Russian Openings and AA Online

[theskeindhu]

Re: All the Russian Openings for Beginners

I took a hiatus and recently returned. I can’t win at all as the Allies. The most recent game I went conservative and stacked everything first turn on West Russia. Germany ignored the UK fleet and brought everything in to West Russia. They barely won and took Moscow round 3. I’m not a statistics guy, but is this a high probability attack? I lost 3 infantry opening attack, both AA Guns and every man was stacked West Russia.

[Imperious Leader]

If you take West Russia and Ukraine, its impossible for him to take WR. Just buy 3 and 4 and both planes on UKR with 3 tanks and your first turn is as good as can be.

I have seen a few people send the planes against the German fleet, which in Gencon makes for a lost German fighter. This is turn may cost Russia a lost fighter ( one 3 vs. two threes) but you do get the benefit of killing the transport

[theskeindhu]

@Imperious-Leader Ukraine is a suicide mission with the current dice.

[Imperious Leader]

you mean stabilized dice? Can you explain this comment?

[theskeindhu]

@Imperious-Leader Maybe I’m just unlucky, but in MP I’m losing too much in the first roll, too consistently to make it worth it. Basically puts the entire game on that one move, that’s not my style.

[aardvarkpepper]

@Imperious-Leader said in All the Russian openings: For Begginers:

If you take West Russia and Ukraine, its impossible for him to take WR. Just buy 3 and 4 and both planes on UKR with 3 tanks and your first turn is as good as can be.

I have seen a few people send the planes against the German fleet, which in Gencon makes for a lost German fighter. This is turn may cost Russia a lost fighter ( one 3 vs. two threes) but you do get the benefit of killing the transport

Isn’t the context USSR’s first turn? So if you’re talking about USSR sending its fighters against Germany’s Baltic fleet (is that what you mean?) then how, exactly, does that result in a lost German fighter under GenCon rules and setup? (edit - I’m not questioning that a German fighter is lost, I’m just saying I don’t see how exactly R1 hitting Baltic fleet results in that happening.)

As to “may” cost Russia a fighter, I’d say “almost certainly” right? Considering you’re advocating USSR opening against West Russia/Ukraine, and not the (admittedly risky opening that I disagree with) West Russia strafe opening. Under those conditions after an attack on Baltic sea zone (if you are using both USSR fighters), a USSR fighter will have to land in Karelia where the expectation is Germany destroys it.

@theskeindhu said in All the Russian openings: For Begginers:

@Imperious-Leader Ukraine is a suicide mission with the current dice.

This implies you’re playing TripleA or 1942 Online, but along with the post from a few days ago doesn’t give enough information. If you’re playing 1942 Online there’s changes to the rules, if you’re playing TripleA you might be using the LHTR setup or not, you might be using a bid or not. Whichever it is makes a difference.

(And if it IS 1942 Online there’s a separate forum for that.)

https://www.axisandallies.org/forums/category/68/axis-allies-1942-online

==

As an aside, I ran the numbers on all-in against Ukraine as part of a post-game writeup. Excerpt:

==

All-in at Ukr (W Rus)

http://calc.axisandallies.org/?mustland=0&abortratio=0&saveunits=0&strafeunits=0&aInf=9&aArt=2&aArm=1&aFig=&aBom=&aTra=&aSub=&aDes=&aCru=&aCar=&aBat=&adBat=&dInf=3&dArt=1&dArm=1&dFig=&dBom=&dTra=&dSub=&dDes=&dCru=&dCar=&dBat=&ddBat=&ool_att=Bat-Inf-Art-AArt-Arm-Sub-SSub-Des-Fig-JFig-Cru-Bom-HBom-Car-dBat-Tra&ool_def=Bat-Inf-Art-AArt-Arm-Bom-HBom-Sub-SSub-Des-Car-Cru-Fig-JFig-dBat-Tra&battle=Run&rounds=&reps=10000&luck=pure&ruleset=AA1942&territory=&round=1&pbem=

