• well we’ve already hashed out most of these differences, i’ll just correct a few misunderstandings from your last post:

    1. In the posted strategy from aabigdo, japan builds a 3rd bomber on round 2.  This made sense for his strategy and test runs, as the point is to try an all out, sustained SBR campaign even in the face of losses.

    2. In my suggestion russia doesn’t need to buy the two aa guns until russia round 3 (after jap bombers built in turn 1 land closer to russia and additional jap bomber is built on turn 2).  Of course russia can afford $10 on round 3 of a game where the axis are spending so heavily on aircraft.

    but let’s agree to disagree.  I don’t think you’ve understood the counterpoints I’ve raised and the straw man you insist on beating up has no relation to any moves i would feel pressured to take (e.g. no more than 2 aa’s, no need to cover both eastern and western fronts, no need to excessively defend transports, no need to worry about SBR on UK or USA, etc…)


  • Lol.  this arguement is over. Jen has already claimed complete, and utter proof of her arguements. And with logic like, Russia has no ability to pull in aa guns when they see a territory will be taken, how can you argue with her.

    Maybe her point of reference comes from the players she plays with. Players that will leave a territory they cant defend completely empty, except for this shiny aa gun they bought for her. Players that can’t figure out how to land allied units in europe. Why even worry about a russian strat Jen, if you have a fool proof way of preventing the allies from getting to europe, the game is already won!!

    Anyway. not worth wasting anymore energy.

  • '18 '17 '16 '11 Moderator

    I do believe Axis has just shown his naivette when it comes to playing Axis and Allies.

    If you pull your AA Guns back when a territory becomes undefendable then you negated that AA Gun’s effect on the game.  That is exactly what I already pointed out as a severe flaw in the strategy.

    If you do not pull it back, you have to defend it!  So who does it hurt more?  Russia who now has to take it back every round or risk losing their capitol to the enemy by defending this gun against all attacks, or the Axis who can afford to lose a tank or two to make sure Russia also loses a tank or two in the process of liberating it?

    Honestly, if you don’t read the counter-arguments, Axis, you’d be better off going back to playing the AI in TripleA.  It’s geared towards people who don’t read or understand different ideas and concepts.

    Eumaies:

    What I am trying to say is that two extra AA Guns cost Russia too much to be efficient.  However, extra bombers don’t cost the axis anything because they don’t have a limited ability to be used.  A bomber does not have to go on an SBR run.  An AA Gun cannot do anything if it is not attacked by an enemy aircraft (or flown over.)

    So you build the AA Guns on Russia 3.  I will assume you have 27 IPC - 4 IPC from Germany’s Bomber, - 4 from the bomber Germany bought on Round 2 but nothing from Japan since I assume Japan’s bomber was too far out into the Pacific to bomb you.  (Average Result equals 6!/6 rounded to the nearest integer.)

    So Russia has 19 IPC to spend on Round 3.  This is when you want to build the 2 AA Guns because you see Japan sitting there with 3 Bombers.  Japan has a Bomber in China, a Bomber in Yakut and a Bomber in India.  Germany has 2 Bombers one in W. Europe, one in Libya and possibly a third in Germany itself.

    Now, you take your 19 IPCs and buy, 2 AA Guns (stated) and I’ll assume 3 Infantry with the remaining 9 IPCs.  This is not a very strong build for Russia 3.  It is easy to picture the need for Russia to expend at least 5 infantry and an artillery liberating and taking Ukraine, Belorussia and Karelia.  That means you are down 2 infantry and an Artillery in combat units. (They’ll inflict damage on Germany both on their attack and on their defense.  And I am assuming all three territories were only defended by an infantry, they could have 2 or even 3 infantry defending based on how the dice worked out last round, but one infantry seems to be normal.)

    Germany, on the other hand, is looking at round 3 with 42-44 IPC easily.  Japan likewise is probably looking at 36-38 IPC this round.

    So now you have 5 AA Guns total.  2 Russian Starters, 2 Russian Built and 1 from India.

    How do you want to arrange all 5 guns in such a way to block all bombers from attacking without risking two AA Shots each?

    Also, how do you plan to recover from a round in which you effectively lost military strength?


  • ok i gotta be brief cuz i’m studying for an exam, but to your questions to me:

    1. re: bombers don’t cost anything = they are inneficient builds for japan, is my contention.

    2. russia may well have more than 27 by round 3 given your builds, and germany’s average damage is <3 per bomber, factoring in that you only hit 5/6 of the time and  cause 0 damage 1/6 of the time.  Nor can germany’s newly built bombers reliably hit moscow at this point and land safely.  Most allied moves would force a bombing of caucusus with new bombers in the first 2 rounds, which causes even less damage.

    3. Japan does not have a bomber in Yakut or India.  end of round two japan didn’t take india in round 1 to make that a safe landing zone.  in fact, if you’re playing me and you built two bombers in round 1, japan doesn’t even take india in round 2, certainly not with the move into china.  Japan also hasn’t safely taken Yakut on turn 1 for landing on round 2 ready to strike on round 3.  Instead, russia forces have not been well-countered because japan didn’t buy enough transports.  Again, this is my experience of how people would fare against me.  Obviously we have different “data sets” from our own experiences.

    4. per axis’ suggestion, i could’ve moved the aa gun from india in time for round 3 and built just one russia AA.  But since i like to hold india i probably wouldn’t do this.  In any case, russia turn 3 is a safe enough time to burn a little money when germany has burnt 30 in things that won’t quickly pressure the russian front.

