• 2007 AAR League

    wait a second…
    I can’t remember what the formula is, but it’s something like this:
    need:
    1/6 probabilty for 1.
    2/6 probability for 1 or 2.
    to get probability of both I think you multiply them together:
    1/6*2/6 = 2/36 or 1/18 chance.

    I think that’s what he used.

  • '18 '17 '16 '11 Moderator

    Yup, about a 6% chance or 1 in 18.

    Honestly, Superfortresses should be normal bombers that do 2D6 damage instead of 1D6.  Note, Heavy Bombers do 1D6+1 SBR damage or 2D6 take the best roll normal damage.

    If you combined Superfortresses and Heavy Bombers (B-52s???) it would be 2D6+2 SBR damage or 4D6 take the best 2 rolls normal damage.

    But your AA Guns would still have a 1 in 6 chance of shooting down the enemy bomber!


  • It’s 1 in 12.

    There are 36 possible outcomes when rolling 2 dice.

    1&1, 1&2, 1&3, 1&4, 1&5, 1&6
    2&1, 2&2, 2&3, 2&4, 2&5, 2&6
    3&1, 3&2, 3&3, 3&4, 3&5, 3&6
    4&1, 4&2, 4&3, 4&4, 4&5, 4&6
    5&1, 5&2, 5&3, 5&4, 5&5, 5&6
    6&1, 6&2, 6&3, 6&4, 6&5, 6&6

    Only three of those outcomes result in a shot-down Superfortress under LHTR.  1&1, 1&2, or 2&1.

    3 in 36 = 1 in 12, or roughly 8.3%

    ~Josh


  • 3 in 36 = 1 in 12, or roughly 8.3%

    Yeah, I see that now.  And I thought I still liked those odds, but after reading Caspain Sub policy papers I decided to try and avoid sbr unless it’s the endgame and my bomber has nothing better to do.

    Honestly, I wrote my “review” of the NAs before I ever looked at Caspian Sub, but I was pleased to see that I evaluated most of them about the same way as the policy paper.  But the way the policy paper quantifies the Allied advantage from NAs, it pretty much convinced me to avoid using them at least until I learn more about the basic strategies of the game.


  • My group plays with LHTR rules…our current game has the following NA setup.

    Russia
    Lend-Lease
    Trans-Siberian railway

    UK
    Radar
    French Resistance (USED)

    US
    Mechanized Infantry
    Fast Carriers


    Germany (Me)
    Fortress Europe
    Atlantic Wall
    Wolfpacks

    Japan
    Banzai Infantry
    Dug In Defenders
    Most Powerful Battleships


    Analysis…

    Allies went KGF, and despite the defensive advantages, a constant flow of US/UK fighters to Russia for Lend-lease conversion, coupled with the lack of an offensive NA for Germany, spelt the end of German expansion after US/UK got their transport chains running. Even with the amphib bonus of Atlantic Wall, the Allies have had little trouble landing at will anywhere but Berlin.

    Germany now only owns Berlin and it’s African territories (liberated by Japan, which owns the rest of Africa)

    Railway, Radar and Carriers haven’t even come into play…but the Allies didn’t even need 'em. All they needed was Lend-Lease and Mechanized Infantry…the rest was just extra.

    Japan has not made much use of anything but his battleships, which have done some bombarding. His NAs really haven’t aided him in his drive for Moscow.

    It’s pretty much a stalemate at this point. Berlin and Moscow have both been taken and retaken, and it’s a big fat stalemate with me unable to do anything but wait for Japan to save me.  :-P

    Oh… and don’t knock Kamikaze/Kaitens. They can be used either while attacking or defending, and while they are automatically lost, YOU choose the casualties. It can be great for selectively targeting loaded enemy transports, carriers far from land, or sinking pesky battleships. I have seen these NA’s used to GREAT effect, so don’t underestimate them!

  • '18 '17 '16 '11 Moderator

    Well, if your Lend-Lease is LHTR, you can only convert 1 ground unit from each nation to Russian.  A strong effect on the NA.

    Honestly, shouldn’t ENGLAND be the recipient of Lend-Lease???  And then, only from America’s equipment (not personnel, aka no infnatry donations, but fighters, bombers, boats and tanks are okay.)


  • @Jennifer:

    Well, if your Lend-Lease is LHTR, you can only convert 1 ground unit from each nation to Russian. A strong effect on the NA.

    Honestly, shouldn’t ENGLAND be the recipient of Lend-Lease??? And then, only from America’s equipment (not personnel, aka no infnatry donations, but fighters, bombers, boats and tanks are okay.)

    Good point.  If the NA weren’t already heavily favoring the Allies, I would trade something like Radar for the option of getting Lend-Lease for UK.

    If US has the option of Mechanized Infantry, should Germany have that option as well?

  • '18 '17 '16 '11 Moderator

    Germany should get Combined Arms:

    When attacking a territory with Infantry, Armor and Fighters each attacking unit attacks at +1 per SET. (1 inf, 1 arm, 1 fgt = 1 set.)

    That would mean the Inf would hit at 2 or less; the arm at 4 or less and the fgt at 4 or less. - do away with Panzerblitz

    Russia should get “Partisans” +1 Infantry a round on any red territory. Do away with Lend-Lease.

    England should get Lend-Lease, any two american units (other then infantry and industrial complexes) can be converted during the purchase units phase to British units of similar type.  This would replace Radar.

    I think the boost to Germany’s attack ratio (at start of game that would be +18 punch (6 inf, 6 arm, 6 fig) and be more in line with historical accuratness. (blitzkrieg.), more then makes up for the changes to the allies.


  • @Jennifer:

    Germany should get Combined Arms:

    When attacking a territory with Infantry, Armor and Fighters each attacking unit attacks at +1 per SET. (1 inf, 1 arm, 1 fgt = 1 set.)