One less tank/fighter at Ukr (W Rus)

http://calc.axisandallies.org/?mustland=0&abortratio=0&saveunits=0&strafeunits=0&aInf=9&aArt=2&aArm=2&aFig=&aBom=&aTra=&aSub=&aDes=&aCru=&aCar=&aBat=&adBat=&dInf=3&dArt=1&dArm=1&dFig=&dBom=&dTra=&dSub=&dDes=&dCru=&dCar=&dBat=&ddBat=&ool_att=Bat-Inf-Art-AArt-Arm-Sub-SSub-Des-Fig-JFig-Cru-Bom-HBom-Car-dBat-Tra&ool_def=Bat-Inf-Art-AArt-Arm-Bom-HBom-Sub-SSub-Des-Car-Cru-Fig-JFig-dBat-Tra&battle=Run&rounds=&reps=10000&luck=pure&ruleset=AA1942&territory=&round=1&pbem=

Germany can hit W Rus on G1 with 3 inf 2 tnk 3 fighter (assuming Russia succeeds in capturing Ukr which it may not, if it Ukr remains controlled by Germany, Germany can hit with another tank from Bulgaria-Romania and whatever survived from Ukr. Figure Russia can move in AA guns. If you figure six units surviving at W Rus as “danger”, it’s about 6% “danger” if all-in at Ukr, but 1% “danger” with one less tank/fighter (leaving one more for W Rus).

Running the numbers - safer than I thought, but still. Why risk the game on 6% if you can take a 1% instead? There are gains - a better safety margin at Ukraine, and the (uncalculated for me) possibility of R1 strafing Ukraine setting up a R2 strafe threat against a G1 hold attempt of Karelia. But against a weak meta I don’t want to hand an opponent a chance at a simple winning line of play (G1 West Russia counter into tank dash).

==

Far as I’ve read, the 1942 Online meta dogmatically supports all-in against Ukraine (I expect Imperious Leader’s support of all-in is a conclusion he arrived at independently). I don’t say it’s wrong. I think it MIGHT be debatable, I want to see the numbers on it, in more detailed projections than the one I wrote up above.

But as Hobbes wrote some years ago on these forums, there is a chance of G1 breaking West Russia. I don’t know the particulars of what Hobbes was thinking, but I imagine perhaps it goes something like G1 break of West Russia means USSR can never take and hold West Russia so UK/US can never land fighters there, so UK/US have to go via carrier or Iceland - anyways the Allied chain is a little inefficient and though there’s a dice game with the Axis, I think Axis are favored in that position to win a rush game.

@theskeindhu said in All the Russian openings: For Begginers:

I took a hiatus and recently returned. I can’t win at all as the Allies. The most recent game I went conservative and stacked everything first turn on West Russia. Germany ignored the UK fleet and brought everything in to West Russia. They barely won and took Moscow round 3. I’m not a statistics guy, but is this a high probability attack? I lost 3 infantry opening attack, both AA Guns and every man was stacked West Russia.

. . . which apparently happened.

@theskeindhu said in All the Russian openings: For Begginers:

@Imperious-Leader Ukraine is a suicide mission with the current dice.

That implies you’re using TripleA or 1942 Online (if it were live you could probably just switch out the dice). If it’s 1942 Online best use the appropriate forum.

https://www.axisandallies.org/forums/category/68/axis-allies-1942-online

LHTR setup is different to non-LHTR setup, then there’s also the question of pre-placed bids. If you’re on TripleA and observing rules (and clarifications) as written, and implementing GenCon’s preplaced bid, that means things like live defender decisions, the game probably NOT being subject to GenCon adjudication. You could say your post is still generally relevant to 1942 Second Edition with some house rules - but if anyone’s going to give good advice, they’ll need to know what you’re doing.

It makes a BIG difference if you’ve got three USSR units bid in Europe if you’re worried about the G1 counter, see? Or even if you’re going UK sub at India, you’re changing the percentages against the Japanese East Indies fleet in a big way. These are not things that should just be ignored, you need to say what’s happening.

