I originally had it set to all three, but one of the players I tested it with made a very compelling case for limiting to Normandy/France, both for historic and gameplay reasons:
Historic Perspective: the entire Vichy arrangement was based on a quid pro quo between France and Germany, whereby in exchange for France’s “armed neutrality” in the war (read “active collaboration”), France was permitted to remain an ostensibly independent nation, with the seat of government in Southern France. This arrangement obviously would not have materialized if Germany simply conquered the entire country from the get go (for example, so that it could make immediate use of France’s mediterranean ports).
Gameplay Perspective: Requiring Southern France’s independence as a condition of the “Vichy French” trigger actually helps Axis, by giving them a strategic choice–i.e., Germany can elect to forgo the Vichy French arrangement altogether simply by conquering Southern France before or in the same round as it conquers France/Normandy.
After a couple of play-tests, the “Vichy France” arrangement has shown to be a decidedly mixed bag for Axis. On the one hand, it does give Axis additional units and less opposition in Northern Africa/Mid East. It also makes Italy’s National Objectives much easier to accomplish, since the game reads “Pro-Axis Neutral” control as “Axis” control for purposes of the North Africa objective. Another less-obvious benefit is the elimination of the Morocco landing spot, should allies need to liberate Gibraltar. So the short term gains are substantial.
On the other hand, there is a long term cost, since all Vichy territories become easy Allied targets, creating a potential production boost for Allies of 8 PUs. This includes territories such as Madagascar, French West/Central/Equatorial Africa, that are extremely difficult for Axis to contest.
So, from a gameplay perspective, the Axis player should be given a choice. Maybe he wants to focus on Russia instead of worrying about French colonies in North Africa. Maybe he wants to make immediate/direct use of Southern France’s facilities instead of pretending to respect France’s independence under an Armistice. The Vichy French arrangement is even more problematic if Japan wants to declare war early. Making Southern France the linchpin of the “Vichy France” event allows the Axis player to grapple with all of these strategic considerations, and creates an important outlet to depart from history.
As for a 50-50 roll to see which territories turn Vichy, I considered something similar, but given the “mixed bag” that it already is, and for simplicity’s sake, just went with each territory’s historical allignment. According to Wikipedia, the disposition of France’s colonies following the Armistice was basically a matter of geography. Territories that could side with Allies with little threat of repercussions did so (French Guiana being an obvious exception). Also, keeping French Equatorial Africa freehappens to serve a gameplay purpose, since changing it to Pro-Axis Neutral would give UK an easy +1 PU on round 1, from the infantry in Anglo Sudan.
Food for thought. . .