Maxi VS Enigma Winner takes it all:)

@VictoryFirst said in VF (Germany) vs. DoMan (Allies) | Original Europe, Game 6 - Balance 3.0:

(3/6)(3/6)(3/6)(2/6)3 + (3/6)(3/6)(3/6)*(4/6)

That is correct for exactly one hit for just the UK stuff. To add in the USA stuff, it becomes a bit more involved:

UK Force: 3 @ 3, 1 @ 4
US Force: 2 @ 3, 1 @ 4
Total force: 5@3, 2 @ 4

So to expand it, we have:
(ODDS OF 1 @3 HIT * ODDS OF 0 @4 HIT) + (ODDS OF 0 @3 HIT * ODDS OF 1 @4 HIT)
(5*(1/2)^5 * (1/3)^2) + (1/2)^5 * 2*(2/3)(1/3)
.0016/9 + .013889 = .0141 = 1.41%

@DoManMacgee

Game History

Round: 4 Purchase Units - Germans Germans buy 7 armour and 3 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; Combat Move - Germans 1 infantry moved from Rumania to Ukraine S.S.R. Germans take Ukraine S.S.R. from Russians 1 armour moved from Palestine to Iraq Germans take Trans-Jordan from Middle_East Germans take Iraq from Middle_East 1 infantry moved from Libya to Eastern Mediterranean Sea Zone 1 infantry moved from Eastern Mediterranean Sea Zone to Syria Germans take Syria from Middle_East 1 submarine moved from Azores Sea Sea Zone to British Convoy 1 Sea Zone Germans take British Convoy 1 Sea Zone from British 1 submarine moved from British Convoy 1 Sea Zone to South Atlantic Sea Zone 1 submarine moved from Atlantic Sea Zone to British Convoy 4 Sea Zone 1 submarine moved from Denmark Strait Sea Zone to U.S. Convoy 2 Sea Zone Germans take U.S. Convoy 2 Sea Zone from Americans 1 infantry moved from Finland to Karelia Germans take Karelia from Russians 2 artilleries and 28 infantry moved from Poland to Baltic States Combat - Germans Battle in Baltic States Germans attack with 2 artilleries and 28 infantry Russians defend with 1 infantry Germans roll dice for 2 artilleries and 28 infantry in Baltic States, round 2 : 2/30 hits, 5.67 expected hits Russians roll dice for 1 infantry in Baltic States, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits 1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Baltic States Germans win, taking Baltic States from Russians with 2 artilleries and 28 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3 Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry Battle in South Atlantic Sea Zone Germans attack with 1 submarine Americans defend with 1 transport Germans roll dice for 1 submarine in South Atlantic Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits Americans roll dice for 1 transport in South Atlantic Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.17 expected hits Germans roll dice for 1 submarine in South Atlantic Sea Zone, round 3 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits Americans roll dice for 1 transport in South Atlantic Sea Zone, round 3 : 0/1 hits, 0.17 expected hits Germans roll dice for 1 submarine in South Atlantic Sea Zone, round 4 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits Americans roll dice for 1 transport in South Atlantic Sea Zone, round 4 : 0/1 hits, 0.17 expected hits Germans roll dice for 1 submarine in South Atlantic Sea Zone, round 5 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits Americans roll dice for 1 transport in South Atlantic Sea Zone, round 5 : 0/1 hits, 0.17 expected hits Germans roll dice for 1 submarine in South Atlantic Sea Zone, round 6 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits Americans roll dice for 1 transport in South Atlantic Sea Zone, round 6 : 0/1 hits, 0.17 expected hits Germans roll dice for 1 submarine in South Atlantic Sea Zone, round 7 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits Americans roll dice for 1 transport in South Atlantic Sea Zone, round 7 : 0/1 hits, 0.17 expected hits Germans roll dice for 1 submarine in South Atlantic Sea Zone, round 8 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits Americans roll dice for 1 transport in South Atlantic Sea Zone, round 8 : 0/1 hits, 0.17 expected hits Germans roll dice for 1 submarine in South Atlantic Sea Zone, round 9 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits 1 transport owned by the Americans lost in South Atlantic Sea Zone Germans win with 1 submarine remaining. Battle score for attacker is 8 Casualties for Americans: 1 transport Battle in British Convoy 4 Sea Zone Germans attack with 2 submarines Russians defend with 1 submarine Germans roll dice for 2 submarines in British Convoy 4 Sea Zone, round 2 : 2/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits 1 submarine owned by the Russians lost in British Convoy 4 Sea Zone Germans win, taking British Convoy 4 Sea Zone from British with 2 submarines remaining. Battle score for attacker is 8 Casualties for Russians: 1 submarine Non Combat Move - Germans 1 battleship moved from Eastern Mediterranean Sea Zone to Sicilian Sea Sea Zone 1 infantry moved from Bessarabia to East Poland 2 infantry moved from Hungary to Poland 2 infantry moved from Germany to Eastern France 2 fighters moved from Poland to Germany 2 fighters moved from East Poland to Germany 8 armour moved from Germany to Poland 1 armour moved from Germany to Poland 1 bomber moved from Northern Italy to Germany 1 aaGun moved from Austria to Germany 1 aaGun moved from East Poland to Baltic States 12 armour, 8 artilleries and 24 infantry moved from East Poland to Baltic States 2 fighters moved from Germany to Poland 5 infantry moved from Finland to Karelia Place Units - Germans 7 armour and 3 infantry placed in Germany Turn Complete - Germans Germans collect 50 PUs; end with 50 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Americans regular : -1.17 Russians regular : -0.33 Germans regular : -4.00

