Discussion of R1, what do you recommend

[dinosaur]

I have been studying this game off and on for about a year as my son’s interest waxes and wanes.  I played RISK way back and this is sort of a RISK on 'ROIDS, if you get my meaning.  Because the starting positions are fairly fixed (except for bid variations), I am trying to come up with a fairly solid strategy for the Allies for my son so I can play the Axis and see how it goes.  Against my son, I’m trying to play no-bid axis, technologies but no national advantages.  However, for this discussion, I’d like to discuss the opening turns without technology in the game.

My thoughts for the opening turn for Russia are as follows …
Buy 5 inf, 1 arty, 1 tank

Atk Belorussia (3 inf)
… 3 inf, 1 ftr from Karelia & 1 ftr from Russia (3 inf, 2 ftr) <-total

Atk West Russia (3 inf, 1 arty, 1 tank)
… 2 inf, 1 tank from Archangel, 3 inf, 1 arty, 2 tank from Russia, 2 inf, 1 arty, 1 tank from Caucasus (7 inf, 2 arty, 4 tank)

I’ll post the predicted results after I have computed them.  But for now, assume the Germans get a little luck and:
Russians take Belorussia with 1 inf and 2 ftr remaining
Russians take West Russia with 4 inf, 2 arty and 4 tank remaining

The Russians NC move
the sub to SZ 2
1 inf from Archangel to Karelia SSR
2 inf from Kazakh SSR to Persia
2 inf from Novosibirsk to Sinkiang
2 inf from Evenki NO to Novosibirsk
2 inf from Yakut SSR to Novosibirsk
2 inf from Soviet Far East to Buryatia SSR
2 ftr from Belorussia to Caucasus

Placement 2 inf, 1 arty, 1 tank on Caucasus (3 inf, 1 arty, 1 tank, 2 ftr)
Placement 3 inf on Russia (3 inf)
Karelia SSR (1 inf)
Archangel (mt)
Belorussia (1 inf)
West Russia (7 inf, 2 arty, 4 tank)
others as above

Collect 28 IPC (28 IPC)

Germany goes to bat.

In this position, I think Germany would consolidate most of its power on East Europe and only risk a small group on Belorussia.  I guess Germany could take Karelia using the troops on Norway and possibly help from Germany by using the transport.  Of course, the UK Battleship gets killed in the Med and the Germans take Egypt while destroying the destroyer in the Med.  The Germans are probably bidding and receiving an extra tank in Africa.  The Germans are likely to buy an aircraft carrier and a stack of infantry.  (you have to consider the response to understand the value of a previous turn)

Also, what problems will the Japanese make for Russia if they decide to go with 4 inf on Buryatia and nobody on Soviet Far East?

Let me know if you see a stronger opening move for Russia.  I joined this board because you folks appear to have the most active group for this sort of discussion.  Thanks.  -  dinosaur

[Mazer Rackham]

Hey Dino.

Over on the Caspian Sub website there are five 1-page strategy guides, one for each power.  It’s a decent place for newbies to start.

Check the Files section under Strategy Guides.

http://games.groups.yahoo.com/group/Caspian_Sub/

Peace

[Jennifer]

It’s a pretty strong Russian open, in my opinion

[trihero]

I don’t see any flaws with that opening. My personal preference now is 4 inf 3 art; there’s more offensive punch to that and more expendibility than 5 inf 1 art 1 arm, although the arm is more flexible.

Some alternate things to think about is W. Russia + Ukraine attack, and also the Russian Triple attack. Both of those are riskier, but more rewarding as well if you do them correctly.

As for Japan stacking 4 inf to Buryatia, there’s nothing you can really do about it. I kind of like that opening now because you can push straight to Novo/Kazakh/Evenki without any delay, which is worth more IPCs than island hunting is plus it’s getting rid of Russian IPCs, which is your main target.

If you’re Russia, just keep running away and don’t let the Japanese attack a stack of inf with inf + fighters; let them advance then you trade the territory if you can.

