Japanese Declaration of War

@Spendo02:

For the record, I’ve yet to see Calcutta saved unless Japan chooses not to pursue it.

Even “optimal” play by the Allies to save Calcutta is a sub-optimal strategy because Europe is almost guaranteed to be lost.  Saving Calcutta is not worth giving up the game in Europe.

I think this is the point Elk is making Simon.

Fair enough, I’m happy to hear your viewpoints and experience. I just have some trouble reconcilling it to my own.

Regarding a J3 attack, no unit produced in Asia can reach by that time. Let’s count the maximum which can reach:
J1 produce 3TT+art, take art from Machuria & Japan, including 2 inf. 4inf+art to Hunnan
Then: Mec + 6inf + 2art arrive from north, 3art+tank+6inf from Japan via Kwansi. Note I am assuming ignoring Kwangtung which is clearly absurd unless there is no DOW J1 or J2.
Total for Japan (up to): 18inf+8art+tank+11ftr+8tb+2sb
I get in Yunnan:
UK: 1ftr 1tb 8inf 1arm 3AAA
China: 17inf 1ftr

Japan wins retaining 1arm+7.33art on average. Interesting. They’ve made some enormous sacrifices to get there though. You could also throw in some Strat bombers produced J2.

EDIT: Left off a few Japanese units

@simon33:

Fair enough, I’m happy to hear your viewpoints and experience. I just have some trouble reconcilling it to my own.

Regarding a J3 attack, no unit produced in Asia can reach by that time. Let’s count the maximum which can reach:
J1 produce 3TT+art, take art from Machuria & Japan, including 2 inf. 4inf+art to Hunnan
Then: Mec + 6inf + 2art arrive from north, 3art+tank+6inf from Japan via Kwansi. Note I am assuming ignoring Kwangtung which is clearly absurd unless there is no DOW J1 or J2.
Total for Japan (up to): 16inf+6art+tank+11ftr+8tb+2sb
I get in Yunnan:
UK: 1ftr 1tb 8inf 1arm 3AAA
China: 17inf 1ftr

Japan wins losing all land units on average. Interesting. They’ve made some enormous sacrifices to get there though. You could also throw in some Strat bombers produced J2.

SIMON: Feel free to critique / address anything I’ve missed. I tried to be as specific and accurate as possible making logical aggressive UK purchases to contest Yunnan.
Lets go through (ignoring alternative issues) the J1 DOW and Yunnan on the ensuing rounds.

China starts with 4 INF on Yunnan.
J1 attack will include
3 INF, 1 ART from Kwangsi
2 SB from Tokyo
1 FTR, 1 TAC from Kiangsu

On average TripleA shows 6.38 of 8 units remaining.  That leaves 1 INF, 1 ART for Japan on Yunnan, or 1 ART.  Depending if you want to round down or up.  I’ve seen it go clean sweep on the first round, and I’ve seen myself end with 1 ART.  I’d suggest typically its 1 INF 1 ART - in my experience.

Now, J1 ends with these units in range for J2 Yunnan
1 INF in Hunan
1 MEC via Manchuria in Anhwe
2 INF in FIC
Total, 4 INF
Japan also has all starting Aircraft less the FTR/TAC in the Carolines and the FTR in Korea (now Tokyo), so 9 FTR, 7 TAC, 2 SB that are in Kwangsi.

Japan took Flip with 3 INF and 3 ART.  Odds are typically 1 INF dies in my experience, so there are 2 INF and 3 ART on Flip that can move to Kwangsi on J2.

Japan also risks losing 1 FTR at each Kwangtung and Hunan as Japan only sends 1 INF in each place from Kiangsi (the other INF/ART are used on Flip).  Odds are low this happens, but it does.  I’ll concede that 1 FTR is lost if that is agreeable?

J1 Also placed 2 TT off Tokyo which will ferry 2 INF, 1 ARM, 1 ART on J2 to FIC; but they aren’t around for J2 Yunnan.  Just wanted to put that out there.