G4.tsvg

Actually, I’ll just concede it here. There is no way I can put sufficient pressure on Germany at this point. Let’s go again.

TripleA Manual Gamesave Post: UK_Pacific round 4

TripleA Manual Gamesave Post for game: WW2 Path to Victory

Game History

Round: 4 Purchase Units - Americans Americans buy 2 battleships, 2 destroyers, 1 fighter, 1 infantry and 1 submarine; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; Combat Move - Americans 1 bomber moved from Queensland to 50 Sea Zone 1 battleship, 1 destroyer, 1 fighter, 1 submarine and 1 tactical_bomber moved from 65 Sea Zone to 43 Sea Zone 1 armour moved from Morocco to Algeria Americans take Algeria from Neutral_Axis 1 armour moved from Algeria to Tunisia Americans take Tunisia from Italians Combat - Americans Battle in 50 Sea Zone Americans attack with 1 bomber Japanese defend with 1 transport 1 transport owned by the Japanese lost in 50 Sea Zone Americans win with 1 bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 6 Casualties for Japanese: 1 transport Battle in 43 Sea Zone Americans attack with 1 battleship, 1 destroyer, 1 fighter, 1 submarine and 1 tactical_bomber Japanese defend with 1 submarine Americans roll dice for 1 submarine in 43 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits 1 submarine owned by the Japanese lost in 43 Sea Zone Americans win, taking 43 Sea Zone from Neutral with 1 battleship, 1 destroyer, 1 fighter, 1 submarine and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 6 Casualties for Japanese: 1 submarine Non Combat Move - Americans 1 destroyer moved from 65 Sea Zone to 55 Sea Zone 2 marines moved from New Zealand to 65 Sea Zone 1 carrier, 2 cruisers and 2 marines moved from 65 Sea Zone to 43 Sea Zone 2 marines moved from 43 Sea Zone to Java 1 bomber moved from 50 Sea Zone to Hawaiian Islands 2 submarines moved from 11 Sea Zone to 28 Sea Zone 1 transport moved from 28 Sea Zone to 11 Sea Zone 2 fighters moved from Queensland to Java 1 fighter moved from Queensland to Hawaiian Islands 4 carriers, 1 cruiser, 2 destroyers, 8 fighters and 2 transports moved from 93 Sea Zone to 94 Sea Zone 1 destroyer moved from 94 Sea Zone to 98 Sea Zone 1 destroyer moved from 107 Sea Zone to 94 Sea Zone 1 armour, 3 infantry and 2 mech_infantrys moved from Central United States to 104 Sea Zone 1 armour, 1 destroyer, 3 infantry, 2 mech_infantrys and 3 transports moved from 104 Sea Zone to 93 Sea Zone 1 armour, 3 infantry and 2 mech_infantrys moved from 93 Sea Zone to Morocco 1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 marine moved from Gibraltar to 94 Sea Zone 1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 marine moved from 94 Sea Zone to Morocco 2 aaGuns moved from Eastern United States to Central United States Place Units - Americans 1 fighter and 1 infantry placed in Western United States 1 submarine placed in 11 Sea Zone 2 destroyers placed in 104 Sea Zone 2 battleships placed in 104 Sea Zone Turn Complete - Americans Americans collect 53 PUs; end with 53 PUs Trigger Americans 7 North Africa Beach Head: Americans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 58 PUs Objective Americans 1 Homeland: Americans met a national objective for an additional 10 PUs; end with 68 PUs Objective Americans 3 Defense Obligations: Americans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 73 PUs Objective Americans 2 Outer Territories: Americans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 78 PUs Purchase Units - Chinese Trigger Chinese Artillery Supplies: Chinese has their production frontier changed to: productionChinese_Burma_Road_Open Chinese buy 3 artilleries and 1 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; Combat Move - Chinese 6 infantry moved from Hopei to Hunan 8 artilleries and 10 infantry moved from Szechwan to Hunan Combat - Chinese Battle in Hunan Chinese attack with 8 artilleries and 16 infantry Japanese defend with 