Think as I think! Or you are abominably wicked. You are a toad!
Wilt thou:
Think as I think?
Be a toad?
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On the map I’m looking at (on TripleA), Kazakh is west of Ssinkiang and Novosibirsk east of Ssinkiang.
I have almost never found Kazakh to be a crucial territory. It lives or dies based on the key territories. There are particular situations in which Kazakh is REALLY far more important that Ssinkiang, but I have found those to be rare in play (although perhaps not in theory).
Let us say that Germany has a fat stack in Caucasus. Will it move that fat stack to Kazakh? No, it will stay put to protect that 4 unit producing industrial complex. Kazakh will be a target of opportunity, but even then Germany will NOT take Kazakh in any real force.
Let us say that Japan has a fat stack in Persia. Will it move that fat stack to Kazakh? It is almost certain that IF Japan has a fat stack in Persia, it is because Japan has anticipated ahead of time that Germany would be taking Caucasus. Japan will therefore move to reinforce. Because of the logistic problem of moving infantry from Japan to Persia (then Caucasus or Kazakh), Japan must concentrate its forces along with Germany.
Or let us say that Japan controls Ssinkiang in force, and can take Novosibirsk and Kazakh. Will Japan choose to take Kazakh in force? I think it unlikely, because if Japan has ALSO been prosecuting a battle in the east, it is likely that Japan will control Yakut as well. The Japanese infantry from Yakut and the Japanese infantry from Ssinkiang will unite at Novosibirsk, not at Kazakh.
Kazakh IS a territory that is important for purposes of moving units through it. But I think it will be rare that Kazakh will be key rather than Novosibirsk for Japan for expert players.
When will Novosibirsk be more important? When Japan makes a strong and solid approach. Kazakh is really more important for blitz type games, which I tend not to find a lot of.
So what are examples for when Kazakh IS more important?
(One) Let us say that Japan controls Yakut and Ssinkiang with 3-4 infantry each, has more infantry behind those (say 2-3 ready to move up), and 8+ tanks that can move back and forth, plus air cover. Now there are different possibilities.
If there is a mighty force in Russia, Japan often cannot afford to consolidate in Novosibirsk. It is usually far more effective to use Yakut to threaten Evenki and Novosibirsk, while threatening Kazakh from Ssinkiang. If Japan takes Evenki/Novosibirsk/Kazakh, then Russia must respond, or lose infantry each turn. But if Russia DOES respond, it bleeds off its defensive strength and its offensive potential. Typically, the Allies have set up either a transport chain, or have flown in fighters, so the bleeding of defensive strength is NOT all that important. But bleeding off offensive potential is.
Of course, Russia does NOT have to commit its forces. Russia can pull a hit and run, trading infantry for infantry. This bleeds off the Axis infantry reserves and makes it very hard for the Axis to crack Russia’s ever-growing pile of UK/US fighters plus Russian infantry, or possibly the stack of UK/US infantry that is moving in from Archangel, etc. The thing is, IF the Axis powers cannot unite their forces, Russia can use its unified strength to pummel one then the other, while being defended by its UK and US allies. So the Axis REALLY need OVERWHELMING strength if they want to take any territory next to Moscow.
So IF Japan does NOT consolidate in Novosibirsk, where is the next best place? It is NOT Kazakh, because Kazakh is also threatened by Moscow (for the same reasons) If Japan holds tanks at Yakut (two territories away from Moscow, so out of range of Moscow infantry and artillery), or if Japan holds tanks at Ssinkiang (also two territories away from Moscow), then those Japanese tanks can STRIKE at Moscow, but are probably not very vulnerable in return (because it is VERY difficult for the US or UK to build up any real tank force in Moscow, so Russian tanks would have to do the attacking - and doing so REALLY bleeds off Russia’s defense).
So if you MUST decide between Yakut and Ssinkiang to consolidate Japanese tanks, the choice is Ssinkiang BECAUSE OF KAZAKH. And Kazakh is important, because IF Germany holds the Caucasus well (say that there are perhaps Japanese fighters there), and IF Japan cannot hold Novosibirsk in force, and IF the Germans are trying to fight off the Allied navy in the Atlantic and there is still a good-sized Luftwaffe - IF those are true, then there will be Germans in Caucasus that the Russians can’t dislodge, German fighters at Eastern Europe (because from there, they can help attack Russia and fly back, while also threatening any serious Allied penetration of either the Baltic or the Mediterranean) - IF all those are true, AND if the Germans can get to within a bit of taking Russia (say leaving just 6-7 fighters and 3 tanks there perhaps), THEN - IF the Germans can ALSO take Kazakh on the same turn and open the way for Japanese tanks to attack Russia from Ssinkiang (along with the Japanese air force), THEN it COULD be an Axis victory. But although all of those suppositions are quite possible in theory, I have never played a game like that in fact. Usually, if I have lost the Caucasus as the Allies, I control or seriously threaten Eastern Europe, in which case Germany has to consolidate its fighters at Germany (if the Atlantic is still contested) or Ukraine (if the Atlantic is hopeless). If it is Ukraine, Germany threatens Novosibirsk as much as Kazakh, if it is Germany, both Novosibirsk and Kazakh are unreachable.
