19L CHAMPIONSHIP: axis-dominion vs adam (allies+19) bm3

TripleA Manual Gamesave Post: Germans round 26

TripleA Manual Gamesave Post for game: World War II Global 1940 Balanced Mod3, version: 3.4

Game History

Round: 26

    Research Technology - Germans

    Purchase Units - Germans
        Germans buy 15 infantry, 2 marines, 5 mech_infantrys and 1 submarine; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Germans
        2 mech_infantrys moved from Kazakhstan to Turkey
        2 bombers moved from Volgograd to Turkey
        1 bomber moved from Western Germany to Turkey
        5 bombers moved from Western Germany to United Kingdom
        1 mech_infantry moved from Slovakia Hungary to Yugoslavia
              Germans take Yugoslavia from Russians
        1 marine moved from Novgorod to 115 Sea Zone
        1 marine moved from 115 Sea Zone to Sweden
        1 marine moved from Novgorod to 115 Sea Zone
        1 marine moved from 115 Sea Zone to Finland
        1 mech_infantry moved from Novgorod to Finland
        3 tactical_bombers moved from 115 Sea Zone to Finland
        3 fighters moved from 115 Sea Zone to Finland
        4 fighters and 3 tactical_bombers moved from 115 Sea Zone to Sweden
        3 armour and 3 mech_infantrys moved from Slovakia Hungary to Romania
        3 armour and 3 mech_infantrys moved from Romania to Bulgaria

    Combat - Germans
        Air Battle in United Kingdom
            Germans attacks with 5 units heading to United Kingdom
            Air Battle is over, the remaining bombers go on to their targets
        Strategic bombing raid in United Kingdom
                AA fire in United Kingdom : 3/4 hits, 0.67 expected hits
            3 bombers killed by AA
                AA fire in United Kingdom : 0/1 hits, 0.17 expected hits
            Bombing raid in United Kingdom rolls: 6 and causes: 4 damage to unit: airfield
            Bombing raid in United Kingdom rolls: 6 and causes: 6 damage to unit: factory_major
            Bombing raid in United Kingdom causes 10 damage total.  Damaged units is as follows: airfield = 4, factory_major = 6
        Battle in Sweden
            Germans attack with 4 fighters, 1 marine and 3 tactical_bombers
            Americans defend with 1 infantry
                Germans roll dice for 1 cruiser in Sweden, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.50 expected hits
                Americans roll dice for 1 infantry in Sweden, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Americans lost in Sweden
            Germans win, taking Sweden from Americans with 4 fighters, 1 marine and 3 tactical_bombers remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
            Casualties for Americans: 1 infantry
        Battle in Turkey
            Germans attack with 3 bombers and 2 mech_infantrys
            Americans defend with 2 infantry
                Germans roll dice for 3 bombers and 2 mech_infantrys in Turkey, round 2 : 3/5 hits, 2.33 expected hits
                Americans roll dice for 2 infantry in Turkey, round 2 : 2/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                2 infantry owned by the Americans and 2 mech_infantrys owned by the Germans lost in Turkey
            Germans win with 3 bombers remaining. Battle score for attacker is -2
            Casualties for Germans: 2 mech_infantrys
            Casualties for Americans: 2 infantry
        Battle in Finland
            Germans attack with 3 fighters, 1 marine, 1 mech_infantry and 3 tactical_bombers
            Americans defend with 1 infantry
                Germans roll dice for 1 battleship in Finland, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 3 fighters, 1 marine, 1 mech_infantry and 3 tactical_bombers in Finland, round 2 : 4/8 hits, 4.00 expected hits
                Americans roll dice for 1 infantry in Finland, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Americans and 1 mech_infantry owned by the Germans lost in Finland
            Germans win, taking Finland from Americans with 3 fighters, 1 marine and 3 tactical_bombers remaining. Battle score for attacker is -1
            Casualties for Germans: 1 mech_infantry
            Casualties for Americans: 1 infantry
        Battle in Bulgaria
            Germans attack with 3 armour and 3 mech_infantrys
            Russians defend with 1 infantry
                Germans roll dice for 3 armour and 3 mech_infantrys in Bulgaria, round 2 : 0/6 hits, 2.00 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 1 infantry in Bulgaria, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 mech_infantry owned by the Germans lost in Bulgaria
                Germans roll dice for 3 armour and 2 mech_infantrys in Bulgaria, round 3 : 2/5 hits, 1.83 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 1 infantry in Bulgaria, round 3 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Russians and 1 mech_infantry owned by the Germans lost in Bulgaria
            Germans win, taking Bulgaria from Russians with 3 armour and 1 mech_infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is -5
            Casualties for Germans: 2 mech_infantrys
            Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry
        Cleaning up after air battles

