G1 SBR on UK

[Spendo02]

So with the new SBR, I thought about G1’s first move being to decimate the MIC in the UK

Germany can fly the following in for a run on the Complexes:

2 StratB (Leave Germany, Land Holland) on the MIC
2 TacB (Leave W.Germany, Land Holland) on the AB
1 TacB (Leave W.Germany, Land Holland) on the NB
1 Escort Fighter (Leave Holland, Land Holland)
2 Escort Fighter (Leave W.Germany, Land Holland)
1 Escort Fighter (Leave Norway, Land Holland)

UK Scramble 2 Fighters (UK)
France Scramble 1 Fighter (UK)

All Aircraft roll @1:
Germany takes out 1, possibly 2 interceptors?
UK/France takes out 1 Escort?

Bombing Run Commences:

MIC rolls 2 die @1
AB rolls 2 die @1
NB rolls 1 die @1

I’d give it good odds for at least one hit.  Lets say its on the NB roll, so scratch the TacB and the roll on the NB.

So now you have some problems for the UK, lets look at the StratB rolls against the MIC:

Guaranteed 4 hits against the MIC (+2 on die rolls).  Snake-Eyes gives +2 more for a total 6 counters on the UK MIC (Worst case scenario for G1).  Average sum of die roll in probability numbers is 7.  So 7 + guaranteed 4 means UK MIC has 11 counters on it and zero unit placement without paying to place.

TacB against the AB gives you just the probability of a die sum of 7.  At best, thats snake-eyes for the UK but turns the AB off to scramble for a G2/3 attack at sea without the UK spending at a minimum of 2 IPC and likely 6 IPC.

Net that means:
UK has to spend 2-6 IPC to turn on the AB for scrambles
UK has to spend an extra 2 IPC for the first unit and 1 IPC per extra unit thereafter

At a minium you cost the UK 3 IPC this turn to place 2 units.  As the standard UK purchase is infantry (9 of them), it would go like this:

(Infantry)
Unit 1 cost 5 IPC
Unit 2 cost 4 IPC
Unit 3 cost 4 IPC
Unit 4 cost 4 IPC
Unit 5 cost 4 IPC
Unit 6 cost 4 IPC
Total IPC spent is 25 IPC for 6 units versus 28 IPC for 9 units w/out the SBR.

Of course, you still have Italy that can reach the UK on their first turn as well that will compound the UK’s turn two problem even more as the average is 3.5 on a die roll if the StratB gets through a scramble of 1-2 fighters @1 and the MIC rolling @1.

If the Italian StratB gets through on T1, UK sees another (2 guaranteed plus 3.5 die total) 5 counters put on the MIC, setting it back even more for a G2 SBR.

Now if Germany buys 3 subs on T1 Plus 2 more StratB you can see where this is going to whittle down UK unit placement to basically ZERO by the end of turn 2.  4 StratB’s will flatten the MIC.  8 guaranteed, plus 4 die rolls where the probability is 7 IPC per every 2 die rolled means G2 SBR is looking at 18 hits against the MIC. If Italy gets through on T1, UK MIC is maxed out at 20 counters.  That means it is going to cost 10 IPC to place a single unit and 1 extra IPC following it.  A 13 IPC infantry is VERY appealing for G2 when G2 is going to be spending 70 IPC for a T3 invasion and no help in sight.  Likely G3/G4 is no SBR and full on assault of the UK fleet with Amphib Landing.

Thoughts?

Note: I have not looked at the circumstances surrounding the invasion of France, but I’m guessing it is still possible, but with potential heavier infantry losses?

[Young Grasshopper]

Very nice detail, I will look at it tonight when I have more time.

[Jennifer]

In regards to the circumstances of France, you don’t need a single warplane to take W. France and France. 
2 Infantry, Artillery, Armor from Holland to W. France
the rest that can reach to France from Holland, W. Germany and S. Germany.  Just off the top of my head that’s 7@1 6@2 5@3 but I may be missing one or two dice somewhere.

