The Defense Of Britain

Thank-you.

Note that you used too many tanks, and your aircraft distribution doesn’t work, though.

I see then that 2/3 games I will have that TT in sz106, so the 2 inf, art and tank will typically be in London.

There is an even chance that you will have 1 sb left in either 110 or 111 (in sz111 you are just as likely to survive with 1 sb as no sb).  If so, it should be hit to get the sb bonus for a total of $41 in 1/4 games.

sz112

UK 1

Builds 9 inf save $1

sz106 to sz109
1 TT (load from Que 1 inf, 1 tank to London)

sz109 to sz106
1 TT

Ont to Que
1 inf, 1 art

sz109 to sz104
1 DD

sz98 to sz94
1 DD

sz98 to sz92
1 CA, 1 CV, 1 TT (load from Mal 1 inf, 1 AA to Gib)

sz98 to Gib
1 tac

Mal to Gib
1 fht

Place

London
9 inf

Collect
$36

With this opening, I’ll have 25 inf, 3 tanks, 1 art, 6 fht, 1 tac.  So what will your G2 look like?

sea.AAM

I did not use too many of anything.

You should also assume that the transport in SZ 106 is sunk.  It generally is.  If you prefer, I would be more than happy moving a second submarine over to ensure it is sunk and still have 80% odds in both SZ 110 and SZ 111 easily.  Drop 1 Infantry, 1 Armor from your lineup in England.  Drop the second two ground units as well, that second transport isn’t making landfall either.  Down 4 ground units right there.

So England is down to 20-22 ground units, 4 or 5 planes.  Germany has 40 Ground units, 11 planes, 2 shore bombardments.

@Cmdr:

I did not use too many of anything. (You only have 8 tanks, not 9.  And your plane distribution doesn’t work.)

You should also assume that the transport in SZ 106 is sunk.  It generally is (2 out of 3 games that it is alive and you consider that generally dead?).  If you prefer, I would be more than happy moving a second submarine over to ensure it is sunk and still have 80% odds in both SZ 110 and SZ 111 easily(then I can scramble in 1 of those, and you’ll lose more aircraft than I would).  Drop 1 Infantry, 1 Armor from your lineup in England.  Drop the second two ground units as well, that second transport isn’t making landfall either (prove it).  Down 4 ground units right there.

So England is down to 20-22 ground units, 4 or 5 planes.  Germany has 40 Ground units, 11 planes, 2 shore bombardments.

I gave a response based on likely odds.  Your opening allows for great variation in sz106 and sz112, and maybe in a couple others, but I can’t tell until you fix your plane distribution and the tanks.  I supplied a map with the likely outcomes.  The TT in sz106 IS a likely outcome 60% of the time.
You can show your moves based on those likely outcomes.

And where are you getting 40 ground units G3 with 9 - 10 TTs?

G4, I didn’t say G3.  19 Ground units + 1 AA Gun on G3 to Scotland, 20 Ground units from Europe + 19 Ground units from Scotland = about 40 ground units (39, unless I put a ground unit in scotland instead of the AA Gun) and I have 11 aircraft to start with. (5 Fighters, 5 Tactical Bombers, 1 Strategic Bomber.  That’s all I sent out, works great!  Do it all the time!  Never run out of pilots!)

Changing SZ 110 to 3 Fighters, 3 Tactical Bombers, ONE Submarine drops it to 80% odds and gives a second submarine for SZ 106.  Either way, that transport is TOAST!  It does not exist!  Churchill is writing letters to the families of those poor sailors who DIED off the coast of Canada!

Yes, you can move one over to SZ 106, so maybe you can get 2 units from Canada over.  Fine.  We’ll say you do.

England R1: 28 IPC
England R2: 33 IPC
England R3: 28 IPC

89 Total IPC to spend.  Roughly 30 Infantry giving you a grand total of:

35 Infantry, 1 Armor, 5 or 6 Fighters, 0 or 1 Tactical Bombers
vs
25 Infantry, 10 Artillery, 5 Armor, 5 Fighters, 5 Tactical Bombers, 1 Strategic Bomber

For argument’s sake, I’ll ran the numbers with 6 fighters, 1 tactical bomber present in England and with no defense in Scotland (walkin for Germany).

I have the battle at 99.3% Germany wins after 3.1 rounds of combat with loss of 25 Infantry, 3 Artillery, 1 Fighter, 1 Tactical OR Strategic Bomber (108-109 IPC lost) ~ Aircraft losses due to AA Gun Fire.

England wiped off the map.

Note: Anything left in SZ 110 is cleared by the Vaunted Italian Air Froce, add in 1 Cruiser, 1 Battleship bombardment
Note: Med fleet trapped by Germans prior to Round 2.

@Cmdr:

G4, I didn’t say G3.  19 Ground units + 1 AA Gun on G3 to Scotland, 20 Ground units from Europe + 19 Ground units from Scotland = about 40 ground units (39, unless I put a ground unit in scotland instead of the AA Gun) and I have 11 aircraft to start with. (5 Fighters, 5 Tactical Bombers, 1 Strategic Bomber.  That’s all I sent out, works great!  Do it all the time!  Never run out of pilots!)

And your aircraft distribution STILL doesn’t work!  AND you still used too many tanks in Europe!

Changing SZ 110 to 3 Fighters, 3 Tactical Bombers, ONE Submarine drops it to 80% odds (75%, actually, if I scramble.  And you lose teh sb and 4 planes, I lose the ships and 3 planes.)and gives a second submarine for SZ 106.  Either way, that transport is TOAST!  It does not exist! (You changed your opening.  Why don’t you give your definitive opening, and THEN we can talk, rather than you changing it when I point out there is a problem.)  Churchill is writing letters to the families of those poor sailors who DIED off the coast of Canada!

Yes, you can move one over to SZ 106, so maybe you can get 2 units from Canada over.  Fine.  We’ll say you do.

England R1: 28 IPC
England R2: 33 IPC ($36)
England R3: 28 IPC

89 Total IPC to spend.  Roughly 30 Infantry giving you a grand total of:

35 Infantry, 1 Armor, 5 or 6 Fighters, 0 or 1 Tactical Bombers
vs
25 Infantry, 10 Artillery, 5 Armor, 5 Fighters, 5 Tactical Bombers, 1 Strategic Bomber

For argument’s sake, I’ll ran the numbers with 6 fighters, 1 tactical bomber present in England and with no defense in Scotland (walkin for Germany).

I have the battle at 99.3% Germany wins after 3.1 rounds of combat with loss of 25 Infantry, 3 Artillery, 1 Fighter, 1 Tactical OR Strategic Bomber (108-109 IPC lost) ~ Aircraft losses due to AA Gun Fire.

England wiped off the map.

Note: Anything left in SZ 110 is cleared by the Vaunted Italian Air Froce, add in 1 Cruiser, 1 Battleship bombardment
Note: Med fleet trapped by Germans prior to Round 2. (how?)

I gave a map to follow throught the logical moves based on outcomes determined by odds.  A discussion on the defense of London should be based on this as every detail is important.  We can see what the board should look like and discuss it based on that, accepting odds and the potential variations if they are inportant.  If you don’t want to follow this through, but prefer abstracts, then I won’t bother wasting my time anymore.

Where are you getting 36 IPC on round 2?

My calculator gives me 80% odds in SZ 110 still and yes, you’d lose 3 planes, but each plane lost by England requires at least 1.3 German planes to balance out and that’s not going to happen either.

Also, my aircraft distribution works just fine.  Check your map.  I think you are either missing some aircraft on it, or you are not counting sea zones correctly, or something, but it works great.

I have 1 too many tanks, fine.  Drop a tank from somewhere, it doesn’t matter, I have overwhelming odds everywhere declared.  Perhaps I don’t do SZ 110, I probably will since I can easily take out 3 British fighters for a few submarines and a fighter or two of my own (yummy, british fighters are very yummy!  Equivalent to SBRing England for 16 IPC each!  Yes, they’re only worth 10 literally, but since you need 1.67 fighters of mine to balance each one you lose with England, it matters not to me!)

Close Med demonstration: Sink Destroyer, move German fleet.  Done.  Didn’t take any imagination.  Your ships are pinned.

W. France:  3 Infantry, Artillery, Armor, Fighter, Tactical (89% Odds)

Where did these planes come from?

Give me a map with your G1.  Otherwise, it is not worth commenting anymore.

@jim010:

I gave a map to follow throught the logical moves based on outcomes determined by odds.  A discussion on the defense of London should be based on this as every detail is important.  We can see what the board should look like and discuss it based on that, accepting odds and the potential variations if they are inportant.  If you don’t want to follow this through, but prefer abstracts, then I won’t bother wasting my time anymore.

awesome!  Really Jennifer is the one who complains about people doing what she is doing now!  Funny stuff.  Still I like this exercise because it shows the ligaments and tendons of the defend UK strategy.

Also, the UK Med fleet can be blocked if you do not put a ship in the sz off Spain.  Italy can sink the blocking ship and Germany can swoop down, take Gib and trap the UK fleet.

Thank-you.

This is EXACTLY why I want maps and ALL moves with odds and variations.  Why don’t we come up with THE BEST german G1, and then find THE BEST UK1 with the defense of London as priority.  We can tweak and counter tweak as needed.

Also, the UK Med fleet can be blocked if you do not put a ship in the sz off Spain.

I put a DD in sz104.

Really?  You are aware that aircraft have a movement of 4 spaces and can land on aircraft carriers.  Not that hard to figure out where things are coming from.

Okay(Old):

Germany 1:

Buy(30)

• 1 Aircraft Carrier (to give my planes somewhere legal to land)
• 2 Transports

Ground Combat:

West France: 3 INfantry, Artillery, 3 Armor

• 3 Infantry, Artillery, 3 Armor from Holland

France: 4 Infantry, 2 Artillery, 4 MI, 3 Armor, Tactical

• 3 INfantry, Artillery, 4 MI from W. Germany
• Infantry, 2 Artillery from Holland
• 2 Armor from S. Germany
• Tactical from Poland
• Fighter from Hungary

Yugoslavia: 8 Infantry, 2 Artillery, 3 ARmor

• 6 Infantry, 2 Artillery from S. Germany
• 2 Infantry, Armor from Hungary
• Armor from Romania
• Armor from Poland

Finland: 2 Infantry from Norway
Bulgaria: 2 INfantry from Romania

Naval Combat

SZ 112:

• Cruiser, Battleship from SZ 113

SZ 111:

• Submarine from SZ 124
• Submarine from SZ 118
• Fighter from Norway
• Tactical from W. Germany
• Strategic from Germany

SZ 110:

• Submarine from SZ 103
• Submarine from SZ 108
• Fighter from Holland
• 2 Fighters, 3 Tacticals from W. Germany

SZ 106:

• Submarine from SZ 117

Option 2 (New):

SZ 110 called off:

+1 Submarine to SZ 106
+1 Submarine to SZ 91
+1 Fighter, +1 Tactical to SZ 112
+2 Fighters, +2 Tacticals to SZ 111

Germany 1:

Buy(30)

• 1 Aircraft Carrier (to give my planes somewhere legal to land)
• 2 Transports

Ground Combat:

West France: 3 INfantry, Artillery, 3 Armor

• 3 Infantry, Artillery, 3 Armor from Holland

France: 4 Infantry, 2 Artillery, 4 MI, 3 Armor, Tactical

• 3 INfantry, Artillery, 4 MI from W. Germany
• Infantry, 2 Artillery from Holland
• 2 Armor from S. Germany
• Tactical from Poland
• Fighter from Hungary

Yugoslavia: 8 Infantry, 2 Artillery, 3 ARmor

• 6 Infantry, 2 Artillery from S. Germany
• 2 Infantry, Armor from Hungary
• Armor from Romania
• Armor from Poland

Finland: 2 Infantry from Norway
Bulgaria: 2 INfantry from Romania

Naval Combat

SZ 112:

• Cruiser, Battleship from SZ 113
• 2 Fighters, 2 Tacticals from W. Germany

SZ 111:

• Submarine from SZ 124
• Submarine from SZ 118
• Fighter from Norway
• Tactical from W. Germany
• Strategic from Germany
• Fighter from Holland
• Tactical from W. Germany

SZ 91:

• Submarine from SZ 103

SZ 106:

• Submarine from SZ 117
• Submarine from SZ 108

@jim010:

Also, the UK Med fleet can be blocked if you do not put a ship in the sz off Spain.

I put a DD in sz104.

Right.  I have at least 2 Aircraft from the Carrier in SZ 112 and 1 Strategic Bomber from W. Germany that can hit SZ 104.  I then NCM my fleet from SZ 112 to SZ 92 and land my fighters there and your British fleet is pinned.  Italy taking out the French and your DD blocker puts you at a disadvantage unblocking the Med.

@JimmyHat:

@jim010:

I gave a map to follow throught the logical moves based on outcomes determined by odds.  A discussion on the defense of London should be based on this as every detail is important.  We can see what the board should look like and discuss it based on that, accepting odds and the potential variations if they are inportant.  If you don’t want to follow this through, but prefer abstracts, then I won’t bother wasting my time anymore.

awesome!  Really Jennifer is the one who complains about people doing what she is doing now!  Funny stuff.  Still I like this exercise because it shows the ligaments and tendons of the defend UK strategy.

Also, the UK Med fleet can be blocked if you do not put a ship in the sz off Spain.  Italy can sink the blocking ship and Germany can swoop down, take Gib and trap the UK fleet.

You don’t need Gibraltar to do this.  You just need: Cruiser, Battleship, Loaded Carrier and you should accomplish this nicely.  England will be able to sink it, but will lose all their ability to fight in the process. (Cruiser, Carrier, half a dozen planes.)

Which option are we going with?  Map please.

Really?  You are aware that aircraft have a movement of 4 spaces and can land on aircraft carriers.  Not that hard to figure out where things are coming from.

There is a fht form Pol and a tac from Hun that don’t make ANYTHING you originally posted.  And I’d like to point out, you changed you opening again.  I noticed you removed those planes form Normandy, as they couldn’t have come from anywhere.

Edited per follow up post

I made adjustments.  IF you will note, I said I didnt have my netbook open atm and was going off the cuff with recollections on the original posting.  I misremembered tanks and had to adjust some take off/landings to accomplish the exact same thing as before, just with some modifactions.  Fighter becomes Armor, Armor becomes Tactical Bomber etc, etc.  Equivalent units.

Depends.  Are you counting on that transport in SZ 106?  Then we’ll go with option 2 to prevent you from having it.  If you are counting on that transport being dead, we can go with option 1.  Makes no never mind to me.  In the former you have 1 cruiser extra, in the latter you have 1 battleship 1 cruiser extra.  Either way, England goes down on G4.

The real problem comes in on Italy 1 and Germany 2, as they are reactive to England.  You go all out infantry, I go all out transports (that would be a total of 13 transports allowing 52 ground units to hit on G4 instead of 10 transports allowing only 40 units to hit.)  If you work to save the Med fleet, I can ease up on those and get more aircraft with Italy to keep SZ 110 cleared.  IF you just try to block with a destroyer in SZ 104, I clear it with German aircraft and non-com to block the British fleet.  I don’t have to have Gibraltar, I just have to kill British planes and you can’t break free without losing British planes, so mission accomplished!

Note, as per my SOP currently, none of these aircraft are expected to land in S. Italy in either scenario.

Scenario1.AAM
Scenario2.AAM

Too personel.  Sorry.

~ Edited.  No problem.  We’re both a little heated.

Let me look them both over, and we should pick the best one.

I prefer an opening with the least amount of variation in outcomes.

So we are doing this as a G4?  Then we should include Russian moves as well.

hmmmm, i still think we should stick to UK/Germ.  Russia is the sword of Damocles, we know its there and what its going to be trying to do.  At most I think we could add 1 ftr for I1 purchase in this case.  I am really interested to see what exactly has retreated from the Med and can hit the German fleet.  I assume we have 10+ trns in sz113 covered by 3 aircraft?

G4 is the only logical conclusion since you really need to stack Scotland to get all the units needed to be guarenteed success in England.  I suppose there is better than even odds on G3, but why risk it when you can do it on G4 and have at least a dozen units left, if not more?

Russian moves shouldn’t really play into account, since Russia cannot go until after G4.  You can demonstrate them if you like, but I am not too worried about them.

If you want too, then add a major complex to Korea and start moving tanks and MI into the Soviet territories, with units retreating out of China.  This should be enough to distract Russia and weaken them to such a point that a 100 IPC build for Germany on G5 can push them back out.