VF (Germany) vs. Ragnell (Allies) | Original Europe with TGC balance, Game 8


  • @Ragnell804

    subs [dice 2d6<=2]


  • 2d6<=2: 5, 4; Hits: 0


  • @VictoryFirst

    Game History

    Round: 1
    
        Purchase Units - Americans
            Americans buy 2 artilleries, 2 destroyers and 1 transport; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 
    
        Combat Move - Americans
            1 destroyer moved from U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone to Davis Strait Sea Zone
            1 bomber and 1 fighter moved from United States to Davis Strait Sea Zone
    
        Combat - Americans
            Battle in Davis Strait Sea Zone
                British loiter and taunt; Americans attack with 1 bomber, 1 destroyer and 1 fighter
                Germans defend with 3 submarines
                    Americans roll dice for 1 bomber, 1 destroyer and 1 fighter in Davis Strait Sea Zone, round 2 : 2/3 hits, 1.67 expected hits
                    Germans roll dice for 3 submarines in Davis Strait Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/3 hits, 1.00 expected hits
                    1 destroyer owned by the Americans lost in Davis Strait Sea Zone
                    2 submarines owned by the Germans lost in Davis Strait Sea Zone
                Germans and Americans reach a stalemate
                . Battle score for attacker is 4
                Casualties for Americans: 1 destroyer
                Casualties for Germans: 2 submarines
    
        Non Combat Move - Americans
            Turning on Edit Mode
            EDIT: Adding units owned by Americans to Davis Strait Sea Zone: 1 destroyer
            EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode
            1 bomber moved from Davis Strait Sea Zone to United Kingdom
            1 fighter moved from Davis Strait Sea Zone to Iceland
    
        Place Units - Americans
            2 destroyers and 1 transport placed in U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone
            2 artilleries placed in United States
    
        Turn Complete - Americans
            Americans collect 40 PUs; end with 40 PUs
    

    Combat Hit Differential Summary :

    Americans regular : 0.33
    Germans regular : 0.00
    

    Allies 1.tsvg


  • @The_Good_Captain

    I am a bit confused how you calculate the net German pieces. Do you just look at Units Left If Att/Def Won and always look at it from the attacker’s perspective? Do you look at Average Units Left if the attacker retreated after X rounds of combat? Do you look at it from both perspectives in those cases or only from the attacker’s one?

    Anyway here is what I calculated for G1 and Allied1

    After G1
    Atlantic/Med: +2.68
    Eastern Front: -4.08
    Total: -1.4

    After Allied1
    EF:- 4.67
    Altantic/Med: 1.07
    Total: -3.60

    Do you get the same results when you calculate it? (I set the run count to only 5000 so I will have some decimals off here and there)


  • @Ragnell804

    But anyways if those numbers are correct than this G1 was worse than I thought. If this game is balanced right now then the odds on Moscow should be below 50%, but I don’t feel that way. I think it will be slightly above just by looking at the TUV difference after G1 (which is my method of guessing the final odds on Moscow).


  • TripleA Turn Summary: Germans round 2

    TripleA Turn Summary for game: Europe Improved

    Game History

    Round: 2
    
        Purchase Units - Germans
            Germans buy 14 infantry; Remaining resources: 1 PUs; 
    
        Combat Move - Germans
            1 infantry moved from Finland to Karelia
            2 fighters moved from Finland to Karelia
            1 submarine moved from North Sea Sea Zone to Celtic Sea Sea Zone
            1 bomber moved from Germany to Celtic Sea Sea Zone
            1 submarine moved from Davis Strait Sea Zone to U.S. Convoy 2 Sea Zone
                  Germans take U.S. Convoy 2 Sea Zone from Americans
            1 battleship and 1 destroyer moved from Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone to Sicilian Sea Sea Zone
            2 infantry moved from Rumania to Ukraine S.S.R.
            3 fighters moved from Rumania to Ukraine S.S.R.
    