    5. For reasons above, i don’t have to strain to block bombers from multiple angles on round 3.  And in future rounds i’m content to block >1/2 of the bombers effectively.  But in truth, again from my own experience, I could pwn japan with builds like that and japan’s not going to have choice places to bomb from.  Regardless, if after all this investment the bombing campaign has a limited impact, I think the allies have got a leg up.

  • '18 '17 '16 '11 Moderator

    You have to assume Germany is going to be able to trade Belorussia, Ukraine and Karelia easily for at least the first 3 rounds, especially round 2.  So there’s no funky Russia earning 35+ IPC games most of the time.  It’s far easier to assume Russia is up Belorussia and Ukraine but down Buryatia and SFE most of the time.  That’s 31-2=29.  Even then, that’s the high end of the field and assumes Germany didn’t stack the crud out of Karelia allowing them to prevent Russia from getting that high, so it’s safer to assume 27 IPC for Russia

    6!/6 is not 3.  It’s 3.5 in math we round this number to 4.  I know the guys who designed LL failed math because they like to round it down to 3, sometimes 2.5 to 3.0 depending on the flavor chosen.  But in reality, it’s 4.  Given that the odds are significantly against a bomber being shot down, we don’t have to account for the 0 variable, it’s mathematically insignificant.  So 3 bombers should be expected to inflict 12 IPC + or - 3 IPC (so you’d expect 9 < Actual < 12 in damage.)

    I agree that in some cases, 2 bombers for Japan on Round 1 is sub-optimal.  England pulling everything except 1 infantry out of India with Russia pulling everything but 1 infantry out of Buryatia and England doing the Pacific shuffle with the fleet is not a case where 2 bombers is sub-optimal.  Japan has plenty of units it can transport and will be very busy clearing islands of wasted infantry anyway.

    If England did a traditional move and Russia did a traditional move, it is quite possible for China, India and Buryatia to fall on Japan 1.  (Pearl Light is a clue.  Or you could just ignore pearl, but I prefer pearl light.)

    So in reality, the most likely situation you are looking at is:

    Japanese Bomber in China
    Japanese Bomber in Buryatia
    Japanese Bomber in India

    German Bomber in Libya
    Germany Bomber in W. Europe
    *German Bomber in Germany (this would be added in Round 3 if at all, it’s not really needed, but it is nice to have.)

    Given this, I really don’t see a viable AA Gun solution for Russia outside of America building AA Guns instead of tanks and bringing them over two or three at a time instead of liberating Africa or something.

    For the record, odds of shooting down 1 bomber out of 3:

    (1/6)(5/6)(5/6) = 12%.  Not exactly the best odds out there.
    (Success)(Fail)(Fail)

    This is my fundamental problem with LL calculations.  In LL the odds of shooting down 1 bomber in 3 is 50%, not 12%.  It completely skews the results.

    So 88% of the time 3 bombers should do about 12 IPC damage to Russia.  12% of the time 3 bombers should do about 8 IPC damage to Russia.

  • '18 '17 '16 '11 Moderator

    Actually, I have only commented on your reading and demonstrated understanding of the situation.  You have resorted to flames, flame-baiting and malicious attacks.

    Anyway, you have yet to sufficiently inform the gaming community how you are both placing your AA Guns out in traded territories AND manage not to lose them to the enemy without costs in excess of just taking the damage from attacking bombers that survive your defended AA Guns.

    You see, you have completely failed to realize that the counter to your counter was already placed.  The counter is that the axis can afford to lose 8 IPC per territory but Russia cannot afford to lose 8 IPC per territory.  (This assumes you attack with Infantry/Armor and win with Armor on both sides.)

    As an Axis member earning 30-45 IPC per turn, I’ll gladly trade you 8 IPC a round.  Especially multiple times in one round of game play! (-8 Kazakh, -8 Novosibirsk and -8 in any other territory you decide to put an AA Gun in.)  Hell, I don’t even need to bomb you then!  Now I can use my bombers on England and America since you are already bleeding yourself dry of units for your own defense!

    Of course, you could chose NOT to attack after I capture your AA Guns, but as I said, then it’s a simple matter to just walk the guns away.

    In other words, THERE IS NO VIABLE METHOD OF RUSSIA DEFENDING ITSELF WITH ALL THOSE AA GUNS!  You only end up guaranteeing that you will lose 16+ IPC a round in units, instead of 12 IPC + and that’s only on that one front!  That’s not including the other front, but that’s because I assume you want to get those guns back, not liberate EVERYTHING that you lost in the previous round! (I assume you leave that to your allies to at least stop some of the blood loss!)

    Russia - 16 IPC from trading Kazakh/Novosibirsk - 12 IPC from Germany’s SBRs of Russia/Caucasus = Total -28 IPC per round.  Income: 27 IPC or less, probably less.  Net:  -1+ IPC a round.

    Japan - 16 IPC from trading Kazakh/Novosibirsk.
    Income: 45 IPC give or take.  Net: +29 IPC a round

    Germany - Normal trading about equivalent between her and the allies (Karelia, Belorussia and Ukraine, possibly Arkhangelsk if Germany stacked Karelia Round 1.)
    Income: 40-50 IPC give or take.  Net: +40-50 IPC

    Germany + Japan:  Up at least 70 IPC a round
    Russia: Down at least 1 IPC a round.

