Best way to sneak up on UK

But there are at least two other attempts you can make to make to stop the unifaction.  Someone else care to present the scenarios?

I may have been jumping the gun a bit.

Does anyone still think the Z12 block is a good move if Germany has 5 or more ftrs available?

If not, I think it would be interesting to walk through the two other counters mentioned so far: a Z06 UK blockade, and purchasing 3ftr (or some other offense) from the UK to attack the united fleet to prevent the unification.

But I don’t want to bore folks (more than usual) if we’re past the point where the topic is interesting.

Peace

I still like the SZ 12 move, even if it reduces your fleet, because it gives you 4 ground units from England and 4 ground units from America in Algeria and most likely ground units for England in Egypt.  That means Germany’s not just sweeping up free income.

But if you absolutly must maintain your British fleet (which is a waste of a good opportunity to cripple the German fleet which you admit would be sacrificed just getting out of the med and thus, probably wouldn’t be put through the sacrifice) you could build 3 submarines or 3 fighters and add them to your fleet for bigger punch on UK2.

Hey Jen.

Ok, let’s go with the idea that you think the fleet trade is a good move.  You have one more problem.  You have put 4inf 2art 2tnk in Algeria.  The Germans have 4tra in the Baltic.  They can bring 4inf 4tnk 5ftr 1bmr to London.  That IS defensible if you build 5inf 3tnk R1 and land all Allied aircraft there.  That in and of itself is a pretty lame UK opening, but it’s not an instant loss.

Then there’s another subsidiary problem: What if Germany finishes the Land Bridge and buys another 5tra?  That’s 9tra of gear that can hit London R3.  Your Z12 fleet is attacked anyhow because it won’t cost the Germans planes and they don’t want London reinforced.

But really that is all secondary.  If you think it is worth losing 76 IPCs of Allied boats to kill 40 IPCs of German boats, we’re not talking the same language.  You could go to Africa R2 in safety without taking that horrific IPC loss, so I don’t think getting to Africa R1 is a big plus.

Pro Z12 block: Africa R1, German fleet won’t be united.
Con Z12 block: 76 IPCs of navy traded for 40 IPCs of navy, UK must build 8 ground troups R1, land in Africa R2, Allied planes locked into London.

It is just a bad, bad move.

Peace

Well, one of the obvious is a UK1 attack on the Baltic Fleet.  2 FIG, 1 BOM vs, 2 SUB, 1 DST, 1 TRN.

Better than a 4 in 5 chance to clear SZ5, meaning there are no Baltic ships alive to link with, at a cost of, on average 2 FIGs.

A second would be if the Germans failed to take Gibraltar, then you kill the Med Fleet with DST, BOM, and 2 FIG.

Now who is up for a third?

Could also leave the med fleet operating only in SZ 14, 15, 16. Assuming the Japanese can contain India’s fleet and the UK uses up their fighters in the Baltic, it can be a menacing diversion for a little while. Nice to get that battleship shot and a couple of Italian infantry in on Caucasus should Germany feel aggressive/suicidal too…

@ncscswitch:

Well, one of the obvious is a UK1 attack on the Baltic Fleet.  2 FIG, 1 BOM vs, 2 SUB, 1 DST, 1 TRN.

Yeah, for sure.  If the Baltic has no extra boats, you gotta pop 'em.  That’s pretty close to a given.

In this case, however, I was specifically thinking of three ways to try and prevent the unification of the fleet after invading Gibraltar and buying 3tra in the Baltic.

The first way, which we’ve already analyzed, was to blockade Z12.

The second way mentioned in this thread was to buy 3ftr.

The third way mentioned was to blockade Z06.

There may be other ways, but those are probably the main ones.

Who wants to take the first pass at the second way?  The goal of that move is to buy offense to sink the combined fleet in Z07 such that it is no longer worth it for Germany to combine the fleets.  How does that look on cost/benefit assessment?  Would boats do better than planes?

Somebody put up your best plan and tell us if you think it will work to prevent the unification or not.  You don’t necessarily have to think the plan is good; just come up with the best case for us to analyze.

I like the group solution process.  It’s cool to see how people think differently about the game.

Peace

Gotcha. I like the flexibility of Z12 block - plus it’s a good meeting point to get the US in there to keep the blocker going. The other two are a bit more expensive/less flexible for the UK.

I’ll take a shot at the 3 fgt counter…

UK: Buy 3 fgt to counter fleet unification in SZ7

G1 Assumptions:
Ger Med Fleet in WMD w/1 trn, 1 bb, 1 sub
Ger Baltic Fleet 1 des, 2 sub, 4 trn
6 GER fgt survived
UK GRN Fleet survived w/1 bb, 1 trn
UK LAB trn survived

Step 1: Assess Sea Lion Threat.
UK will have 1 AA, 2 inf, 1 art, 1 arm, 5 fgt, 1 bmb
GER can invade with 5 inf, 5 arm, 5 fgt, 1 bmb, 1 bb, on G2 (1 fgt 1 bmb in Lib)

• With no additional help, GER takes UK 95% of the time.  UK needs help to defend against G2 Sea Lion
  UK transports 1 arm from WCan to UK on UK1
  US lands 1 bmb, 1 fgt in UK on US1
  US transports 2 inf, 1 art, 1 arm to UK on US1
• with this additional help, GER only takes UK 8.2% of the time.
  Also, USSR could land fighters in UK if they are available.

