Now, let’s assume the fighter missed the Sub on passing. We have 1 SS, 1 BB, 1 AC, 2 FIG, 1 BMB vs 1 AC, 2 FIG, 1 SS. Japan get’s 4 hits on round 1. Allies get 2 hits. That’s 1 damaged BB and one dead sub. Cost 8, Reward 44.
Hmm, this becomes a complicated discussion. A few things here:
I think you meant to say 1 dest as well in the Japan attack force.
1 ss + 1 bb + 1 ac + 2 fig + 1 bmb + 1 dest = 20 dice points = 3 and 1/3 hits
1 ac 2 fig 1 ss = 13 = 2 hits and 1/6 hits
I think the majority of the time you will see the Americans surviving to round 2 to hit with their fighter, incurring 3 hits total, reducing the Japanese force to 2 fig 1 car 1 bb 1 bomb. The Americans are favored to counter Pearl in this case, so the Japanese would likely instead wish to lose their bomber to keep the destroyer alive.
A majority of the time, the sub in Solomons will not survive, making the Japanese attack force that more fragile.
But the Japanese can bring in between 3-4 fighters total, if they really need to. 4 fighters arrive if the Indies carrier moves out east, and 3 is easily achieved just by sending the caroline carrier - the fighter from carolines can land on wake, while a fighter from mainland Japan and 1 from Indies lands on the caroline carrier.
But the Japanese bringing that much force loses out somewhere. Even bringing the BB as proposed, exposes transports to the Allied airforce. You could compensate by bringing the Indies BB/car to SZ60 to defend, but that leaves the Kwang UK fleet alive, which may later link with the US navy.
A reinforced Pearl, especially when the Solomon sub is destroyed, and combined with Russian/UK consolidation about Japanese territories, causes the Japanese to give up something. If they go after Pearl, it is no longer an easy decision, they must give up somewhere else or their attack force isn’t generally strong enough, or they have to lose bombers/a fighter in order to preserve the occupying force from a counterattack.
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