As to 1942 Online, well, it’s just a different animal. Defensive profiles, non-use of allied carriers, these are mechanical differences to how the board game works, plus there’s no bid there. So that makes a difference.

[theskeindhu]

@aardvarkpepper Yea, sorry, should have clarified, I was referring to Larry Harris Gen 3, Axis and Allies online. I’ve been stacking West Russia turn 1 with everything minus fighters which obviously can’t land there first turn. 1 to Egypt, 1 to Szechwan along with one infantry. This has been my tactic and the most consistently successful, since I got tired of gambling a strafe on Ukraine and getting major League screwed enough times, including losing a fighter first round that I decided it wasn’t worth placing the entire fate of the game on round 1 luck. Germany has about 20% success rate rushing a West Russia against my stack R1. This, IMO is because AA isn’t working as intended, a known glitch. The odds improve if I have 6 dice rolling for 1’s and actually take out aircraft.

[aardvarkpepper]

@theskeindhu said in All the Russian openings: For Begginers:

@aardvarkpepper Yea, sorry, should have clarified, I was referring to Larry Harris Gen 3, Axis and Allies online.

Ah. Then I’ll post a response when you put a thread up on the 1942 Online forum.

https://www.axisandallies.org/forums/category/68/axis-allies-1942-online

[theskeindhu]

@aardvarkpepper Is this forum so active that you can be a dick? This is the most comprehensive thread on Russian openings, which is specifically my discussion, concerning stacking West Russia, enjoy your elitist attitude.

[Imperious Leader]

Thats would be a lost Russian fighter, not German…typo ( two threes vs. one three) The benefit to the allies is this messes with the German fodder-- in their attack against the UK fleet. They can bring only two threes usually resulting in a lost fighter or both fighters, or even a total defeat in that attack .

“Far as I’ve read, the 1942 Online meta dogmatically supports all-in against Ukraine (I expect Imperious Leader’s support of all-in is a conclusion he arrived at independently). I don’t say it’s wrong. I think it MIGHT be debatable, I want to see the numbers on it, in more detailed projections than the one I wrote up above.”

I you may recall i was against the total destruction and loss of those 3 Russian tanks (among other units) to kill the German bomber and fighter, etc. The loss to the Reich is to deny her future attacks upon the British and Russians over the next 3-4 turns before she can make good for this loss and replace them. Planes allow a nation to attack areas without risking more expensive units and also for Germany to fight Allied fleets in conjunction with submarines. Germany needs this efficiency and the exchange is worth while for the Allied cause.

“Isn’t the context USSR’s first turn? So if you’re talking about USSR sending its fighters against Germany’s Baltic fleet (is that what you mean?) then how, exactly, does that result in a lost German fighter under GenCon rules and setup? (edit - I’m not questioning that a German fighter is lost, I’m just saying I don’t see how exactly R1 hitting Baltic fleet results in that happening.)”

@aardvarkpepper

I don’t advocate this attack risking Russian fighters, I’m just saying i see it happen more than a few times recently, like a new gambit to kill the German transport and weaken the German attacks vs. UK on G1. Losing the fighter is a near catastrophic weakening of future Soviet attacks and defense.

[aardvarkpepper]

@theskeindhu said in All the Russian openings: For Begginers:

@aardvarkpepper Is this forum so active that you can be a dick? This is the most comprehensive thread on Russian openings, which is specifically my discussion, concerning stacking West Russia, enjoy your elitist attitude.

I reported your post, not for flaming, but for being off-topic.

The thread was started by Black Elk, specific to 1942 Second Edition. 1942 Online’s mechanics are different in many ways.

@theskeindhu said in All the Russian openings: For Begginers:

@aardvarkpepper Yea, sorry, should have clarified, I was referring to Larry Harris Gen 3, Axis and Allies online. I’ve been stacking West Russia turn 1 with everything minus fighters which obviously can’t land there first turn. 1 to Egypt, 1 to Szechwan along with one infantry. This has been my tactic and the most consistently successful, since I got tired of gambling a strafe on Ukraine and getting major League screwed enough times, including losing a fighter first round that I decided it wasn’t worth placing the entire fate of the game on round 1 luck. Germany has about 20% success rate rushing a West Russia against my stack R1. This, IMO is because AA isn’t working as intended, a known glitch. The odds improve if I have 6 dice rolling for 1’s and actually take out aircraft.