    Non Combat Move - Germans

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Germans : -1.33
Americans : 1.67
Russians : 1.33
AA fire in United Kingdom : : 2.17

Savegame

3/6 aa hit in London, and bad luck in the other battles, good time to call this one.

well done Adam, big congrats on winning this long and hard-fought game and getting crowned 2019 champion!!! and you won the whole tournament as the allies, now that’s an amazing achievement unto itself

@Adam514 said in 19L CHAMPIONSHIP: axis-dominion vs adam (allies+19) bm3:

@axis-dominion Thanks! Very well played, it was very close for many rounds! We saw a lot of different situations in this match lol.

JDOW bid so low I had to take Axis, so it’s actually 1 Axis 2 Allied wins for the playoffs.

ahh yah that’s right, forgot about that one. still, 2 out of 3 as allies is remarkable

and yah was an interesting game, lots of things going on, probably the most interesting was seeing Moscow fall like that. something I can be proud of haha

@Adam514 said in 19L CHAMPIONSHIP: axis-dominion vs adam (allies+19) bm3:

@axis-dominion Thanks! Very well played, it was very close for many rounds! We saw a lot of different situations in this match lol.

JDOW bid so low I had to take Axis, so it’s actually 1 Axis 2 Allied wins for the playoffs.

btw you meant jww, not jdow right?

only eight days, that’s gotta be the fastest championship ever, and yet that’s probably one of our longer games :)

@axis-dominion said in 19L CHAMPIONSHIP: axis-dominion vs adam (allies+19) bm3:

3/6 aa hit in London, and bad luck in the other battles, good time to call this one.

well done Adam, big congrats on winning this long and hard-fought game and getting crowned 2019 champion!!! and you won the whole tournament as the allies, now that’s an amazing achievement unto itself

sorry that was 3/5 hits, wow that’s bad haha

@JDOW said in 19L CHAMPIONSHIP: axis-dominion vs adam (allies+19) bm3:

Congratz Adam to the win and to the championship. Well deserved.

I thought the game was over after 15ish turns but then Stalin went manic and decided to abandon Moscow:D
I thought the Axis had decent winning changes after Moscow fell for good and the remaining troops were massacred at Novosibirsk.

But Adam outgrinded AD. He fought well, too.

I btw believe the game was not lost in Europe but in the Pacific. Japan could have grown faster and could have established a more dominant position in the Pacific.
I believe they had the potential to deny the NOs for Guam and islands around Caro permanently and could have conquered India faster.
If Japan is just 2-3 turns faster and permanently denies 10 IPC for US every turn, they could have reached that size that makes it hard for the Allies to ever match, even with 100% Pacific investment from the US. But even then, US may eventually match the Japanes fleet but the Germans will get out of control in that case.

That holiday excursion some rogue Japanese admirals made with significant parts of the Japanese fleet to the Indian Ocean to chase some subs but in the end just to enjoy the weather was a key element to me that turned the tide in the Pacific. The killed subs and denied Indian income did not compensate at all for the strategic shift this caused in the Pacific.
If Japan had either just kept the Allies off instead OR made a power move on India (which was imo always an option), Japan could have reached the critical size.
Also, Japan bought too much fleet early and too few planes. Japan had an overkill of fleet but should have produced more planes and more ground units in the first 6-8 turns to threaten a powermove on India way earlier.
Also I think Japan was obsessively worried about island warfare in the Pacific which I believe they could have afforded and could have invited to let the Allies shoot their bullets.

The main problem in the end was, that Japan hat 100+ IPC sitting in Japan doing nothing till the end of the game
If Japan kept a strategically more dominant position, these 100 IPC would have been placed on the waters on in the air and would thus not make it necessary at all to defend Tokyo that hard and thus, had an impact to maintain Pacific dominance.

Regarding the bid: Axis had very favorable G1 and J1 dice and thus almost nullified the bid.

If I knew the dice outcome till J1, I would have preferred the Axis without hesitation.

thank you for sharing your thoughtful analysis, with many good points. i agree and am quite regretful of having moved a portion of my navy all the way over to sz80. I don’t regret chasing down and killing those Anzac subs and going as far as sz39 (india), which is still not too far out of range, I just really regret going any further away. definitely not well thought out. I guess I still felt like I could afford to do that, that Japan was still quite in control. i suppose that’s one of the consequences of playing blitz A&A, as that you’re bound to make some mistakes or even blunders.