[Jennifer]

I still like the 5 inf, art, arm purchase.  If all you do is attack W. Russia can you easily have 7 Infantry, 2 Artillery, 2 Armor in W. Russia, 7 Infantry, 2 Armor,  2 Fighters, AA Gun in Caucasus and 7 Infantry, AA Gun in Russia

[Aretaku]

I recently played a game where a three attack Russian turn consisting of Ukraine, W. Russia, and Eastern Europe actually wound up working well.

Granted the dice were in my favor, and I lost a lot of offensive pieces on Germany’s subsequent turn, but my attack and Germany’s counter wound up costing Germany more offensive pieces than he could really afford to lose. Combined with a KGF focus, it wound up doing much to help the Allies win that game.

If you want to play it more conservatively, then the OP has a solid R1 posted already.  :-)

[Jennifer]

Do you know a player named Ranyn1te?  Hehe, it’s one of his trademark openings.

High risk, very high reward!

[dinosaur]

I would be interested in seeing alternatives to this R1, but to evaluate them I would need specific unit counts and things.  One reason for my choice of this move is to protect Russia’s offensive pieces.  I also viewed the videos once, and he made the point very clearly that Russia could not afford to lose his heavy pieces.  This is why I have all Russias tanks stacked with so much (comparatively) infantry.  In another variation, I used to fly Russia’s fighters back to Russia, but that was before I started considering something other than 8 inf as Russia’s first buy.  I believe I noted this play used in another forum game here so I am not thinking I have “discovered” anything.  I am still working on the results table and hope to get those numbers here soon.  Thanks.  -  dinosaur

[Jennifer]

Alternative 1:

3 Infantry from Karelia to W. Russia
3 Infantry, Armor from Archangelsk to W. Russia
3 Infantry, Artillery, Armor from Russia to W. Russia

Fighter from Karelia to Ukraine
Armor, Fighter from Russia to Ukraine
3 Infantry, Artillery, Armor from Caucasus to Ukraine

---

Alternative 2:

3 Infantry from Karelia to W. Russia
3 Infantry, Armor from Archangelsk to W. Russia
3 Infantry, Artillery from Russia to W. Russia

Fighter from Karelia to Ukraine
2 Armor, Fighter from Russia to Ukraine
3 Infantry, Artillery, Armor from Caucasus to Ukraine

(*Only difference is more armor goes to Ukraine, less to W. Russia)

---

Alternative 3:

3 Infantry, Fighter from Karelia to W. Russia
3 Infantry, Armor from Archangelsk to W. Russia
3 Infantry, Artillery, 2 Armor, Fighter from Russia to W. Russia

*Stack Caucasus against German attack with NCM and Mobilization of New Forces, landing fighters there as well.

---

Alternative 4:

3 Infantry, Fighter from Karelia to Norway
Armor from Archangelsk to Norway

3 Infantry from Archangelsk to W. Russia
3 Infantry, Artillery, Armor, Fighter from Russia to W. Russia
Artillery from Caucasus to W. Russia

---

Alternative 5:

3 Infantry, Fighter from Karelia to Belorussia
Fighter from Russia to Belorussia

3 Infantry, Armor from Archangelsk to W. Russia
3 Infantry, Artillery, 2 Armor from Russia to W. Russia
3 Infantry, Artillery, Armor from Caucasus to W. Russia

---

Alternative 6: (I call this the Hail Mary)

3 Infantry, Fighter from Karelia to E. Europe
Armor from Archangelsk to E. Europe

3 Infantry from Archangelsk to W. Russia
3 Infantry, Artillery, Armor from Russia to W. Russia

3 Infantry, Artillery, Armor from Caucasus to Ukraine
Armor, Fighter from Russia to Ukraine

---

---

Not saying I approve of any of those openings, nor that I disapprove of any of those openings, but they exist.  As always, the dice can go well or poor for you in any of the above.  Some are more devastating then others, but some are also much higher risk then others.

[Lucifer]

My R1 combat will be either all that can reach Ukr, sometimes minus one tank, and everything else to Wru.
Another option is all units to Wru. Cauc should only have few units to secure Cauc from G1. I would retreat Bury totally, or
place 6 inf + UK ftr in Bury. Sometimes I leave 1 inf behind, but it’s usually better to retreat if you can’t hold a TT.
Usually is a smart move to pull the AA gun from Russia to Wru.
R1 I usually buy 4 inf 3 art, 5-1-1. or 3 inf 3 tanks. The triple attack can be very risky, if it fails, this means that a good G player
will take Moscow rnd 4-5. If it succeds and G have some bad dice, then you probably win the whole game.

