G40 Whitmann (AXIS) VS. JamesAleman (ALLIES)

[Whitmann]

SZ112: RND1
SZ113->SZ112 - 1Crz+1BB
Ger->SZ111 - 1Tac

ATK:
Rolls: 2@3 1@4; Total Hits: 22@3: (3, 3)1@4: (6)

DEF:
Rolls: 2@3; Total Hits: 12@3: (6, 3)

[Whitmann]

GERM TURN NCM:

1TRN SZ113-> sz112
2IF DEN->WGE
3INF+2RTL SGE->WGE
5INF+3RTL GER->WGE
3INF POL->HUN
6INF GER->HUN
1AA GER->HUN

PLACE 1CV 2TRN SZ112

COLLECT:
37 ACTUAL
10 BONUS $
SAVED 0
47 IPC COLLECT

G40_Whitmann(Axis)_vs_JamesAleman(Allies)_01AGERMANY.AAM

[JamesAleman]

Russia TURN 1: Whitmann (AXIS) VS. JamesAleman (ALLIES)

Buy: 37 IPC

6 artillery
3 Mechanized
save 1 IPC

Non Combat Move:

To Bel: 3inf-Bal; 2inf-Epl; 6inf,art, aagun-Nov
To Nukr: 2inf-Bes; 3 inf-Sukr
To Ros: 2 inf-Cau
To Vol: mech,arm-Rus
To Rus: ftr-Nov
To Bry: inf,art,aagun-Rus
To Nov: 3inf-Vyb; 2inf-Kar; inf-Arc
To z125: Sub-z127
To z113: Battleship

Placement: 6art, 3 mech

3 art-Nov
3 art-Sukr
3 mech-Vol

Collection:

37+ 1 Saved = 38

G40_Whitmann(Axis)_vs_JamesAleman(Allies)_01BRussia.AAM

[JamesAleman]

Hold on, forgot the far east

[JamesAleman]

Ussr 1 Amended:

Non Combat Far East:

To Yak: inf-Bury
To Amu: 6inf,aagun-Sak; 5inf-Bury

G40_Whitmann(Axis)_vs_JamesAleman(Allies)_01BRussia.AAM

[JamesAleman]

Battleship is in z113 corrected map

Sorry for this sloppy round, I’m rushing before leaving for work

G40_Whitmann(Axis)_vs_JamesAleman(Allies)_01BRussia.AAM

[Whitmann]

JAPAN TURN 1:

BUY: 26IPC
1 FACTORY= 12
2 TRANS   = 14
TOTAL      = 26
SAVE        = 0

COMBAT:
Cha: (DEF: 0)
Jeh->Cha: 1Inf

Anh: (DEF: 0)
Ksu->Anh: 3Inf+1Rtl
Sha->Anh: 3Inf+1Rtl
Jeh->Anh: 1Inf+1Rtl

Hun: (DEF: 2 INF)
Ksi->Hun: 3Inf+1 Rtl
Man->Hun 2Fht+1Tac
FOR->Hun: 1FHT

Yun: (DEF: 4 INF)
Kwa->Yun: 3Inf+1Rtl
Ksu->Yun: 1Fht+1Tac
Jpn->Yun: 2Bmb

Amu: (DEF: 17 INF + 1AA)
Kor->Amu 4Inf
Man-> Amu 6INF+1RTL+1MCH
Oki->Amu 1INF+ (Jap) 1ARM (transport SZ19->SZ5)
OKI-> Amu: 1FHT
Kor-> Amu: 1FHT
JPN-> Amu: 2FHT+2TAC
SZ6-> Amu: 2FHT+2TAC
Man->Amu: 1Tac

[Whitmann]

Hun: (DEF: 2 INF) RND 1
Ksi->Hun: 3Inf+1 Rtl
Man->Hun 2Fht+1Tac
FOR->Hun: 1FHT

ATK:
Rolls: 2@1 2@2 2@3 1@4; Total Hits: 22@1: (5, 5)2@2: (6, 4)2@3: (5, 2)1@4: (3)

DEF:
Rolls: 2@2; Total Hits: 02@2: (5, 4)

[Whitmann]

Yun: (DEF: 4 INF) RND1
Kwa->Yun: 3Inf+1Rtl
Ksu->Yun: 1Fht+1Tac
Jpn->Yun: 2Bmb

ATK:
Rolls: 2@1 2@2 1@3 3@4; Total Hits: 32@1: (1, 2)2@2: (4, 5)1@3: (6)3@4: (3, 1, 5)

DEF:
Rolls: 4@2; Total Hits: 24@2: (4, 1, 4, 1)

[Whitmann]

Yun: (DEF: 4 INF) RND2
Kwa->Yun: 3Inf+1Rtl
Ksu->Yun: 1Fht+1Tac
Jpn->Yun: 2Bmb

ATK:
Rolls: 2@2 1@3 3@4; Total Hits: 52@2: (1, 1)1@3: (3)3@4: (5, 2, 3)

DEF:
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 11@2: (1)

[Whitmann]