I felt Adam’s china was a real pain the whole game, they definitely kept Japan busy on land the whole time.

I have some room to improve as far as my Japanese play, no doubt about it. maybe next year :)

@JDOW said in 19L CHAMPIONSHIP: axis-dominion vs adam (allies+19) bm3:

Congratz Adam to the win and to the championship. Well deserved.

I thought the game was over after 15ish turns but then Stalin went manic and decided to abandon Moscow:D
I thought the Axis had decent winning changes after Moscow fell for good and the remaining troops were massacred at Novosibirsk.

But Adam outgrinded AD. He fought well, too.

I btw believe the game was not lost in Europe but in the Pacific. Japan could have grown faster and could have established a more dominant position in the Pacific.
I believe they had the potential to deny the NOs for Guam and islands around Caro permanently and could have conquered India faster.
If Japan is just 2-3 turns faster and permanently denies 10 IPC for US every turn, they could have reached that size that makes it hard for the Allies to ever match, even with 100% Pacific investment from the US. But even then, US may eventually match the Japanes fleet but the Germans will get out of control in that case.

That holiday excursion some rogue Japanese admirals made with significant parts of the Japanese fleet to the Indian Ocean to chase some subs but in the end just to enjoy the weather was a key element to me that turned the tide in the Pacific. The killed subs and denied Indian income did not compensate at all for the strategic shift this caused in the Pacific.
If Japan had either just kept the Allies off instead OR made a power move on India (which was imo always an option), Japan could have reached the critical size.
Also, Japan bought too much fleet early and too few planes. Japan had an overkill of fleet but should have produced more planes and more ground units in the first 6-8 turns to threaten a powermove on India way earlier.
Also I think Japan was obsessively worried about island warfare in the Pacific which I believe they could have afforded and could have invited to let the Allies shoot their bullets.

The main problem in the end was, that Japan hat 100+ IPC sitting in Japan doing nothing till the end of the game
If Japan kept a strategically more dominant position, these 100 IPC would have been placed on the waters on in the air and would thus not make it necessary at all to defend Tokyo that hard and thus, had an impact to maintain Pacific dominance.

Regarding the bid: Axis had very favorable G1 and J1 dice and thus almost nullified the bid.

If I knew the dice outcome till J1, I would have preferred the Axis without hesitation.

as for the Tokyo home guard toward the end, I still feel I needed that, and it helped free up my Air Force enough so that I wouldn’t lose the DEI, especially Java, which I know Adam was really craving. I do NOT feel that they are just sitting idle doing nothing, as they are serving a great purpose in guarding the capital while also freeing up the Air Force for Asia and island support. Much like infantry in London buys serve a purpose of preventing a late SL while the RAF and navy operate deeper in the med and ME. your point that if I was more dominant, I wouldn’t need the infantry is understood, but at some point when you face a resistant india that doesn’t just back away but instead wants a big fight, you can’t help but face a situation where Tokya becomes vulnerable to a powerful allied threat taking advantage of your airforce needing to go full in to quash the British Indians, which is what I did. a competent player such as Adam will always make you pay for such a conquest, so the tradeoff is inevitable.

@JDOW said in 19L CHAMPIONSHIP: axis-dominion vs adam (allies+19) bm3:

One detail to the Europe map. I did not run numbers at all, but the Italian fleet died quite early to me and despite the AB at Yugo. I am well aware that the AB forced the Allies to go all-in on 97 and thus had to sac AC and 2 figs that could be butchered by the luftwaffe but I still believe this was a good trade for the Allies. I am not entirely sure but at this time point of the game, Italians and Germans usually have options not to make 97 safe but to make an attack more costly for the Allies.

The Italian lockdown looked too easy and too early to me and in case it could have been delayed for 1-2 more turns, I believe this also significantly changes the situation in Europe.

