Sealion defense

[garett]

Hi, I’ve noticed there are some complaints around the boards regarding how easy a G3 sealion is.  I believe I have come up with a defense for it.  My definition of a defense is one in which the odds of German success is at or below 50%, as risking two rounds German income and the luftwaffe on a coin toss for Britain is a good deal for Britain in my books.

I will state my assumptions on the German move first:
-no English/Scottish scrambles
-sea zones 106, 111, 112 destroyed
-sea zones 109, 110 not attacked
-cruiser in 91 can be there or not, we’ll say not for the sake of charity
-all luftwaffe survive
-G1 builds Carrier, sub, destroyer

England Round 1:
-move entire navy to sea zone 92 except one destroyer to sea zone 91 to kill sub with planes if necessary (you want a destroyer here) and one destroyer from egypt to 94 to block Italian ships
-egypt transport grabs the Alexandria tank and Maltese inf on the way
-leave two English and the French fighter on England, move scottish inf down, land 3 fighters on gibralter, the tac stays on the carrier
-build nine men
-collect 28+5-3 (for subs of canada, we’ll say)=30+1=31

Finish with SZ 92 defended by 1 cruiser, 1 destroyer, 1 carrier, 1 battle ship, 1 tac and 3 fighters on malta.

Finish with 13 men and 3 fighters on England, chance of successful German assault with 2 bombards 11 planes 1 man 1 tank: ~18%

Italy 1:
most that can get to 92 is 2 fighters and a tac (if germany took southern france).  I will assume they do not attempt as realistically they would only wound the 2 capital ships at best.

France turn 1:
-move two north african men onto open uk transport
-move navy from 93 to 91 if not already dead

German turn 2:
-assume they build 10 transports
-They could try to block the navy in 91, but they need to beat the destroyer, possibly the french navy and the 3 fighter on gibralter. 
-I will assume that your typical player will instead defend the transports

Uk turn 2:
-If seazone 91 destroyer is alive, move to sea zone 119 to block coming to wales,
land the rest of the navy that can reach in sea zone 110, drop tank/man off in England, land all aircraft in england
-build 10 men

France turn 2:
-drop two frenchmen off the transport onto england, move navy up to 110 if it exists

Germany now faces:
-26 men, 1 tank, 6 fighters and a tac
-a large navy to break that they must send aircraft to else england can scramble 3 fighters and prevent the amphib
-assume something goes wrong in my plan and Germany can send all the luftwaffe (11), 11 men and 11 tanks, with 2 bombards, odds of success for Germany = 38%
–-----
Alternatively, germany clogs up sea zones 91 and 104 with navy. 
Brittain counter 91 with her navy and wins, 104 with planes.  England would only likely see significant losses if a loaded carrier were in 104, so both sides lose about two aircraft.  (If germany loses 2 planes and england loses 3 germany’s odds jump to 60%)
Germany has 3 surface ships so either 109 or 110 is open for the French/English transport reinforcement drop.

I’d like to hear your input on other ways germany could beat this, but as is they can’t see any odds much greater than 50% without getting a little lucky (they have to have a surface ship on the water in seazone 91 at the end of g2, and have to take out at least 3 aircraft in 104 defense and not lose a single plane in any other battle.)

Is sea lion doable? Yes. But it’s looking pretty risky now.  If they fail, the navy and the luftwaffe is done for and the English have a decently sized consolidated navy.

EDIT:: I forgot something.  If the germans move their whole navy to 104 and 91 and you kill it, then they need to commit aircraft to defending the amphib in case you scramble, 3 German aircraft to the amphib should bring the advantage back to England.

[garett]

@mantlefan:

Similar to my opening UK, except I attack tobruk (ftr from malta can still get over to the med navy), and I don’t use the DD in the med to block; if Italy attacks you in 92 it’s a good  thing. Also I buy 1 ftr 6 inf, it’s a good buy wheter they go sealion ro not.