        Combat - Germans
            Battle in Celtic Sea Sea Zone
                Germans attack with 1 bomber and 1 submarine
                British defend with 1 destroyer
                    Germans roll dice for 1 submarine in Celtic Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                    Germans roll dice for 1 bomber in Celtic Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0,67 expected hits
                    British roll dice for 1 destroyer in Celtic Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0,50 expected hits
                    Germans roll dice for 1 submarine in Celtic Sea Sea Zone, round 3 : 1/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                    British roll dice for 1 destroyer in Celtic Sea Sea Zone, round 3 : 0/1 hits, 0,50 expected hits
                    1 destroyer owned by the British lost in Celtic Sea Sea Zone
                Germans win with 1 bomber and 1 submarine remaining. Battle score for attacker is 12
                Casualties for British: 1 destroyer
            Battle in Karelia
                Germans attack with 2 fighters and 1 infantry
                Russians defend with 1 infantry
                    Germans roll dice for 2 fighters and 1 infantry in Karelia, round 2 : 0/3 hits, 1,17 expected hits
                    Russians roll dice for 1 infantry in Karelia, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                    1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Karelia
                2 fighters owned by the Germans retreated
                Russians win with 1 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is -3
                Casualties for Germans: 1 infantry
            Battle in Ukraine S.S.R.
                Germans attack with 3 fighters and 2 infantry
                Russians defend with 1 infantry
                    Germans roll dice for 3 fighters and 2 infantry in Ukraine S.S.R., round 2 : 3/5 hits, 1,83 expected hits
                    Russians roll dice for 1 infantry in Ukraine S.S.R., round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                    1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Ukraine S.S.R.
                Germans win, taking Ukraine S.S.R. from Russians with 3 fighters and 2 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
                Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry
            Battle in Sicilian Sea Sea Zone
                Germans attack with 1 battleship and 1 destroyer
                British defend with 1 transport
                    Germans roll dice for 1 battleship and 1 destroyer in Sicilian Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 2/2 hits, 1,17 expected hits
                    British roll dice for 1 transport in Sicilian Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0,17 expected hits
                    1 transport owned by the British lost in Sicilian Sea Sea Zone
                Germans win with 1 battleship and 1 destroyer remaining. Battle score for attacker is 8
                Casualties for British: 1 transport
    
        Non Combat Move - Germans
            1 infantry moved from Gibraltar to Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone
            1 artillery and 2 infantry moved from Hungary to Bessarabia
            2 artilleries and 3 infantry moved from Yugoslavia to Hungary
            2 armour moved from Northern Italy to Hungary
            3 infantry moved from Northern Italy to Yugoslavia
            3 armour moved from East Poland to Hungary
            2 armour moved from Poland to Hungary
            1 armour moved from Baltic States to Hungary
            2 armour moved from Germany to Hungary
            1 infantry moved from Poland to Baltic States
            1 infantry moved from Poland to East Poland
            20 infantry moved from Germany to Poland
            3 fighters moved from Ukraine S.S.R. to Germany
            1 transport moved from Baltic Sea Sea Zone to Danish Sea Sea Zone
            1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Netherlands-Belgium to Danish Sea Sea Zone
            1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from Danish Sea Sea Zone to Baltic Sea Sea Zone
            1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Baltic Sea Sea Zone to Poland
            2 fighters moved from Karelia to Finland
            1 bomber moved from Celtic Sea Sea Zone to Germany
            2 infantry moved from Netherlands-Belgium to Germany
            1 infantry and 1 transport moved from Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone to Sicilian Sea Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from Sicilian Sea Sea Zone to Southern Italy
            1 aaGun moved from Austria to Germany
    
        Place Units - Germans
            14 infantry placed in Germany
    
        Turn Complete - Germans
            Germans collect 43 PUs; end with 44 PUs
    

    Combat Hit Differential Summary :

    Russians regular : 0,33
    Germans regular : 0,50
    British regular : -1,17
    

    Savegame


  • @VictoryFirst
    yeah youre on the right track. I align the battle calculator to what actually happened. So if someone fought two rounds on the east front and retreated, I set the calc to a two round strafe and in that case compare average pieces left over for both sides.

    In a battle that is 92% attacker win and the attacker wins, I go off average attacker pieces left.

    In a battle that is 92% and the attacker loses, I go off average pieces left over for both sides.

    I’ll make a short video critique of this first turn and demonstrate how I do the calculations at the same time if I can find some time tomorrow.