@theskeindhu said in All the Russian openings: For Begginers:

I took a hiatus and recently returned. I can’t win at all as the Allies. The most recent game I went conservative and stacked everything first turn on West Russia. Germany ignored the UK fleet and brought everything in to West Russia. They barely won and took Moscow round 3. I’m not a statistics guy, but is this a high probability attack? I lost 3 infantry opening attack, both AA Guns and every man was stacked West Russia.

I’d say bleeding off units towards China and Africa isn’t “standard”, but your identified issue is the G1 counter. You say you have respect for this thread, all right. But then you ought to have paid close attention to Black Elk’s notes on the W Rus only open. I quote

“Unfortunately for the Russians there is a slight problem, and that’s the 3 infantry, 1 artillery and 1 tank unit that Germany has occupying W. Russia at the beginning of the game. Four German fodder units that hit at a 2, and a tank that hits at a 3. It might not seem like much, but if the Russians have a poor opening salvo, or the Germans put up a stiff resistance, or if the combat drags out too long, this can easily bleed down the Russian forces to a point where the Allies are completely screwed right at the outset. For some people, a dicey opening like that can really sour the experience. Some might quit and surrender then and there. Some might request a reroll, or might ask for a bid to compensate for this possibility (A bid, for those who are unfamiliar, is a kind of balancing tool for A&A, that awards extra opening IPCs/Units to the underdog). Still others might look to change the game with house rules, or find different ways of rolling the dice altogether, which is basically the Low Luck approach I mentioned in the earlier post. All this to get around the issue of being totally diced at the outset . There are similar dicey battles in the first round for 1942.2 but few quite so critical as this opening battle for W. Russia”

I might disagree with Black Elk on points, but he did nail this one. You get bad dice on a W Rus only open, your eggs are all in one basket. If you eat a counter, you’re toast.

Loads of players use TripleA, which allows for preplaced bids, preplaced bids are standard for live games in my experience, and GenCon allows preplaced bids, I expect that’s just a normal part of the conversation. So naturally I’d start a 1942 Second Edition address by discussing the precise bid, perhaps around 11 to Allies with what I consider the usual practice of maximum one unit per territory/sea zone where a power already controls units, the merits of stabilizing a W Rus only open with USSR bid units in Europe versus stabilizing Africa with a UK bid, or changing the numbers on the UK1 attack against Japan’s East Indies fleet.

But 1942 Online doesn’t address any of those scenarios as there’s no bid. So I would either omit those topics (which wouldn’t be appropriate to a 1942 Second Edition board). Or I could derail the thread to start talking about 1942 Online specific stuff, which would be out of context and confusing to readers that were thinking about 1942 Second Edition. It really just wouldn’t be right.

Then too, think about your response. You write you’re experiencing issues, but you’re not departing from anything Black Elk wrote, nor are you directly addressing points he made. It’s reasonable that threads depart some from the main topic, but arguably you just fundamentally aren’t satisfied with the topic of this thread, which is Russian openings for beginners. If you were satisfied you’d live or die by the simple openings Black Elk described and that would be the end of it. But you want to dig deeper, for 1942 Online specifically.

[aardvarkpepper]

@Imperious-Leader

Re: R1 two-fighter attack on Baltic “The benefit to the allies is this messes with the German fodder-- in their attack against the UK fleet. They can bring only two threes usually resulting in a lost fighter or both fighters, or even a total defeat in that attack .”

I noted you did write you considered loss of a USSR fighter “near catastrophic” and didn’t advocate the attack. So I only mention this as part of discussion.