Your strat is a great 100% sealion kill, but if germany does not go sealion you are in troouble. I try to walk the line between inviting Germany to die and convincing them not to do it. If I were germany against your opening UK moves I would switch to barbarossa since you really put yourself in a sealion defense only position it seems

I don’t see it as all bad.  If Germany switches, your entire navy is off the coast of Gibralter and can still hit Italy pretty hard.  Consolidate around malta turn 2 and destroy italian navy turn 3.

[garett]

@mantlefan:

Be advised Italy will probably have a carrier by that point (at least If I were them), but I agree that you can still get italy eventually. My point was that if am defending sealion, I don;t want to be so powerful that germany doesn’t attack. This also has the side effect of allowing you to hem in italy a bit rather than doing a go for borke everyhting and the kitchen sink to london defense.

I can appreciate the benefit of that, and I’m sure this can be modified by attacking tobruk and just picking up the two French from north Africa and still have a good chance of defending England.

I had seen people complaining that they don’t like a game where Germany can get England with 70%+ odds all the time.  The main purpose of this post was that the game is fairly balanced and a sealion isn’t viable against a turtled England unless some battles play out very nicely…battles which occur after the transports are built.

[Commando Brado]

FYI, putting a Brit DD in SZ94 does not block the Italian navy. The Italian navy can still reach the Brit navy in SZ92 by traversing SZ’s 95 and 93.

[garett]

@Commando:

FYI, putting a Brit DD in SZ94 does not block the Italian navy. The Italian navy can still reach the Brit navy in SZ92 by traversing SZ’s 95 and 93.

I think the French may take issue with that.

[Commando Brado]

Good point! Forgot about the French!  :-D

[taschuler]

who doesn’t?

[ghr2]

ya, they rarely do anything worth while after France falls

[Young Grasshopper]

My defense for Sea lion is no defense, when I see signs of Sea lion I begin planning my offense.

I build a battleship and a destroyer UK1 in Canadian waters, and a Aircraft carrier and a cruiser UK2 also in Halifax. I consolidate any and all surviving ships from the G1 blitz and fly all 3 fighters out of England and land 2 of them on my new carrier, just around the time Germany has dropped 10 transports in the Channel.

Meanwhile the US is building a landing force big enough to liberate London not long after it falls. They will need their 1 cruiser and as many transports and land units that can be built on all 3 minor ICs in 2 turns, plus all their land units and 2 transports from the West. A Battleship or Aircraft carrier from the West is helpful but not necessary (best to leave US capital ships in the Pacific to deal with Japan) due to the big boat support from the UK in Canada.

I do all of this to coax Germany into buying sea units that will eventually be destroyed, to allow Germany an easy invasion during turn 3 which will bring the US into the war early, and to save as many British units as possible.

I find that a planned liberation is a lot less risky than a planned fortification, as far as preserving forces are concerned. Imagine using all your starting forces and spending 2 turns of IPCs on your capital just to lose it all. So now you have no Capital, zero money and very few units in Africa to get back into the war.

Now imagine losing your Capital, having zero money, but now in the Atlantic you have a battleship, a full carrier, 2 cruisers, 2 destroyers and a transport ready to merge with an American fleet of 1 cruiser escorting 9 full transports. The Germans will need to get over to the eastern front before the Russians start walking on Poland and they know that if the lose London they will never get it back, not with the US helping out.

So when I see Germany building an Aircraft Carrier, a Submarine and a Destroyer G1. I know exactly what to do.

[Alsch91]

Well if I see you spending like that I take London G2 on the cheap.

And I definitely don’t buy 10 transports G2.  Ha.

With an enormous land troop buy on both G2 and now G3, Russia is in enormous trouble.  You can’t pull back on London like that with no consequences against a smart Germany.

[special forces]

I too would stick to defending London as much as i can (lots of infantry), and make it as costly and risky as possible for Germany to come and get it.

And/or try to take out German fleet with remaining royal navy if i get the chance.

