Countering Operation Sea Lion

[Guest]

To clarify my previous position…

With OOB tech rules, and $25 spent on tech, Sea Lion IS a viable option.  If you add a bid of $8 to Germany as a TRN in SZ5, it is VERY doable.

If Russia sends FIGs to London on USSR 1, then Germany skips the tech rolls and goes balls-to-the-wall on Moscow; as does Japan, even if it means skipping Pearl.

[Jennifer]

If you are playing with box rules then there would be no bid.  And even with 5 dice you’re still hampering yourself a lot since, as I showed, you only have a 75% chance to win in England.  That’s a significant chance to lose everything without taking England.

[Guest]

If with 5 dice LRA does not happen, you just abort, go INF heavy, and play a normal KRF game.

VERY little lost in the attempt for Germany since UK still has to defeat the Baltic Fleet to land freely in Karelia/Eastern.  And Germany ofcourse retains their 5 FIGs, 1 BOM if you abort Sea Lion…

[Jennifer]

Correct.  However, there is still a LARGE cost to Germany.  You just SBRed yourself for 25 IPC on Round 1.  So you build 5 infantry and, let’s say, you liberate Ukraine, take Egypt and take Karelia.

You have 42 IPC like normal.  Except, you don’t have the support you would have had if you had not gone for LRA.  That means England liberates Karelia for Russia to preserve Russian power, America lands in England to stop future Sea Lion attempts until they can sink the SZ 5 fleet with minimal costs and England probably liberates Egypt. (You can only hit it with 2 infantry, 2 armor, fighter, bomber, so odds are you don’t have a lot of defense there at the moment.)

The only difference in this from a normal game, if you go 25 IPC for tech and fail, is that you are down 25 IPC in units.  Roughly 5 infantry, 2 armor’s worth.  That’s pretty significant if you realize that Russia only had 24 IPC itself for round one purchases and you spend MORE then that on tech dice.

Basically, what I’m trying to say is that win or lose, Germany is NOW playing a defensive game and hoping Japan can take out Russia before America (and later England) can take out Germany.

I don’t know if I want to try it.  You only have a 67% chance to get the tech (best I can figure it) and a 75% chance to get London.  That’s like a 50/50 shot (0.67*0.75).  You want to risk that, knowing that if you do succeed in London you are without an airforce.  Sure, you have tanks (you said you’d build tanks, you didn’t say planes.) but tanks you will lose as you trade land with a nation who has planes not tanks to use.

[Guest]

You are ignoring the fact that if Germany DOES hit the tech, then 3 out of 4 games UK is lost, and Germany gains $38 IPC and UK loses the ability to build on UK 1.

75% is a chance I will take every time it is given for a Capital battle…

[Jennifer]

But you are ignoring the fact that you don’t have anything to follow up on Germany 2 when you do that.  You’ve pretty much blown your wind and are now 100% on the defense.

You’ve lost Africa.  Russia’s probably taking at least Balkans on top of Ukraine, Belorussia and liberating Karelia, however, they may be taking Norway too if they can.

England’s sinking your fleet in SZ 6 and Russia’s going to send the submarine to finish it off if they have too.  That should stop a second Sea Lion if it is a threat. (If it is not a threat, then no need to attack the fleet.)

England can easily liberate Egypt and England without losing the ability to sink the SZ 59 transport and impact the SZ 45 battle (which never results in anything as far as I’m concerned.)

America is unimpacted.  They normally unload in England anyway, so you’re not really slowing them at all.  All you’re doing is allowing Russia to get stronger in comparison to Germany and do so faster.  You’ve SIGNIFICANTLY shifted the balance of power.  Instead of 105 IPC advantage you are down to 40ish maybe, depends on how well Russia does in R1 and R2.

