Best UK defense for Sealion 3 or 4 collaboration

Hmm, that is interesting.
Seems like Germany would be leaving way too much up to luck for us to consider this much more.

And you pointed it out - the only subs that can hit 91 are also the only ones that can hit 110.
To rely on this for even a second, Germany would be forced to devote 2 subs to 91…

Plus those odds are sorta poopy anyway.

So we’re saying the UK hit the bb off English channel instead of 106 off Canada??  Considering how important that trn attack is, I think we should have gone with the ‘its destroyed’ option.  Won’t 66 percent of the time germany will win that battle?  Also not sure how the TRN off UK went to canada if there are german subs anywhere nearby.  UK’s only destroyer had to move to sz 104 to block, hence why I was not moving to Canada as UK. (in my german opening i send 3 subs at that dd/trn combo because i want no ground units coming to London)

If UK can hold its capital even through G3 I gotta think we are adding options to their playbook.

In the scenario we’ve been going with, we sent 1 sub to 106.

This gives:
-1/3 chance for Germany to win entirely, destroying both DD and TT

• 1/3 chance for sub and DD to mutually destroy each other, leaving only TT
• 1/3 chance for sub to lose

We went with the middle option.

Yes I did think about a g2 assault, but not sure if you want USA in war that soon.

Regarding the transport protection mentioned earlier for a g3: Leave the Battleship in sz 113, with 3 fighters scrambled, I don’t care what can hit it on turn 3.

Back to G2 Sealion. Here is my thought, hit sz 110 and 111, send 3 subs at sz 109 that leaves 1 sub for 110 and 1 sub for 111 or 112. Hit 112 with BB and CA. Build transports in sz 113 you will want the 10 air units 6 on 110, 4 on 111, and maybe the bomber on 109 see below or put it on 110.

If you clear sz 109,110,111,112. UK must use 91 cruiser to either block naval bombards in 110, or they must sink the BB,CA(if CA lives) in 112 with air and block using the CA in 112.

Itally can get 3 air on 112 to clear the CA. If uk loses planes hitting the CA and BB, turn 2 they fall.
If UK moves ca to 110 to prevent bombardment, Italy hits 110 and clears, if UK scrambles, Italy removes 1 or 2 UK fighters…UK likely falls.

With 3 subs on 109, technically you clear the DD as any hits must be applied there first. If you throw a bomber at that you have 3 sub casualties and might get a round 2, potentially clearing 2 UK air units if they want the DD to live, Italy can still clear a CA,DD in 112, but you have to defend Denmark from a UK landing. Italy can still attack a DD, CA in 110 but that gets ugly and you may not want to use Italy against the UK.

With 5 transports able to hit, UK must defend UK if you lose the BB and CA and don’t like the layout and scrap Sea Lion, you now have 5 transports to use on Russia G2.

Bad thing about G2 assault, unless you build an air base on Holland on G2, and even then, the UK might have assets enough in sz92 to scuttle the German navy in 110 losing 15 transports. Edit: its only 5 lol ignore the bottom part:

The only way to block that is to have Italy land 6 units in Spain 4-5 units on S. France, (Germany would have had to take S. France with armor and mech) and permit the German armor in S. France to seize Gibraltar thus trapping the UK fleet in the Med. (This likely leaves France or Normandy: very bad if extra air makes it to London) Edit: Germany would have to take Normandy with Mech and Armor. These armor then drive south to capture Gibraltar. This then gives you a weak thrust to take Sweden, if you drop artillery from Germany in Norway turn 1 non combat. Not saying a neutral crush is ideal, but it could save 15 transports. It is probably better to lose the transports.

Better plan would be seize Normandy turn 1, build 2 air bases: Holland and Normandy, and then you might save the transports, with a BB, CA, and 6 air units to cover (hopefully) after you seize London.

@jim010:

Against 4 fht, 1 DD, 1 CA odds are 57% for UK

If the CA in sz91 was hit and killed (only successful 50%) it drops to 25%.  Could rejig G1.  Interesting.  We would need to get better odds on sz91, though, as I would not want to risk that CA surviving.