China 1:
China attacks Yunnan with up to 8 INF, 1 FTR.  Odds show China loses 1, so that is 7 INF remaining.  My experience seems to be it tends to be 6 INF more than 7, but we’ll go with 7 to be conservative.

China also gets to place 5 Units, all INF.

UK goes and can move 2 INF into Yunnan and if you want, 2 FTR and 1 TAC.  I’m presuming UK would wait another turn where it could move its 3 AA and its starting INF stack there before committing its aircraft.

All said, J2 Yunnan squares up like this:
China 12 INF
UK 2 INF
vs
Japan 3 INF, 1 MEC, 8 FTR, 7 TAC and 2 SB.  Japan can include the FTR/TAC from the CV in Flip however, so it could be 9/8 FTR and TAC.  I’ll show odds next.

Without Flip or UK Aircraft

In this situation, Japan has to lose 3 Aircraft, 2 FTR and 1 TAC to leave 1 INF remaining.
China then has 1 INF (via Shensi NCM on C1), 1 FTR to reclaim it.  Those odds are “good”, but a Japan could roll to make China choose between a FTR or retaking Yunnan and placing units there.
UK can clearly settle Yunnan henceforth, but not at the numbers you suggest for J3 due to the J2 attack.
I typically make this trade because of the overabundance of aircraft Japan starts with because it puts both the UK and China on their heels going forward.

With Flip Aircraft

Nothing really changes here, more aircraft but you still have the same amount of losses.  It makes it clear the losses are depending on the defenders and Japan has achieved as much of a critical mass as possible.  Same scenario as Standard Yunnan going forward.

With Flip and UK Aircraft

In this scenario, Japan takes 10 total losses.  3 ground units and 7 Aircraft which is 4 more than the standard Yunnan.  Effectively you force Japan to use its FTR from Flip, lose them, and 2 more than the standard.

However, due to the inclusion of the UK FTR, effectively the UK trades 2 FTR and 1 TAC for 4 Japanese FTR.  To me, this is a losing proposition because Japan still has the advantage and you’ve traded out your most expensive and valuable aircraft that you cannot replace easily.

In all three scenarios, it still comes down to China’s ability to reclaim Yunnan with 1 INF and 1 FTR against 1 ART, which is VERY dicey.

Now for J2 positioning:
J2 will NCM 2 INF, 1 ART, 1 ARM from the TT off of Tokyo to FIC
J1 saw 1 INF, 1 ART move from Kiangsu to Kiangsi which now NCM to Kwangsi on J2.
Anhwe had 5 INF, 1 ART from J1 which are unlikely to be harrassed, meaning the are either in Kweichow via combat or NCM to Hunan on J2.
J2 placed 3 MEC on the J1 MIC in either Shantung or Kiangsu which are out of range for Yunnan J3.
All told, Japan now has:
8 INF, 3 ART, 1 ARM in range of Yunnan for J3.
In a best case scenario (for Japan), Japan has 6 FTR, 6 TAC, 2 SB now on FIC.  In a worst case scenario, Japan has 5 FTR, 5 TAC, 2 SB (Flip and UK Aircraft version).
Minors are also placed on both FIC and Kwangtung.

Now onto China 2:
China now has purchased units, which I think is 4 INF and it has the combat battle ahead of itself for Yunnan which, if you stacked like you suggest means there is 1 INF and 1 FTR remaining to reclaim Yunnan.  Assuming you do well, you take Yunnan with 1 INF, land the FTR in Sze and place your 4 INF on Yunnan - leaving 5 INF.

UK 2:
UK 2 could go different ways depending on the UK1 Purchase.  If UK 1 purchased MEC on UK1, it could have 4 MEC in range of Yunnan on the second round.  Assuming you’re intent to contest Yunnan, that means you have 6 INF 1 ART and 3 AA in Burma and have yet to expose your aircraft.