Let’s assume LHTR setup, which if anything only plays into the assertion that Germany sustains air losses in its G1 attack on the UK battleship+ fleet. (Which is pretty axiomatic, if you chop a German cruiser off the attack there’s clearly just no way Germany’s numbers will be as good.) But even then, aacalc indicates a pretty healthy chance both German fighters survive. Note I think “91%” or whatever comes from rounding and addition, it’s probably more like . . . 73% . . . ish?

http://calc.axisandallies.org/?mustland=0&abortratio=0&saveunits=0&strafeunits=0&aInf=&aArt=&aArm=&aFig=2&aBom=&aTra=&aSub=3&aDes=&aCru=&aCar=&aBat=&adBat=&dInf=&dArt=&dArm=&dFig=&dBom=&dTra=&dSub=1&dDes=1&dCru=&dCar=&dBat=1&ddBat=&ool_att=Bat-Inf-Art-AArt-Arm-Sub-SSub-Des-Fig-JFig-Cru-Bom-HBom-Car-dBat-Tra&ool_def=Bat-Inf-Art-AArt-Arm-Bom-HBom-Sub-SSub-Des-Car-Cru-Fig-JFig-dBat-Tra&battle=Run&rounds=&reps=10000&luck=pure&ruleset=AA1942&territory=&round=1&pbem=

I’ll admit it isn’t rosy for Germany. UK destroyer and transport off East Canada surviving, US destroyer and transports off East US surviving, those are not huge obvious issues, but they do mess with Germany’s options and accelerate the Allied timelines in unpleasant ways. But there is a decent chance Germany’s air escapes unscathed.

. . . granted, less than if Germany went all out and started with a cruiser. But USSR’s down a fighter for sure, weigh that against a probable German naval win anyways and I don’t know that R1 2 fighters vs Baltic is that great a line - considering the percentages of failure of 2 fighters versus cruiser in the first place, possibilities of G1 counter exacerbated by USSR fighter non-use in other attacks, buncha fun stuff.

“I you may recall i was against the total destruction and loss of those 3 Russian tanks (among other units) to kill the German bomber and fighter, etc. The loss to the Reich is to deny her future attacks upon the British and Russians over the next 3-4 turns before she can make good for this loss and replace them.”

Er . . . wait a minute. You’re “against” the destruction of 3 Russian tanks so you’re saying go West Russia/Ukr with all-in at Ukr, and to retreat the USSR tanks to Caucasus? But then you say the loss to Axis is to deny future attacks over the next few turns . . . implying Russia presses the attack (then losing those tanks to Germany’s counter)? Which is it?

I’m totally comfortable if you say neither. After all, I think if USSR has fantastic strafe dice then USSR retreats from Ukraine, and if USSR has not-great dice then USSR presses the attack and trades its tanks for German air. That’s totally reasonable IMO. But I think it bears clarification.

Long as we’re talking about oddball opens, a fun game is R1 W Rus strafe into retreating to Karelia. That’s one way you can try a R1 Baltic attack yet leave the door open on a possibility of keeping both USSR fighters. But I will mention I ran the numbers and projections and I think it’s not a solid line for USSR at all. Bears mentioning in this context though.

[theskeindhu]

@Imperious-Leader I’m referring to going all in, Axis and Allies online, Russia turn 1 with 20 Units all to West Russia. Then sending the fighters on defensive missions to return R2. The unstoppable counter to this is Germany going all in West Russia T1. Should they have good fortune, they can take Russia out of the game, I’ve seen it go both ways, usually ends horribly for Germany, but when lucky it ends the game.

[Imperious Leader]

@aardvarkpepper said in All the Russian openings: For Begginers:

Er . . . wait a minute. You’re “against” the destruction of 3 Russian tanks so you’re saying go West Russia/Ukr with all-in at Ukr, and to retreat the USSR tanks to Caucasus? But then you say the loss to Axis is to deny future attacks over the next few turns . . . implying Russia presses the attack (then losing those tanks to Germany’s counter)? Which is it?