    Net Difference:  71 or more IPC in favor of the Axis.


    Of course, that assumes that round 3 when you buy those AA Guns (and start moving extras from America/England to help) you don’t end up with Germany and a large stack of Germans and Japanese fighters in W. Russia before Russia 4.


  • @Cmdr:

    1)  Germany buys 1 Bomber and possibly 1 Fighter on Round 1. (This of course negates a carrier build which I have felt is a stupid move for quite some time now, well into the years category.)  These cost Germany nothing.  You spend IPCs for them, but they are able to be used every round, therefore, they cost nothing.

    2)  Japan buys 2 Bombers on Round 1.  If Japan goes after America’s Industrial Complexes, these bombers cost 30 IPC.  If Japan does not, and instead uses them in Asia, then they are able to be used every round and thus cost nothing.

    I will not enter in all the debate which seems like close, but just react on one point :

    When you say that it cost nothing, I understand that you want to say that this is a usefull buy, and I agree with that.

    But you cannot say that it cost nothing. Otherwise, we can say that when you loose the bomber with the AAgun defending the desesperate factory (which is with such a number of bombers flying over it ^^ ), you lose nothing. But this is not the case.

    Thus, the bombers have a cost. When Russia lose IPC by your bombers, you sometimes loose units, and so IPC, by AA defense. This is the principle of SBR campaign : you spent money in bombers to reduce the money of the other country.

    In the same way, if you want to bomb Russia every turn, you have to rebuilt a bomber some times. Otherwise, you will most of the time finish with no bombers to make your SBR campaign.

    I think that this SBR Campaign is interesting, and can work. But it is not also an unbeatable strategy. It is just an other way to attack Russia. The main interest in this strategy is, as Jennifer pointed out, that bombers can be used in a lot of situation. Thus, you can react to a lot of allies answers. But on the other hand, you will have less ground units.

    And for the AA response, I think that it can protect a little. For instance at the beginning, it is quite easy to keep territories against Japan (for the one close to Moscou at least). Thus, you will have some protections for the first turns. Moreover, I think that if England send a lot of ground unit by the north of Europe, it could enable Allies to trade territories (Karelia, Bielorussia and Ukraine I mean) with english force (this is for later turns).

    But above all I think that as with a lot of strategy in AA games, that is the reaction that you will have during the game which will give the winner. Therefore, I think that it is difficult to predict what reaction will be good ten turns after the buy of the two bombers…


  • @Cmdr:

    Actually, I have only commented on your reading and demonstrated understanding of the situation.  You have resorted to flames, flame-baiting and malicious attacks.

    Anyway, you have yet to sufficiently inform the gaming community how you are both placing your AA Guns out in traded territories AND manage not to lose them to the enemy without costs in excess of just taking the damage from attacking bombers that survive your defended AA Guns.

    You see, you have completely failed to realize that the counter to your counter was already placed.  The counter is that the axis can afford to lose 8 IPC per territory but Russia cannot afford to lose 8 IPC per territory.  (This assumes you attack with Infantry/Armor and win with Armor on both sides.)

    As an Axis member earning 30-45 IPC per turn, I’ll gladly trade you 8 IPC a round.  Especially multiple times in one round of game play! (-8 Kazakh, -8 Novosibirsk and -8 in any other territory you decide to put an AA Gun in.)  Hell, I don’t even need to bomb you then!  Now I can use my bombers on England and America since you are already bleeding yourself dry of units for your own defense!

    Of course, you could chose NOT to attack after I capture your AA Guns, but as I said, then it’s a simple matter to just walk the guns away.

    In other words, THERE IS NO VIABLE METHOD OF RUSSIA DEFENDING ITSELF WITH ALL THOSE AA GUNS!  You only end up guaranteeing that you will lose 16+ IPC a round in units, instead of 12 IPC + and that’s only on that one front!  That’s not including the other front, but that’s because I assume you want to get those guns back, not liberate EVERYTHING that you lost in the previous round! (I assume you leave that to your allies to at least stop some of the blood loss!)

    Russia - 16 IPC from trading Kazakh/Novosibirsk - 12 IPC from Germany’s SBRs of Russia/Caucasus = Total -28 IPC per round.  Income: 27 IPC or less, probably less.  Net:  -1+ IPC a round.

    Japan - 16 IPC from trading Kazakh/Novosibirsk.
    Income: 45 IPC give or take.  Net: +29 IPC a round

    Germany - Normal trading about equivalent between her and the allies (Karelia, Belorussia and Ukraine, possibly Arkhangelsk if Germany stacked Karelia Round 1.)
    Income: 40-50 IPC give or take.  Net: +40-50 IPC

    Germany + Japan:  Up at least 70 IPC a round
    Russia: Down at least 1 IPC a round.

    Net Difference:  71 or more IPC in favor of the Axis.


    Of course, that assumes that round 3 when you buy those AA Guns (and start moving extras from America/England to help) you don’t end up with Germany and a large stack of Germans and Japanese fighters in W. Russia before Russia 4.

    amazing, you do it again. A full page summary of how trading terr with aa guns is bad for russia. When i explicitly said i would not be trading terr with aa guns. But great points!!

  • '18 '17 '16 '11 Moderator

    Amazing Axis, you again fail to read through the post.  I said if you DONT trade the territories with the AA Guns, then the axis just walks them out of they way.  Now you don’t have the territory AND you don’t have the AA Guns.  So you bought them for what?  They didn’t do anything, well, they did, but it was to make your opponent stronger, not you stronger.