As for your attack on England, I am wondering how that will effect your naval battles.  The question is, if you leave a destroyer on the map, England can sink your submarines and not sustain convoy damage.  So you are risking the AA Guns, the Interceptors and losing your submarines for this attack.  The other way, you risk a few submarines and do almost the same damage as you would have when you bombed them.  (6 per submarine so 3 to SZ 106 and 8 to SZ 109 on average which is the most possible.)

On round 2 you could (and I do) attack the complex with 2 strategics (average 10-12 damage) and the airbase (3 damage) and the naval base (3 damage) bringing your 5 fighters in as escorts.  The tacticals are really there to add more punch to your attack, should England send up interceptors, you dont want to bring all 5 since now they are also going to be subject to AA Gun fire, but 1 or 2 doesn’t hurt. (*4 shots have a good chance of all being misses, when it comes to the AA Guns.)

[Spendo02]

CJ:

I agree the naval conflicts will be in question.  The subs are a preparatory purchase for the impending naval battle on G3/G4.  I had also considered purchasing a carrier and playing turtle with G1 but I didn’t look at numbers and odds.  I purely looked at it from a crush the MIC on G1 as seen below.  Also to note, the SRB says nothing about AA guns firing in the sequence as the complexes all have their own “built-in” AA guns.  This is what makes this a viable strategy.

Escorts (9d6) = 35 / 28 / 13
Interceptors (3d6) = 35 / 7 / 0.5

Germany loses 1 Escort (Fighter)
UK loses 2 Interceptors (2 Fighters)

MIC / AB (2d6) = 28 / 3
NB (1d6) = 17

Germany Loses 1 TacB

MIC takes on average 11 Tokens
NB/AB takes on average 3.5 or 6 Tokens on AB depending on what gets hit
This is assuming the hit was not on the MIC fire

Cumulative Complex odds (5d6) = 40 / 16 / 3 / 0.3 / 0.01

This further cements the loss of one of the SRB planes

UK puts on 6 Infantry at a cost of 25 IPC versus 9 Infantry at a cost of 27 IPC
AB/NB disabled

Italy SRB

Interceptor (1d6) = 17

Complex (1d6) = 16

MIC SRB = 2 + 3.5 = 5.5 more tokens

G2 SRB

No Escorts, no Interceptors (Attack UK Navy?)

MIC (4d6) = 38 / 11 / 1 / 0.7

Germany loses 1 StratB

UK MIC has 5.5 tokens on it from a potential Italian SRB + 6/8 guaranteed from 3/4 StratB + on average 10.5 - 14 more from the die rolls = in excess of 20 tokens
AB and NB still not functioning

UK has to spend 11 IPC to purchase first unit on UK2.  I forget what UK2 generally ends up with for IPC, but I don’t think its much more than low 20’s for IPC’s?  That means its best purchase is what 3-4 more infantry or a very expensive capital ship for the impending naval battle on G3?

Also realize G2 purchase is most likely the navy required to decimate UK on G3.  G2 has 70 or so IPC to spend so you can block in 2-3 Battleships and if you turtled that puts you at 3-4 Battleships the 3 Subs from G1, not to mention the UK battleships may not be repairing from initial sub attacks (I’d pick one of the fleets and send all my subs after it on G1) So you may be able to pick some of the fleet off with an initial wave of fighters on G2 or any remaining subs kicking around from G1.  Most of this is just me thinking outloud because I have yet to look at the situation Germany faces (and you may be able to just send 2 escorts instead of 4 to eliminate 2 of the fleets in the Atlantic)

[Jennifer]

I see the allure.  I am questioning if this is really better than just having the submarines in position and out of danger.  On round 2 you can SBR them in addition to your submarines.  This may be the better path - especially if your intention is not to take England!  Watch them scurry, Russia drop a whole lot of mech infantry at great cost, England retreat back to England as fast as possible, America to put ships out in preperation of liberation attempts - them smash the Russian front lines with everything you have, landing troops in the north, pushing into the east and putting a complex in Romania (so you can put out a transport and sail around their front lines.)

