Yes, if America decides to try and move through SZ 60 with those ships in the combat movement phase, they will have to stop and engage the defending enemies. However, if you clear them out and then try to move your ships through on non-combat they can sail through.
Countering Operation Sea Lion
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so we have a test game to watch
and its set to 5 LRA dice
I am hoping that means we have a consensus on outcome being obvious for case of getting LRA with fewer dice
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No one is arguing that if Germany gets LRA with 1 Die that it’s over powering. Not unrecoverable, but darn near close.
However, statistically speaking, you’d need at least 6 dice to be relatively sure of 1 success. (1/6+1/6+1/6+1/6+1/6+1/6=1) And if I was going to try it, I don’t think I’d take less then 6 dice. However, 5 seems okay. At least it allows you to build 5 infantry still.
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so we have a test game to watch
and its set to 5 LRA dice
I am hoping that means we have a consensus on outcome being obvious for case of getting LRA with fewer dice
I picked 5 dice rolls, b/c with anything less I wouldn’t be scared if Ger tried to tech since with 4 rolls it is about 50% and drops as you go to 2 or 3 dice. At that point it is to the Allies advantage to make Germnay buy the dice, then try to actually roll the dice for tech, then actually roll the aa-fire for London, then try to roll the actual battle of London.
All those odds add up to an Allied advantage so there is no point in trying to prevent Sea Lion since by simply doing nothing the Allies will win 60-70% of the games at least.
Looks like our test may have been a bust anyway, since it looks like Russia will blitz to Belin on R1 after UK took out the blocker inf in Balk.
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Sry Cmdr Jennifer.
I’ve redone the battle on frood with your proposed OOL (which is in fact the OOL I used in frood 2.0) and the results stay the same 50% 0 units for germany. The only time I got results simmiliar to yours was, when I only used 1 defending inf for the brits instead of 2.
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Sry Cmdr Jennifer.
I’ve redone the battle on frood with your proposed OOL (which is in fact the OOL I used in frood 2.0) and the results stay the same 50% 0 units for germany. The only time I got results simmiliar to yours was, when I only used 1 defending inf for the brits instead of 2.
This should be the link to the display I am getting from frood with my results:
Overall %*: A. survives: 77.8% D. survives: 18.1% No one survives: 4.1%
- percentages may not total 100 due to rounding. The average results from above are highlighted in charts below, while the median result (equal odds of getting a worse or better result) is written in red. Attacker results:
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Probability % # units / losses
0.09% 7: 1 Inf, 1 Arm, 4 Fig, 1 Bom / no units. : 0 IPCs
0.72% 6: 1 Arm, 4 Fig, 1 Bom / 1 Inf. : 3 IPCs
6.05% 5: 1 Arm, 3 Fig, 1 Bom / 1 Inf, 1 Fig. : 13 IPCs
18.7% 4: 1 Arm, 2 Fig, 1 Bom / 1 Inf, 2 Fig. : 23 IPCs
24.05% 3: 1 Arm, 1 Fig, 1 Bom / 1 Inf, 3 Fig. : 33 IPCs
17.78% 2: 1 Arm, 1 Bom / 1 Inf, 4 Fig. : 43 IPCs
10.42% 1: 1 Arm / 1 Inf, 4 Fig, 1 Bom. : 58 IPCs
22.19% 0: no units / 1 Inf, 1 Arm, 4 Fig, 1 Bom. : 63 IPCs–------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Defender results:
Probability % # units / losses
0.08% 6: 2 Inf, 1 Art, 1 Arm, 2 Fig / 1 Bom. : 15 IPCs Lost
0.44% 5: 1 Inf, 1 Art, 1 Arm, 2 Fig / 1 Inf, 1 Bom. : 18 IPCs Lost
1.28% 4: 1 Art, 1 Arm, 2 Fig / 2 Inf, 1 Bom. : 21 IPCs Lost
3.24% 3: 1 Arm, 2 Fig / 2 Inf, 1 Art, 1 Bom. : 25 IPCs Lost
5.86% 2: 2 Fig / 2 Inf, 1 Art, 1 Arm, 1 Bom. : 30 IPCs Lost
7.22% 1: 1 Fig / 2 Inf, 1 Art, 1 Arm, 1 Fig, 1 Bom. : 40 IPCs Lost81.88% 0: no units / 2 Inf, 1 Art, 1 Arm, 2 Fig, 1 Bom. : 50 IPCs Lost (+30 IPC Plundered if Germany takes the land)
–------------------------------------------------------------------------------I glowed and changed the text color of both the most likely outcome and the average income. Everytime I run this the percentage changes from 24 to 23 to 22 but it’s always about a 1 in 4 chance of the attacker being wiped out without taking England.
Just to re-iterate:
I am assuming Russia took Ukraine on Round 1 with at least 1 armor and 2 fighters remaining.
I am assuming England scored 1 out of 6 Hits with the Anti-Aircraft Gun in London hitting a fighter.