1 infantry Chinese roll dice for 8 artilleries and 16 infantry in Hunan, round 2 : 8/24 hits, 6.67 expected hits Japanese roll dice for 1 infantry in Hunan, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits 1 infantry owned by the Chinese lost in Hunan 1 infantry owned by the Japanese lost in Hunan Chinese win, taking Hunan from Japanese with 8 artilleries and 15 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0 Casualties for Chinese: 1 infantry Casualties for Japanese: 1 infantry Non Combat Move - Chinese 1 fighter moved from Szechwan to Yunnan Place Units - Chinese 3 artilleries placed in Hunan 1 infantry placed in Yunnan Turn Complete - Chinese Chinese collect 12 PUs; end with 12 PUs Objective Chinese 1 Burma Road: Chinese met a national objective for an additional 3 PUs; end with 15 PUs Purchase Units - British British buy 1 armour, 1 artillery, 1 fighter, 2 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; Purchase Units - UK_Pacific UK_Pacific buy 3 submarines; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; Combat Move - British 1 armour moved from French West Africa to French Central Africa British take French Central Africa from Neutral_Axis 1 armour and 1 mech_infantry moved from Union of South Africa to Belgian Congo British take Belgian Congo from Italians 1 infantry moved from Siam to French Indo China UK_Pacific take French Indo China from Japanese 2 infantry moved from Brazil to French Guiana British take French Guiana from Neutral_Axis Combat - British Non Combat Move - British 1 infantry moved from Union of South Africa to Rhodesia 1 armour, 2 infantry and 1 mech_infantry moved from Iraq to Southern Persia 1 infantry moved from Northeast Persia to Southern Persia 2 artilleries and 1 infantry moved from Eastern India to 40 Sea Zone 2 artilleries, 1 carrier, 1 cruiser, 3 destroyers, 1 fighter, 1 infantry, 1 submarine and 2 transports moved from 40 Sea Zone to 42 Sea Zone 1 artillery, 2 infantry and 1 marine moved from Sumatra to 42 Sea Zone 3 artilleries, 1 battleship, 1 carrier, 2 cruisers, 6 destroyers, 1 fighter, 3 infantry, 1 marine, 2 submarines and 3 transports moved from 42 Sea Zone to 43 Sea Zone 1 tactical_bomber moved from Sumatra to 43 Sea Zone 3 artilleries and 3 infantry moved from 43 Sea Zone to Java 1 carrier moved from 81 Sea Zone to 42 Sea Zone 3 aaGuns, 1 artillery and 6 infantry moved from Burma to Yunnan 1 infantry moved from Shan State to Yunnan 1 infantry moved from Eastern India to Burma 2 fighters moved from Sumatra to Eastern India 1 transport moved from 89 Sea Zone to 88 Sea Zone 2 infantry moved from Brazil to 88 Sea Zone 2 infantry and 1 transport moved from 88 Sea Zone to 89 Sea Zone 2 infantry moved from 89 Sea Zone to French West Africa 1 destroyer moved from 109 Sea Zone to 126 Sea Zone 1 fighter moved from United Kingdom to Iceland 1 bomber moved from United Kingdom to Morocco Place Units - British 1 artillery and 2 infantry placed in Southern Persia 1 armour, 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber placed in Union of South Africa Turn Complete - British British collect 33 PUs; end with 33 PUs Trigger British 3 No Enemy Submarines: British met a national objective for an additional 3 PUs; end with 36 PUs Place Units - UK_Pacific 3 submarines placed in 40 Sea Zone Turn Complete - UK_Pacific UK_Pacific collect 17 PUs; end with 17 PUs Trigger UK Pacific 4 No Enemy Submarines: UK_Pacific met a national objective for an additional 3 PUs; end with 20 PUs Some Units in 40 Sea Zone change ownership: 3 submarines Turning on Edit Mode EDIT: Removing units owned by Americans from 42 Sea Zone: 1 destroyer and 1 submarine EDIT: Adding units owned by Americans to 38 Sea Zone: 1 submarine EDIT: Adding units owned by Americans to 43 Sea Zone: 1 destroyer EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Chinese regular : 1.33 Americans regular : 0.67 Japanese regular : 0.67