    At least he concedes that I have “great” points in my assertion that trading AA Guns (or buying them for that matter) is a losing proposition for Russia!


    Yoshi,

    The bombers cost nothing because they can be used as bombers each round.

    For instance, the bombers are used passively as a deterrent to allied naval shipping in the Atlantic forcing them to consolidate their fleets and buy more units to defend American transports from attack.  The best part is, they pretty much have to do this even if you never intend to attack their fleets because they don’t know your intentions!

    They are used aggressively in a myriad of ways:

    1)  They can attack Russia’s or England’s Industrial Complexes.  Russia can try to counter with AA Guns, but I’ve pretty much shredded anyone’s hopes and dreams that would ever be cost effective for Russia.  England does not have that option being on an island.

    2)  They have massive range allowing Germans to trade territories much farther away without having to move their fighters, this allows them to defend western territories with less men and in turn allows them to bring more cannon-fodder to bear on Russia. (Because the fighters can stay in Western and 1 fighter can replace - in my opinion - 3 to 4 infantry on defense.  That means those guys can move to the front lines.)

    3)  They CAN go attack America’s transports if you chose to send them there.

    Because of these 4 reasons, a bomber has either no cost, or a negative cost to Germany.  Do note, however, I did assign a cost to Japan’s extra bombers due to their lack of utility.  They either go SBR Russia or they go SBR America, they really serve no other purpose at all and they cannot shift from one to the other like Germany can without downtime in between.

    Now, I’ve demonstrated that Russia building AA Guns has a cost far in excess than they can afford. (Both in building the actual unit and in units lost defending it.  And yes, you have to defend it or you basically gave 5 IPC to your opponent for nothing, so I’ll assume the better players in the field are defending them while the best players are just not building them to begin with.)

    How about America though?  Well, to defend those 4 transports (32 IPC) they need to get units from North America to Europe/Africa/Asia they will need something.  They COULD strip naval assets from their fleet, but that would almost require them to keep their fleet with England stripping them of the flexibility of striking at Germany’s soft underbelly and liberating Africa or stripping them of their ability to reinforce Russia.  Neither option is exceptionally good in my opinion.

    So what else can they do?  Well, +2 Destroyers would serve the purpose of taking the 2 starting destroyers out of the fleet, right?  So you can invest 24 IPC in destroyers to defend those transports and now break the two fleets apart allowing the allies to engage as they otherwise would all along the northern, western and southern borders of Europe and liberating Africa.  But alas, those 24 IPC are locked away from the battle and may never be engaged, thus, they cost 24 IPC since they add nothing to your ability to win the game, but are used solely to restore the status quo.



    In summation:

    German bombers:  No to negative cost. (Like infantry and tanks have almost no cost to negative cost for just about every nation at any point during the game.)

    Japanese bombers: Moderate cost.  They can still be used, but a fighter would do the job just as easily and Japan has plenty of those to start with.  Not to mention, the two viable SBR targets are sufficiently far enough apart that Japan cannot pick a central location to hit either target, so they have to chose one and move to get in range.  Still, this is not horrible and it can be beneficial, even if all you do is hit Caucasus and bring extra firepower to bear in your other battles.

    Russian AA Guns: Potentially the worst move possible by the allies.  These have an insanely high cost, even buying just one of these too early in the game or too late in the game could tip the scales of power giving the Axis an upper hand before the allies can recover.  They’re a liability.  They’re cumbersome.  In order to negate the potential negative affects of them, you have to stack them with another AA Gun which completely defeats the purpose of building extras!  To be perfectly honest, I think building a Russian Battleship in SZ 16 is a wiser move than building a single AA Gun with Russia except in the most extreme situations - even then, think twice and phone a friend before making the purchase!


    I do have a viable solution, but no one likes it.  It’s almost my normal allied strategy to begin with.  England vs Japan, America vs Germans in Africa and Russia vs Germany, allowing Russia to focus it’s power on taking German territories while England/America liberate making Russia stronger over the course of the game, not weaker.



    Parting Shot:

    Always endeavor to build units that add to your ability to win the game.  As soon as you build units to restore the status quo, you have lost.  You cannot win Axis and Allies through defense and reaction alone.

    The reason none of the solutions presented are good enough to win (and they have ALL been tried and defeated, which is how I know how to defeat them) is because they are all yielding the initiative to the Axis.


  • I gotta agree with Yoshi on this one.

    Responding to your earlier post, Jen:

    1. Russia sometimes has more because it takes manchuria and/or doesn’t lose buryatia, particularly in a strat like this.  Please let’s not debate the details of an effective allied asian campaign, though.  It’s a whole separate topic and I don’t really care if russia’s making 31 or 29 or 27.

    2. with regards to average damage for bombers, you do have to account for 0’s, it’s called probability and i suspect you know better than that.  Here is a simple excel chart of the probabilities and the real way to calculate expected damage on a given turn (sumproduct in excel):

    Damage Probability
    0.00 0.17
    1 0.14
    2.00 0.14
    3.00 0.14
    4.00 0.14
    5.00 0.14
    6.00 0.14
    1.00
    Expected Damage Value: 2.916666667

    You said:
    “I agree that in some cases, 2 bombers for Japan on Round 1 is sub-optimal.  England pulling everything except 1 infantry out of India with Russia pulling everything but 1 infantry out of Buryatia and England doing the Pacific shuffle with the fleet is not a case where 2 bombers is sub-optimal.”