[Young Grasshopper]

Those are all good points, It won’t take much to take London and Germany may not need as many as 10 transports, but the fighters stay as long as possible making it seem a little harder to take (unless Germany knows what your up to). I have tried this type of retreat and liberate strategy twice against a very good opponent and he hasn’t figured out a way around it yet (at least not before he has to focus on Russia and give up London). The way it plays out is, Germany takes London G3, US & Britain move fleets into sea zone 103 turn 3, US troops liberate London US4 (sea zone 109 or 110), UK supports US transports with big ships UK4. UK get their capital and income back, US sails back to east USA for more land units, and British ships and planes destroy German fleet and clear the way for a France liberation or a Berlin occupation. Its not perfect, however, it is a viable option to holding and than loosing London with everything the UK owns.

[Zhukov_2011]

What is the consensus on stacking the UK fleet in SZ110 on UK2 to help defend Britain?

The UK fleet after G1 should comprise a BB, two CAs, two or three DDs, and 1 loaded CV. This is a strong force and stacking it in 110 prevents the German shore bombardments and forces them to devote some of the Luftwaffe towards the naval combat. I’ve done this in a couple of games and both times Germany was still able to successfully take Britain (both times with only one land unit, though they had to take hits on their air force to save that land unit).

But sacrificing the RN in SZ 110 means Italy gets to go wild in the Med and Africa. It also gives Germany some breathing room because the the Atlantic will be devoid of any Allied warships, and it will take two turns (more if the U.S. is going hard after Japan) for the U.S. to bring some pressure to bear on German-occupied England and the Continent.

What do others think? Would it be more efficient to husband the fleet (saving it for ops against the Italian fleet, or to provide escort for U.S. transports so the U.S.'s Atlantic builds can focus on transports and land units instead of warships) or stack it in SZ 110 if a G3 Sealion seems imminent?  Save the fleet to fight a weak Italy now, or sacrifice the fleet to fight a weakened Luftwaffe later?

[Young Grasshopper]

@mantlefan:

If Germany buys a ton of trns on G2 for me it’s no question to stack the channel. The only question becomes how many planes to land on the carrier.

The problem with stacking the channel is all the German aircraft ready to blow you out of the water.

[ghr2]

@Trisdin:

@mantlefan:

If Germany buys a ton of trns on G2 for me it’s no question to stack the channel. The only question becomes how many planes to land on the carrier.

The problem with stacking the channel is all the German aircraft ready to blow you out of the water.

Then germany will have suffered significant losses with his air, and wont be able to take london with out siginificant casualties or will have to stall till next turn meaning russia will be a juggernaught

[Young Grasshopper]

@ghr2:

@Trisdin:

@mantlefan:

If Germany buys a ton of trns on G2 for me it’s no question to stack the channel. The only question becomes how many planes to land on the carrier.

The problem with stacking the channel is all the German aircraft ready to blow you out of the water.

Then germany will have suffered significant losses with his air, and wont be able to take london with out siginificant casualties or will have to stall till next turn meaning russia will be a juggernaught

The goal of sea lion is to destroy everything British while taking over London. The time frame is three turns ( no more than four). Using everything in the German arsenal to accomplish this is perfectly acceptable. The IPCs earned from attacking French and neutral territories plus the UKs capital income will help take care of that “juggernaught” Russia.

[ghr2]

Since russia will have gained 37 ipcs every turn for 4 with no losses(assuming u play it safe and do a G4 sealion) russia should have enough guys in the frontier to smash numerous parts of eastern europe.  Either that, or germany will have no real airforce threat against russia (assuming a G3 sealion).  Either way, russia will have a solid defensive position if britain blocks sealion and germany decides to commit

[Young Grasshopper]

@ghr2:

Since russia will have gained 37 ipcs every turn for 4 with no losses(assuming u play it safe and do a G4 sealion) russia should have enough guys in the frontier to smash numerous parts of eastern europe.  Either that, or germany will have no real airforce threat against russia (assuming a G3 sealion).  Either way, russia will have a solid defensive position if britain blocks sealion and germany decides to commit

By that logic, you are against Germany attempting sea lion all together (for the record, I never wait til G4 for sea lion, I always get it done by G3)

[Young Grasshopper]

Yes, it’s a hairy battle for sure, but I find that waiting til G4 allows the UK more buildup time and I think it’s riskier if I wait.

[ghr2]

ya but G3 will be a pyrrhic victory