See where I am going?  Less risk of losses, more damage.

[Spendo02]

I wasn’t really looking at the broad picture, but a specific and extreme display of what SRB does.  I saw SRB completely shut down Germany, and quickly.

[Jennifer]

@Spendo02:

I wasn’t really looking at the broad picture, but a specific and extreme display of what SRB does.  I saw SRB completely shut down Germany, and quickly.

It can shut England down too.  I just don’t think it’s wise to give up your attacks on the fleet just so you can do maximum production damage.  Kill the fleet, on round 2 start up maximum production damage, you have 2 free rounds to smash up England and crush their hopes and dreams, you dont have to do it on Round 1 if it will cost you more in the long run than another option would.

[Spendo02]

Can’t you do both?

SZ112: 1 Cruiser (UK), 1 Cruiser (FR)
Battleship (113)
Cruiser (113)
Fighter (Slovakia)
TacB (Poland)

99% Win

SZ 109: 1 Destroyer, 1 Transport
Sub (SZ108)
Sub (SZ103)

88% Win

SZ 106: 1 Destroyer, 1 Transport
Sub (SZ117)
Sub (SZ118)

88% Win

SZ 111: 1 Battleship, 1 Destroyer
Sub (SZ124)
Fighter (Norway)
Fighter (Holland)
TacB (Germany)

92% Win

2 StratB (Germany) on MIC
2 TacB (W.Germany) on AB
2 Fighter Escort (W.Germany)

Only real change to this is you have less fighters as escorts and you go after just the AB/NB.  I’m still undecided which is more valuable to target.  NB if you don’t take out that battleship in SZ111 or that transport in SZ109.  AB if you get them all.

[Jennifer]

Spendo:  Your SZ 109 scenario is way less than 88%.  Add in 4 fighter scrambles (1 French, 3 British) from England/Scotland.    Not to be the burster of bubbles, but better that’s pointed out now than when you play a game, right?

[Spendo02]

That specific point is the reason I lose games  :?

For some reason I thought fighters could not hit subs, perhaps that was an old house rule or a relic from a prior incarnation of A&A… Or is that a result of the presence of the destroyer?

Room for adjustment then because then 111 could also potentially scramble.  I’ll have to re-look some moves then and get back to you tomorrow.

However how would multiple opportunities to scramble work out between SBR and Sea Battles?  Have to choose only 1?

[Jennifer]

Yes, the destroyer in SZ 109 is why the fighters scrambling can hit your attacking submarines.  You would have to hit in round 1 with your submarines and pray England does not get two hits in order to get that transport - that’s a risk I would not take.

[seiger83]

@Cmdr:

Yes, the destroyer in SZ 109 is why the fighters scrambling can hit your attacking submarines.  You would have to hit in round 1 with your submarines and pray England does not get two hits in order to get that transport - that’s a risk I would not take.

Actually, if you are doing a SBR on England’s Airbase and succeed, England would not be able to scramble any planes into SZ109, 110 or 111, making an attack with only subs and few planes instead of many a very viable option. The only change I would suggest is hit SZ110 instead of SZ109. Also, your Germany Tac doesnt reach SZ111 unless you plan on building a Carrier.

[Jennifer]

@seiger83:

@Cmdr:

Yes, the destroyer in SZ 109 is why the fighters scrambling can hit your attacking submarines.  You would have to hit in round 1 with your submarines and pray England does not get two hits in order to get that transport - that’s a risk I would not take.

Actually, if you are doing a SBR on England’s Airbase and succeed, England would not be able to scramble any planes into SZ109, 110 or 111, making an attack with only subs and few planes instead of many a very viable option. The only change I would suggest is hit SZ110 instead of SZ109. Also, your Germany Tac doesnt reach SZ111 unless you plan on building a Carrier.

All combat is simultanious.  Unless that suddenly changed in Global 1940 - any damage you do to Air/Naval bases won’t take effect until after all your combats are resolved and you start Non-Combat.