Our Japanese player attempted this strategy last night. He attempted to conceal his intentions by moving most of his fleet to Caroline on J1, and by remaining at peace until a massive attack on Hawaii and a minor assault on the Philippines on J2.
ANZAC was threatened by the Japanese Fleet in either Caroline or Hawaii, and therefore responded by taking Dutch New Guinea and building mostly infantry. The US was similarly threatened, and spent most of its IPC’s the first two turns on building a navy that could stand up to a potential Japanese attack and eventually re-take Hawaii. By the end of turn 2, the US had build a fleet that could stand up to what Japan had, at least in the eastern Pacific.
Unable to attack and needing to move on, the Japanese backed off of Hawaii and amphib’d Queensland. Later we learned this was the original plan. ANZAC, with its new reserve of infantry and original airforce, successfully counterattacked. With the money it had saved plus NO’s it bought 2 ftr’s and a tank to clear out the treasury. The U.S. fleet retook Hawaii, and enjoyed a slight edge in a defensive battle (3 carriers loaded with ftr’s; no tac’s) discouraging a Pearl Harbor II.
The Japanese player had more trns en route to Aus, but they could only reach Queens. Still, the situation was sort of precarious. ANZAC (luckily) got a hit in the defense of Queens, leaving four Japanese troops to occupy it. ANZAC countered with everything remaining, four fighters and a tank, and (luckily) took zero hits in killing the Japanese and retaking Queens.
The Japanese were now sort of screwed. Their next wave of trns was two turns from both Queens and NSW. The US saw this, and moved its fleet (with 2 loaded trans) to New Zealand. This fleet had been strong enough to deter attacks earlier, and now bombers and four subs were moved in range to kill any remnants of a Japanese counterattack on it.
At this point, if the US fleet had been stronger, the Japanese Navy would have been finished. It was not at a naval base, and was adjacent to the US Navy which was. This was not the case, but the Japanese fleet was forced to limp back troop-less to consolidate with additional ships. Japan had been forced to neglect China, India, and the DEI. UK had grabbed Sumatra safely, and reinforced an already-strong China.
The game was lost for the Allies in Russia to the Germans, but if that hadn’t happened, the attack on Australia would have been catastrphic for the Axis.
It’s also true that the Allies had some luck on their side, and with some different dice and purchases, the KAF could be successful. However, Japan will pay a steep price elsewhere.