@Cmdr:
Africa belongs to the Axis. All they have to do is get average dice with Germany in Egypt on Round 1 and hit it hard. That means the English do NOT liberate Egypt. (3 Infantry, 3 Armor, 2 Fighters, Bomber vs Infantry, Armor, Fighter in ADS.) Without Egypt liberated, Germany only really has to hold Algeria, so move the fleet over and build up there. Meanwhile, the three tanks can now blitz all of Africa on Germany 2 except S. Africa.
(Assumes bid of Infantry/Armor to Libya and an Infantry/Armor from S. Europe to Egypt. Reduce count by 1 fighter if Russia succeeds in killing a fighter in Ukraine.)
Africa is not free for Germany.
They have/are investing units to get africa. There is also the opportunity cost for those free blitzing tanks you mention. They COULD be pressuring Russia. There’s money in the Eastern European theatre too.
Optimally, Africa should be won by either the Axis or the Allies with the least amount of investment. That is TRULY WINNING Africa. If Germany needs to pour units into Africa to maintain their gains, their return is greatly minimized. It’s not so bad that you shouldn’t do that, but it IS sub optimal.
Now IF UK has made such a strong investment of an IC (15) and 2 tanks (10) in two turns and has forgone India to Japan … that’s a lot of investment in Africa. As an Axis player, I just do not think it’s worth it (unless I could grab the SAF IC, even then… doubtful it’s worth the cost/distraction)
Germany/Japan CAN win the war without Africa.