Forgot to check the box for dice stats. Make sure you check the box on your end before posting the summary.
Combat Hit Differential Summary :
Russians regular : 2.33 Germans regular : -0.17 Russians AA : 0.67 British regular : 2.67TGC (Allies) vs. SBY (German) VF test game #2
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End of round 3, game aggregate dice results:
Allies: -9.53 actual, -18.5 low luck, +0 reinforcements
Axis: +0.64 actual, -0.66 low luck, +4 reinforcements -
End of round 4, game aggregate dice results:
Allies: -3.53 actual, -13.66 low luck, +3 reinforcements
Axis: +3.09 actual, +1.83 low luck, +2 reinforcements -
End of round 5, game aggregate dice results:
Allies: +0.71 actual, -10.16 low luck, +3 reinforcements
Axis: +1.21 actual, -0.33 low luck, -1 reinforcements*this is a perfect example of the low luck lie (notice the difference between the allied dice using low luck and what it “actually” should be (when dividing 1’s by eight)
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End of round 6, game aggregate dice results:
Allies: +3.21 actual, -7.83 low luck, +3 reinforcements
Axis: -2.37 actual, -4.33 low luck, -1 reinforcementsOkay, I figured out what happened. Just a sec…
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The Germans were subjected to 95 strafe rolls (93 of which you rolled - you missed a pair of infantry rolling for a second fighter on turn 2 it looks like). The Allies scored 17 hits in those 93 rolls (+1.5 Low Luck and +5.375 Actual Luck). So the strafe rolls over performed and the strafes are not a ‘normal’ loss like fighting in a battle. It’s much the same as having a submarine eliminate a unit before a naval battle - strafes make units disappear not even to be used as soak casualties.
In the fewest amount of words, the Allies rolled warm/hot on their strafes and this compensated for an abysmal first two turns. The dice in general slowly walked back in favor of the allies in the mid game but the strafes were critical.
I feel that the Germans should be looking to accept somewhere between 60-80 strafes in a game whereas the allies are trying to score about 100 strafe rolls off the Germans.
Luck had a lot to do with it but the Germans might benefit from dialing it back a hair and being slightly more selective on when/where to eat strafe rolls. So something between this game and your last few is probably what you’re looking for in terms of strafes. Not close to zero but not 93 either.
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The way I would think about this game specifically is this. If it’s turn two and I know (or feel) that the Allies have been getting kicked in the teeth, I am going to play VERY conservative. I don’t want the allies to have any strafes. I will stack and mass and move where I can but I’m already sitting on a win with allies at -20 so I don’t want to give them any opportunities.
Now, lets say the opposite: the Allies have rolled +10 or I feel they are kicking ass and I’m the Germans. Now I feel that I am willing to eat strafes or take some risk to try to regain the initiative. Things look pretty bleak, so lets make some moves with mild risk and a decent return on investment if they work out.
I call it ‘moderating the risk profile’. Become more conservative if you are/feel you’re winning. Become more accepting of risky moves if you are/feel you’re on the back foot.
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Thank you so much!
So your dice results don’t include strafe rolls for the Allies? Or do you just mean that strafe rolls are special, so they should be “weighted” compared to the other Allied rolls?
Thanks for the “number of strafes” reccommendation.
Your “moderating the risk profile” thing reminds of what AndrewAAGamer said in his Global 1940 essays, where he said that better players shouldn’t take risks since they’re likely to win anyway (and the opposite is true for weaker players). I guess it apllies to dice rolls as well. Thanks for that!
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All dice results include strafe rolls. The low luck results are just adding up all the pips and dividing by six.
The ‘actual’ dice are where I add up all the "1"s and divide by 8. Anything that hits at two or three is added up and divided by six separately and then all results are added into a single number. The ‘actual’ dice method of recording appears to be more ‘accurate’ in that the numbers are typically closer to zero at the end of games of D-Day than Low Luck which is usually pretty off the mark comparatively (again: this is more useful in D-Day given the piece count restriction and prevalence of units that hit at 1).
Where I vehemently disagree with Andrew is exactly where you mentioned. I have played only one game with him (before I knew anything about him) and was appalled that he will essentially never takes a chance outside of anything that’s less than 90 something percent or better (if that). If you know he wont attack you even at 75% for example then you can simply putt around the map and give him huge opportunities he will not take. This converts to tempo and reach on the board and you can just take stuff without fear of counterattack. One of the more bizarre Axis and Allies players imo. But if it works for him, all good. He is incredibly adept using a battle calculator.
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Thanks for clarifying how you calculate the dice results. Why do you still show the Low Luck dice results? To show the difference?
To be honest, when I play against myself I usually only attack when there’s a 90+% chance, following his advice. It works fine when both sides operate this way. Still, sometimes what happens is that as the Soviets I put a stack that has a 75% chance to be destroyed by the Germans, knowing that I normally wouldn’t attack. Of course, Germany then attacks and succeeds, leading to crushing defeats against myself.
When I play with other people I obviously have to be a bit more aggressive and am willing to accept 80+% odds for important opportunities.
Keep in mind he did say that he does take big risks if he that’s the only way to win the game (he mentioned that in one game he had only a 48% chance of taking Moscow and that after the IJN suffered crippling casualties he knew it was his only chance of winning. He made the attack and succeeded).
By the way, who won in that game? Which version was it?
Thank you for the advice!
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@SuperbattleshipYamato said in TGC (Allies) vs. SBY (German) VF test game #2:
Thanks for clarifying how you calculate the dice results. Why do you still show the Low Luck dice results? To show the difference?
Two reasons. 1) I’m always curious to see how consistent my theory is to actual outcomes. 2) Low Luck is more relatable to the average axis and allies player.
Keep in mind he did say that he does take big risks if he that’s the only way to win the game (he mentioned that in one game he had only a 48% chance of taking Moscow and that after the IJN suffered crippling casualties he knew it was his only chance of winning. He made the attack and succeeded).
huh - my experience was not that. He gave up multiple battles at 80% (or near that) even when he was on the way out. Maybe he was planning to do something eventually bc the way it ended…
By the way, who won in that game? Which version was it?
Anniversary '41 setup that went to turn 25 or 26 and I missed a can opener in the Pacific in which he risked a pair of German bombers to remove a destroyer allowing the Japanese fleet to hit a good chunk of the USA fleet at great odds. This was totally avoidable as the allies by just taking the adjacent Island but I missed that the bombers could do that so I offered a conditional resignation which he turned down (I told him I would concede if we could continue the game outside of the tournament without the mistake) so I just conceded. If I had known who he was at the time, I would have taken the game far more seriously (and likely wouldn’t have conceded at all). He said he really only plays tournaments and he had no problem saying I was the better player, etc. He was on his way out until that mistake and I really wanted to see what his end game comments were going to be after it was all over because he just never deviated from taking NO risk and I was using that against him. But he got the tournament win because of the error in spite of his (to me odd) strategy. Of course I can only assert that - but the game still exists here on the forums…
https://www.axisandallies.org/forums/topic/38131/t-aa50-andrewaagamer-x-vs-the_good_captain-l-5/189
Thank you for the advice!
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