Step 2: Assess SZ7 attack in UK2.
SZ7 will have: 5 trn, 3 sub, 1 des, 1 bb
UK can hit it with 2 trn, 1 bb, 5 fgt, 1 bmb

• attacker survives 67.5%.  Median result would be to survive with 1 fgt, 1 bmb.  This assumes the GER subs don’t submerge.
• analysis: GER loses all boats (100 IPC) while UK loses 4 fgt, 2 trn, 1 bb (80 IPC).  This looks better than a SZ12 blockade option, but still a 29% chance that the GER bb lives.

Very good.

I don’t see anything off hand I disagree with there, so let’s expand on a couple of points:

1. The win percentage is about 67%.  Functionally, you’re a little better off than that because the UK can stop early and have the US finish the job.  It may mean the btl recharges, but you can decide if that’s a price worth paying.  The downside, of course, is the 1/3 chance you’ll get smoked overall.  That’s not a trivial likelihood, but it may not be a deterrent.

2. Interesting note: the UK btl is very likely to die.  Normally you would just plan on taking that as a last casualty, but because of the casualty order for the Germans, the UK is likely to get a sub hit on the btl.  Nothing crazy there, I just think it is interesting.

Now let’s get to the real assessment:

3. The UK has lost a lot of navy; Germany has lost no planes.  The German naval threat is eliminated, but THE ALLIES STILL HAVE TO BUILD CAPITAL SHIPS to defend against the untouched Luftewaffe.

4. Germany bought 24 IPCs of gear to leverage the existing 76 IPCs of gear.  That’s not a bad investment to protect units that would otherwise die with little gain (Baltic smoked immediately on the cheap, the Med fleet would die in the mid-game on the cheap).  So spending 24 IPCs got you a lot of benefit.  Germany spent 24; UK spent 30.  UK will have to then spend a lot more in the water.

5. The UK is not putting gear in the water, or the mainland, or Africa early.  R1 purchase was 3ftr.  That all dies.  They lose their boats and most of their planes in the attack.  They need to buy new transports AND the Allies need capital ships.

Pro Z07 attack w/ 3ftr purchase: German navy dies 67% of the time from the UK; US can finish off remainder.
Con Z07 attack w/ 3ftr purchase: Starting UK navy dies R2.  R1 purchase dies R2.  Fleet unprotected.  Significant chance of a bad outcome in Z07 attack.  No troops in Africa for UK earlier than R3.

One final note:
6. If Germany buys a carrier instead of 3tra, there is no way the UK can touch the united fleet.  Personally, I prefer the flexibility of the transports because I’m happy with the above pros/cons, but my point here is that if your sole goal is the united fleet, the carrier does the job quite well.

That’s my first pass on the assessment.  Anyone see something major I missed?

Summary points: 3ftr + Z07 attack is not terrible, but as Allies I do not like the Pros vs. the Cons.  It is better than a Z12 block.  Against a purchase of a single German carrier in the Baltic you can’t attack Z07.

Someone poke at this.

using the same exact assumptions as rjclayton’s 3 fig scerniro, i believe that 1sub,1destoyer and 1 fig is a better buy. (8+12+10=30)
you will be able to bring 2 trns, 1sub, 3 figs, 1 destroyer, 1 bomber, and 1 battleship vs. 5 trn, 3 sub, 1 des, 1 bb. there is only a 63.3% chance of killing everything. but you will loss 66 ipcs for the median compared to the 3 figs option that had 80ipcs. you will be able to save your battleship untill teh end and either a bomber or destroyer(whichever you prefer to keep). this build allows the destroyer to prevent the subs from killing your navy before they fire back. if you build 3 trns for UK 2, then your battleship can protect the trns and will not make it viable for germany to attack. if your attack does fail the US can always finish the job.

@cyan:

if you build 3 trns for UK 2, then your battleship can protect the trns and will not make it viable for germany to attack. if your attack does fail the US can always finish the job.

Unless you are planning on having the US navy consolidate with your 1 bb, 3 trn, this is probably not a good idea.  We are assuming the GER air remains intact.  1 bmb 6 fgt vs. 3 trn 1 bb -> GER only loses 2 fgt to squash your navy.  If US does consolidate in SZ7 to protect UK navy (this is on US2), they would only be able to do so with starting navy of 1 des, 2 trn (any US1 builds can’t reach there yet).  And these trn would have to offload onto UK (they are not going to take WEU, and can’t unload to anywhere else) so Allies are still not landing anything into Europe or Africa until round 3 earliest.

