No, they have 1 fighter they can bring in. North Italy does not have an Airbase to scramble fighters for.
SZ 97: Aircraft Carrier, Cruiser, 2 Fighters against 1 Battleship, 1 Cruiesr (1 fighter maybe)
Carrier, Destroyer from SZ 98 to SZ 97
2 Fighters from England to SZ 97
(Fighters can land on the carrier after battle, the tactical bomber can land on Malta)
Odds without Cover Air Patrol: 84%
Odds with Cover Air Patrol: 40% win, 40% mutual destruction (both are fine for me.)
SZ 95: Tactical Cruiser, Destroyer, 2 Fighters vs 2 Destroyer, Submarine, Cruiser
Cruiesr from SZ 91 to SZ 95
Fighter from Malta to SZ 95
Fighter from Gibraltar to SZ 95
Cruiers from SZ 98 to SZ 95
Odds without Cover Air Patrol: 92%
Odds with Cover Air Patrol: 60%
Finally, move one guy (or two) from Egypt to Greece, to get the Neutral and reinforcements. (2 IPC for the territory, 4 infantry. 6 Infantry can be some nice extra dmg to the Germans.)
Now, knowing the odds, most players are going to put their S. Italy fighter out to protect the Battleship. But with 40% to destroy you and win, 40% to destroy you and be wiped out myself and only 20% you survive, I think it’s worth it. I’ll still have boats left from SZ 95 (or not, lots of Fighters on Malta to hit your new builds with) and now England owns all of North Africa.
Maybe you are not liking 40/40/20 odds of failure, but then, you have to assume Italy’s going to use their fighter, maybe they do not?
If you look, strictly, at what naval ships and planes that can get to the battle you get:
England: 1 Aircraft Carrier, 1 Destroyer, 2 Cruisers, 1 Tactical Bomber, 1 Transport and 4 Fighters
Italy: 2 Destroyers, 2 Cruisers, 1 Battleship, 1 Submarine, 3 Transports
Now, I am not including transports for casualties, I am only including them in respect of how much money in units will be lost.
If you cancel like units (as you did) you get:
England: Aircraft Carrier, 1 Tactical Bomber, 3 Fighters
Italy: Battleship, 1 Destroyer, 1 Submarine
The carrier can take two hits, the battleship can take two hits. So in that regards, they negate each other.
The extra punch England has is (3(3)+4)=13 (roughly 2 extra hits a round)
The extra punch Italy has is (4+2+1)=7 or roughly 1 extra hit a round.
I feel that either the testers were completely oblivious to the serious danger they put Italy in (essentially removing them from the game before Round 1) or they did so on purpose.