Yes, you can build tanks and push back.  However, as I mentioned, Russia’s going to be able to bleed those tanks off until you replace your fighters (of which you have NONE) without risking their own armor.  That means they’ll not only shrink your stack but also build up their own.  If you buy fighters to replace loses, you have negated the lion’s share of the benefit of taking out England.  (Because it will cost you 50 IPC to replace the 5 fighters, you’ve taken 38 IPC that’s a 12 IPC net loss.) You still keep England out for an extra round, but again, England’s not exactly a mover and shacker on the board in the first 3 rounds anyway.  Waiting one more round to recover from a capitol sack is not that bad considering Russia’s earning 35 IPC on Russia 2 and Germany’s earning maybe 38 on Round 2. (Not to mention, the Germans have lost the med fleet if they did not even attempt to kill the British in Egypt.  You’d only get to hit it with 4 ground units anyway, and there are 3 defenders, one very powerful to over come, so it’s no forgone conclusion you’d even get it.)

Sorry, I just don’t see this working out for Germany in any scenario EXCEPT where you get the technology with the roll of 1 or 2 dice.  Sure, you have a 1 in 3 shot if you roll two dice, plus or minus (think it’s actuall 30%) which would give you a significant advantage.  (Since now you can still build 10 infantry on G1, and just short yourself the tanks instead of a LARGE portion of your builds to all your builds.)

But to be realistic, you’d need 6 dice to succeed.  And that leaves 10 IPC for units.  (1 in 6 chance, so if you take 6 shots then you have 1 in 6 + 1 in 6 …. which is LL for 6 in 6 or a success almost all the time.)

[tekkyy]

@DarthMaximus:

I picked 5 dice rolls, b/c with anything less I wouldn’t be scared if Ger tried to tech since with 4 rolls it is about 50% and drops as you go to 2 or 3 dice.

Actually I would be scared if Germany buys with few dice. Though you are playtesting that now so you’ll give insights soon.

The way things are going, how about a playtest between Jen and switch?

Jen puts it at 1-2 dice. axis_roll is thinking 3 but will test 5 anyway in his game with DM.
Where do you put it at, switch?

[Guest]

I go 5 dice with no Russian FIGs in London.

[newpaintbrush]

The people that are testing these scenarios with 1-3 tech dice should also play some test scenarios when they play the Germans down 5, 10, or 15 IPC, to represent the 5/6, 25/36, and 125/216 chances of failure.

Even the 4 tech dice for 625/1296 chance of failure is considerable - heck, even the 8 dice version has a nasty chance of failure.  But 1-3 tech dice means you really shoot yourself in the ass a fair amount of the time.

[Magister]

Do you refer ONLY to the Turn 1 Sealion based on ‘surprise’ long-range-air ? That is forbidden competitively as far as I know, either explicitly (Turn 1 special rule) or the delayed tech in LHTR.

Or do you refer to the Turn 2 try (after building 2-3 transports, as in the Canadian Shield plan of Caspian_Sub) or the option for Turn 3 with 5 more transports built Turn 2 for a total of 9 ?

Germans - keep an eye not to fall in the reverse trap of ‘successful Dieppe’. Good Luftwaffe exposed in France with too few inf, being invaded Turn 1 by British 2inf 1art 1tnk 2ftr 1bmb (1btl support) with relatively little cost.

[axis_roll]

@Magister:

Do you refer ONLY to the Turn 1 Sealion based on ‘surprise’ long-range-air ? That is forbidden competitively as far as I know, either explicitly (Turn 1 special rule) or the delayed tech in LHTR

This is about OOB rules

Turn 1, no delayed tech

[mjkusn01]

I just got a massive headache reading through all of this…

[Jennifer]

I think even 5 dice gives the allies an advantage, Switch.  There’s still a good chance of failure with 5 dice and that’s a 25 IPC SBR on Round 1 to the Germans if it does fail. 1-{(5/6)^5} is your chance to get AT LEAST one success.

However, if you have a game board or a battlemap or something I guess we could give it a go.