I am assuming Germany spent 30 IPC and got 1 out of 6 Hits for Long Range Aircraft Technology (only fair, 1 out of 6 for England, 1 out of 6 for Germany)
I am assuming the Germans MUST have 1 armor die last, which could cost them the battle if they roll a 4, 5 or 6 and all they have is an armor vs a fighter
I am assuming that England loses the bomber first. Honestly, I highly doubt there is a chance that England would want to keep the bomber in that scenario anyway, unless they got dang lucky with them AA Guns and the attacker missed everything in site. - percentages may not total 100 due to rounding. The average results from above are highlighted in charts below, while the median result (equal odds of getting a worse or better result) is written in red. Attacker results:
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Oh yea, and note, the defender surviving is not the important part of this battle. The attacker MUST survive in order for this battle to be considered a win.
So it’s not 80/20% It’s 75/25% with attacker surviving 75% of the time, give or take depending on the whether where Frood’s server is, and the attacker losing it all 25% of the time.
Remember, if you do not win, you do NOT pass go, you do not collect 38 IPC and you do lose the Luftwaffe.
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I used your link and redid the battle I got your results then. But then I change the 1 (att land unit must live) to 0 and instead changed the OOL for the attacker in such a way, that the arm was lost last and now I got once again the 50% 0 units result. I’ve also done the battle in LL and the result seems to support the 50% failure for germany.
Maybe the program is flawed or just the option with the numbers of atacking land units that have to live.
And just lo clarify this: “I do not propose the sea lion.”
(I just stated that I would use only 1 die for tech even if someone wants to try this, so he could do a nearly normal buy on G1. If it worked fine he could try his sea lion then if not he still could play a normal game)
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To clarify my previous position…
With OOB tech rules, and $25 spent on tech, Sea Lion IS a viable option. If you add a bid of $8 to Germany as a TRN in SZ5, it is VERY doable.
If Russia sends FIGs to London on USSR 1, then Germany skips the tech rolls and goes balls-to-the-wall on Moscow; as does Japan, even if it means skipping Pearl.
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If you are playing with box rules then there would be no bid. And even with 5 dice you’re still hampering yourself a lot since, as I showed, you only have a 75% chance to win in England. That’s a significant chance to lose everything without taking England.
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If with 5 dice LRA does not happen, you just abort, go INF heavy, and play a normal KRF game.
VERY little lost in the attempt for Germany since UK still has to defeat the Baltic Fleet to land freely in Karelia/Eastern. And Germany ofcourse retains their 5 FIGs, 1 BOM if you abort Sea Lion…
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Correct. However, there is still a LARGE cost to Germany. You just SBRed yourself for 25 IPC on Round 1. So you build 5 infantry and, let’s say, you liberate Ukraine, take Egypt and take Karelia.
You have 42 IPC like normal. Except, you don’t have the support you would have had if you had not gone for LRA. That means England liberates Karelia for Russia to preserve Russian power, America lands in England to stop future Sea Lion attempts until they can sink the SZ 5 fleet with minimal costs and England probably liberates Egypt. (You can only hit it with 2 infantry, 2 armor, fighter, bomber, so odds are you don’t have a lot of defense there at the moment.)
The only difference in this from a normal game, if you go 25 IPC for tech and fail, is that you are down 25 IPC in units. Roughly 5 infantry, 2 armor’s worth. That’s pretty significant if you realize that Russia only had 24 IPC itself for round one purchases and you spend MORE then that on tech dice.
Basically, what I’m trying to say is that win or lose, Germany is NOW playing a defensive game and hoping Japan can take out Russia before America (and later England) can take out Germany.
I don’t know if I want to try it. You only have a 67% chance to get the tech (best I can figure it) and a 75% chance to get London. That’s like a 50/50 shot (0.67*0.75). You want to risk that, knowing that if you do succeed in London you are without an airforce. Sure, you have tanks (you said you’d build tanks, you didn’t say planes.) but tanks you will lose as you trade land with a nation who has planes not tanks to use.
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You are ignoring the fact that if Germany DOES hit the tech, then 3 out of 4 games UK is lost, and Germany gains $38 IPC and UK loses the ability to build on UK 1.
75% is a chance I will take every time it is given for a Capital battle…
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But you are ignoring the fact that you don’t have anything to follow up on Germany 2 when you do that. You’ve pretty much blown your wind and are now 100% on the defense.
You’ve lost Africa. Russia’s probably taking at least Balkans on top of Ukraine, Belorussia and liberating Karelia, however, they may be taking Norway too if they can.
England’s sinking your fleet in SZ 6 and Russia’s going to send the submarine to finish it off if they have too. That should stop a second Sea Lion if it is a threat. (If it is not a threat, then no need to attack the fleet.)
England can easily liberate Egypt and England without losing the ability to sink the SZ 59 transport and impact the SZ 45 battle (which never results in anything as far as I’m concerned.)