And last but not least, there is this philosophical discussion on whether Germans should have a navy or not and how they game would have went if all those IPC would have invested in ground and air^^

yah maybe I could’ve delayed 97 for a few more turns by purchasing some more Italian fleet. idk, hard to say if it’d be worth it… I really don’t like to waste precious Italian income on a fleet that’s being aggressively targeted and is going nowhere fast and is doomed sooner than later. but maybe there’s value in delaying that and forcing UK to buy more subs and such. I guess I didn’t spend a whole lot of time evaluating which would be better. again this was like blitz A&A haha

@JDOW said in 19L CHAMPIONSHIP: axis-dominion vs adam (allies+19) bm3:

@axis-dominion said in 19L CHAMPIONSHIP: axis-dominion vs adam (allies+19) bm3:

@JDOW said in 19L CHAMPIONSHIP: axis-dominion vs adam (allies+19) bm3:

Congratz Adam to the win and to the championship. Well deserved.

I thought the game was over after 15ish turns but then Stalin went manic and decided to abandon Moscow:D
I thought the Axis had decent winning changes after Moscow fell for good and the remaining troops were massacred at Novosibirsk.

But Adam outgrinded AD. He fought well, too.

I btw believe the game was not lost in Europe but in the Pacific. Japan could have grown faster and could have established a more dominant position in the Pacific.
I believe they had the potential to deny the NOs for Guam and islands around Caro permanently and could have conquered India faster.
If Japan is just 2-3 turns faster and permanently denies 10 IPC for US every turn, they could have reached that size that makes it hard for the Allies to ever match, even with 100% Pacific investment from the US. But even then, US may eventually match the Japanes fleet but the Germans will get out of control in that case.

That holiday excursion some rogue Japanese admirals made with significant parts of the Japanese fleet to the Indian Ocean to chase some subs but in the end just to enjoy the weather was a key element to me that turned the tide in the Pacific. The killed subs and denied Indian income did not compensate at all for the strategic shift this caused in the Pacific.
If Japan had either just kept the Allies off instead OR made a power move on India (which was imo always an option), Japan could have reached the critical size.
Also, Japan bought too much fleet early and too few planes. Japan had an overkill of fleet but should have produced more planes and more ground units in the first 6-8 turns to threaten a powermove on India way earlier.
Also I think Japan was obsessively worried about island warfare in the Pacific which I believe they could have afforded and could have invited to let the Allies shoot their bullets.

The main problem in the end was, that Japan hat 100+ IPC sitting in Japan doing nothing till the end of the game
If Japan kept a strategically more dominant position, these 100 IPC would have been placed on the waters on in the air and would thus not make it necessary at all to defend Tokyo that hard and thus, had an impact to maintain Pacific dominance.

Regarding the bid: Axis had very favorable G1 and J1 dice and thus almost nullified the bid.

If I knew the dice outcome till J1, I would have preferred the Axis without hesitation.

as for the Tokyo home guard toward the end, I still feel I needed that, and it helped free up my Air Force enough so that I wouldn’t lose the DEI, especially Java, which I know Adam was really craving. I do NOT feel that they are just sitting idle doing nothing, as they are serving a great purpose in guarding the capital while also freeing up the Air Force for Asia and island support. Much like infantry in London buys serve a purpose of preventing a late SL while the RAF and navy operate deeper in the med and ME. your point that if I was more dominant, I wouldn’t need the infantry is understood, but at some point when you face a resistant india that doesn’t just back away but instead wants a big fight, you can’t help but face a situation where Tokya becomes vulnerable to a powerful allied threat taking advantage of your airforce needing to go full in to quash the British Indians, which is what I did. a competent player such as Adam will always make you pay for such a conquest, so the tradeoff is inevitable.

My point is: If Japan kept more dominant in the Pacific, there wouldn’t have been a need to build that many idle units in Tokyo.
In theory, Japan always have enough air to bring home in case Allies go for a powermove.
The problem in a dominant position is that Alles have to bring their fleet out of position for a powermove. In this case, Japan can either protect Tokyo or just bring the fleet home.
The problem was that the US fleet was positioned IN position at Guam while threatening Tokyo.

In a hypothetical scenario, Japan had taken India faster, had more planes, had more income, had traded fewer units in attrition battle, the Allies would have never been in the position to place their fleet at Guam. Even with 100% Pacific builds.
In the hypothetical scenario, US would have been at 80 income and Japan had the same income. In the given game, the ratio was 90ish US vs 70ish Japan for too long.
In this scenario the Chinese would have had less room too, as Japan had a few less subs and tacs but more bombers that would have paralyzed the Chinese to a higher extent.

I know this is easier said than done against Adam and you did many good things in this game. Just not enough in the end to overcome Adams grinding style (which is the best strategy against your style^^)

understood, but for the record, I DID have Guam deadzoned, but I had no way of deadzoning or blocking Marianas, which is where he took his stab.