Maybe I’m missing something…  Where are the 4 fighters coming from?  Are assuming that if the CA survives that the UK purchases a CV?  I get 2 fighters from UK and 1 from Scotland.  Normandy is dead way more often than not.  Where’s the 4th?  It can’t reach from Gib, as 91-104-110-112-seazone is a suicide without a carrier purchase.  You aren’t counting the French UK based plane for some reason, are you?

I tried to point earlier back in the thread for the answer, but the short answer is you cannot put your Germ fleet in 113 because UK can block you, now you can’t invade london.  If wondering the particulars, please go a few pages back in the thread and see them.

Personally I think we are making a mistake on G1, but not a big enough deal to mean recalibrating the whole exercise.  I just think Sealion is too dependent on that darn trn off Canada and we should be killing it 95% of the time!  CA off Gib be damned, it helps UK but not as much as that trn to defend Sealion.  It also helps Germ a bit to have subs remain in the Atlantic instead of dolling them out in 1’s and 2’s.

However, based on the results so far, I stick by my earlier comment that UK is safe G3 provided Germany has suffered any air casualties throughout.

@kcdzim:

Maybe I’m missing something…  Where are the 4 fighters coming from?

Yes, we’re assuming that UK purchases a CV.
With this attack, UK is putting all its eggs into one basket - if it works, Sealion is no longer an option at all and therefore the sacrifice of those unpurchased Inf and the Fighters that die are more than worth it.

If it doesn’t, then UK’s screwed.  But the odds say that it will work with all 4 fighters.

Are we talking about a UK attack on sz113? UK doesn’t need to attack, if Germ splits their fleet to hit Scotland G2 then UK puts their fleet in sz 110.  Now Italy cannot clear the blockers thanks to UK scramblers, and Germ trns in 113 cannot reach 109, therefore now the only invasion point is English Channel and that’s going to involve Some German aircraft that won’t be used on London and London is safe….so no uk attack on sz113.

@Alsch91:

@kcdzim:

Maybe I’m missing something…  Where are the 4 fighters coming from?

Yes, we’re assuming that UK purchases a CV.
With this attack, UK is putting all its eggs into one basket - if it works, Sealion is no longer an option at all and therefore the sacrifice of those unpurchased Inf and the Fighters that die are more than worth it.

If it doesn’t, then UK’s screwed.  But the odds say that it will work with all 4 fighters.

Yeah, I wasn’t sure.  But Jim’s build on LH said 9 infantry and no mention of a UK carrier, then it went ahead with a 4 fighter attack.

@jim010:

UK

Buys
9 inf, save $1

If the CA survived in sz91 (50% of the time it will), then you can hit sz112 with 4 fht, 1 DD, 1 CA vs 1 dmg BB, 1 CA, 3 fht

Wins 57% with 1 plane

if TT in sz106 survived, bring it to sz109 to drop off the inf and tank.

All planes back to UK

If the CA didn’t survive, you can’t hit sz112.

Germany then hits London on G 2 with 5 inf, 2 art, 3 tanks, 5 fht, 5 tac, 1 bmb, 1 CA, 1 BB

Sealion succeeds 68%

If UK scrambled, then Sealion succeeds 75%

Seems risky to try and set up, but there it is.

Enjoy.

I guess he just didn’t mention the CV.  but that makes sense now.

Jimmy -

We were discussing how to properly stop a 5 TT G2 Sealion as suggested by James - if UK survives G1 with both the 109 DD and the 91 CA.

And Jim, are we going to re-examine I1 or go ahead with I2 following the UK2 you suggested?  Your UK2 looks fine to me.

@Alsch91:

Jimmy -

We were discussing how to properly stop a 5 TT G2 Sealion as suggested by James - if UK survives G1 with both the 109 DD and the 91 CA.

And Jim, are we going to re-examine I1 or go ahead with I2 following the UK2 you suggested?  Your UK2 looks fine to me.