@cyan:

i believe that 1sub,1destoyer and 1 fig is a better buy

Yeah, I was looking at that too.  If you’re going to do the attack, that may be a better way to do it.  You can also take a hit on a ftr to preserve the des.  That COULD leave you with:

5tra 1sub 3des 1btl

That’s 1sub from Russia, 2tra 1des from EUS, 1des from PAN (moves to Z11 R1; won’t be attacked), 3tra 1des 1btl from UK.

That’s not all bad.  That’s doable.

Of course, you’re still anticipating that you win the battle in Z07 with not-great odds.  But that’s getting there.  As a German player, however, I’d still pay the 24 IPCs to kill those planes, boats, and have a chance to win the battle.  And again, it won’t work against a carrier unification plan.

Any other ways to hit Z07 worth exploring?  2bmr?  Planned UK/US rotation on Z07?  We haven’t yet looked at a serious UK strafe/US clean up plan.

When should the UK pull back?  Should the US build car/bmr to put more gear on Z07 R2?

Peace

yay, I looked at the 2 bombers and its 55% sucees rate. also i looked at 3 subs which is the worst at 52%.  trying to leave 1 battleship for the us only boost tour surviabilty to 70% the us cant handle anything more than that beacuse there a chance(30%) that the destroyer will live too. when i ran the battle I did let the figs die first.

@rjclayton:

@cyan:

if you build 3 trns for UK 2, then your battleship can protect the trns and will not make it viable for germany to attack. if your attack does fail the US can always finish the job.

Unless you are planning on having the US navy consolidate with your 1 bb, 3 trn, this is probably not a good idea.  We are assuming the GER air remains intact.  1 bmb 6 fgt vs. 3 trn 1 bb -> GER only loses 2 fgt to squash your navy.  If US does consolidate in SZ7 to protect UK navy (this is on US2), they would only be able to do so with starting navy of 1 des, 2 trn (any US1 builds can’t reach there yet).  And
these trn would have to offload onto UK (they are not going to take WEU, and can’t unload to anywhere else) so Allies are still not landing anything into Europe or Africa until round 3 earliest.

what are the russians doing all this time? if they see germany buying navy then they should fully expliote that. germany will be using no airunits on the eastren front. germany is going to hurt if it does that. there will be less battles germany can do and it will lose more units. russia should be able to make a lot of progress in in europe. the reason germany only bought 3 trns instead of 5 is that they need to drive russia back.

with the car option with 2 figs on it, theres a less than 23% chance for either mine or rjclayton’s idea to work. so you have to stop germany  from uniting its fleet. if the Algeria is taken US1 then russia can land figs there. so if russia builds 1 fig(which i’ve always been agianst but now see the benfeits) then it can stop the unifaction.

Hello all! 1st timer here. Nice to see that there are others out there who enjoy playing and strategizing as much as I do. A lot of interesting points made. It would seem to me that you all know your stuff. If I were to go against the UK with any one of you controlling the Allies it would be because I have lost my mind and do not feel like playing anymore :). In other words……I would not do it unless the Allied person was a newb and he forgot to make any purchases. That’s just me though. Tough nut to crack and leaves you very vulnerable. I have tried it early in the game against a less experienced player and survived with one tank left. Don’t think it will ever happen again.

I’ve actually never played the allies for revised  :oops: this is all counter startegy(cause Japan is the best).

@cyan:

I’ve actually never played the allies for revised  :oops: this is all counter startegy(cause Japan is the best).

Eeenngggg, wrong, nope.  Germany is the best! Germany is teh pawnage!!!1111!!!1111!!!11!!1 CHINAINFISFORNOOBS!!! :mrgreen:

what are the russians doing all this time? if they see germany buying navy then they should fully expliote that. germany will be using no airunits on the eastren front. germany is going to hurt if it does that. there will be less battles germany can do and it will lose more units. russia should be able to make a lot of progress in in europe. the reason germany only bought 3 trns instead of 5 is that they need to drive russia back.

Good point… for sure Russia should get aggressive round 2 if the Germans invest heavily in the kriegsmarine. Also, another easy stopper to the German fleet linkup is to dump the russian sub into SZ6 (that is, if it’s still alive after round 1).

woops - goofed up the quote on the last post…

A small blocker in SZ6 won’t prevent the linkup.  Germany can simply sink the sub with it’s fighters and still do the linkup in non-combat movement.

There is always the massed UK fleet in SZ6 option….

1 BB, 1 DST, 1 TRN, 1 AC, 2 FIG, and 1 USSR SUB.

Makes for a pretty nasty force for the Germans to deal with.  Sure, the UK loses their fleet, but the German’s lose theirs, and a nice chunk of the Luftwaffe as well

With anythign less than 5 FIGs, there is no Baltic fleet left to make the link.  With less than 4 FIGs, the Luftwaffe ends up pretty thin after the battle…
And the US counter on the Med Fleet and/or any Baltic remnants is going to be UGLY for Germany…