I was against that, but as far as the overall Allied effort–its “taking one for the team”, which in the long run creates an imbalance in a German dynamic effort. The loss of a 6 mover and 4 mover among other units hurts Germany more than the Allies as a whole. German military reach is decidedly in decline from the get go. The G1 battles are gonna suffer in the %. Besides Germany still has to kill the Russian tanks, meaning even more loses. My stack in West Russia can have easier pick off targets on R2. I will buy 1-2 tanks each turn starting on R2

[Imperious Leader]

@theskeindhu said in All the Russian openings: For Begginers:

@Imperious-Leader I’m referring to going all in, Axis and Allies online, Russia turn 1 with 20 Units all to West Russia. Then sending the fighters on defensive missions to return R2. The unstoppable counter to this is Germany going all in West Russia T1. Should they have good fortune, they can take Russia out of the game, I’ve seen it go both ways, usually ends horribly for Germany, but when lucky it ends the game.

Ok. I’m not interested in giving Germany that “all- in” option by leaving alone all her stacks except the attack @ West Russia. I want to reduce her options when i play Russia. The dice can go bad for either side

[theskeindhu]

@Imperious-Leader and I’m interested in doing the same with a gambit into Ukraine which at best leaves irreplaceable tanks exposed. West Russia doom stack is the best opening move I’ve found, my initial post was based on frustration from an anomaly, Germany got extremely lucky. Since then the move has paid off even against an all in German push.

[Quintin]

Hi!

I was ranked #1 as allies last season and I always went all in on ukraine and sent the rest to w-russia (9 to ukr, 12 to w-russia). Ukr works out to about 80% odds you capture it, 90% odds you clear it. As long as you dont get a bottom 10% result you’re good. I always capture it too, since this trades off G units which is good in a KGF. Buy is 4 inf 2 tanks, 4 inf to cauc 2 tanks to Russia. This deadzones karelia G1 if 5 or more inf survives in w-russia. Meaning you’ll sometimes get to start R2 with no german stack threatening w-russia and can start aggressively trading. 1 Russian inf to szechwan, all far east inf goes west except 1 in bury.

W-Russia only is a bit weaker since it allows G to wipe egypt G1(which would stop UK killing the BB) and makes a UK1 fleet buy unlikely. I’ve seen people reach platinum with it though and its for sure better than a bottom 10% result in ukr.

[Kakarrot1138]

I think you pretty much have to hit Ukraine at the higher skill levels. If that bomber survives it’s bad news. You just have to accept that a fraction of the time, you’re gonna get screwed by rng. I usually only buy 1 tank and 6 inf but 2 tanks is probably safer in case you lose a lot in West and then don’t quite have enough to dead zone karelia.

[aardvarkpepper]

@Quintin said in Russian Openings and AA Online:

. . .1 Russian inf to szechwan, all far east inf goes west except 1 in bury.

W-Russia only is a bit weaker since it allows G to wipe egypt G1(which would stop UK killing the BB) and makes a UK1 fleet buy unlikely. I’ve seen people reach platinum with it though and its for sure better than a bottom 10% result in ukr.

1. USSR infantry to Szechwan provided certain results at Ukraine. Right?

2. You’re saying USSR 1 infantry at Buryatia assuming Japan 1 will go after US’s Hawaiian Islands fleet. Right?

3. Wiping Egypt doesn’t really stop UK from killing Germany’s Med fleet. There’s a bunch of points of failure. First, something like 2% UK destroyer lives. If that goes off all right (which it probably will) then it’s about 18% to fail at Egypt. If Egypt doesn’t capture Egypt (not just wipe Egypt’s units), UK can send its India fleet through to hit the German Med fleet. So actually the order of loss at Egypt should be bomber before final tank, which changes failure percentage from 18% to about 22%.

http://calc.axisandallies.org/?mustland=0&abortratio=0&saveunits=0&strafeunits=0&aInf=2&aArt=&aArm=1&aFig=1&aBom=1&aTra=&aSub=&aDes=&aCru=&aCar=&aBat=&adBat=&dInf=1&dArt=1&dArm=1&dFig=1&dBom=&dTra=&dSub=&dDes=&dCru=&dCar=&dBat=&ddBat=&ool_att=Bat-Inf-Art-AArt-Fig-Sub-SSub-Des-JFig-Cru-Bom-Arm-HBom-Car-dBat-Tra&ool_def=Bat-Inf-Art-AArt-Arm-Bom-HBom-Sub-SSub-Des-Car-Cru-Fig-JFig-dBat-Tra&battle=Run&rounds=&reps=10000&luck=pure&ruleset=AA1942&territory=&round=1&pbem=

(I used a fighter in place of a second tank and did attacker OOL fighter-bomber-tank).