Amu: (DEF: 17 INF + 1AA)
Kor->Amu 4Inf
Man-> Amu 6INF+1RTL+1MCH
Oki->Amu 1INF+ (Jap) 1ARM (transport SZ19->SZ5)
OKI-> Amu: 1FHT
Kor-> Amu: 1FHT
JPN-> Amu: 2FHT+2TAC
SZ6-> Amu: 2FHT+2TAC
Man->Amu: 1Tac

AA Fire:

Fighter:
Rolls: 6@1; Total Hits: 16@1: (6, 2, 5, 4, 2, 1)

Tac:
Rolls: 5@1; Total Hits: 35@1: (1, 1, 4, 3, 1)

[Whitmann]

Amu: (DEF: 17 INF + 1AA) RND 1
Kor->Amu 4Inf
Man-> Amu 6INF+1RTL+1MCH
Oki->Amu 1INF+ (Jap) 1ARM (transport SZ19->SZ5)
OKI-> Amu: 1FHT
Kor-> Amu: 1FHT
JPN-> Amu: 2FHT+2TAC
SZ6-> Amu: 2FHT+2TAC
Man->Amu: 1Tac

ATK:
Rolls: 11@1 2@2 6@3 2@4; Total Hits: 711@1: (3, 6, 5, 2, 1, 2, 4, 4, 4, 6, 3)2@2: (1, 6)6@3: (2, 4, 3, 1, 6, 1)2@4: (5, 1)
DEF:
Rolls: 17@2; Total Hits: 917@2: (2, 6, 2, 6, 2, 2, 2, 2, 6, 1, 5, 6, 5, 6, 1, 1, 4)

[Whitmann]

Amu: (DEF: 17 INF + 1AA) RND 1
Kor->Amu 4Inf
Man-> Amu 6INF+1RTL+1MCH
Oki->Amu 1INF+ (Jap) 1ARM (transport SZ19->SZ5)
OKI-> Amu: 1FHT
Kor-> Amu: 1FHT
JPN-> Amu: 2FHT+2TAC
SZ6-> Amu: 2FHT+2TAC
Man->Amu: 1Tac

ATK:
Rolls: 2@1 2@2 6@3 2@4; Total Hits: 32@1: (1, 5)2@2: (1, 6)6@3: (5, 6, 5, 6, 5, 5)2@4: (6, 2)
DEF:
Rolls: 10@2; Total Hits: 410@2: (1, 5, 1, 1, 6, 5, 3, 1, 6, 4)

[Whitmann]

Amu: (DEF: 17 INF + 1AA) RND 3
Kor->Amu 4Inf
Man-> Amu 6INF+1RTL+1MCH
Oki->Amu 1INF+ (Jap) 1ARM (transport SZ19->SZ5)
OKI-> Amu: 1FHT
Kor-> Amu: 1FHT
JPN-> Amu: 2FHT+2TAC
SZ6-> Amu: 2FHT+2TAC
Man->Amu: 1Tac

ATK:
Rolls: 1@2 6@3 2@4; Total Hits: 61@2: (1)6@3: (5, 3, 3, 5, 3, 1)2@4: (5, 1)
DEF:
Rolls: 7@2; Total Hits: 47@2: (1, 5, 1, 4, 2, 5, 1)

[Whitmann]

Amu: (DEF: 17 INF + 1AA) RND 1
Kor->Amu 4Inf
Man-> Amu 6INF+1RTL+1MCH
Oki->Amu 1INF+ (Jap) 1ARM (transport SZ19->SZ5)
OKI-> Amu: 1FHT
Kor-> Amu: 1FHT
JPN-> Amu: 2FHT+2TAC
SZ6-> Amu: 2FHT+2TAC
Man->Amu: 1Tac

ATK:
:aaa  4@3 2@4:
DEF:
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 11@2: (2)

[Whitmann]

You have absolutely bested me on the dice in the first two moves of this game.

I see no really way to come back from this battle as well as from the battle for France on the Europe side. This was a battle, in which the odds had me losing 46.94 IPC’s worth of units, saw me lose well over 100, along with Germany failing to capture France, which the Germans win well over 80%. One of those alone is a game turning battle.  Two I feel is game ending.

Wish it could have been a more interesting game.

Good luck in the rest of the tournament.

Cheers, Whitmann.

[JamesAleman]

I am sorry about those outcomes, it was not my intention to advance by luck. I understand your frustration and your reasoning.

I wish things had gone differently, typically I see Amur fall, killing 2 Jap planes and 9-10 land units over 3 combat rounds (5,3,1 or 6,3,1 or 5,4,1) which makes the trade almost even in IPCs47-50 Japan, 56 IPC USSR if I count the aagun, plus USSR gets the 12 IPCs. I also hope to delay an India first approach with that “bait” and permit USSR to enter China with its air force and fast movers to keep China in the game. Hitting 4 planes and 18 times in 4 combat rounds I agree, is absurd. In fact that is twice what I anticipate or see in most games, last time I played someone my luck went the other way and I only hit 1 air unit and 6 land units vs Kobu.