    I agree. That’s not what I would do as the allies.  Earlier in this post I noted that it’s important to fight japan, and in any case my standard opening involves neither of those moves, but instead a heavy mobilization against japan.  (For someone who doesn’t do this, the german bomber is hint enough that the brit can afford to do a more anti-japan strategy.)  I’m sure many players’ allied moves are different and involve folding to japan on every front, but i’m not answerable to that.

    I do stand corrected on the german 2 bombers.  They can be ready to raid on german round 3, and i’m not going to do anything to stop them because alone they aren’t overwhelming.

    You said this:
    "For the record, odds of shooting down 1 bomber out of 3:

    (1/6)(5/6)(5/6) = 12%.  Not exactly the best odds out there.
    (Success)(Fail)(Fail)"

    That math is not appropriate to the question.  The combined propability that 1 or more bombers of 3 are shot down by a single aa gun = 1-[(5/6)(5/6)(5/6)] = 42%.  A player gets away scot free just 58% of the time.  Your math may be coloring your conclusions, but don’t be surprised when your bombers get shot down more than 12% of the time :)  Keep in mind that 1/6 is 17%. – that’s for just a single bomber run.

    As for your latest post, did i or did i not say that the key to beating this strategy was to pound on japan with britain and other allied forces?  Your megolamania in that post is astounding, and for the record I’m pretty sure everyone who has posted to this discussion disagrees that you have “proven” anything.  But please, don’t keep trying to convince us!

  • '18 '17 '16 '11 Moderator

    Okay, but let’s keep in mind that Germany and Japan are going to know Russia’s first move before they do their own moves.

    For instance, if Russia takes Norway, W. Russia and Ukraine on Russia 1 and sets up an attack on Manchuria for Russia 2, then things are going to be insanely different.

    As for the math you cannot include the odds of a bomber doing zero damage in the amount of damage expected from a bomber.  If the bomber is shot down, you have 100% chance of doing 0 IPC damage.  It’s completely unrelated to the average damage expected from the bomber.

    To clarify, you first have the binomial of shooting down a bomber.  After that, you have the probability of doing X amount of damage for each bomber.  They are not dependent variables, they are independent.

    The way you set up the numbers, if all three bombers were shot down, they would still be expected to do 3 IPC in damage each.  You failed to run that through the logic check.  If shooting down a bomber affected the expected damage, then your equation should have resulted in 0 IPC in expected damage, not 9 IPC total in expected damage (3 bombers * 3 IPC.)

    So in reality the odds, according to Frood, of shooting down bombers are:

    Probability % # units / losses
      57.57% 3: 3 Bom. no units. : 0 IPCs
      34.8% 2: 2 Bom. 1 Bom. : 15 IPCs
      7.24% 1: 1 Bom. 2 Bom. : 30 IPCs

    So in that regard, the odds are slightly better you may lose a bomber.  But you will notice, they are still very significantly in favor of the Axis over all.  In fact, shooting down all three is so rare it doesn’t even make the list at 0.01%!

    Then after you determine bombers shot down (probably zero shot down) then you calculate damage inflicted by bombers. So the damage expectancy of a bomber is 6!/6 that is (65432*1) / 6 or 3.5 which, since you cannot surrender half an IPC is really 4 IPC in damage per bomber.

    That means your break down is actually:

    1 IPC = 16.67%
    2 IPC = 16.67%
    3 IPC = 16.67%
    4 IPC = 16.67%
    5 IPC = 16.67%
    6 IPC = 16.67%

    Since the odds of all events are equal you can use the formula above.  6!=21 for the record, and 21/6 = 3.5.  Since we are using 3 bombers, that’s 3*4=12 IPC most of the time.  Rarely it is 8 IPC expected.  Very rarely it is 4 IPC expected.  Almost never, so close to 0 probability it does not register as even 1 hundredth of 1%, 0 IPC.



    The only way I can think to make it a joint probability is to multiply the expected damage by the expected number of bombers left.  That would be the expected value of P time the most likely outcome.  {E(Y)}{P($)}

    That would be (12*.5757)+(8*.348)+(4*.724)+(0*0) = 9.982 IPC lost per round.  So with 3 bombers, accounting for an AA Gun, Russia should still lose 10 IPC per Axis bombing them.  That’s 20 IPC per game turn with each side hitting you with 3 bombers.


  • I used two separate calculations to show two different probability problems, and my “average damage” was a probabilistic expected value.

    In any case, Frood’s numbers are the same as mine (42% of someone getting shot) and you and I are almost in agreement with your final expected value calculation.  Except for expected value you should not be rounding damage, and if you substitute 3.5 for all those 4’s in your final calculation, you get…

    10.5 0.5757
    7 0.348
    3.5 0.0724
    8.73425

    Using frood’s numbers.  Hence my analysis of ~9 damage on average for 3 bombers.


  • @Cmdr:

    The basic premise here is that 3 bombers for each Germany and Japan can do a maximum of 24 IPC damage to Russia (cap because Moscow is 8 and Stalingrad is 4.)  Since Russia is generally earning 24 or less anyway, this could potentially be their entire pay check.  If they cannot build units, they cannot afford to attack territories even if protected by one measly infantry.  That means you don’t have to invest in units to trade territories so you can mass your army faster.

    @Cmdr:

    Notice the strategy IS NOT TO STRATEGICALLY BOMB RUSSIA.  The strategy is to get the allies to waste money on things that are not tanks and transports!