Now, presuming the China 2 scenario goes well for China, that lets the UK walk in with 6 INF, 4 MEC and 3 AA.  It can also land its 2 FTR and 1 TAC.

End of Round two looks like this:

Japan
8 INF, 3 ART, 1 ARM, 6 FTR, 6 TAC, 2 SB

Yunnan
11 INF
4 MEC
1 ART
3 AA
1 TAC
2 FTR

As J3 starts the way J2 ended, Japan now has to conduct the assault - again.

Here are the odds:

Japan takes more heavy losses, losing 15 total units.  However, as Japan brought 12 land based units, and needs 1 to survive, Japan has to trade 4 more aircraft to ensure victory.  At this point, Japan is trading 2 FTR and 2 TAC.  Putting Japan down to 4 FTR, TAC, 2 SB with 1 ARM remaining on Yunnan.

Shoring up positioning for Japan:
NCM 3 MEC from Shantung to Hunan
Place 6 MEC, 3 on Kwangtung MIC and FIC MIC

That puts 9 MEC, 4 FTR, 4 TAC and 2 SB in range of Yunnan for J4.

On China’s turn, it has 2 INF from Suiyayan that have now NCM twice, once to Shensi on C1, and then to Sze on C2.  China can yet again take Yunnan with 2 INF and 1 FTR, likely leaving 1 INF and 1 FTR remaining.  The FTR then can fly somewhere, potentially Burma as it is likely Sze may be under duress at this point.  Maybe not.  I don’t really think it makes a difference at this point.  China I believe can still place 4 INF, possibly 3 depending how northern China went and if Russia has taken Manchuria.  We’ll say worst case scenario China places 4 INF leaving 5 total INF on Yunnan.

On UK’s turn, the UK again is based off of its Round 2 Purchase, which was either 3 MEC or 4 INF.  Nothing is in Burma because MEC were piled onto Yunnan on UK2.  Assuming the purchase was MEC, UK NCM’s the 3 MEC to join the Chinese again in the slaughter.

Round 3 ends up with units in range of Yunnan as follows:
Japan
9 MEC, 4 FTR, 4 TAC, 2 SB

Yunnan
5 INF
3 MEC

J4 Yunnan appears fairly decisive as follows:

This leaves Japan in control of Yunnan with 5 or 6 MEC remaining and no aircraft losses.

Japan placed at least another 6 MEC on FIC/Kwang MIC’s which will shore up the advance going forward for Japan.  If Japan purchased MEC for the MIC on Shangtung on J2, they are also now in range of Yunnan as well.

China is now out of retaliatory options and can choose to buy and place units wherever is left in China, but China has now lost control of the Burma road.

UK now has likely seen its income decrease that it is placing 3 or 4 INF per turn on Calcutta going forward, and Japan now having superior numbers and a supply of units streaming out of MIC, India is poised to fall.

Assuming there was not much issue for Japan claiming DEI while this was going on, Japan could add another 2 INF and 3 ART on Burma to join the 5 or 6 MEC from Yunnan and now the siege is set: Very little income for India, China is in a corner and Japan’s able to pump out ground units at its leisure to take Calcutta or simply convoy India into a corner with no future investment.

Of course, the US, Russia and ANZAC are likely creating new issues, but that is a whole different scenario going forward and impossibly hard to predict other than merits of where to go first and how much to invest.

Pedantry:

• That should be 1-2inf 1art remaining in Yunnan after J1 attack
• China only gets to place 4 inf China1

Note that the Mec from Manchuria can’t make it in J2 unless the Hunnan territory is taken. I’m reading the third inf in the attack on Yunnan J2 is coming from Hunan? If I saw 1 inf in Hunnan I would surely attack it with 1-2inf+ftr unless perhaps all four ground units survived in Yunnan. I guess attacking 3 land units with 6-7 inf might give me some pause. Perhaps that attack on Hunan fails, but you can’t just assume that. I would roll Hunnan first and if the attack fails I might think if I need to accept the loss of Yunnan. I guess claiming Hunan only really means losing 5 planes to claim Yunnan J2.

