I tried doing the math by hand but I’m very bad with statistics, can someone who is good with statistics proof this strategy? Say you have even odds in a fight your thinking of taking, you win ~50% and you lose ~same IPC overall as opponent. Should you take the fight because attacker can choose to stay or flea vs defense doesn’t? If there are 2 scenarios A) the dice of first round go in your favor or B) the dice go against you and you now have sub 50% and bad IPC then couldn’t you just retreat if B happens and push if A happens? The computer calculating expected losses is doing so under the impression that you stay regardless of outcome so it’s the sum of all negative outcomes + sum of all positives. But if you leave when it goes against you you reduce the sum of negative outcomes partially while I believe reducing the sum of all positive outcomes by less. So you can achieve positive trades from equal fights by having the ability to choose if your going for their full stack or not.
What is going on with Infantry and arty paired to attack??
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The hit rate on this at least from an Axis perspective is non existent, while watching opposing infantry hit at a near 50% hit rate on defense
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How many data points do you have? After a few hundreds of games, I’m at an average of 2 hits per 3 rolls by an Inf paired with an Art.
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@nosho said in What is going on with Infantry and arty paired to attack??:
How many data points do you have? After a few hundreds of games, I’m at an average of 2 hits per 3 rolls by an Inf paired with an Art.
So you’ve created or accessed a program that pulls data from player games, and used that program to record “a few hundreds of games” worth of data?
Perhaps you’d share access to that program and/or dataset.
If you do actually have such a program but elect not to share it, that’s your business. But for purposes of discussion you understand absent such proofs you’re asking others to take you at your word.
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@aardvarkpepper Recording the hits from my own games, of which I have hundreds. The PNRG is decent, our human brains aren’t in the face of randomness.
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@aardvarkpepper said in What is going on with Infantry and arty paired to attack??:
But for purposes of discussion you understand absent such proofs you’re asking others to take you at your word.
Indeed, that is the expectation here, but we’ve beaten that dead horse plenty in another thread. Just like with anything else in the world of rational people, the burden of proof always lies with the person making claims going against the currently accepted/demonstrated knowledge, wisdom, or theories (in this case, the claim is that PNRG is departing from randomness in noticeable, predictable and persistent patterns).
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So no program, no data, accepts no responsibility for doing any sort of work, just undermining others’ arguments with only “it must be right therefore it’s right”.
That isn’t “the world of rational people”, as you put it. That is the world of rationalizing people, though.
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@aardvarkpepper said in What is going on with Infantry and arty paired to attack??:
So no program, no data, accepts no responsibility for doing any sort of work, just undermining others’ arguments with only “it must be right therefore it’s right”.
That isn’t “the world of rational people”, as you put it. That is the world of rationalizing people, though.
The average value of thousands of rolls, for each units, averages 3.5, I’m not too sure what more you want.
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@nosho said in What is going on with Infantry and arty paired to attack??:
The average value of thousands of rolls, for each units, averages 3.5, I’m not too sure what more you want.
The. Data.
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@aardvarkpepper said in What is going on with Infantry and arty paired to attack??:
@nosho said in What is going on with Infantry and arty paired to attack??:
The average value of thousands of rolls, for each units, averages 3.5, I’m not too sure what more you want.
The. Data.
Weird how people who claim PNRG is noticeably not random don’t need data to convince you, even though the burden of proof is on them, but me claiming the already know fact that PNRG is close-enough to perfect randomness for most practical purposes, including this game, need to show you data.
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@nosho said in What is going on with Infantry and arty paired to attack??:
Weird how people who claim PNRG is noticeably not random don’t need data to convince you
Since that isn’t my position at all, I’ll let you get on with arguing with yourself.
@nosho said in What is going on with Infantry and arty paired to attack??:
even though the burden of proof is on them
Which, again, it isn’t.
@nosho said in What is going on with Infantry and arty paired to attack??:
, but me claiming the already know fact that PNRG is close-enough to perfect randomness for most practical purposes, including this game, need to show you data.
Using your own method of argument that “data” is clearly fabricated.
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Topic locked. You guys have already been told to discuss that by PM.
Reference:
https://www.axisandallies.org/forums/post/1470730
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