Then after that there’s a 60% chance for UK fighter and bomber to clear the German battleship. But it’s not just 60% for a “win” that’s a tolerable outcome. A “loss” is also okay so long as the German battleship dies, and that’s another 20% or so. If USSR has a fighter at Caucasus that can pick up an undefended German transport before Germany’s second turn, it’s not great for Allies, but the position’s tolerable, and it comes out to about 19% “failure” for overall (not “40%”).

You might respond with “so you want to walk into a low dice count high variance high stakes battle with UK? Slightly favored for Allies but be my guest, I’ll take those odds.”

But that leads into my point. You’ve written elsewhere that you have a great record, #1 player, 19-0 was it? Maybe I don’t have those numbers exactly right, but it IS something impressive like that right? All right then. But what do you think your win percentage would be if you played against yourself? Let’s say you DO normally outclass your opponents. But what if you don’t?

So if you say “you want to play dice games with a UK1 counter to G1 Egypt attack with bomber, let’s do this, let’s roll these dice!” sure I agree, you have UK air wiped out and Germany battleship surviving, maybe 19%, that’s a big risk, UK doesn’t have a lot of good outcomes if it fails.

But then you look at Egypt and its 2% followed by 22%. If Germany fails at Egypt, that’s not good either. So when you do your steely-eyed gaze and stare your opponent down and say “try me with UK1 air counter against G1 bomber plus against Egypt lol”, instead of backing down, they stare you right back in the eye and pull out a bigger whatever it is, 2% followed by 22% more than 19% anyways, then they say it’s your move. Which is an apt analogy I think; Germany does go before UK and the odds at Egypt are a little worse. You could change it to 18% instead of 22% with different assumptions, but even that’s not strictly superior, and it’s still low dice count high variance.

I’m not saying it’s all clean and nice for the Allies either, like what exactly happens with Japan’s Kwangtung destroyer/transport?

But I am saying “which would stop UK killing the BB” might be overstating the case. Maybe it doesn’t play out that cleanly.

As I remarked to the OP in another thread, I’m perfectly willing to accept the assumption that the meta isn’t strong. After all, I am assuming the opponent is strong. And if you have multiple players pulling lopsided records, if we accept those records at face values, then there must be a skill mismatch right? So if anything it’s my assumption that would be incorrect.

But for purposes of discussion, are we assuming that opponent are going to be missing the right plays?

==

Anyways all that fun detail stuff aside, what I REALLY wanted to ask about. Okay so R1 opens W Rus only, G1 hits Egypt with bomber, let’s not worry about counters whatever, let’s just do that. But then you wrote this stops UK1 fleet buy. Why is that, exactly?

I’m not going to say it doesn’t happen. I can construct loads of scenarios, sure, but I’m interested in how you see it happening. Or if you see UK doing different things in different scenarios, sure, but then what are those scenarios and what are UK’s actions in each one, and why does it not build UK1 fleet in any of those scenarios?

[Kakarrot1138]

If the Egypt fighter is killed G1 (and G isn’t unlucky enough to not actually take Egypt), then I really don’t think trying to kill the BB UK1 is sound. Losing that battle is just catastrophic, and if you win, there’s a decent chance that you’ll still lose both planes, in which case I’m happy if I’m axis. Since you’re assuming that the allies player is strong, it’s unlikely they’ll go for it. Strong players tend not to make desperate moves like that and instead patiently rely on their skill to carry them through rough opening rounds.

As far as no UK1 fleet buy, I think it should be self-explanatory. G has an extra fighter and bomber to target sz7 that it normally wouldn’t.