R1)  Build: 3 inf, 3 arm
R1)  Take W. Russia with 7 Inf, Art, 2 Arm (aa gun from Russia)
R1)  Take Ukraine with 2 Arm
R1)  Move everything EXCEPT one infantry in Buryatia westward. (SFE –> Yakut --> Novosibirsk --> Kazakh --> Caucasus)
R1)  Land Fighters, build 3 inf, arm in Caucasus
R1)  Move Sub to SZ 2, build 2 arm in Russia

29 IPC on hand

Germany 1:

Assumed success with LRA tech, 5 dice purchased.  5 Fighters, Infantry, Armor, Bomber sent to England.  Won with Armor, Bomber. (1 Fighter lost to AA Fire.)  Any other German attacks on Round 1 will be by LL and ADS from that point on.

[axis_roll]

lose only 2 inf in WRU AND take Ukraine with 2 arm?

Good turn for R1….

I can see 4 units as most likely outcome in Ukraine, but my dice sim shows 5 inf,art, 2 tank in west russia, not 7.

perhaps 6 inf in west russia if you wanted only 1 tank in ukraine.

[newpaintbrush]

@mjkusn01:

I just got a massive headache reading through all of this…

Take a hit off my crack pipe.  8-)

(note I do not actually encourage the recreational use of drugs - it’s a metaphor)

(really)  :-D

[DarthMaximus]

Has anyone been following the test game?
Thoughts up to this point?

UK was liberated once then taken for good the following turn (G3, I think). 
US and Rus have stacked SE and Japan is starting to approach Mos, but Rus has stacked Kaz as well.

[axis_roll]

@DarthMaximus:

Has anyone been following the test game?

I’ve kept an eye on it :)

@DarthMaximus:

Thoughts up to this point?

I perhaps have misplayed the last buy with Germany… I have 5 games ongoing and have not been putting my “A” game into this one, since it’s a ‘test game’

I would say that the game (even with my sub-optimal last German buy) is pretty even, probably a slight allied advantage.

[tekkyy]

yeah I’ve been watching
SE stack looks pretty bad

[allies_fly]

interesting thread.

looks like it could be a two on two game  or two on two and one-half (UK has some pieces from looking at the battlemap)

Who wins that game (2-on-2)?

[Jennifer]

@axis_roll:

lose only 2 inf in WRU AND take Ukraine with 2 arm?

Good turn for R1….

I can see 4 units as most likely outcome in Ukraine, but my dice sim shows 5 inf,art, 2 tank in west russia, not 7.

perhaps 6 inf in west russia if you wanted only 1 tank in ukraine.

W. Russia:
Attacker: 9 Infantry, Artillery, 2 Armor
Defender: 3 Infantry, Artillery, Armor

Odds: 25% Attacker with 7 Infantry, Artillery, 2 Armor
Odds: 25% Attacker with 6 Infantry, Artillery, 2 Armor

From the standpoint of being Germany, I took the worst case scenario.

---

Ukraine:
Attacker: 3 Infantry, Artillery, 2 Armor, 2 Fighters
Defender: 3 Infantry, Artillery, Armor, Fighter

Odds: 21% 2 Armor and 2 Fighters
Odds: 17% 1 Armor and 2 Fighters

Again, from the German perspective, I took the worst case scenario.

---

BTW, those are the average and median outcomes using frood and 10,000 settings.  I assumed standard orders of loss, since I highly doubt Germany would take a fighter before a tank or Russia for that matter.

Anyway, I just wanted to support my statements since they were questioned by Axis_Roll.  Dunno why you are getting such low numbers in W. Russia.  Perhaps you did not set it up with the same attacking forces I did. (Which is why I posted the attacking forces.)

Either way, that’s almost my static Russian attack plan.  I’ve been following it up (lately) with either 3 infantry, 3 armor or artillery, 2 armor, fighter as well, just to keep the forward momentum while Germany is reeling.  And if they do something silly like Operation Sea Lion, I’d press forward even harder, on Russia 2 I think.  Basically, he’ll have nothing in Europe to stop me, having sent everything to England and losing almost all his air force (or even all of it) to take it.  There’s absolutely no reason why Russia shouldn’t be in E. Europe and Balkans on R3 if that’s the case. (Germany would have to build fighters to trade or risk tanks.  Russia doesn’t have to build fighters and can focus on Infantry and Tanks to push and hold.)