Twigley, I did not adress round 2 but that’s why i recommend a buy of an AC + fighter, 1 inf/1art for German round 1 as my prefered option.
This ensures Baltic fleet survives.
Try it this way on round 2, reinforce Karelia with transport and buy 2 fighters, 9 inf and 1 transport. You should have 54 ipcs. I’d say 4-5 fighters (Italy helps), 6 tanks, and 2inf/2art can hold Karelia without serious losses.
IF you aren’t prepare to reinforce Karelia, On G2, it’s still imperative to block UK drop in Karelia. A cheap trick for German to keep UK fleet at bay round 2 is simply moving the BC in sea zone 3. ( UK will still be able to land in friendly Archangel but they can’t directly attack Karelia that round )
Don’t forget Japan( round 3) and Italy, they can send troops / fighters to help.