Assuming the Japanese have the 1 inf on Hunan and 2 on FIC at the start of J2 it would probably happen as you outline. I expect I’d be inclined to strafe Yunnan China1 in that scenario but if the UK can’t take it down it and Japan can land its planes on Yunnan then I think Calcutta would be dead in the water. That’s why I like the idea of Soviet help here.

A couple of other points

• sending the 2SB to Yunnan J1 means letting the UK BB live.
• If the Hunnan attack succeeded, I’d be inclined to move at least the tac bomber to Yunnan UK1. Can also move at least a Mech Inf to Yunnan USSR2. That would increase the Japanese plane losses. I’d probably move some Soviet planes in too. There comes a point that the price is too high for Japan to take Yunnan J2, although it might still strafe it. Is that what you’d do?

Oh, and BTW, thanks for the answer.

@simon33:

Pedantry:

• That should be 1-2inf 1art remaining in Yunnan after J1 attack
  Agreed, I think that is what I said - did I not?  I didn’t include a battle calc for that one, just ran it.  I was also trying to be overly conservative for results for Japan.

• China only gets to place 4 inf China1

Note that the Mec from Manchuria can’t make it in J2 unless the Hunnan territory is taken. I’m reading the third inf in the attack on Yunnan J2 is coming from Hunan? If I saw 1 inf in Hunnan I would surely attack it with 1-2inf+ftr unless perhaps all four ground units survived in Yunnan. I guess attacking 3 land units with 6-7 inf might give me some pause. Perhaps that attack on Hunan fails, but you can’t just assume that. I would roll Hunnan first and if the attack fails I might think if I need to accept the loss of Yunnan. I guess claiming Hunan only really means losing 5 planes to claim Yunnan J2.
Hunan is a certainty to take on J1, it difference is if I have to trade a plane for it or not.  Obviously, I’d prefer not to!  Hunan is a complete gambit.  I’d rather have enough units to take 3 islands in the pacific or I could make it a complete certainty units will be there.  However, if you send 2 INF and a plane to Hunan to attack my lone INF, I’m willing to trade you having 2 less INF in Yunnan because I’m only falling short by 1 unit - which improves my position on J2.  China’s strength is in rolling lots of dice, mine is in rolling dice that hit.  I’ll trade 2 INF out for 2 less INF rolling.  It may translate into an additional plane along the way, but thats the gambit to ensure I have units to take Flip and DEI.

Assuming the Japanese have the 1 inf on Hunan and 2 on FIC at the start of J2 it would probably happen as you outline. I expect I’d be inclined to strafe Yunnan China1 in that scenario but if the UK can’t take it down it and Japan can land its planes on Yunnan then I think Calcutta would be dead in the water. That’s why I like the idea of Soviet help here.

I intentionally left out the Reds which I know you’ve suggested because I wanted to illustrate the China UK effort.  Including Russia likely means I have to give up some DEI for a round because I have to divert units that were on Flip to Kwangsi.

@simon33:

A couple of other points

• sending the 2SB to Yunnan J1 means letting the UK BB live.
  Yes, the cost of doing business in this fashion is letting the UK BB live.  I’m okay with that because the only time it will play a decisive factor is shoring up a combine allied fleet by fleeing to ANZAC.  I’d rather take gains now and worry about the BB later when I have more economic freedom.

• If the Hunnan attack succeeded, I’d be inclined to move at least the tac bomber to Yunnan UK1. Can also move at least a Mech Inf to Yunnan USSR2. That would increase the Japanese plane losses. I’d probably move some Soviet planes in too. There comes a point that the price is too high for Japan to take Yunnan J2, although it might still strafe it. Is that what you’d do?