France was a tighter battle, and while I hit my average and typical 10 times in the first 3 combat rounds (5,4,1) you hit below what you needed to and that ended poorly.

I also had a great outcome in Yunnan, although I do see Japan taking 3 hits some games, when China hits twice (lucky) on round 1.

If its ok with Jen I’m ok re-rolling Amur. I only ask that if I get totally smoked that I be allowed 1 air unit and 9 land units (5, 3, 1). Maybe I’ll need to redo a big battle down the road :) giving you a guaranteed average outcome.

I’d rather advance through my actions then through blind luck. Plus I can continue to test a concept, to see if stacking in Amur is worth it.

Whatever you decide, thank you for the game.

[Whitmann]

Wow that is more then generous! I’m not one to just quit because of a few bad dice, but in this case the combination of the catastrophic dice both in France and AMU paint a clear picture.  If Cmdr Jennifer is ok with your offer I would be happy to try to continue and play.  Ask her and let me know.

Cheers, Whitmann

[JamesAleman]

I’ve sent her a message, best of luck if we do proceed.

I asked her to respond in this thread with her decision.

(if I were the axis, I wouldn’t be playing the good guy role)  :-D

[Jennifer]

It is my opinion that the France battle was due to insufficient attackers to negate the effects of the RNG (Random Number Generator.)

Average outcome of 10,000 battles
***Attacker: 8 Inf, 3 Art, 2 Arm, 1 Fig, 1 Bom.
v.
***Defender: 7 Inf, 2 Art, 2 Arm, 1 Fig.

Average battle duration: 3.4 rounds of combat

Overall %*:
***A. survives: 80.7%
***D. survives: 17.8%
***No one survives: 1.5%

Given the number of units and the amount of attacking "3"s vs defending "2"s this result is not highly implausible.  It is, however, unfortunate and I do empathize with Whitmann.

The lack of France to fall, but remain vacant may be a blessing in disguise for Italy.  Now they are prepared to collect an extra 23 IPC (19 treasury + 4 territory) from France to use in the Mediterreanian Sea.

---

---

In regards to the battle at Amur, I see no real fault in the attack plan.  Sufficient punch was brought to bear for any realistic scenario that could be suspected.  It is a simple case of the RNG screwing with the universe.

Average outcome of 10,000 battles
***Attacker: Attacker: 12 Inf, 1 Art, 1 Arm, 6 Fig, 5 Tactical.
v. 
***Defender: Defender: 17 Inf.

Average battle duration: 2.5 rounds of combat

Overall %*:
***A. survives: 99.9%
***D. survives: 0.1%
***No one survives: 0%

The loss of 3 tactical bombers and one fighter in opening fire certainly was very unlucky.  That is near 50% accuracy with an AA Gun that usually gets 17% accuracy.  Within reason one should expect some modulation in the results, perhaps 9-25% range of accuracy.

The follow-up was just plain deadly.  9 of 17 hits (53% Accuracy) with units that have 33% accuracy.

---

---

To be honest, before making a decision I would really like to see a final Japan map.  I understand the demoralizing situation, I’ve been there myself, as I am sure most players have been.

This is how I am ruling the case.

1)  The battle in France, while having 80% odds of success and failing, is not detrimental to the outcome of the game.  Since there are no defenders left in Paris, and I highly suspect that England is not going to be flying fighters in there to be helplessly slaughtered by the Italians, I feel the European axis have good chances of recovery.  It should be interesting to see how Italy chooses to spend their unforeseen gains, financially!  Woe be to the Royal Navy and African Defenders.  I suspect mass carnage is soon to follow here.

2)  Yugoslavia went badly for the Germans, but given how the naval engagements went, I do not feel the Germans are negatively impacted by this battle, in an overall military strength situation.

3)  Japan’s attack on Amur was devastating to Japan.  Japan had 40 punch going into the battle, Russia had 34 punch. One would have rightly assumed the loss of 3 aircraft and 10 infantry in that attack, far less than the dice revealed.

It is my opinion that the situation in Europe is far from unsalvagable.  I realize that it can feel demoralizing to lose France, especially if you took  more casualties than you expected too.  I just do not see the situation there as too far gone to overcome.  It is my opinion that Italy should be able to make up the difference and coupled with Germany’s effects at sea, Europe can be salvaged.

It is my opinion that Japan is too far in the hole to be an effective ally of the Germans and Italians.  The loss of 150 IPC in the fields of Amur depleted them of so many resources that they probably will not be able to recover before Allies can enter the war.

---

---

Given that both players appear to be in agreement, I am willing to rewind the clock to the Conduct Combat Phase of Japan’s First Turn.  All purchases and combat moves are final, but all dice may be rerolled.

Note:  All dice must be rerolled or no dice can be rerolled.

Your map is attached.  I hope the ruling is to everyone’s satisfaction, if there is an issue and you’d like me to consider something I may have missed, please feel free to PM me.

~Jennifer

G40_Whitmann(Axis)_vs_JamesAleman(Allies)_01Cjapan_conductcombat.AAM