    Sure looks like it morphed to me, but hey what do I know?

  • '18 '17 '16 '11 Moderator

    You know what, Axis, I’m tired of letting you flame bait me and attack me with slander.

    I’ll be referring your comments to Imperial Leader and DarthMaximus for review.


    Seth:

    A basic premise is not a strategy.  The PREMISE is to do 24 IPC dmg to Russia each round.  the STRATEGY is to make the allies waste money.

    In either event the outcome is the same.  You either attack Russia doing 24 IPC in damage (max) through direct bombing, or you cause the allies to spend 24 IPC or more to return themselves to the status quo (which has the same effect as just bombing them, but at a reduced risk to the axis.)


    Eumaies:

    I disagree.  It should be counted as 4 IPC in damage.  Likewise, in LL, you shouldn’t have 2.5 IPC damage to your bomber, it should be 3.  This negates having partial IPC if using odd numbered bombers.


  • for the record, i’m completely on axis’ side in this skuffle.   IMO you were really rude and condescending in this paticular discussion, jen.


  • @Cmdr:

    Yoshi,

    The bombers cost nothing because they can be used as bombers each round.

    As I said, I agree that this bombers are usefull. But some other use of the 15 IPC could be more usefull in such situation. What I want to say is that building a bomber has a cost: 15 IPC. This is not zero IPC. Then, of course, the bomber is used, so that you do not lose your money : this money is a usefull investment. But you cannot say “the bomber  has no cost ; they make russia lose IPC ; thus the axis win” (I do not say that these words are precisely yours, but this is the way I understand what you mean when I read your posts). Indeed, you can loose the bombers, such that you are trading money between Axis and Russia (if making SBR campaign against this country). This is not useless, and can be very good. But this is not unbeatable. It depends of what happens in the other points of the game, and also of the dice (for instance, if you are quite unlucky with AAguns, you can be in trouble, and on the other side if your bombers are never killed, Russia will be in a very bad position ^^ ), more than in classical battles I think (since each plane killed is 15 IPC lost, and not 3 IPC when you took one more defense it than the average in ground combat for instance)

    @Cmdr:

    For instance, the bombers are used passively as a deterrent to allied naval shipping in the Atlantic forcing them to consolidate their fleets and buy more units to defend American transports from attack.  The best part is, they pretty much have to do this even if you never intend to attack their fleets because they don’t know your intentions!

    I totally agree with this point. This is one of the interest to invest in planes with germans. But in practice, it will make the Allies buy a carrier for UK and US, what they often do. And then, to force them to buy more naval units, you will have limited movement with your plane. Thus, you force them to buy these carriers, but you cannot say that this is 32 IPC spent for nothing for the Allies : first, they often buy it, and secondly this enable them more flexibility for their plane also.

    But on an other hand, the first bomber bougth by german is very usefull to protect Algeria in the first trun (and so to gain one turn on the classical Africa reconquest of the Allies).

    To conclude this point, I would say that bombers are very interesting for this point, but it is difficult to conclude that it cost money to the Allies…

    @Cmdr:

    They are used aggressively in a myriad of ways:

    1)  They can attack Russia’s or England’s Industrial Complexes.  Russia can try to counter with AA Guns, but I’ve pretty much shredded anyone’s hopes and dreams that would ever be cost effective for Russia.  England does not have that option being on an island.

    without talking of buying more AA guns for Russia (which I think need a lot more of details to understand all the problem), attacking industrial complexes has a cost : the price of the bombers you can lose. In average (and to look this point we need to consider the average), you loose 15/6=2.5 IPC, and you win 5/6*3.5=2.91 IPC, that I will round to 3 (which is better for your strategy). Thus, you gain only 0.5 IPC buy bombers. And this is for one bomber, which can make 6 IPC damage (for instance, this change when you attack Caucas or when you have two bombers on Russia, since when the two bombers are not killed by AA Gun, you are limited to 8 on your damage). But anyway, I think that we can assume the following : you do not gain money when you attack russian industrial complexes, and you do not loose money (I can make the all average computations if you want to be more precise, but I do not think that we need more mathematics in this discussion. The aim is not to see if you win 0.1 IPC or 0.3 IPC, at least this is my opinion: I make enough mathmatics at work :) ).

    This said, I think that even if you do not gain money by bombing the Russian Factories, it is still interesting: as Germany and Japan make this, they each loose a part of their money where as the Russia loose most of its own. And this is an oter interesting point of this strategy. What I want to say is that bombers have a cost: precisely this money that you invest to make Russia loose money.

    @Cmdr:

    2)  They have massive range allowing Germans to trade territories much farther away without having to move their fighters, this allows them to defend western territories with less men and in turn allows them to bring more cannon-fodder to bear on Russia. (Because the fighters can stay in Western and 1 fighter can replace - in my opinion - 3 to 4 infantry on defense.  That means those guys can move to the front lines.)

    If you replace fighters by bombers to trade territories, when you are not applying your original strategy. Thus here you do not gain really something from your bomber. I mean, let say that you can keep 2 more fighters in France because you have two more bombers. Assume that this 2 fighters enable you to send 7 more guys to the east then if you needed your fighters (and this is I think a lot, or only when you already have a very big number of infantry in France, that means not a the beginning). The two bombers you bought cost you 30 IPC, that is 10 infantry, less than 7.