This is the worst case scenario, too much Russian intervention.  I’ve never faced this type of investment, and only toyed with it once as the Allies - and didn’t go through with it.  I am rather curious - if Russia moves into Yunnan but does not DOW on Japan, how can its units participate in combat in Yunnan?  It doesn’t force a DOW as far as I know?  Personally, if Russia moved into China on R1 I may actually delay a DOW on Western Powers and only DOW on France to get FIC.  I haven’t fully thought that through.

Oh, and BTW, thanks for the answer.

You bet.

Russia has to DOW on Japan to move into China, same as UK. Doesn’t cost anything though. Has no effect on a US DOW for example.

@Top:

Japan considers movement of units into China by any other Allied power as an act of war against it.

FWIW, you said 0-1inf+1art above. Typo perhaps.

2inf 1ftr attacking 1inf take the territory 92%
1inf 1ftr vs 1inf take the territory 53%

Let’s say that 2 units survive J1 in Yunnan. On average, 5 survive
If it’s 3, On average 3-4 survive

I submit that losing 2 dice rolling for a probability of two more planes killed is a great trade for the Allies.

You document fully the scenario that I believe it is worth going to fairly significant effort for the Allies to avoid.

Besides USSR support, the ANZAC fighter starting on Qld can join in for J3, and the two from NZ can join in for J4. (Going via Malaya or Shan State.)

I’ve moved away from inf/mec/art UK1 - 1ftr + 1arm is now my standard buy. The third fighter is needed to defend against SBR. Japan can’t be stopped from conquering the territory on J1, but you can certainly make it very costly to take it J2 even without UK help. By J3, the UK need to be helping out normally.

Here’s how I’d expect it might go. I’m going to assume a J2 DOW because I just can’t get my head around your idea of J1 without taking down the Allied navies.

J1: Buy IC on Shantung, 2TT
Attack:

• Chahar (1inf 1mec 1art),
• Anwhe (7inf 2art),
• Yunnan (2inf 1art 1tb 1ftr 2sb),
• Hunnan (4inf 1art 2tb 2ftr)

2inf 1art 1arm to Kwangsi
Land planes Kwangsi

China1:
Attack Yunnan, land ftr Suiyan
Mobilise in Yunnan, probably leaving 11inf

UK1 Peace:
Buy 1arm 1ftr
NCM 4inf 1art 3AAA to Burma
NCM ftr to India
Land two inf on Sumatra

USSR2: Move Mec Inf to Yunnan
Fly fighter to Amur, Fighter+TB to Yunnan

J2: DOW
Attack Kwangtung from Kiangsi
Attack Philippines
Attack Java
Attack Borneo
Attack Kweichow
Blitz FIC
Attack Yunnan w/6inf 2art 1arm 10ftr 7tb 2sb. Win with 2art 1arm remaining.

The problem is too much has been expended unsuccessfully defending Yunnan.

Alternate - minimal attack on Yunnan China1
4inf 1ftr vs 1inf 1art takes the territory 97%
Leaves 9inf 1ftr in Szechwan

J2: Attack:
Kweichow 7inf 2art 1arm
Yunnan w/5inf 2art planes
FIC 1inf
etc

China2:
9inf 1ftr vs 6units - wins 90%, leaving 4inf
Mobilise 5 inf in Yunnan

UK2 bring in reinforcements

J3: attacking Yunnan:
7inf 2art 1arm 11ftr 8tb 2sb
vs
UK: 6inf 1tb 1ftr 1art 1arm 3AAA
China: 9inf
USSR: 5Mec 1arm 1ftr 1tb

Japan keeps 12 planes if they take the territory, dropping to 8.34 if USSR1 buy includes 3Mec for Stalingrad running straight to Yunnan. Alternatively, let’s say that UK abandons Calcutta to SBR for this turn and the ANZAC plane from Qld also flies in to Yunnan but Japan buys two more SBRs J2. In this alternate scenario, Japan wins 97%, keeping 11.38 planes:

Hmm, assuming this rather maximal Japanese attack on Yunnan, neither strategy quite gets there. Absolute maximum defence on J3 involves buying 3ftr USSR2 in Moscow and flying them to Yunnan USSR3. But that’s more than what is needed. Let’s say you just buy one and also send the other fighter there, with 3mec bought USSR1 in Stalingrad. You could also run the Malaya units up to Yunnan for J3. So max defence is:
UK: 9inf 1tb 3ftr 1art 1arm 3aaa
China: 9inf
USSR: 5mec 1arm 3ftr 1tb
ANZAC: 1inf 1ftr

I’m only suggesting the last one as a thought experiment. It’s clearly not needed.

EDIT: image attachment didn’t work correctly.

I played the strategy you guys suggested here this Sunday for Game 99.  It worked great.

J1DOW
Take Borneo;  guard TT with DD from carolines.
Take phillipines with 2 trans.  Use Carolines Carrier to provide air team.
Attack Yunnan, one survived
Kill UKBB with cruiser, fighter, SB.  Everything survived.
Attack Hong Kong.
Take FIC
MiC on Kiangsu
One TT buy.  Save 7

New UK income, 9.  Only 2 ships.

The only attack I usually make that I didn’t is that I left hunan alone and used the troops on HK.

J2
Build MiC on Manchuria and FIC.
Buy 3 mechs (need to keep some extra money at this point you spent 36)
Attack conservatively in China, cutting the road from Burma instead and being able to attack Burma again from both sea and land (so he didn’t attempt a retake of it)
Invade Malaya with all necessary transports to take it, brining support shots and cover ships.
Invade D New Guinea and bring defending escorts

He lost his destroyer killing my CA, his CA left
His new income is 5 (9 minus 3 from Malaya and 1 from Burma)

J3 take all $$ islands
move part of my fleet back to 6
take Alaska for annoyance value.

At this point, they made a couple of foolish moves–attacking Korea with the Russians and stacking Yunan with 12 guys or so.  I was able to annihilated both stacks, losing a plane or two.

But the takeaways were amazing;

J1 is superior to J2 by far.  You kill a bunch of American stuff, a UK BB, and most importantly, you paralyze UK pac income without strat bombing him and very early.

Strat bombing would have been a poor use of my SBs.  They can get shot, and I’m wrecking my own factory as YG says.

Instead of going over land with a few tanks and getting into a stalemate, or sending my whole fleet that way and leaving japan vulnerable, having 3 MiC’s and one in FiC means most of my army is coming over land.  Even if I can’t kill UKPac on J4 or J5, it was so pressurized he had to abandon it and walk back.  Admittedly, they made some poor moves and didn’t dedicate much to stopping me, but I feel like the mix of land-produced units and not SBing Bombay leads to a dramatically more flexible japan game J1.

I’m guessing you also went into Shan State to get the UKPac income down to 9 after J1?

I don’t know what you mean about SBR on Calcutta wrecking the Japanese factories?

I’ve never noticed that the fighter on Formosa can get in to the UK BB. Good move.

FWIW, my counter to that as allies would have been something like:

• Stack Yunnan with up to 14 inf China1
• Attack Shan State UK1
• Move India starting troops to Burma UK1
• UK1 buy 1ftr 1arm (my standard)
• China2, 5 more inf on Yunnan, perhaps less 1-2 from attacking somewhere or buying art instead + the fighter.
• Possible Malaya evac turn 1
• Still land on Sumatra with 2inf UK1

UK2 you can move 3-6inf 1art 3aaa 1TB 1ftr to Yunnan and likely retake Malaya
ANZAC2 1ftr to India, 2ftr to Shan State/Malaya

How would that have gone? Perhaps I’m missing something but I can’t see a J2 attack on Yunnan. J3 I don’t reckon you could win with acceptable losses.