[Crazy Ivan]

:roll:
I agree with Lucifer and others on the 3 attack strategy. I would only try it against new players, or if I am wanting to play a short game, win or lose. :-P
For me, I stick with a heavy attack on the Ukraine, (everything that can reach it) and West Russia. Land my planes in the Caucuses with the two Infantry from Kasakh SSR and place 3 of my 5 Infantry builds and my Artillary build there, with the other 2 Infantry and my tank in Russia. I abandon Karilia completely, It is a lost cause anyway, why sacrifice troops for nothing. Also in the East it is best to pull back for a turn or two until you get a good feel if you’ll need those troops on the German front or not.
You have to remember, this a a game, with playbility engineered in, not a historically balanced recreation.
All in all Dino, this a challenging game, like chess, it rarely ever plays the same, always keeps you thinking, and when well matched, can cause palms to sweat  :?, dice to fly  :-o, and memories for a lifetime  :wink:
I hope we can get a match game someday.
   Crazy Ivan   :-D

[Magister]

Good opening proposed !

If Russia buys 3inf 3arm (3inf 1arm in Caucasus, 2arm in Moscow) they can deter better Germany from stationing a big force in Karelia. (from where they may deter UK/US landings for some time…)

[dinosaur]

I computed the “value” of attacking Belorussia and here are the results.

The chance of success is pretty high.  If the allies don’t attack when they have less than 2 infantry and 2 fighters, except when the defenders have only 1 infantry defending (the allies attack if they have 1 infantry and 2 fighters or more), the allies win with no losses 15% of the time, losing only 1 infantry 31.5% of the time, losing 2 infantry and capturing the territory 24% of the time and unfortunate results for the remaining 29.5% of the time.  These first three get an additional 2 points for income received at the end of the turn.  In table form the results are:

14.96% Germans eliminated (+9 IPC), no Russian Loses (-0 IPC) & gain territory (+2 IPC) = +1.646
31.45% Germans eliminated (+9 IPC), 1 Russian inf lost (-3 IPC) & gain territory (+2 IPC) = +2.516
24.15% Germans eliminated (+9 IPC), 2 Russian inf lost (-6 IPC) & gain territory (+2 IPC) = +1.208
6.13% Germans eliminated (+9 IPC), 3 Russian inf lost (-9 IPC) = +0.000
0.02% Germans eliminated (+9 IPC), 3 Russian inf lost & 1 Russian fighter lost (-19 IPC) = -0.002
3.94% 2 German inf lost (+6 IPC), 3 Russian inf lost (-9 IPC) = -0.118
0.08% 2 German inf lost (+6 IPC), 3 Russian inf lost & 1 Russian fighter lost (-19 IPC) = -0.010
11.85% 1 German inf lost (+3 IPC), 2 Russian inf lost (-6 IPC) = -0.356
2.51% 1 German inf lost (+3 IPC), 3 Russian inf lost (-9 IPC) = -0.151
0.11% 1 German inf lost (+3 IPC), 3 Russian inf lost & 1 Russian fighter lost (-19 IPC) = -0.018
3.91% no German losses (0 IPC), 2 Russian inf lost (-6 IPC) = -0.235
0.83% no German losses (0 IPC), 3 Russian inf lost (-9 IPC) = -0.075
0.05% no German losses (0 IPC), 3 Russian inf lost & 1 Russian fighter lost (-19 IPC) = -0.010

Adding all these together, the total value is 4.40 IPCs.  Since all of the worst results occur after the first roll of the dice, the Russian player may choose not to risk the fighter under any circumstances, but mathmatically it can be justified sometimes.  One reason I like this attack is that it is a clear win in any of the first three options and they score 70.5% of the chances.  Next I will post the statistics for the West Russia attack and see how that scores.  I may also score some of Cmdr Jennifer’s options to see how they stack up.  I will definately analyze the attack on Ukraine in R1.

[trihero]

I applaud you for your math!  :-o