Savegame

@The_Good_Captain

FrUK11.tsvg

Game History

Round: 11 Purchase Units - British British buy 2 artilleries and 12 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; Combat Move - British 1 unit repaired. 6 infantry moved from Arabia to Trans-Jordan 14 artilleries, 1 fighter, 24 infantry and 1 tank moved from Mesopotamia to Syrian Desert British take Syrian Desert from Ottomans 6 infantry moved from Persia to Mesopotamia 4 infantry moved from India to SZ 29 4 infantry moved from SZ 29 to Mesopotamia 6 infantry moved from India to Persia 4 infantry moved from London to SZ 9 4 infantry moved from SZ 9 to Picardy Combat - British Battle in Trans-Jordan British attack with 6 infantry AustroHungarians defend with 2 artilleries and 7 infantry British roll dice for 6 infantry in Trans-Jordan, round 2 : 0/6 hits, 2.00 expected hits Ottomans roll dice for 2 artilleries and 7 infantry in Trans-Jordan, round 2 : 4/9 hits, 4.50 expected hits 4 infantry owned by the British lost in Trans-Jordan Ottomans and British reach a stalemate . Battle score for attacker is -12 Casualties for British: 4 infantry Combat Move - British Place Units - British 4 infantry placed in London 2 artilleries and 8 infantry placed in India Turn Complete - British British collect 44 PUs; end with 44 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Ottomans regular : -0.50 British regular : -2.00

TripleA Manual Gamesave Post: Japanese round 5

TripleA Manual Gamesave Post for game: WW2 Path to Victory

Game History

Round: 5 Purchase Units - Japanese Japanese buy 2 artilleries, 2 destroyers, 1 harbour and 8 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 6 SuicideAttackTokens; Combat Move - Japanese 2 infantry and 1 marine moved from Davao to 36 Sea Zone 1 battleship and 1 marine moved from 36 Sea Zone to 47 Sea Zone 1 marine moved from 47 Sea Zone to New Britain 1 battleship, 3 carriers, 3 cruisers, 2 destroyers, 3 fighters, 2 infantry, 1 submarine, 3 tactical_bombers and 1 transport moved from 36 Sea Zone to 55 Sea Zone 2 infantry moved from 55 Sea Zone to New Guinea 1 infantry moved from Shan State to 132 Sea Zone 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 132 Sea Zone to 46 Sea Zone 1 infantry moved from 46 Sea Zone to Dutch New Guinea 1 infantry moved from Shan State to 132 Sea Zone 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 132 Sea Zone to 55 Sea Zone 1 infantry moved from 55 Sea Zone to Solomon Islands 1 destroyer moved from 132 Sea Zone to 20 Sea Zone 2 artilleries and 2 infantry moved from Kiangsu to Kiangsi 1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Hunan to Kwangsi 3 infantry moved from Shan State to Yunnan 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Malaya to Yunnan 1 armour and 1 mech_infantry moved from Southern Manchuria to Jehol 2 artilleries and 6 infantry moved from Southern Manchuria to 20 Sea Zone 2 artilleries, 6 infantry and 4 transports moved from 20 Sea Zone to 37 Sea Zone 1 artillery and 3 infantry moved from 37 Sea Zone to Kwangsi 2 artilleries and 4 infantry moved from Shan State to French Indo China 1 destroyer moved from 6 Sea Zone to 20 Sea Zone 1 submarine moved from 20 Sea Zone to 36 Sea Zone 1 submarine moved from 6 Sea Zone to 36 Sea Zone 1 carrier, 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from 6 Sea Zone to 36 Sea Zone 3 transports moved from 132 Sea Zone to 20 Sea Zone Combat - Japanese Battle in New Britain Battle in Dutch New Guinea Battle in 55 Sea Zone Japanese attack with 1 battleship, 3 carriers, 3 cruisers, 2 destroyers, 3 fighters, 1 submarine, 3 tactical_bombers and 2 transports ANZAC defend with 1 destroyer Japanese roll dice for 1 submarine in 55 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits Japanese roll dice for 1 battleship, 3 carriers, 3 cruisers, 2 destroyers, 3 fighters, 3 tactical_bombers and 2 transports in 55 Sea Zone, round 2 : 5/12 hits, 6.33 expected hits ANZAC roll dice for 1 destroyer in 55 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits 1 destroyer owned by the ANZAC lost in 55 Sea Zone Japanese win, taking New Britain from ANZAC, taking Dutch New Guinea from Dutch, taking 55 Sea Zone from ANZAC with 1 battleship, 3 carriers, 3 cruisers, 2 destroyers, 3 fighters, 1 submarine, 3 tactical_bombers and 2 transports remaining. Battle score for attacker is 8 Casualties for ANZAC: 1 destroyer Battle in Solomon Islands Battle in New Guinea Battle in Kwangsi Japanese attack with 2 artilleries and 4 infantry Chinese defend with 1 infantry Japanese roll dice for 2 artilleries and 4 infantry in Kwangsi, round 2 : 1/6 hits, 1.67 expected hits Chinese roll dice for 1 infantry in Kwangsi, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits 1 infantry owned by the Chinese lost in Kwangsi Japanese win, taking Solomon Islands from ANZAC, taking New Guinea from ANZAC, taking Kwangsi from Chinese with 2 artilleries and 4 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3 Casualties for Chinese: 1 infantry Battle in Yunnan Japanese attack with 1 fighter, 3 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber British defend with 1 infantry; Chinese defend with 1 infantry Japanese roll dice for 1 fighter, 3 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber in Yunnan, round 2 : 3/5 hits, 1.67 expected hits Chinese roll dice for 2 infantry in Yunnan, round 2 : 1/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits 1 infantry owned by the Japanese lost in Yunnan 1 infantry owned by the Chinese and 1 infantry owned by the British lost in Yunnan Japanese win, taking Yunnan from Chinese with 1 fighter, 2 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3 Casualties for Japanese: 1 infantry Casualties for Chinese: 1 infantry Casualties for British: 1 infantry Non Combat Move - Japanese 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Yunnan to French Indo China 1 artillery and 3 infantry moved from 37 Sea Zone to French Indo China 1 aaGun and 6 infantry moved from Southern Manchuria to Jehol Place Units - Japanese 1 artillery, 1 harbour and 2 infantry placed in French Indo China 1 artillery and 2 infantry placed in Malaya 3 infantry placed in Southern Manchuria 1 infantry placed in Japan 2 destroyers placed in 6 Sea Zone Turn Complete - Japanese Japanese collect 56 PUs; end with 56 PUs Objective Japanese 6 Home Islands: Japanese met a national objective for an additional 3 PUs; end with 59 PUs Objective Japanese 4 Control Dutch East Indies: Japanese met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 64 PUs Objective Japanese 2 Strategic Defense Perimeter: Japanese met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 69 PUs Turning on Edit Mode EDIT: Changing ownership of Kweichow from Chinese to Japanese EDIT: Removing units owned by Japanese from Kiangsi: 1 infantry EDIT: Adding units owned by Japanese to Kweichow: 1 infantry EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode Turning on Edit Mode EDIT: Changing PUs for Japanese from 69 to 70 EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Chinese regular : 0.00 Japanese regular : -1.00 ANZAC regular : -0.33

