Potential Flashpoint for Internatinal Conflict

[MrMalachiCrunch]

I always wondered if the west likes the idea of a modern China, now dependent on the sea lanes.  30 years ago China had nukes and ICBMs, not many but enough.  They also were pretty much immune to the affects of non-nuclear war with 90% of their population peasants living off the land.  Now, a blockade of energy to China would affect their population and thus their internal politics.

[MrMalachiCrunch]

A rather embarrassing situation for China to be in.  I suspect the captain of the Chinese ship will find his career as a sailor will not progress further.  That tends to happen when you run your ship aground 140 KM inside the territorial waters of another nation.

The headline is “Philippines urges China to explain stranded frigate”

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-18842839

A slowly evolving escalation….or not?

[MrMalachiCrunch]

It’s not the beginning of the end nor is it the end of the beginning.  It’ not even the beginning of the beginning really but it is the start of the beginning.  It usually starts with chest puffing and the words “Shut up”.  Now that the United States is being told to Shut-Up by China I wonder where the start will lead to? Told by their mouthpiece newspaper but again, no paper in China prints what those in power wish to be printed)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-19144740

[CWO Marc]

@MrMalachiCrunch:

Told by their mouthpiece newspaper but again, no paper in China prints what those in power wish to be printed

Back when the USSR existed, there was a joke about an American tourist in Moscow asking a resident what the difference was between the newspapers Pravda (“Truth”) and Izvestia (“Information”).  The resident answered, “It’s very simple.  In Pravda, you will find much information but little truth.  In Izvestia you will find much truth but little information.”

[Clyde85]

Im just wondering out loud here, but has anyone considered just leaving this alone and letting China and the S.E. nations involved work this out themselves? Dose it really matter if China claims control over a bunch of small atolls and islands in the south China sea? What harm will it really do to the U.S. and how is ticking off what will shortly be the worlds largest economy good for the U.S. in the long term? I know there are some kind of natural resources in the area (oil and natural gas) but so what, wouldn’t the smarter long term plan be to develop more advanced forms of energy use so we no longer needed to worry about or depend on fossil fuels and leave it to the Chinese?

[MrMalachiCrunch]

Not that China IS Germany in 1936 but……there is the rule of law.  If you let a bully break the law and take by force you are hoping the bully will eventually get enough and stop taking.  It certainly did not work in 1936 and I am not sure letting a bully break the law now will help.

No, I think the rule of international law should be upheld.

[Clyde85]

@MrMalachiCrunch:

No, I think the rule of international law should be upheld.

Whose version of “international law” should be upheld then? I mean lets be honest the only reason the US is in involved with this mess is because China is one of the key players, if it wasn’t for that the US and the rest of the western press would have no interest in this. Viet-nam, Indonesia, the Philippines and other countries in the area (including Taiwan and Malaysia) all have competing and conflicting claims to these islands, if China wasn’t involved it would just be these small countries squabbling amongst themselves and no one would really care. This has nothing to do with China being a “bully”, but with the US seeing a easy to up our PR in the region and win a few brownie points with the more “bleeding heart” liberal types. Also any chance the US can get to take a “morally superior” stance against China they take because they can’t compete with them economically.

[MrMalachiCrunch]

The intertnationally recognized law of the sea would be the version to uphold I would think.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Convention_on_the_Law_of_the_Sea

Interestingly the US has not signed on to it along with about a dozen and a half countries such as:  Azerbaijan, Ecuador, Eritrea, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,  Syria, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Venezuela.  Not exactly a list I would be proud to belong to but I digress.

So China has signed onto this law along with all the other countries in the area.  Dontcha think it might be a good idea to force China to accept a law/agreement it signed up to.  Or do you think nations should just be allowed to break the law whenever they can get away with it?

I for one like the rule of law, it seems to lead to less wars.

[Clyde85]

@MrMalachiCrunch:

So China has signed onto this law along with all the other countries in the area.  Dontcha think it might be a good idea to force China to accept a law/agreement it signed up to.

Sure, but since the US hasn’t signed onto that list, isn’t it extremely hypocritical for the US to try to force the Chinese to abide by “rules” that even they themselves don’t agree with? Why don’t other nations take the lead in this one? Is Canada signed onto that list? If so why don’t they take the lead in forcing China to accept the law they signed up to?

I think this is a waste of Americas time and energy, and that we should be more focused on dealing with a laundry list of domestic problems rather the faffing about in the South China sea trying to pretend like we’re still the world police.

@MrMalachiCrunch:

Or do you think nations should just be allowed to break the law whenever they can get away with it?

I live in the USA where corporations routinely break the law, cause catastrophic economic and environmental damage, and receive little more then a slap on the wrist, So while I might not think it’s ok apparently my government dose, So what can you do?  :-(

@MrMalachiCrunch:

I for one like the rule of law, it seems to lead to less wars.

Hmmm, I don’t know about that, forcing a country to accept things rather then trying to work out a compromise would seem to lead to more conflict rather then less.

[MrMalachiCrunch]

You have checked the map of what China claims I hope?  There are areas well over 1000 miles from China’s coastline and yet less than 100 miles from somebody else’s coastline that China claims.  There is no logic to that.  It’s not like they are basing it on a 200 mile limit from a contested island.

What is Canada doing, well we signed onto the law of the sea convention.  If there is a dispute, it should go to the UN which it is, and the wrong doer if found guilty should be punished with sanctions.