    But I agree that this may be a usefull use of your bombers, especially to force allies to invest in navy if they want to attack for instance from SZ 5 (since the fighters in france are more agressive on the UK or US navy). One more, UK can go via SZ 4 to deal with such fighters agression.

    To conclude, this can be interesting, but not more (in my opinion of course, I do not claim anything more than my opinion ;) ). Only in special situation I think.

    @Cmdr:

    3)  They CAN go attack America’s transports if you chose to send them there.

    Once more, a AC buy from the US, added to its initial boats (1 BB and two destroyers, added to 2 planes an a carrier, and say 5 trannies, you need a very big number of planes to attack that), can cancel that. And this is when you want to go close to the German planes. Otherwise, you can for instance go to SZ4 with the UK, and do not have to consider any defense against Germans planes, since you will have the two Allies fleets together)

    @Cmdr:

    Because of these 4 reasons, a bomber has either no cost, or a negative cost to Germany.

    As already said, I considered that they have a cost. This cost  is an investment that you will get back during the game. But it include the Allies losses from your bombers.

    So you can say that it has no cost if you include money lost by the Allies from that bomber, and I will agree with that. But then, you cannot say “they have no cost and then they make Allies losses”: the Allies losses have already been counted to say that the bombers have no cost.

    @Cmdr:

    Do note, however, I did assign a cost to Japan’s extra bombers due to their lack of utility.  They either go SBR Russia or they go SBR America, they really serve no other purpose at all and they cannot shift from one to the other like Germany can without downtime in between.

    For Japan bombers, I think it depends: if US goes KJF, then you will have more power to fight against the US navy and may appreciate these bombers. Thus, in such case, we can say that this is usefull (but as said a44bigdog, I think that a 8 bid for a japan tranny is required such that you can send some troops in Asia at the begginning).

    Otherwise, if US goes KGF, I think that Japan can buy bombers, since he will become rich quite fast. Thus, the trade of money between Japan and Russia is clearly an advantage for Japan.

    To conclude, I think that this strategy is interesting. I see here an other way to defeat Russia. But how Germans will defend against a KGF strategy with a two bombers buy at the beginning, I do not know how it will conclude for the germans. I would say that it would conclude with a fall of Russia an Germany, as quite often in KGF games, but then… too much difficult to say what would appear ^^

  • '18 '17 '16 '11 Moderator

    Let me rephrase, since it seems some are unclear on the concept of “cost.”

    The bombers require 15 IPC to build.  However, if their original purpose for being built is not realized, they are still valuable units.  Therefore they don’t “cost” you anything to build.  Perhaps 5 infantry would be better, perhaps not.  Remember, the bombers still pull double duty by acting as both a deterrent and a long range heavy hitter for your attacks.

    Building a second carrier and fighters for it, or a pair of destroyers (which I prefer since they don’t tie up the fighters which is what makes the carrier a good defensive piece) to defend against the threat of the bombers is “lost” money.  Yes, you have the units, but they are not adding anything to your ability to prosecute the war.  Their only reason for being is to counter the bombers.  If the bombers never attack, then they have added nothing to your strategy.  Therefore, they “cost” you money.

    Building AA Guns are potentially the worst possible move you can make.  Not only are they completely useless unless they are attacked by aircraft, but they can be captured.  If they are captured you have to chose to attack them with high value units or let them be wisked away.  There’s just no good option with these things.  No matter what you do, they’ve cost you more in the long run than if you had never built them to begin with.  At best you are out 5 IPC and manage to win every engagement to liberate them with only the 2 infantry you would have sent in to battle in a normal engagement.  At worst, they cost you the 5 IPCs to build them and tanks or planes liberating them each round.  No matter what you do with these, they cost you!  Now, I know, you are going to say they cost the Axis too since they have to dedicate tanks or planes trying to take them each round, but you have to think, we’re talking round 3 here (according to eumaies) when these things are built.  Who exactly can afford to lose tanks each round better?  Germany and Japan or Russia?

    Furthermore, each AA Gun that Russia produces is one less unit that can attack.  That doesn’t seem like much, but then, you are worried about a little old bomber doing a mere 3 IPC (according to eumaies) or 4 IPC (according to me).  Both of those are less than the cost of one little AA Gun.  So right off the bat, if you build two of these which is what eumaies wants to build, you are taking a 10 IPC hit, and now you have to defend them.

    Furthermore, if you wanted to bring AA Guns from America, as some had mentioned, if you started in Round 3 we’re talking 1 Round to E. Canada from E. USA.  1 Round to England from E. Canada.  1 Round to Arkhangelsk from England. And multiple rounds getting into position from there (depending where you want to go, Arkhangelsk could be your destination, but so could W. Russia, Kazakh, Novosibirsk or Evenki.)  So at the very best, you’re looking at 3 rounds just moving the gun.  So, starting in round 3 which is when you see those bombers (1 Gerry in Round 1, 1 Gerry in Round 2; 2 Japanese in either Round 1 or Round 2, I prefer round 2, but the original statement by A44 was Round 1)  means you will have your AA Gun from America around turn 6 to turn 8.  Are you sure Russia will still be there?


    Just to reclarify:

    “cost” does not mean IPC required to build it.  “Cost” means a detraction from your ability to prosecute the war.  Anything built purely for defense with no offensive ability and/or offensive expectation “costs” you.  Sometimes that “cost” is valuable, sometimes it is not.  In the case of extra ships and planes to defend transports way out in SZ 2 for America or extra AA Guns for Russia, that “cost” is not justified.

