In general:
If Germany goes Sea Lion but will be kicked out again while Russia hits 50+ income for a while and Japan is in no shape to get a 6VC win, the Axis should indeed wave the white flag.
Italy can be some sort of wildcard.
If Italy is able to capture the ME and Africa the game may be interesting enough to play out.
@internationalaw:
That’s good to hear, and that is what I purchased last turn as well (Inf & Art). Should I try to hold Paris?
One thing I did notice is that Russia is not replenishing their infantry which can end up hurting their progress.
Italy is always hard for me to figure out, not sure which direction to go. I think I’m going to either help in saving Paris or move some men in GSG.
Last but not least, I think I’m going to get some Japanese forces into the M.E. next turn and possibly even a IC.
Can you put an IC on newly captured territory?
On newly captured territories worth >1IPC, you can put a minor IC (never major), just not in the same turn you captured such territory (you can only build an IC in an area that you cotrolled from start of the turn).
If Russia has stopped replenishing their INF it is still bad news for Germany if they produce (lots of) ARM and MECH. It could be good news for Germany if Russia builds too much aircraft which are bad for pure defensive or offensive purposes. For example, if Germany produces 5INF + 5ART and Russia 3FTR every turn, Germany will be able to push the frontlines eastwards. Unless Russia already has too much of an arms advantage.
With Italy, think offensively early in the game, but definately defensively later on. Consider counterattacks on allied beachheads as a defensive measure also. If Italy goes on the offensive for too long, Rome usually become too easy a target (as offensives for Italy usually means building much less -but more expensive- units).