The US hasn’t signed on because we all know how popular ‘submitting’ to an outside force would be in US politics.  Would it be hypocritical?  Perhaps, not that that has stopped anybody anytime when looking out for their own best interests.  It could even be “blamed” on US politics, I have the utmost belief in the ability of Americans to pull off the difficult.

Yet this same law will come into play in the near future in the Arctic determining who has the right to drill where.  It probably would be in the US’s best interest to sign up to this law.  The US will not be the toughest kid on the block for long, time to start thinking longterm.  The US will need friends in the future, this habit of going it alone is too expensive to keep up.

I’m sorry if I was suggesting it is up to the US to solve everything and pay for everything.  It would be nice however if they were not one of the 19 countries in the world who have not signed up to this.  It would be nice if the court of world opinion could decided if China was right and if the world decided to punish China for  being wrong it would be a great accomplishment if a bully didn’t win and no bloodshed occurred.

Or we could sit back and let a bully take and say “……peace with honour. I believe it is peace for our time. We thank you from the bottom of our hearts. And now I recommend you to go home and sleep quietly in your beds.”

Honestly, all things aside, do you think what China is claiming is fair to others?

[Gargantua]

I really respect the reasons Americans in general don’t like signing onto these agreements.  It makes sense to me.

These global governing bodies are a sham, and people should make every attempt to subvert them.  Local governance is superior governance in general - that’s the bottom line.

[Clyde85]

@MrMalachiCrunch:

You have checked the map of what China claims I hope?  There are areas well over 1000 miles from China’s coastline and yet less than 100 miles from somebody else’s coastline that China claims.  There is no logic to that.  It’s not like they are basing it on a 200 mile limit from a contested island.

Ok, but you do know that America controls Samoa, and Guam and both of those places are well over 4,000 miles from the US coastline, and very close the the coast lines of other countries as well right? Under that logic the US would have to give up those territories as well as Hawaii which is over 2,000 miles from the the US mainland. There is also the British position in the Falkland islands as well to think about.

@MrMalachiCrunch:

Or we could sit back and let a bully take and say “……peace with honour. I believe it is peace for our time. We thank you from the bottom of our hearts. And now I recommend you to go home and sleep quietly in your beds.”

I’m sorry but as you yourself said earlier China is NOT Germany in 1938, China is a very different animal altogether and the global conditions and geo-political setting is a far cry from that of the Munich agreement, it’s not a fair comparison in the least.

@MrMalachiCrunch:

Honestly, all things aside, do you think what China is claiming is fair to others?

Honestly, I couldn’t care less about it, in reality the Chinese claiming these islands are nothing new as the KMT claimed it in 1947 and the PRC have done so since 1949. I find it interesting that when they originally made that claim Vietnam, then only North Vietnam, recognized and supported the Chinese claims but now have changed their tune. How is China’s claim any different from the claims of Indonesia or the Vietnam? The truth is they aren’t, but because China has the economic, military, and diplomatic ability to assert their claims (finally) people get all bent out of shape. I think that this is an issue that is best left alone by the Western world and it should be left to those in that area.

[MrMalachiCrunch]

Honestly, I couldn’t care less about it

I can see that.

[MrMalachiCrunch]

A slow moving story.  Good for peace and diplomacy!

The following article moves us up to date on the conflicting territorial claims.  I still find it surreal how China is claiming territory just miles away from the Malaysian coast.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-19435346

[MrMalachiCrunch]

Related to this thread…… things heat up between Japan and China

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-19566759

[MrMalachiCrunch]

Another territorial dispute this time with Japan is starting to heat up.  I’m not sure how these two are going to iron this out, it seems both parties are pretty far apart and citizens have taken so hardline stances.

http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/World/2012/09/17/20204771.html

[Gargantua]

Malachi I read about this this morning, -front page- of my home paper, and came here to update this thread…

Looks like you beat me already!

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/china-japan-heading-towards-war-says-us-defence-secretary-leon-panetta/story-e6frg6so-1226475484583

If the Japz and Chinese go to war, I’m going to enlist on behalf of the J’s.

[Clyde85]

These Island disputes with japan have been going on for ever since the end of WW2. This is nothing new or special and they tend to flair up every few years. Japan and Korea still have these diplomatic issues with both claiming Dokdo island and they occasionally erupt in clashes between Japanese and Korean fishing vessels.  Japan and Taiwan also have similar disagreements over the rights to various islands and who can fish there, which again, flair up into violence sometimes. Its really not that big of a deal, and believe me its not that hard to get people in China calling for blood when it’s something involving Japan.

@Gargantua:

If the Japz and Chinese go to war, I’m going to enlist on behalf of the J’s.

That eager to get yourself killed?

[MrMalachiCrunch]

I agree that these disputes have been going on since before the end of WW2.  I’ve been following China closely since the Tienanmen square incident.  What IS different is the strength of the Chinese position and the degree to which the Chinese leaders benefit from this.  China’s growth of on average 10% GDP a year means there economy is about 1000% bigger than it was in 1989.

Clyde, did you read the article by chance?

China’s worst outbreak of anti-Japan sentiment in decades led to weekend demonstrations and violent attacks on well-known Japanese businesses such as car makers Toyota and Honda, forcing frightened Japanese into hiding and prompting Chinese state media to warn that trade relations could now be in jeopardy.

Worst in decades is something new in the last few decades.  I’m no chicken little sir, but I do think this is a bit more heated than most borders.

[Gargantua]

Pfftp Clyde, I ain’t gonna die. I’m just going to matter. :P