    What does it “cost” Germany to build the bombers?  Nothing.  The loss of cannon fodder is minuscule compared to the production ability of Germany.  That minuscule loss of fodder is more than balanced by the increased flexibility of having an extra or two extra bombers on hand.  If that were not enough, the ability to keep your fighters in W. Europe to maximize your threat to the allied fleet and defend from invasions (thus freeing cannon fodder which might even exceed the number you could have bought for those IPC) clearly sends the value of that Germany bomber from “cost” to “asset”.

    In Japan’s case, it is a cost.  Japan does not have the same production capacity of Germany and what it does have, requires transports and/or new industrial complexes.  Furthermore, Japan has plenty of fighters and bombers to do what it needs without needing to build more.  If America was being a nuisance and going KJF, then they might be an asset, but in the general case, they are a cost.


  • Now let the person HAS played quite a few of these games chime back in.

    Buying 2 AA guns with Russia is a completely horrible idea.

    That is 2 armor when Russia desperately needs those two armor. I have had the Allies bring in additional AA guns and I have either flown around them or judged the potential damage to Russia worth the risk and went ahead and flew right on over them. And as Jenn did point out those AA guns have to be protected. Russia cannot afford to lose a fighter over a trade territory.

    To the point of the reduced Japanese ground forces. I have found it has very little effect. Japan has about what it normally has on the front lines. With the bombers it has increased flexible offensive units to expand its area with, which is something it normally lacks.

    In both Axis’s and eumanies’s arguments Russia has some super strong army in Asia halting Japanese expansion that I have yet seen.

    From what I have seen so far is the Allies HAVE to consolidate and supplement their fleets in the Atlantic to even survive. They then have to ferry units to Russia to make good their losses to keep the Japanese out. This means less pressure on Germany. So far no American fleet has been more than a periphery annoyance. Perhaps liberating New Zealand and Australia but that is it. The ones that have come closer have been sunk.

    Again I have not been able to develop an Allied response to this yet. I can say for a fact that surrounding Russia with AA guns is no silver bullet.


  • i think aabigdog and jen you both just have different experiences, or “data sets” in terms of what occurs on the asian front than others in this discussion do.  It’s probably a function of opponents and play style, but in my games japan gets squeezed very hard for a significant amount of time, rather than the all out KGF that is closer to normal in the games and examples you’re citing.  Examples include jen’s expectation of a retreat from buryatia and india, as compared to my expectation of pushing hard on those fronts.  The bomber strat no doubt works better in the former case.  Part of this might also be the bid of a transport for japan, which i do think is a bit much (certainly more than i’d ever expect) and probably colors the experience.

    Axis has already addressed the first of these two expectation differences but I’ll make them again:

    1. the aa’s positioned in asia covering the east asia front presuppose there’s no back and forth conflict there for several turns.  In our games, there typically isn’t.

    2. for the allied fleets in the atlantic, i think your expectations (and aabigdog’s opponents) are simply mistaken.  allied fleets need to be capable of killing expensive german bombers and fighters, not of keeping all their transports safe no matter what.  1 destroyer & 2 transports is FINE against 2 bombers.  1 destroyer and 4 transports is FINE against 3 bombers.  It seems crazy, but the defender wins more often then not and germany (which can least afford it) loses at least as much value as the US.  What has essentially happened is the us builds a high volume of useful transports, and if they get attacked it’s not the end of the world and a few ground forces get delayed, and if they don’t, you use them.   Finally, as axis pointed out, where you land the bombers makes all the difference in whether they can threaten the US or prep for effective SBR runs.

    anyway, while it’s only one of multiple reasonable responses to the SBR strategy, i’m certain building 2 aa’s is not a game breaker build for russia on turn 3.

    also, jen, while i’m not banking on any aa guns from eastern us, it actually makes perfect sense to move the us aa gun to eastern canada on turn 1 in every game.  it’s no use at home and you never know when you might want to or have extra space to ship it over.

    finally, on the disagreement about probablities – rounding is probably not something you want to do until you get your final answer… at the end 8.7 or 10.2 is not a whole $ value, so then you round to 9 or 10.  But I gurantee if you bomb with 3 bombers 100 times in various games, you will on average cause 9 damage, not 10.  (as a simple example, consider 2 bombers – one rolling a 3 and the other a 4, = 7, /2 = 3.5… and suddenly the average damage was 3.5.  Go figure!  Fractions happen in real life).

    p.s.  i just can’t bring myself to learn how to work the aabattlemap system withposting on the forum and separate die rolling and all that, but if either of you guys ever wants to try this on gametable.com, i’d be open to it. While I can’t give you the extra transport in the environment, I could simulate a reasonable bid bonus for the axis by walling off $3-5 away from russia that i would hold but never spend, or something like that.  The idea would not be for me to test a rigid strategy like always building 2 aa guns (i might or might not depending on situation), but I’m pretty sure I could demonstrate the asian experience japan should be contending with given those builds.


  • eumaies if you would be willing to try a game here on the forums I would be glad to walk you through it. Basically you post what your moves are, roll the dice via the forum, post the results and your non combat moves and then attach the map. Battlemap “does” absolutely nothing. It is merely a virtual game board.

    I did try to play a game with you at gametable and honestly I do not like the program for the same reason I do not like tripleA. I find that looking at such a small view of the map reminds me of playing drunk with one eye open and I play about as well.

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