(Two) Japan has an Indian industrial complex and is attacking through the south heavily. Now, attacking Novosibirsk is not so crucial; Japanese control of Persia means that Russia must bleed off its infantry to the south, or risk a German/Japanese held Caucasus, from which BOTH Germany and Japan will attack Moscow as they llike. I have also never played a game like this in fact. I will typically either stall at Ssinkiang/India against a KJF strategy, or I will not take India until J3 against a KGF strategy. Either or both prevent any industrial production at India until J5 (build industrial complex J4, produce J5), which means it’s J6 until any units move on, by which point the game is USUALLY already decided
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I believe Ssinkiang’s really only important in a KJF, and even then only if both Ssinkiang and India have industrial complexes. There are exceptions. If Japan doesn’t take China on J1, then the US can muster a worthy force in Asia. If the Allies build industrial complexes and Ssinkiang and Asia, then the Allies can try to fight off Japan’s advance. Otherwise, at BEST, the Allies can use Ssinkiang as a stall point, but it does little to slow the POWER of Japan’s advance. Ssinkiang is a point from which the Allies cannot advance.
To explain - IF China falls, US has 2 inf in Ssinkiang. The USSR has - how many - who cares. Now, if the US tries to use its 2 inf to attack the Japanese in China, that’s pretty bad odds for the US. But what if USSR attacks China? Or UK, using units quickly transported through Arch/Moscow/Novosibirsk? Well, both of the latter suit Japan just fine. If the USSR attacks China, that’s forces bled off from the Russian defense against Germany. If the UK tries the long march, the UK is not really exploiting its proximity to Europe, so that is ALSO good for the Axis - not great for Japan, perhaps, but QUITE good for Germany. And in EITHER case, China does NOT gain the Allies IPCs. If USSR takes China, that is AFTER US’s turn, so the US will not collect IPCs. And Japan will recapture China BEFORE the US can collect IPCs. Same for UK; if UK captures China, Japan immediately recaptures, and the US never sees a single IPC from it. So Japan fights and gains resources, the Allies fight and do not gain resources. It is a win-win-win for the Axis. The same is true if Russia/UK/US hold Novosibirsk and try to attack into Ssinkiang. The Japanese win logistically, the Allies lose logistically.
To advance, there must be reinforcements. But any reinforcements that ATTACK stretch the Allied lines of reinforcement further, while shortening Japan’s lines of reinforcement. So the Allies still need an edge, which usually means that the Allies need a US Pacific fleet.
So I say that Ssinkiang is a decent holding point and an important territory if Russia is trying to deny Japan IPCs in a KJF. But I say that if the Allies are NOT planning to blow Japan’s socks off, that Ssinkiang is at best just a territory that soaks up Russian reinforcements that could otherwise be used in the west against Germany, and that does not stop the Japanese attack once it becomes serious.
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Also - let me make another argument for why I think Ssinkiang not that important (UNLESS the Allies do KJF). If Russia DOES run away like mad, WILL JAPAN PURSUE EARLY? I think NOT, because if Japan DOES pursue early, Russia can often just turn around and kill the Japanese forces with little fear of reprisal. (In many games, Japan will have either attacked the UK or US navies with its air, so Japanese air will often NOT be in position to attack an inland position. This limits Japan’s reprisal to ground units on the mainland, which should be in short supply on J2, considering that Japan should only be able to move 2 units onto the mainland (assuming the Kwangtung transport is destroyed with UK fighter/carrier or carrier/destroyer, or any of various UK moves). Even if the Japanese Kwangtung transport survives, Japan will not be able to strike inland early, because its reinforcements will be on the coast - and as well, Japan will only have 1 tank on the Asian coast available to attack with on J2 (because even with a J1 industrial complex buy, placement cannot occur until J2, and even with purchased transports and tanks on J1, the units can only be transported to the Asian mainland during J2, meaning that ONLY the initial tank that Japan starts with, which can be transported to the Asian coast on J1, can be used to attack inland positions on J2).
There is the exception, of course - if Russia decides to leave 6 infantry in Burytia, Japan might try for the swift kill (along with Germany) and try to bleed off the Russian infantry / strategic bomb to cripple economy for the J4-J5 win. In that case, the Japanese fighters WILL be around the mainland. But then, Ssinkiang should fall very quickly anyways, because of the freedom 6 fighters and a bomber give Japan on J2.