  • @VictoryFirst

    Game History

    Round: 2
    
        Purchase Units - Russians
            Russians buy 7 infantry; Remaining resources: 1 PUs; 
    
        Combat Move - Russians
            1 infantry moved from Caucasus to Ukraine S.S.R.
            1 infantry moved from Stalingrad to Ukraine S.S.R.
            1 bomber moved from Belorussia to Ukraine S.S.R.
            2 infantry moved from Leningrad to Baltic States
            1 fighter moved from Leningrad to Baltic States
            1 infantry moved from Stalingrad to Ukraine S.S.R.
    
        Combat - Russians
            Battle in Ukraine S.S.R.
                Russians attack with 1 bomber and 3 infantry
                Germans defend with 2 infantry
                    Russians roll dice for 1 bomber and 3 infantry in Ukraine S.S.R., round 2 : 2/4 hits, 1.17 expected hits
                    Germans roll dice for 2 infantry in Ukraine S.S.R., round 2 : 1/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                    1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Ukraine S.S.R.
                    2 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Ukraine S.S.R.
                Russians win, taking Ukraine S.S.R. from Germans with 1 bomber and 2 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
                Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry
                Casualties for Germans: 2 infantry
            Battle in Baltic States
                Russians attack with 1 fighter and 2 infantry
                Germans defend with 1 infantry
                    Russians roll dice for 1 fighter and 2 infantry in Baltic States, round 2 : 0/3 hits, 0.83 expected hits
                    Germans roll dice for 1 infantry in Baltic States, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                    Russians roll dice for 1 fighter and 2 infantry in Baltic States, round 3 : 1/3 hits, 0.83 expected hits
                    Germans roll dice for 1 infantry in Baltic States, round 3 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                    1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Baltic States
                Russians win, taking Baltic States from Germans with 1 fighter and 2 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
                Casualties for Germans: 1 infantry
    
        Non Combat Move - Russians
            1 fighter moved from Baltic States to Leningrad
            1 artillery and 5 infantry moved from Russia to Belorussia
            1 bomber moved from Ukraine S.S.R. to Leningrad
            13 infantry moved from Leningrad to Belorussia
            2 armour moved from Belorussia to Leningrad
            1 artillery moved from Leningrad to Belorussia
            1 aaGun moved from Russia to Moscow
            1 submarine moved from Norwegian Sea Sea Zone to Danish Sea Sea Zone
            1 transport moved from North Atlantic Sea Zone to Davis Strait Sea Zone
    
        Place Units - Russians
            7 infantry placed in Leningrad
    
        Turn Complete - Russians
            Russians collect 23 PUs; end with 24 PUs
    

    Combat Hit Differential Summary :

    Germans regular : -0.33
    Russians regular : 0.17
    

  • @VictoryFirst

    Game History

    Round: 2
    
        Purchase Units - British
            British buy 2 transports; Remaining resources: 1 PUs; 
    
        Combat Move - British
            1 bomber moved from United Kingdom to Sicilian Sea Sea Zone
            1 destroyer moved from Eastern Mediterranean Sea Zone to Sicilian Sea Sea Zone
            1 fighter moved from Syria to Sicilian Sea Sea Zone
            1 destroyer moved from Davis Strait Sea Zone to British Convoy 4 Sea Zone
                  British take British Convoy 4 Sea Zone from Germans
            1 destroyer moved from British Convoy 4 Sea Zone to Halifax Sea Sea Zone
            1 destroyer moved from Davis Strait Sea Zone to Celtic Sea Sea Zone
            2 fighters moved from United Kingdom to Celtic Sea Sea Zone
    