America is unimpacted. They normally unload in England anyway, so you’re not really slowing them at all. All you’re doing is allowing Russia to get stronger in comparison to Germany and do so faster. You’ve SIGNIFICANTLY shifted the balance of power. Instead of 105 IPC advantage you are down to 40ish maybe, depends on how well Russia does in R1 and R2.
Yes, you can build tanks and push back. However, as I mentioned, Russia’s going to be able to bleed those tanks off until you replace your fighters (of which you have NONE) without risking their own armor. That means they’ll not only shrink your stack but also build up their own. If you buy fighters to replace loses, you have negated the lion’s share of the benefit of taking out England. (Because it will cost you 50 IPC to replace the 5 fighters, you’ve taken 38 IPC that’s a 12 IPC net loss.) You still keep England out for an extra round, but again, England’s not exactly a mover and shacker on the board in the first 3 rounds anyway. Waiting one more round to recover from a capitol sack is not that bad considering Russia’s earning 35 IPC on Russia 2 and Germany’s earning maybe 38 on Round 2. (Not to mention, the Germans have lost the med fleet if they did not even attempt to kill the British in Egypt. You’d only get to hit it with 4 ground units anyway, and there are 3 defenders, one very powerful to over come, so it’s no forgone conclusion you’d even get it.)
Sorry, I just don’t see this working out for Germany in any scenario EXCEPT where you get the technology with the roll of 1 or 2 dice. Sure, you have a 1 in 3 shot if you roll two dice, plus or minus (think it’s actuall 30%) which would give you a significant advantage. (Since now you can still build 10 infantry on G1, and just short yourself the tanks instead of a LARGE portion of your builds to all your builds.)
But to be realistic, you’d need 6 dice to succeed. And that leaves 10 IPC for units. (1 in 6 chance, so if you take 6 shots then you have 1 in 6 + 1 in 6 …. which is LL for 6 in 6 or a success almost all the time.)
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I picked 5 dice rolls, b/c with anything less I wouldn’t be scared if Ger tried to tech since with 4 rolls it is about 50% and drops as you go to 2 or 3 dice.
Actually I would be scared if Germany buys with few dice. Though you are playtesting that now so you’ll give insights soon.
The way things are going, how about a playtest between Jen and switch?
Jen puts it at 1-2 dice. axis_roll is thinking 3 but will test 5 anyway in his game with DM.
Where do you put it at, switch? -
I go 5 dice with no Russian FIGs in London.
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The people that are testing these scenarios with 1-3 tech dice should also play some test scenarios when they play the Germans down 5, 10, or 15 IPC, to represent the 5/6, 25/36, and 125/216 chances of failure.
Even the 4 tech dice for 625/1296 chance of failure is considerable - heck, even the 8 dice version has a nasty chance of failure. But 1-3 tech dice means you really shoot yourself in the ass a fair amount of the time.
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Do you refer ONLY to the Turn 1 Sealion based on ‘surprise’ long-range-air ? That is forbidden competitively as far as I know, either explicitly (Turn 1 special rule) or the delayed tech in LHTR.
Or do you refer to the Turn 2 try (after building 2-3 transports, as in the Canadian Shield plan of Caspian_Sub) or the option for Turn 3 with 5 more transports built Turn 2 for a total of 9 ?
Germans - keep an eye not to fall in the reverse trap of ‘successful Dieppe’. Good Luftwaffe exposed in France with too few inf, being invaded Turn 1 by British 2inf 1art 1tnk 2ftr 1bmb (1btl support) with relatively little cost.
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Do you refer ONLY to the Turn 1 Sealion based on ‘surprise’ long-range-air ? That is forbidden competitively as far as I know, either explicitly (Turn 1 special rule) or the delayed tech in LHTR
This is about OOB rules
Turn 1, no delayed tech
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I just got a massive headache reading through all of this…
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I think even 5 dice gives the allies an advantage, Switch. There’s still a good chance of failure with 5 dice and that’s a 25 IPC SBR on Round 1 to the Germans if it does fail. 1-{(5/6)^5} is your chance to get AT LEAST one success.
However, if you have a game board or a battlemap or something I guess we could give it a go.
R1) Build: 3 inf, 3 arm
R1) Take W. Russia with 7 Inf, Art, 2 Arm (aa gun from Russia)
R1) Take Ukraine with 2 Arm
R1) Move everything EXCEPT one infantry in Buryatia westward. (SFE –> Yakut --> Novosibirsk --> Kazakh --> Caucasus)
R1) Land Fighters, build 3 inf, arm in Caucasus
R1) Move Sub to SZ 2, build 2 arm in Russia29 IPC on hand
Germany 1:
Assumed success with LRA tech, 5 dice purchased. 5 Fighters, Infantry, Armor, Bomber sent to England. Won with Armor, Bomber. (1 Fighter lost to AA Fire.) Any other German attacks on Round 1 will be by LL and ADS from that point on.
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