Sorry for inserting the confusing to this UK defense thread.

Actually, I drafted a proposal, see above that permits only a CA not the DD in 109 because 3 subs should hit 1st combat round.
If the counter is a proposed UK build a CV and scramble to protect from Sea Lion, then that leaves 5 UK defenders vs 10 German land, I send 5 planes at the sea battle and 6 at the land battle in case they choose not to scramble.

5 planes (2 fighters,2 tac,1 bmb) and a BB with a carrier for 3 soak offs, vs a carrier, 5 planes and a cruiser.
2@3 4@4 vs with 9 hits to destroy vs 1@2 1@3 5@4 with 8 hits to sink I think the Germans have this battle barely.

Lets assume that UK decides not to scramble…thing is, in order to have 5 air units as a potential navy defense, 2 planes had to land on the carrier. So UK defends London with 3 planes.

On land: Germany 5 inf, 4 artillery(Germany artillery moved to W.Germany turn1) 1 arm (from Poland to w.Germ g1) 3 fighters, 3 tacticals.
vs 4 infantry 1 armor, 3 planes.
assume tactical bomber gets shot by aa as that hurts more:
1@1 8@2 4@3 2@4 16 hits needed to lose vs 4@2 1@3 3@4 8 hits needed to lose force.

Uk falls…
Risky strat as:
sz 109 may not be cleared of the DD if all 3 subs fail to hit
Germany could lose 2 aircraft if the UK fails to miss in 110 and 111 or 1 battle goes 2 rounds
Uk could build 9 land units and leave only 1 DD, 3 planes to get through (I would send 3 Italians after this aiming for UK planes since odds favor 2 itlalian hits round 1)
worse case scenario:
Germany uses 1 fighter 1 tactical 1 BB 1 carrier to fight 3 fighters 1 DD (assumes Italians missed)
that leaves 10 land, 11-2(killed round 1) - 2 (naval battle) = 7 air units (lose 1 to aa) so 6 air 10 land vs 14 land 5 air (no scramble) UK holds…it all hinges on Italy and Germany not losing any air!! ouch.
Best case:
Germany could hit London with 4 more air if Italiy clears the DD  that makes it 20 pieces (1lost to aa) vs 19. A nail biter.

Maybe it is better to sink the transport in 106 and ignore 109, thus saving the German air, reducing UK land defense. Or try a G3 assault using the BB (+scramble) and no carrier build to protect 113 on round 2. If Sea lion potential fails, you now have 5 transports to use against Russia.

@JamesAleman:

5 planes (2 fighters,2 tac,1 bmb) and a BB with a carrier for 3 soak offs, vs a carrier, 5 planes and a cruiser.
2@3 4@4 vs with 9 hits to destroy vs 1@2 1@3 5@4 with 8 hits to sink I think the Germans have this battle barely.

Germany has a Cruiser, not a Carrier.  So the offense is 3@3 4@4 with only 8 hits.  That’s awfully close.

On land: Germany 5 inf, 4 artillery(Germany artillery moved to W.Germany turn1) 1 arm (from Poland to w.Germ g1) 3 fighters, 3 tacticals.
vs 4 infantry 1 armor, 3 planes.
assume tactical bomber gets shot by aa as that hurts more:
1@1 8@2 4@3 2@4 16 hits needed to lose vs 4@2 1@3 3@4 8 hits needed to lose force.

Uk only spent 16 on the carrier, and had 12 left to buy 4 Infantry.  Also, you forgot the infantry being brought from Canada.
The defense is then
9@2 1@3 3@4 with 13 hits.
A bit stiffer than previously.

I don’t quite think this is the ideal UK defense, and we’re assuming that absolutely no planes died G1 (unlikely), but I just wanted to point out these couple small things.

Edit:
The channel battle is around 55% for Germany, I’m getting.  That’s awwwfully tight.
With a cruiser instead of the carrier you mentioned, I’m actually getting this as perfectly even.