Savegame

@The_Good_Captain

Game History

Round: 11 Purchase Units - Germans Germans buy 1 armour and 9 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; Combat Move - Germans 2 infantry moved from Ukraine S.S.R. to Caucasus 2 fighters moved from Ukraine S.S.R. to Caucasus Combat - Germans Battle in Caucasus Germans attack with 2 fighters and 2 infantry Americans defend with 1 infantry Germans roll dice for 2 fighters and 2 infantry in Caucasus, round 2 : 1/4 hits, 1.33 expected hits Russians roll dice for 1 infantry in Caucasus, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits 1 infantry owned by the Americans lost in Caucasus Germans win, taking Caucasus from Russians with 2 fighters and 2 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3 Casualties for Americans: 1 infantry Non Combat Move - Germans 2 fighters moved from Caucasus to Ukraine S.S.R. 10 infantry moved from East Europe to Ukraine S.S.R. 6 infantry moved from East Europe to Ukraine S.S.R. 1 infantry moved from East Europe to Ukraine S.S.R. 9 infantry moved from Germany to East Europe 1 infantry moved from East Europe to Ukraine S.S.R. 1 infantry moved from East Europe to Ukraine S.S.R. Place Units - Germans 1 armour and 9 infantry placed in Germany Turn Complete - Germans Germans collect 31 PUs; end with 31 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Russians regular : -0.33 Germans regular : -0.33

G11.tsvg

TripleA Turn Summary: French round 13

TripleA Turn Summary for game: WW2 Path to Victory

Game History

Round: 13 Combat Move - ANZAC 1 cruiser moved from 82 Sea Zone to 74 Sea Zone Non Combat Move - ANZAC Combat Move - French Turn Complete - French

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Savegame