You won’t be able to get the Maltese Fighter nor the Egyptian Tactical Bomber to England. No Airbase in Gibraltar means I don’t have to worry about scrambles anymore. However, even if we pretend they do make it, that’s not enough.
Round 1 you can get 9 units for England
Round 2 you should have 27 IPC to spend (due to Convoy raids from submarines) and 12 damage to your major complex limiting you to 6 units
Round 3 you should be facing 26 ground units + 12 aircraft
For the sake of argument:
13 Infantry, 5 Artillery, 8 Armor, 5 Fighters, 5 Tactical Bombers, 2 Strategic Bombers, Cruiser Bombardment, Battleship Bombardment (unless you want to scramble and lose aircraft for defense, or if you want to drop 16 IPC to stop it.)
vs
4 AA Guns, 20 Infantry, 6 Fighters, 1 Tactical Bomber, 1 Strategic Bomber (that includes your Med planes.)
Figure 2 Fighters lost to AA Gun Fire: Leaves Germany with a 96% chance of success. Since frood is dying on me, had to use that other Calc and I don’t really like it, so let’s say 90%.
BTW, it’s off topic, but I don’t like that calculator because it’s off by 50% in just about every naval engagement I have ever tried to use it for. (Exageration, of course.)
@Alsch91:
You will find that every plane (1 Scotland, 3 London, 1 Gibraltar, 1 Malta, 1 Med fleet) will be defending against Sealion. You will not be able to stop this.
This in in addition to the extra 5 hits (4 AA and 1 Strat) added to London.