I think Japan still would have invaded the Soviet Union though, if the Second Sino-Japanese War continued (the oil embargo only really happened once they invaded Indochina).
Other than that I agree with you. That would be curious alternate reality.
Paul Allen has just added to his collection of famous warships sunk during WWII:
March 20, 2018, 9:43 AM
Philanthropist Paul Allen announces discovery of USS Juneau wreckage
JUNEAU, Alaska – Philanthropist and Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen has announced that wreckage of a sunken military ship on which five brothers died in World War II has been discovered in the South Pacific. A spokeswoman for Allen confirms wreckage from the USS Juneau was found Saturday off the coast of the Solomon Islands. The ship was hit by Japanese torpedoes in 1942, killing hundreds of men, including the five Sullivan brothers from Waterloo, Iowa.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/uss-juneau-wreckage-solomon-islands-south-pacific-paul-allen/
Just saw that. The Sullivan Brother’s ship found on St Patrick’s Day. Too awesome. Thanks CWO.
Here’s another read on it: