East Africa

@SuperbattleshipYamato hard to argue against any of this really. The IJN was so far gone by this point in the war that there’s not really much they could have done to salvage their situation one way or another. The bit about the allies not having many LSTs in general is something I never knew before though.

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@ABWorsham4

Curious. Would’ve been a complicated air operation, given that escorting aircraft may have had to come from carriers. Then again, the Western Allies ruled the skies.

The success would’ve depended on whether the Italian government collapsed (Mussolini and the facists overthrown) and the army would’ve defected as quickly and massive as they did following the invasion of Sicily. If a substantial number were at least disarmed, it’s quite possible enough Allied troops could’ve been ferried into Italian ports to hold against an expected German counterattack.

While I don’t think the Allies would’ve reached the Italian-Yugoslavian or Italian-German borders, they may have reached what would become the Gothic Line by early 1944. Just making probable estimates, I did not look this in detail.

@abworsham4

Unfortunately, the powers of both sides are not comparable to any of the games, so we can’t just play it out with side switching house rules (and other stuff too, but I’m just saying a new setup will need to be designed). The Soviets were even less modernised than in 1941. The real question is Germany. If Germany fights with the Soviets, (depends on what Hitler’s short term plan is) the outcome is uncertain, especially with Italy’s allegiance. It Germany fights against the Soviets, the Soviets would probably fall, especially if Japan can be convinced to jump into the war.

@Karl7:

Why wouldn’t that have worked?  How big was the Brit garrison?  I am assuming no more than a couple thousand?

Infantry
In late 1939 the pre-war garrison was reinforced up to an infantry division (commanded by Major General Sir Sanford John Palairet Scobell).[13] The original infantry garrison, plus the three brigades that reinforced the island’s regular British Army were title 1, 2, 3, and 4 Brigades; but were subsequently renumbered in 1943 as follows:[14]

231 Infantry Brigade – assigned to the Southern Sector under Brig L H Cox. HQ Southern Infantry Brigade at Luqa. Its infantry battalions were:
2nd Battalion The Devonshire Regiment
1st Battalion The Hampshire Regiment
1st Battalion The Dorsetshire Regiment
2nd Battalion The King’s Own Malta Regiment
3rd Battalion The King’s Own Malta Regiment
232 Infantry Brigade – assigned to the Northern Sector under Brig W H Oxley. HQ Northern Infantry Brigade at Melita Hotel Attard next to San Anton Gardens. Its infantry battalions were:
2nd Battalion, Royal Irish Fusiliers
8th Battalion, King’s Own Royal Regiment (Lancaster)
8th Battalion, Manchester Regiment[15]
233 Infantry Brigade – formed on 30 July 1941; assigned to the Central Sector under Brig I De La Bere. Its infantry battalions were:
11th Battalion The Lancashire Fusiliers
2nd Battalion The Queen’s Own Royal West Kent Regiment[16]
10th Battalion The King’s Own Malta Regiment
234 Infantry Brigade – assigned to the Western sector under Brig F Brittorous. Its infantry battalions were:
4th Battalion The Royal East Kent Regiment (The Buffs)
1st Battalion The Durham Light Infantry
1st Battalion The Cheshire Regiment

Malta Forces

16th Fortress Company
24th Fortress Company
173rd Tunnel Company
2 Works Company
127th Bomb Disposal Section
128th Bomb Disposal Section
Malta Command Signals, Royal Signals
8 Special Wireless Squadron
Royal Army Medical Corps
39 General Hospital RAMC
45 General Hospital RAMC
90 General Hospital RAMC
15 Field Ambulance RAMC
161 Field Ambulance RAMC
69 Field Security Section Intelligence Corps
226 Provost Company Royal Military Police
Royal Army Service Corps[23]
32 Company RASC (MT)
Malta Supply Depot RASC
Water Transport Company RASC

Most of the transports and escort ships used to ferry men and supplies were Italian ships or in some cases captured French and Greek freighters.

the German navy had very little surface forces in the Med.

What’s your web site.

@ABWorsham:

Should the Italians and Germans occupied Tunisia in 1941? This would have given more airfields to attack Malta bound convoys, provided more ports for shipping, ports that were closer to the Apennine Peninsula. The addition of these ports would forced the British to hunt for shipping west of Malta, which could have helped ease the stress on Tripoli and Benghazi convoys.

Those might have proved to be advantages to the Axis, but they might have come at the cost of negative consequences that would have offset them.  Tunisia was a Vichy-controlled territory at the time.  If the Axis had invaded Tunisia, the Vichy regime would likely have regarded this as a breach of the 1940 armistice terms with Germany, and would probably have reacted in ways Germany would not have liked.  Remember that when the Allies invaded North Africa, Germany occupied the “unoccupied” Vichy-controlled southern part of France, to which France responded with the scuttle of its fleet at Toulon to keep it out of German hands.  France might have done the same thing if the Axis had walked into Tunisia in 1941, and might even have jumped to the Allied side entirely.  So the cost-benefit analysis of an Axis invasion of Tunisia involves some tricky might-have-beens.