        Combat - British
            Battle in Sicilian Sea Sea Zone
                British attack with 1 bomber, 1 destroyer and 1 fighter
                Germans defend with 1 battleship, 1 destroyer and 1 transport
                    British roll dice for 1 bomber, 1 destroyer and 1 fighter in Sicilian Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 3/3 hits, 1.67 expected hits
                Units damaged: 1 battleship owned by the Germans
                    Germans roll dice for 1 battleship, 1 destroyer and 1 transport in Sicilian Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 2/3 hits, 1.33 expected hits
                    1 destroyer owned by the British and 1 fighter owned by the British lost in Sicilian Sea Sea Zone
                    1 destroyer owned by the Germans and 1 transport owned by the Germans lost in Sicilian Sea Sea Zone
                    British roll dice for 1 bomber in Sicilian Sea Sea Zone, round 3 : 1/1 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                    Germans roll dice for 1 battleship in Sicilian Sea Sea Zone, round 3 : 1/1 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                    1 bomber owned by the British lost in Sicilian Sea Sea Zone
                    1 battleship owned by the Germans lost in Sicilian Sea Sea Zone
                Germans win with no units remaining. Battle score for attacker is 5
                Casualties for British: 1 bomber, 1 destroyer and 1 fighter
                Casualties for Germans: 1 battleship, 1 destroyer and 1 transport
            Battle in Celtic Sea Sea Zone
                British attack with 1 destroyer and 2 fighters
                Germans defend with 1 submarine
                    British roll dice for 1 destroyer and 2 fighters in Celtic Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 2/3 hits, 1.50 expected hits
                    Germans roll dice for 1 submarine in Celtic Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                    1 destroyer owned by the British lost in Celtic Sea Sea Zone
                    1 submarine owned by the Germans lost in Celtic Sea Sea Zone
                British win with 2 fighters remaining. Battle score for attacker is -4
                Casualties for British: 1 destroyer
                Casualties for Germans: 1 submarine
    
        Non Combat Move - British
            2 fighters moved from Celtic Sea Sea Zone to United Kingdom
    
        Place Units - British
            1 transport placed in Davis Strait Sea Zone
            1 transport placed in Celtic Sea Sea Zone
            Turning on Edit Mode
            EDIT: Changing ownership of Tunisia from Germans to British
            EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode
            Turning on Edit Mode
            EDIT: Adding units owned by British to Caucasus: 2 infantry
            EDIT: Removing units owned by British from Iran: 1 infantry
            EDIT: Removing units owned by British from Syria: 1 infantry
            EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode
    
        Turn Complete - British
            British collect 22 PUs; end with 23 PUs
    

    Combat Hit Differential Summary :

    Germans regular : 1.67
    British regular : 2.17
    

  • @The_Good_Captain

    Game History

    Round: 2
    
        Purchase Units - Americans
            Americans buy 1 destroyer, 4 infantry and 2 transports; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 
    
        Combat Move - Americans
            1 destroyer moved from Davis Strait Sea Zone to U.S. Convoy 2 Sea Zone
            1 destroyer moved from U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone to British Convoy 3 Sea Zone
                  British take British Convoy 3 Sea Zone from Germans
            1 bomber moved from United Kingdom to U.S. Convoy 2 Sea Zone
            1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from United States to U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone
            1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone to South Atlantic Sea Zone
            1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from South Atlantic Sea Zone to Morocco
                  Americans take Morocco from Germans
    
        Combat - Americans
            Battle in U.S. Convoy 2 Sea Zone
                Americans attack with 1 bomber and 1 destroyer
                Germans defend with 1 submarine
                    Americans roll dice for 1 bomber and 1 destroyer in U.S. Convoy 2 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/2 hits, 1.17 expected hits
                    Germans roll dice for 1 submarine in U.S. Convoy 2 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                    1 destroyer owned by the Americans lost in U.S. Convoy 2 Sea Zone
                    1 submarine owned by the Germans lost in U.S. Convoy 2 Sea Zone
                Americans win with 1 bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is -4
                Casualties for Americans: 1 destroyer
                Casualties for Germans: 1 submarine
    
        Non Combat Move - Americans
            1 destroyer moved from U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone to Celtic Sea Sea Zone
            1 bomber moved from U.S. Convoy 2 Sea Zone to United Kingdom
            1 fighter moved from Iceland to United Kingdom
            1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from United States to U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone
            1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone to Celtic Sea Sea Zone
            1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Celtic Sea Sea Zone to United Kingdom
    
        Place Units - Americans
            1 destroyer and 2 transports placed in U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone
            4 infantry placed in United States
    
        Turn Complete - Americans
            Americans collect 35 PUs; end with 35 PUs
    

    Combat Hit Differential Summary :

    Americans regular : -0.17
    Germans regular : 0.67
    

    Allies 2.tsvg

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