2.  83% chance of success without US units on UK.  Long story short, unless you are playing inept opponent(s), a G1 or G2 invasion of UK is a suicide mission.

I have tried KJF with some succes. How I play it is that I never decide to go KJF until J1 has passed. That means I will usually not devote any Russian or British forces to fight Japan in the first round. Instead I will focus on the European theater and Africa first, building a UK navy and trying to sink the Med Fleet ASAP. The reasoning is that even with a KJF, you can’t let Germany just run rampant. KJF often means a long game, so keeping the African IPCs out of German hands is very important. With UK that will always be my number one priority, so it’s safe to say that I will never build an Indian IC on UK1. Of course, the Japanese transport will still be sunk in 99% of the games.

For me, the most important KJF triggers happen on J1 and can be summarized as Japan failing to take a critical objective (China, Pearl) or losing a lot of air and naval forces across multiple battles. If Japan does ‘big Pearl’ and takes heavy losses, exposing a battleship and carrier to a promising US counterattack, I will often go KJF. Same goes for ‘small Pearl’ and losing that battle. For losing China it’s a bit less clear-cut, since Allies often don’t have the units in that area to press on an advantage. In other occasions Japan could lose a BB in SZ59, or fighters in any battle, giving enough incentive for US to build a Pacific fleet.

After round 1, even if US went Pacific, I will mostly use UK to fight Germany and assist in the defense of Russia.

The sad thing about this form of KJF is that it is contingent on bad dice for Axis, and not used as a general strategy. The question is whether in those scenarios where Japan has bad dice, KJF might be viable but KGF could still be strictly better.

@LMD:

Every game has gone to the Axis (about 14 games now), and every one has been a KGF strategy.

Do not play KGF.

We routinely go with the Norwegian Gambit (preserving the UK battleship) and have never failed.  Yes, we lose the R fighter on Germany R1, but one Russian fighter does not make the difference.

Do not play the Gambit. Maybe the Russian fighter combined with the lack of the BB as a target is more important than you account for.

This advice isn’t global, of course KGF and Norwegian Gambit are viable strategic and tactical options.

But if it doesn’t work for you, try something else.

R1 Attack on WRus and UKR. Move 6 INF into Bur, 2 INF to Yakut.

US1 build an AC, DD for Western US, placing Hawaii ftr and WUS ftr on the AC. Move Bomber to Alaska. This way you threaten SZ 60 with the fighters, SZ 61 with the bomber. If J2 doesn’t go for Bur, you can reinforce Bur with 2 fighters on US2 and maybe sink undefended transports in SZ61, landing in Bur.
Then go for the Solomons. Try to build to 2-3 transports (moving ground troups to the Solomons. ) and a few planes every now and then for the Pacific (over time, not necessarily in one round). Have a surprise tranny take an island or 2. Threaten Borneo, Phillipines and East Indies all in one go from the Solomons.
Use the US sub and the UK sub roam the islands, threatening transports and ACs.

The main goal is to threaten Japan and lure Japan into spending scarce money on expensive navy. If Japan ignores your moves, be more aggressive. Phillipines is a victory point, so are Shanghai and India.

I am not saying that this is a very great strategy. But it forces many decisions onto the Japanese player.

And if you have problems in the Atlantic, try building the AC, 2xDD on UK1 in SZ2, then be aware you might land the US ftr on the carrier on turn 1.

Normaly 2 arm is not a problem, ofc depends i mean if he go all out tanks r1 Im still ok, round 2 if he went all out tanks again i just move tanks back from Yak, and then the allies will win.

@SilverAngelSurfer:

The entire basis of the changes to North America in 1942 is to “fix” the ease of conquering North America in previous versions, which in terms of historical accuracy should be nearly impossible for Japan to do.  The above suggestions are the best way to go for Japan in the current game, however.

Fuck that. Japan should break out of the Soviet Union into Alaska and base them self there fight with might for West Canada then take West US

Sorry friend, I am here only occationally (vacations etc) and I am really not a frequent player. I do not have time to play-test in any other way then in TripleA. You can find me there from time to time as Granada but I cannot host now.

Regarding the Russian sub, you are correct. I have not inculded it because it survives only if you decide to submerge it during the R1 attack of German sub, fig and bomb on SZ2 before the fight. But it further diminishes the likelihood of the success in this particular battle. You cannot take the potential hit by the sub on it, which is good because it gives your battleship good chance to get at least one plane. If you keep the Russian sub in the fight the likelihood it would survive is about 60 %.

If you include the sub to the R2 battle calculations in the SZ8, you are correct that it changes the odds for the defender in case of 2subs plus four planes on the German side. In case attacker has built a bomber R1 and still has three figs to hit you, the odds for him to win remain 66% with 1,7 units left.

The fact is that the Germans must build a bomber R1 if they want keep the likelihood of Allies merging in SZ 8 with stronger fleet under 50%. R2 you really can prevent them to merge there and R3 you cannot perhaps prevent them to land some troops somewhere. You are perhaps right in that respect.

Still the question whether the Germans will not get their planes to the point when they will sink some of your fleets especially if you decide to split it will be omnipresent and the dynamics of the sea battles in the Atlantic have definitely changed in their favour.