@Alsch91:

@JamesAleman:

5 planes (2 fighters,2 tac,1 bmb) and a BB with a carrier for 3 soak offs, vs a carrier, 5 planes and a cruiser.
2@3 4@4 vs with 9 hits to destroy vs 1@2 1@3 5@4 with 8 hits to sink I think the Germans have this battle barely.

Germany has a Cruiser, not a Carrier.  So the offense is 3@3 4@4 with only 8 hits.  That’s awfully close.
True, as I was typing this from a mental image, I accidentally inserted the carrier out of habit, the cruiser is assumed lost. This point is no longer valid the battle becomes a coin toss with a slight advantage for Germany’s BB extra hit.

On land: Germany 5 inf, 4 artillery(Germany artillery moved to W.Germany turn1) 1 arm (from Poland to w.Germ g1) 3 fighters, 3 tacticals.
vs 4 infantry 1 armor, 3 planes.
assume tactical bomber gets shot by aa as that hurts more:
1@1 8@2 4@3 2@4 16 hits needed to lose vs 4@2 1@3 3@4 8 hits needed to lose force.

Uk only spent 16 on the carrier, and had 12 left to buy 4 Infantry.  Also, you forgot the infantry being brought from Canada.
The defense is then
9@2 1@3 3@4 with 13 hits.
A bit stiffer than previously.  True, although I think its 8 infantry since the transport brought the tank.

I don’t quite think this is the ideal UK defense, and we’re assuming that absolutely no planes died G1 (unlikely), but I just wanted to point out these couple small things.

Edit:
The channel battle is around 55% for Germany, I’m getting.  That’s awwwfully tight.
With a cruiser instead of the carrier you mentioned, I’m actually getting this as perfectly even.

2 great points(see red responses above), I will try not to rush my responses. This is interesting enough to tweak to see it if provides another issue to defend against. Otherwise, it may present more merit for a turn 3 invasion of UK using the German BB and scramble to protect ships in sz113.

I am struggling to open Jim’s map, just got Abattlemap yesterday. Two ideas: clear 109,110,111,112 as I suggested above (use the bomber on 111), or clear 106,110,111,112 to risk fewer planes and reduce bodies on London by 2. Alsch91 comment’s show a strong possibility of preventing a G2. This G1 build has not been tested, its just some of my theory craft for now. It seems too soft on providing predictable results, and is not likely to be relied upon. It does present a good method for mixing up play, start it as Sea Lion, then revert to Russia turn2 if outcomes don’t permit Sea Lion. I might prefer a new German standard build of 3 transports and 1 Destroyer for Russia first with a UK scare option (keeps them honest).

*There is merit to forcing the UK to build a CV and land planes on it(if this is the only defense for a G2 assault), then sink it with your German air on turn 2 while going Russia first, this clears a bit of the UK navy and air as they will likely not scramble if you place all the air against the sea and send the transports towards Russia with the BB as escort, and a Finish airbase(surprise carrier that is stationary and holds 3 planes) built upon arrival to scramble from the Russian air when you land in sz115.

Too review and stray from this topic, UK puts its eggs in one basket, they do not reinforce Africa and you then sink their navy and destroy 2 air leaving them with infantry and a couple planes while you put the hurt on Russia unexpectedly(perhaps). I like strategies that apply dual threat our gaming group uses the term implied threat for locking down multiple targets with one force. The only drawback is when they force you to pull the trigger and deploy :(

Edit: If stacking in the sea is forced UK1 and you clear the sea on turn 2 and delay/prepare, does this make a G3 capture harder or easier?

Can’t UK just put 1 ship in the english channel?  Now you’ll only be able to bring the units in Germany proper, not any of your tanks and artillery that are in France.  I might be reading those loading in hostile territories rules wrong though.

Another great response to a G2 move on London is to prepare as the US.  If you see 3+trns go down in the baltic then I think US should go 100% atlantic those first 2 rounds to build a counter invasion fleet that can recapture UK.  Germ won’t be able to take with much, and I think it helps the allies to keep Germany focused on the Atlantic during Barbarossa.