    That would mean the Inf would hit at 2 or less; the arm at 4 or less and the fgt at 4 or less. - do away with Panzerblitz

    Russia should get “Partisans” +1 Infantry a round on any red territory. Do away with Lend-Lease.

    England should get Lend-Lease, any two american units (other then infantry and industrial complexes) can be converted during the purchase units phase to British units of similar type.  This would replace Radar.

    I think the boost to Germany’s attack ratio (at start of game that would be +18 punch (6 inf, 6 arm, 6 fig) and be more in line with historical accuratness. (blitzkrieg.), more then makes up for the changes to the allies.

    Russia, Caucasus, Karelia, Archangel, Evenki, Novosibirsk, Kazakh, Yakut, Soviet Far East, Burytia.  So Russia gets 10 more infantry right away.  After the German turn, probably just Russia, Caucasus, Archangel, Evenki, Novosibirsk, Kazakh, Yakut, Soviet Far East, or 8 more infantry.

    Germany’s “sets” are gonna be rocked pretty quickly as German infantry go down.

    Also, Germany won’t really be able to trade territories with Russia very well.  Now Russia gets a bonus infantry for every territory it takes.  Plus Germany’s “sets” don’t help trading.

    If I can be Allies, I’ll take those changes.

  • '18 '17 '16 '11 Moderator

    No, Russia gets 1 infantry they can place on any terrirtory they want as long as it started as a red territory and they get it every round.  Hence the reason I said they get

    Russia should get “Partisans” +1 Infantry a round on ANY red territory.

    If I meant on EVERY red territory, I would have said on EVERY red territory, dear. :P

    So Russia gets 1 infantry a round.  Germany gets a massive boost to their offensive punch.  Especially if you have Dive Bombers.  Now your fighters on the first round of combat with mixed units attack at a 6 or less.  In case you missed it, first round fighters CANNOT miss.

    However, 1 infnatry a round means that as long as Moscow is standing, Russia gets at least 3 infantry a turn.

  • 2007 AAR League

    @Jennifer:

    No, Russia gets 1 infantry they can place on any terrirtory they want as long as it started as a red territory and they get it every round.  Hence the reason I said they get

    Russia should get “Partisans” +1 Infantry a round on ANY red territory.

    If I meant on EVERY red territory, I would have said on EVERY red territory, dear. :P

    So Russia gets 1 infantry a round.  Germany gets a massive boost to their offensive punch.  Especially if you have Dive Bombers.  Now your fighters on the first round of combat with mixed units attack at a 6 or less.  In case you missed it, first round fighters CANNOT miss.

    However, 1 infnatry a round means that as long as Moscow is standing, Russia gets at least 3 infantry a turn.

    Play it more like real partisans.

    Russia gets one infantry in every enemy controlled red territory.  They can’t move the turn they are placed, they just attack.  If the enemy controlled red territory was vacant, they take control of it at the end of the combat phase.

    Now the Axis has to garrison all Red spaces and if the dice work against him, it could lose a unit and/or a territory to partisans.


  • @Jennifer:

    If I meant on EVERY red territory, I would have said on EVERY red territory, dear. :P

    Since when does a woman mean what she says?

    burrrrrnnn

  • '18 '17 '16 '11 Moderator

    @newpaintbrush:

    @Jennifer:

    If I meant on EVERY red territory, I would have said on EVERY red territory, dear. :P

    Since when does a woman mean what she says?

    burrrrrnnn

    Since we started having to explain to men what THEY (the men we are talking too) think.


  • @Jennifer:

    @newpaintbrush:

    @Jennifer:

    If I meant on EVERY red territory, I would have said on EVERY red territory, dear. :P

    Since when does a woman mean what she says?

    burrrrrnnn

    Since we started having to explain to men what THEY (the men we are talking too) think.

    burrrrrrnnnn

    lolz.

  • '18 '17 '16 '11 Moderator

    :-D


  • For every country’s NA, are some of them one time use things and some of them you can use them anytime it’s your move?  Some of them just aren’t very clear.  For example, can Russia move her IC’s every round if she wants?  Or is that just one shot and it’s over?  Which NAs are useable every round and which are one time deals?  Thanks


  • The rules are fairly clear about which are one-timers.  But for the record, the one-timers are:

    Russia’s Russian Winter (declarable during Russia’s Mobilize Units phase)
    UK’s Joint Strike (Declarable at start of Russia’s turn)
    UK’s Enigma Decoded (declarable between Germany’s Combat Movement and Combat phases)
    UK’s French Resistance (declarable during UK’s Mobilize Units phase if Allies control Western Europe)
    UK’s Colonial Garrison (happens before the game starts)

    …and that’s it.  Everything else can happen multiple times.  These are all the LHTR 1.3 versions of things, btw.  I think the OOB versions are identical except for Joint Strike, which is declarable at the start of UK’s turn.)

    ~Josh


  • Definitely sucks to be the Brits with their NAs. :|


  • Actually I like the UK’s NAs… your timing with their usage allows you some suckerpunch moves.  It is a great lot of fun to declare Enigma Decoded right when Germany has mounted a healthy attack on Moscow, then sidestep a stack of Brit units from Archangel into the fray.  Or to set up plane-bait with US transports in the Atlantic and then swing a loaded Brit Carrier and Battleship down when German air attacks in force.  Fun whee!  Thast move alone can break the game.

    Building your US/UK game around a healthy Joint Strike is fun too, and you feel oh-so-sneaky while setting it up.  If you’re smart, you’ll prepare several across-the-board actions to unleash all at once and leave your foes in ruins.

    ~Josh

  • 2007 AAR League

    Just so you know, French Resistance can actually be placed during US/USSR if US/USSR takes Western Europe.

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